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Mhg:  this is going to sound horrible and defeatist but here goes —— you are focusing on a second and third round game that we have rarely made it to.  I want to get there but in order to do so, we have to trash the A10 year in and year out to get there.  If we don’t do A, how do we do B?  Horse.  Cart.

If we dominate the A10 maybe we can get out of this East Coast Bus League.  And I think we can do that with one big maybe two.

My issue remains —— why isn’t Jimmy Bell Jr. that second, dominating big?  Short of Osunniyi, he’s the biggest big in the A10.  Linssen is a change of pace.  Plus Okoro.  Jimmy Bell’s development, or lack thereof going forward, is one of next season’s keys.

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1 minute ago, Taj79 said:

Mhg:  this is going to sound horrible and defeatist but here goes —— you are focusing on a second and third round game that we have rarely made it to.  I want to get there but in order to do so, we have to trash the A10 year in and year out to get there.  If we don’t do A, how do we do B?  Horse.  Cart.

If we dominate the A10 maybe we can get out of this East Coast Bus League.  And I think we can do that with one big maybe two.

My issue remains —— why isn’t Jimmy Bell Jr. that second, dominating big?  Short of Osunniyi, he’s the biggest big in the A10.  Linssen is a change of pace.  Plus Okoro.  Jimmy Bell’s development, or lack thereof going forward, is one of next season’s keys.

I thought French was out of shape/heavy this year and it hurt his development.

I gave kudos to Bell for coming from 400lbs to 290, but I think he's gained weight and never was in close to game shape. Bell needs to be at 260 if he truly wants to be effective.

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6 minutes ago, thetorch said:

I thought French was out of shape/heavy this year and it hurt his development.

I gave kudos to Bell for coming from 400lbs to 290, but I think he's gained weight and never was in close to game shape. Bell needs to be at 260 if he truly wants to be effective.

Bell had that foot injury right before the beginning of the year, right?  I kind of give him a pass for last year and hope he's healthy / able to get into good shape for next year.

Foot injuries are super scary for big dudes & hopefully it doesn't linger.

Any kind of lower body injury really stinks for a guy like Bell who has to work like a maniac to keep off weight.  Easy to get out of shape when you're laid up.

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Here is my take on Williams....

First, let's look at some numbers....

2021....these are all  per gm...13.6pts....0.9 assts....0.8stls....1.5 TOs...1.5 reb 

Now let's look at some slashes....numbers and grades

Remember the important numbers are the 3s as over 3/4 of his shots are 3s

2021.....34.5/33.9/78.7....F-/ C+ / A....28 gm...28min/gm

2020...34.3/ 32.3/ 85.5...F- /C- / A+...15 gm...38 min/gm

2019...40.5 / 40.8 / 76.7....F- / A / B+...31 gm...23 min/gm

Now let's look at the 4 most significant games of 2021 for Oakland and Williams part in them...

Mich  25th AP poll (at the time)....20/13/100....2-10/ 1-8 / 4-4....24 min...9 pts

Purdue...1 min...no stats

OK St...46/ 50 /40....10-22/ 10-20 / 2-5....37 min...32pts

Mich St  4th AP poll...43/47/ 80....12-28/8-17/ 4-5....36 min....36 pts

So what does all this mean?

If you take away the OK St game and Mich St. games his 2 best games his 3P% drops to 31.7  or C+ to D.  Which means for 26 games he was a below average shooter taking a lot of shots.

If we look at the 3 yearly slash lines you see a dramatic drop off in 3P% after his freshman year.  Why would that be?  I think it is because the 3pt line was pushed back between his freshman and soph years.  A lot of players saw there % drop...some have recovered... some have not.  If we leave the 2 good games in ... his stats  improve from C- to C+ ...Soph to Jr year...If I plug in a forecast  for the coming year...it shows he  improves to  35.1%...but that is a far cry from 40 % plus and  it is an IF he improves...As I said above, some players can't make the extra distance adjustment.  It is promising, he has had some games in the 40 and 50 percents.

If he can develop a consistent shot this year, he could be a major contributor.

Will he do it?  That's why we play the games.

 

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Looking at his videos, I don’t think the 3 Pt line moving back was an issue. This kid can stroke it. The problem was that Oakland sucked and he probably forced way to many shots to try and stay in games. Poor shot selection lowered his %. We won’t need hero ball from him here. 

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1 hour ago, Scoop said:

Looking at his videos, I don’t think the 3 Pt line moving back was an issue. This kid can stroke it. The problem was that Oakland sucked and he probably forced way to many shots to try and stay in games. Poor shot selection lowered his %. We won’t need hero ball from him here. 

