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The Wiz

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Everything posted by The Wiz

  1. Tough loss. We did pretty much what we needed to do to win...Pretty much but not all. From the original post in this thread ...WWN2D2W Our TO target is 11....We made 11...check 48 / 39 / 77.....49/42/ 73 ...we were off by 1 FT....check we are one of the better 3P shooting teams ...they are one of the worst defending the 3...we need that 38% from the arc ....That should have read 39% from the projected slash...no matter... we made 42%...check Looks pretty good so far..so what went wrong? Out rebound them ...This was an issue in the last game with BSU ...we are clearly the better offensive team. But if we let them out rebound us , they get 2nd and 3rd chances and we lose our offensive edge. Out rebound them by 4+...And this was it...a fail that cost us the game...They out rebounded us and like I said in this phrase ...we lost our offensive advantage. We shot a 49% FG %...They shot 48.4% FG% ...They made 7 extra shots on 15 extra FGA...many of those were on 2nd chance shots as a result of snagging extra rebounds. Bottom line....We were leading the with 6:07 left in the game. 2 1/2 mins later we were down 9. We played winning basketball for 37 1/2 mins. The problem was it was a 40 min game. I stand by my original statement... we are the better team...but we gave them a 2nd chance (rebound) to win.
  2. Official injury report-Dec 4...Listed dates after injury are the last reports on it ...St. B Lofton....Questionable for Sat-Ankle 12/3...Lofton exited previous game with a left ankle injury...and it is uncertain whether he will play against Buff Brown....Probable for Sat-undisclosed injury 12/3...He missed the previous contest with an unknown issue but is likely to face Buff Mellouk....Out indefinitely- undisclosed 11/27...He is idle due to an undisclosed injury and there is no timetable for his return
  3. Good question. The simple answer is might be skewed a little but the model does take into account the SOS and it is able to make a determination even on an all cupcake schedule of 8 games. The deeper answer is it is similar to the parlor game 6 degrees of Kevin Bacon ...a concept that is based on the theory that any 2 people on Earth are 6 or fewer acquaintance links apart. In the case of D1 teams , you are only talking about 357 other teams vs 7 billion people on Earth in the 6 degree game so the links are much tighter. On the board , you always see posters who say they want to see all our opponents win the rest of their games. This does help us but the reality is all games affect us because of the linking and even on a night when none of our opponents play our number are affected. Basically, though, the closer the link, the more affect. Eight is a minimum sample size. Ideally, as the season goes on, I become more accurate. I would rather have 20 games than 8 but 8 is the minimum to be able to make good calls from real data. Before 8 games, I use a Bayesian predictive model which I think has been pretty good over the years. As we move through the 8 games , I mix in real data. Hope that answers your question.
  4. What a great game against BSU. The Bills grind out a win in a tough venue against a good team. In the preseason , I had the game as a question mark. That means I had it as even. A come from behind win and no fold at the end ... a sign that the team is maturing. If you need more, check out my post game analysis in the spread thread. This brings us to game 8 (of D1 games). This is an important game. ..For the Bills, it is a quality opponent. For me, the 8th game represents the point in the season where the sample size is large enough to be able to say ...Yes , we are for real...the data shows we are really an A- team and are on track for a Dance bid. But first we have to win. UAB is another tough challenge.. The bad news is they are better than Boise. The good news is we are still the better team. But there are a few potholes along the way. The report card looks pretty good especially on the offensive side. ... Our first Offensive honor roll in a few years....straight A's. Let's see what the report card looks like for this game. ..........................SLU...........................UAB..........................SLU...........................UAB .......................................OFF..................................................................DEF............. PPG..................A+ 6th ITN...................A-............................C+.................................B FG%.................A-..................................B..............................C+...............................C+ 3Pt%...............A-..................................C-.............................C+.................................F FT%.................A-........ .........................C............................................. Reb.................A-...................................C...............................A..................................C OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Off...PPG....3P%...FT%.......Def....3P%...Reb Down....Off...none...Def....PPG...FG% Team FTs... Top 100 Teams ITN FTM....The Bills...1st FTA....The Bills....1st FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...1st FTA / Offensive play...The Bills...2nd Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm SLU Assts...Collins...7th...down Stls......Collins....37th....down UAB Reb...Jemison...79th FG%...Jemison...63rd Stls...Jackson...10th...Ertel...37th...Walker...82nd Assts...Walker 52nd FT%...Ertel...1st(22 way tie)..100%...13 straight You will notice I have added a new section to the report card. Something I rarely do but then again this is a rare event. Enjoy. Wash St which had been the FT leader had a bad night at the charity stripe so we are now king of the FTs. WWN2D2W 48 / 39 / 77...do it....Out rebound them ...This was an issue in the last game with BSU ...we are clearly the better offensive team. But if we let them out rebound us , they get 2nd and 3rd chances and we lose our offensive edge. Out rebound them by 4+ ...Two keys to the game...Key 1...3P shooting...We need to beat them here....we are one of the better 3P shooting teams ...they are one of the worst defending the 3...we need that 38% from the arc....Key 2...Protect the ball...They are 3rd ITN in opp TOs....20.3/ gm...if we give up 20 TOs we lose...part of this equation is steals ...they have 3 guys in the top 100 in steals... 11.7/gm...Our TO target is 11...we will be in good shape if we can keep to 11 TOs. Bottom line....If we can protect the ball and make a few 3s we can show that we are for real.....Bring the buckets and put out the Blazers.