I agree he does have sweet stroke  and ...and yes, Oakland sucked in his 2 yrs there....14-19 (8-10 conf) & 12-18 (10-10).  The problem with that theory is that Clev St.  was even  worse than Oakland....13-21 (5-13) and yet that is where he had his good shooting percentage.  ...Note: both teams are Horizon Conf....After his freshman year, he still had his sweet stroke ...but the shot had to travel 1 ft  1 3/4 inches farther. The numbers went down  for the majority of players last year....and this year they came back a little.......same thing happened last time they moved the line back.  It came back a little every year  and then it was fully recovered in about 8-10  years... so the NCAA moved it back  again last year.  This time as last time some players dropped a little , some dropped a lot. Williams dropped a lot. ...another note ...while still down a lot from his good year , he came back more than the average player in 20-21.  As mentioned above the computer is projecting him to continue to improve to 35.1%. If he does that or better , he will be a help to the team. If he continues to progress at the  faster pace he did this year....he could show as high as 36.6%  and then he would be a big help.

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6 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I agree he does have sweet stroke  and ...and yes, Oakland sucked in his 2 yrs there....14-19 (8-10 conf) & 12-18 (10-10).  The problem with that theory is that Clev St.  was even  worse than Oakland....13-21 (5-13) and yet that is where he had his good shooting percentage.  ...Note: both teams are Horizon Conf....After his freshman year, he still had his sweet stroke ...but the shot had to travel 1 ft  1 3/4 inches farther. The numbers went down  for the majority of players last year....and this year they came back a little.......same thing happened last time they moved the line back.  It came back a little every year  and then it was fully recovered in about 8-10  years... so the NCAA moved it back  again last year.  This time as last time some players dropped a little , some dropped a lot. Williams dropped a lot. ...another note ...while still down a lot from his good year , he came back more than the average player in 20-21.  As mentioned above the computer is projecting him to continue to improve to 35.1%. If he does that or better , he will be a help to the team. If he continues to progress at the  faster pace he did this year....he could show as high as 36.6%  and then he would be a big help.

Good analysis Wiz, I had forgotten about the timing if the extended 3 pt line. His drop in percentage could be that, and or taking more contested shots. We don't need a guy taking contested 3s, but could use a guy who must be covered on open 3s and makes the additional pass to an open man when contested.

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Mr. Williams shot 9.9 three pointers per game and hit 33.9%.  It is unlikely he will average that many attempts with the Bills.  Perkins shot 4.8 (connecting on 37.6%), Jimerson 4.5 (39.4%), and Goodwin 3.3 (31.4%).  As a team last season we shot 18.8 three's a game with a 34.8% success rate.  Sure that number of shots can go up, and should go up, but Mr. Williams needs to be more efficient with fewer shots.

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It seems everyone agrees he needs to become more efficient including me. Here is a quote from the Oakland Post last month  after a good night ( 5 of 10 from 3 range) against Youngstown St.

“My teammates did a fantastic job getting the ball to me when I was holding in my sweet spot,” Williams said. “I decided to return the favor and try to make things happen and try to help us win.”

That statement coupled with a 0.9 season asst /gm average indicated he was " the man" whether he was having a good  or a bad night. I think with more options  at SLU (others who can shoot 3s) his attempts will decrease (he will not have 277 3pt attempts ) and his assists and 3P% will go up( he will take better shots instead of all shots). If that happens, he will be a nice fit.

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Sorry to say, but I am less than excited by this addition.  I hope TF can come up with at least one, if not two, that exceed Williams' contributions next year. 

I know a lot of Billikens.com members trust the recruiting of TF and staff, but I am starting to wonder if TF has lost his recruiting fastball.  Look at the top players from the Metro and we are missing out on most of them.  As much as we like to love our local recruits, and TJ and Yuri are nice A 10 players who I'm glad chose SLU, we need to start winning some battles for at least a few of the top players coming out of high school.  I don't want to become Transfer U.  Three of the annual, top HS programs in the area-Vashon, CBC and Chaminade- have seen all of their top 100 level players depart STL.

If we don't start winning some recruiting battles, especially in the Metro area, TF is going to lose his rep as a good recruiter and I don't want that to happen.  Locking down St Louis is not possible but it is what Travis talked about when he was hired.  While it looked good in the early days of the TF era with JG and CAG, it isn't happening anymore.

Finally, I do want to point out that I have been and hope to remain a big TF fan who wants him to succeed.

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On 4/2/2021 at 9:48 AM, willie said:

I would also like to see 2 freshman. With all the transfers out there good freshman could be ignored. 