  5. My stats are a little different....I think Stu and possibly Bills by 40 are using NCAA numbers which count Harris Stowe....which totals 8 games. That is fine but I can't do that ....it will mess up my forecasting model....D1 teams only playing D1 teams. So unlike the NCAA and others who have 8 games...I only have 7. I will give you what I have and my figures are not raw...so it will not matter how many games anyone has played. I think these FT stats are a little more interesting too. These are the tops ITN FTM/gm 1. Wash St. 21.5 2. The Bills 21.4 FTA/ gm 1. Wash St. 28.2 2. The Bills 28.0 FTM/ 100 possession 1. Wash St. 29.651 2. The Bills 28.281 FTA/ Off play 1. Wash St. 33.5% 2. Colo 32.3% 3. The Bills 32.0 FT%.....We are 48th at 76.5% I think if you look at the numbers that matter all together and not compare apples and oranges...less than D1 teams and comparing raw numbers using different game totals even if they are all D1....you come to the conclusion that we are 2nd ITN in FTs
  6. This was a satisfying game...For the team, for the fans and for me as a forecaster. For me, a successful call is when a good part of the game, especially the 2nd half, is hanging around my forecasted spread. That certainly was true this game. It is a good call because it shows the computer model is right and the numbers are working. What was really gratifying, was the "experts" ...in sheep fashion ...all picked BSU to win. I ran the model a few times for this game using extra data because I knew it was going to be close and that everyone else was going to pick BSU...so I wanted to make sure I got it right. At least for tonight, @joe_davola ..his post above is correct....Nobody beats The Wiz...lol. Let's get down to the numbers ....target slash....48/38/75...actual...46/ 46/ 88...that translates into 1 extra 3...4 extra FTs and 1 less 2ptM...equals an extra 5 pts...had I made the FT line 80% that would have made the spread 3pts for the Bills...but we can't be greedy...let's take the win and get out of town. In terms of the dynamics of the game , I had mentioned this was going to be a slow game for the purpose of disruption and destroying the rhythm . I had figured a low scoring game would be the way it would go...but once they started hot and we were cold that changed things and opened the game up. When the game was 11-0, I knew we would come back. While some were thinking this was going to be a repeat of Memphis ...there was one big difference...BSU ain't no Memphis. In the end it was a slow and disruptive game...that was caused by a huge number of fouls. Key to the game...While everyone knows the FTs won it for us ...I think the key was rebounding....had we used that key, we could have opened the door to a blowout. In the target forecast above, I had us winning the Reb battle by 6, instead we lost by 5 a difference of 11 rebs....most of those rebs were used for 2nd & 3rd shots. So if were are better than them....How did they stay neck and neck with us....they had an extra 13 FGA...or to quote the @joe_davola appliance Wiz..."How do we do it? We do it on volume" BSU had an extra 12 3PtA...yet only made 2 more 3s than us. So in a sense we kept them in the game. Ah... but then there were the FTs...coming into this game we were 9th ITN in FTM....That ranking should be going up...what a turn around from the last few years. A concern I had going into this game were the TOs....target 11...actual 12...a nice drop from the 16 of the last 2 games....had we had another 4 TOs , this would have been a loss.....let's keep that 11 target going. Yes a satisfying win. Overall it solidifies our A- ranking and moves us out of the NCAA cloud of funny business for bid selections and closer to a solid choice. I would like to leave you with a pregame quote to the TV announcers from the BSU coach....When they asked him about the poor free throw shooting this year ...his one word quote was "fixed".....On my stat sheet I have 46% from the charity stripe....Hmm...maybe the coach was thinking of his dog.
  7. Parr of it is a long ride to BSU...they don't call it Extra Mile Arena foe nothing . And while Boise isn't Denver it is more than a half mile high... a difference maker...no wonder they want to slow things down. Extra Mile is also a concert venue....not the best site lines for bball. Finally, when it comes to sports BSU is the only game in town. ...seats 12000+...usually have decent crowds. Nothing here we can't overcome with better shooting.