I can’t remember what freshman class they mentioned but I’m under the impression that the staff wants to stay old on the court for the next season or two leading up to a local class 

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38 minutes ago, bauman said:

Sorry to say, but I am less than excited by this addition.  I hope TF can come up with at least one, if not two, that exceed Williams' contributions next year. 

I know a lot of Billikens.com members trust the recruiting of TF and staff, but I am starting to wonder if TF has lost his recruiting fastball.  Look at the top players from the Metro and we are missing out on most of them.  As much as we like to love our local recruits, and TJ and Yuri are nice A 10 players who I'm glad chose SLU, we need to start winning some battles for at least a few of the top players coming out of high school.  I don't want to become Transfer U.  Three of the annual, top HS programs in the area-Vashon, CBC and Chaminade- have seen all of their top 100 level players depart STL.

If we don't start winning some recruiting battles, especially in the Metro area, TF is going to lose his rep as a good recruiter and I don't want that to happen.  Locking down St Louis is not possible but it is what Travis talked about when he was hired.  While it looked good in the early days of the TF era with JG and CAG, it isn't happening anymore.

Finally, I do want to point out that I have been and hope to remain a big TF fan who wants him to succeed.

Prepare to be disappointed then.  Once in a blue moon you'll run across the Jordan Goodwin that is ride or die for his city.  The rest of the local  guys we get, for the foreseeable future, will be three star recruits.  We'll have to go on our first tournament run with those guys.  This is the same story that's played out at every mid major success story in America.  Why did you think the story here would be any different?

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17 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

Prepare to be disappointed then.  Once in a blue moon you'll run across the Jordan Goodwin that is ride or die for his city.  The rest of the local  guys we get, for the foreseeable future, will be three star recruits.  We'll have to go on our first tournament run with those guys.  This is the same story that's played out at every mid major success story in America.  Why did you think the story here would be any different?

Very true, and you’ve got to get lucky on occasion that a three-star has a late growth spurt and blossoms into a monster center, for example a David Robinson, a lightly recruited 6’4 forward who grows 7” after enrolling at Navy and becomes “The Admiral.”

Tim Duncan is another example of an unknown kid from St. Croix who is recruited by Delaware State, Providence, and Wake, chooses Wake and is to be redshirted. Guys get hurt, he’s a starter from the second game on, and by the 4th game you can see he’s going to be a monster.

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51 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

Prepare to be disappointed then.  Once in a blue moon you'll run across the Jordan Goodwin that is ride or die for his city.  The rest of the local  guys we get, for the foreseeable future, will be three star recruits.  We'll have to go on our first tournament run with those guys.  This is the same story that's played out at every mid major success story in America.  Why did you think the story here would be any different?

Then what’s the point in following the program if they decide to aim low ? SLU is a different mid major. In that they sit in fertile territory of serious talent and have the facilities and resources to get one or two high recruits. If they were a pre 1999 Gonzaga, Duquesne, or a Davidson, then I would agree. Recruiting is the only thing Travis Ford is good at IMO. If he loses that, then it’s time to part ways.

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29 minutes ago, Brighton said:

Then what’s the point in following the program if they decide to aim low ? SLU is a different mid major. In that they sit in fertile territory of serious talent and have the facilities and resources to get one or two high recruits. If they were a pre 1999 Gonzaga, Duquesne, or a Davidson, then I would agree. Recruiting is the only thing Travis Ford is good at IMO. If he loses that, then it’s time to part ways.

Every fan of a mid major program has to answer that question for themselves.  Mid major success stories are often long and boring.  In our case, we started in the basement after Crews.  We are now a top four team in the conference.  The trendline shows that we'll be a top two team in the very near future. 

Every local 3 star player in the 2022 class is seriously considering us. We've successfully landed impact transfer players since Coach Ford has been here. This is the blueprint for sustainable success at the mid major level.  Eventually long-term program success piques the interest of four star recruits.  Every mid-major fan base thinks their particular situation should be the exception to this tedious process.  

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1 hour ago, Brighton said:

Then what’s the point in following the program if they decide to aim low ? SLU is a different mid major. In that they sit in fertile territory of serious talent and have the facilities and resources to get one or two high recruits. If they were a pre 1999 Gonzaga, Duquesne, or a Davidson, then I would agree. Recruiting is the only thing Travis Ford is good at IMO. If he loses that, then it’s time to part ways.

Landing a top 50 recruit isn’t what winning the recruiting battle always looks like. Recruit players that want to be here. Winning with them will push the program forward and it will come. We’re in a better spot than we were 4 years ago. We’re losing two of the best Billikens to ever lace them up and I’m happy to see where we go next. 

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Good locals are the hardest to get - and yet the only ones we have a chance with. It’s all about winning No one grows up saying I want to be an A-10 Champ and yet non- A10 and non-buy games are few and far between. Many will come to a winning team though 

That Teddy Valentine no call hurts more than this year’s team. Same w the 34 day pause, S2, Yuri’s injuries this year and last, Thatch’s illness, Gibson’s injury last year, not post season last year...

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5 hours ago, Brighton said:

Then what’s the point in following the program if they decide to aim low ? SLU is a different mid major. In that they sit in fertile territory of serious talent and have the facilities and resources to get one or two high recruits. If they were a pre 1999 Gonzaga, Duquesne, or a Davidson, then I would agree. Recruiting is the only thing Travis Ford is good at IMO. If he loses that, then it’s time to part ways.

Travis hasn’t lost his recruiting.  I am a broken record here but the equalizing factor of college ball is experience and we were robbed of experience these past 2 years.  And success breeds more success and S2, COVID and unfortunate events hampered our success.  As Cowboy says best: it’s hard work being a Billiken fan. 
 

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We need a freshman who is good enough to compete for minutes. Perkins was the one player who could score at will.  Maybe it was Covid delay but the last season of basketball was bad because we did not steal the ball enough. We seem to be playing street ball.  Goodwin had lots of assists and rebounds but jacked up too many desperation shots as his teammates never expected him to receive a pass once he seemed committed to scoring and still Goodwin dribbled badly (unforced losses) for a ball control player. Goodwin improved in free throw shooting but was not enough to carry the team by himself.

We have had a recent history of getting shots and not finishing- this predates Ford.

We have watched a lot of ugly basketball.

I was disappointed in French, Jimmerson and Thatch for different reasons. French did not add anything new to his game and defenses figured out how to stop him. I don’t think the team found Jimmerson enough. Maybe having Williams Perkins and Jimmerson in the game at same time will spread defenses. Our ball movement settled in to finding Goodwin and French too often. We looked outclassed and out hustled and I just thought the talent level was overhyped or did not play to expectations.

I thought Thatch had not recovered to have the Goodwin level of energy he flashed in Freshman year. I hope he fully comes back healthy.

I really like Ford but I think he did not get the team to play well with 7-8 guys helping each other. I am excited to have Javonte back, I thought Yuri was much improved. Size and athletic dominance in bigs next year may improve. Having huge guys on bench without playing time puzzles me.

I thought Hargrove was improved and look forward to having better shooters get more minutes. Unfortunately, Lintzsen (Sp?) was the most consistent new guy and his minutes were instead of the performance we expected from French. I give Bell a pass because of injury- he needs to play more.

 

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So, on Rashad Williams, I have gone back and forth on this addition. Ultimately, I am excited. We add someone who has a lot of experience having to move to get open. Having to shoot while being harassed and guarded heavily. This year, we had phenomenal shooting when teams did not guard us, but we disappeared (well somewhat) when we got into conference and the average A10 defense. Williams can help us. He may not have a perfect average, but he will not go into a shell against SBU style defense. Also, with the attention our other players bring, he could have a monster year. For example, are teams gonna have a third 3pt defender, when the first two cover GJ and JP? Or, on the other end, is GJ going to be able to fly under the radar and destroy some teams?

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5 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said:

So, on Rashad Williams, I have gone back and forth on this addition. Ultimately, I am excited. We add someone who has a lot of experience having to move to get open. Having to shoot while being harassed and guarded heavily. This year, we had phenomenal shooting when teams did not guard us, but we disappeared (well somewhat) when we got into conference and the average A10 defense. Williams can help us. He may not have a perfect average, but he will not go into a shell against SBU style defense. Also, with the attention our other players bring, he could have a monster year. For example, are teams gonna have a third 3pt defender, when the first two cover GJ and JP? Or, on the other end, is GJ going to be able to fly under the radar and destroy some teams?

He seems like a tay weaver type to me.  Experienced transfer to come in off the bench and has the ability to knock down some shots.  But not a lot of minutes.

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Just now, Dr. Holly Hills said:

He seems like a tay weaver type to me.  Experienced transfer to come in off the bench and has the ability to knock down some shots.  But not a lot of minutes.

I think a lot depends on who else we bring in. There’s a *potential* that even after tonight’s news, we could still have 3 open scholarships left.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Holly Hills said:

He seems like a tay weaver type to me.  Experienced transfer to come in off the bench and has the ability to knock down some shots.  But not a lot of minutes.

He is kind of this strange combination of Weaver and Isabell, when he was at Drexel, in the best way possible. I think he is going to be a very good player here, and excel as an instant offense player. 

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