  8. We are the better team but that doesn't mean we automatically win. As I mentioned above this will be a strange game. Normally stats like these and we win by 6. Besides the difficult venue, they will try to mess with us. This game will not be about their hot shooter or the magical defense that stops us. This will be about a game in slow motion. A game meant disrupt us and throw our rhythm off. Cal St had little chance to win the other night because they aren't that good. aren't that good. But they turned the tables on BSU by super slowing it down and it worked. We will not have to do that because we are not over marched. We need to make shots and avoid TOs...Those things are magnified in a low scoring game....We need to get the lead and try to open it up a bit....a slow low scoring game doesn't help you in the 4th quarter if you are down. Play Billiken ball and we win.
  9. If played today at the Fetz...The Bills over Dayton by 11 If they played Belmont today at the Fetz...The Bills over Belmont by 7. Damn we're good.
  10. This game is not what it appears to be. This will be a strange game. At the beginning of the season, I had this game as a question mark. That means to close to call. In recent days , I had the edge to Boise but after last night's upset to Cal St-Bak the edge swung back to The Bills. SLU comes into this game continuing to hold it's A- grade which keeps us on track for a Dance bid. BSU is a B team with a big home field advantage....BSU is one of the tougher D1 venues to play in. So what are we up against here besides home field advantage....BSU has one of the worst offenses in D1...I would say this is one of the worst offenses we have faced in years....not the worst team but one of the worst offenses. So this must mean that BSU has a great defense...Nope ..just average. Let's review ...B team vs A- ..Bad offense and average defense. So this should be a piece of cake....not quite. BSU is 16th ITN in PPG allowed. BSU can't beat you with their offense and really can't beat you with their D either. So what's going on ? They slow the game down...really slow. The perfect game for BSU is less than 120 pts. A target score for them every game would be a 61-56 win. The most pts they have allowed in a game this season was against St. B in a 67-61 loss. That game alone should be a wake up call for the Bills ...not a team to take lightly. Let's also take a look at last night's game as it relates to us. CSU came in as a heavy underdog...a D team facing a B team. They turned the tables on the Broncos by slowing the game down even more and wound up upsetting BSU 44-39. There is a lesson to be learned here but first let's take a look at the report card. ..........................SLU...............................BSU..........................SLU...........................BSU ..........................................OFF..................................................................DEF............. PPG...................A+ 7th ITN................F................................B.................................A+...16th ITN FG%..................A-..............................F+..............................B-...............................C 3Pt%................B+...............................F...............................C...................................C+ FT%.................B+........ ......................F-...7th WITH............................................. Reb.................A-................................C-.............................B+..............................C+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Off...FT%.....Def....3P%...Reb Down....Off...none...Def....PPG...FG% Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm SLU Assts...Collins...3rd...unch Stls......Collins....26th....down Blks...Okoro......79th...down FG%....Linssen....77th...up Double-Double....Hargrove...33th....down BSU Rebs...Armus...71st Our offense continues strong...Our defense is above average. WWN2D2W We need to do what we do ...play our game ...make our target numbers....target slash 48/38/ 75....TO target 11....Rebs...win the battle by 6...hold their top 3 guys to 25 pts. Bottom line...Make our numbers...if we do that, we win no matter what the speed....If we can speed it up (score 70+) we can win big. Their plan is to slow it down and hope we screw it up. Cal St proved yesterday, you can win in slow motion if you take care of business.
  11. I am waiting for the data from the Boise / Cal-St game which will be played tonight. I can tell you this ....Boise is a difficult place to play....one of the toughest venues in D-1. I will probably favor Boise in a close game.
  12. This is more in line with what I am showing. I have us at 44...A- and in line for a Dance bid. The problem is that we fall into the NCAA cloud. ...that place where all the numbers are thrown out and "they" decide if we are "worthy". Think last year. The good news is there is a long way to go and we have many chances to solidify our position. The next 2 games will be important as far as stats and rankings are concerned in my model. In 2 games , I will have a big enough sample size to verify the trends that are now showing. If we can stay at A-....read that as win the next 2 games.. we will then be validated as a real contender...a team to beat. After that , the next marker is 5 additional games (end of OOC ) At that point the model will start to narrow our upside and downside and start to lock us in for a bid if we are worthy. I would like to see us move up a couple of places to avoid the "cloud hell" we went through at the end of last season.
  13. Another good game....some may disagree with this assessment, but my criteria may differ from theirs. Let's start with the spread...I was pleased to see that the Bills lead was at or around 7 for nearly the entire 2nd half. It shows my metrics are rounding into shape. When I saw that 3pt stuff from the "experts" I knew there was going to be some easy money made on this game. So what was the difference in this game? Let's review the WWN2D2W to get a better answer... Contain Kensmil...hold him to 14 pts.....Pass...held him to 11...excellent...This made a difference TOs will be important in this game because they are susceptible to them and we need to cut down on them. We need to win the TO battle... Neutral.....I mention in the original post in this thread that we needed to get TOs down... We didn't ...For the 2nd night in a row we had 16 TOs and for the 2nd night in a row it didn't matter because for the 2nd night in a row our opposition had 16 TOs...another wash game...TOs again, no effect. out rebound them...Pass ...36-28...excellent ...this made a difference Our target slash ...50/40/ 80...I am going to give this a pass ...while at first blush the numbers seem to be off... on closer inspection we pass...We miss the exact slash by the following ...we needed 1 more 2PM.... 1 more 3PM and we made 1 extra FT....so we were 1 off the entire slash...that's a pass they can't shoot FTs...think F-. ... FTs could be a deciding factor in this game....this is a pass but not as big a pass as you may think...First, we made an extra 11 FTs not because of FT% but because they were hacking us heavy and we went to the line extra times. The reason it was not as significant was because they shot much better than usual...74% vs low 60s plus they too had a few extra shots...meant an extra 6pts....a net gain of 5 FT pts for the Bills...still significant. The winner for most significant is ...3P defense...A weak spot for us this season ...it was good tonight....2-12 =16.7%...this cost the lumberjacks 9 pts as they are a decent shooting 3 team. One last observation...We do need to get the TOs down...the last 2 nights it didn't matter but if they stay up this will come back to bite us. Our target should be 11 /gm,,,,11 instead of 16 could make a difference of 10 pts / gm Bottom line...another good game...another learning experience....presses , zone D , double teaming...and we are learning these lessons while gaining wins not to mention the experience players are picking up ....plus throw in some additional gelling and it could be a special season.
  14. Sorry, this will be a shortened report due to the short turn around time. . Not enough time to do a full report on a work day. Good game against ISU....we did pretty much what we were supposed to do...check the ISU spread thread for the game wrap. The Bills continue to hold onto the A- grade which is a good thing....shows that we are on target for an NCAA bid. The next 3 games will complete the data set necessary to verify that bid projection....Translation.... 3 more games to find out if we are for real. SF Austin is a B- team with above average offense ...they have a defense but would rather focus on the offense. Another team that will try to out score us by playing only offense. They have a more spread out offense than our last 2 opponents ...that is their scoring is not concentrated in just 2 or 3 players. They are led by Kensmil who is their big scorer. WWN2D2W....Contain Kensmil...hold him to 14 pts.....no more than 2 players in double figures...TOs will be important in this game because they are susceptible to them and we need to cut down on them. We need to win the TO battle....have at least 2 TOs less than SFA. ...out rebound them ...Our target slash ...50/40/ 80 and last but not least they can't shoot FTs...think F-. ... FTs could be a deciding factor in this game. Bottom line... SFA is a good team that we can and should beat....Let's cut the Lumberjacks down to size...A win would be a Super Fine Achievement.
  15. This was a good win....Why? Because mostly things went as they were supposed to go. For those who have followed the spread threads this year you notice that I have put the forecasted spread at 50 / 40 / 80...I had lowered the FT shooting for this game because our FT shooting had cooled recently. And sure enough, we came in at 50/40/80 ...exactly. This slash line is the holy grail for the Bills....We do that every game and we will win most of them. You will also remember from the original post in this thread of the importance of holding their top 3 guys to 44 pts...they came in at 46 pts combined ..another good hit. We were supposed to dominate in rebs...we did 33-21.. And even the forecast of them fading came to pass. With a little over 7 min left, the game was tied at 60 . In the next 2 min we opened up an 11 pt lead. At that pt we decided to run out the clock....giving up 5 pts for the win instead of adding 5 pts to the spread. However, it wasn't just letting the clock run down that cost us the spread ...they were a couple of things that were off that lead to the spread miss. Let's take one last look at the slash.... 50/ 40/ 80....SLU 48/ 38/ 73...ISU. They almost matched our slash...slightly below us in every box. What does that mean? It means 1 extra 2PtM...same number of 3s made...and 4 extra FTs...total 6 pts...the difference in the game. They were not supposed to shoot as well as us but they did ...too many open shots and easy ones....Defense was a tossup...we contained their big 3 but gave away a few baskets. The irony is the one area they were supposed to beat us ( FTs) is the one we beat them by the most. But none of this really explains the missed spread. Here is what happened....The computer forecasted 11 TOs...we had 16...way too many.... Those 5 extra TOs cost us 10 pts..... with the winning margin of 6pts that totals 16 pts ...Bingo ...we make the spread. One of the things that saved us was ISU also had 16 TOs which was forecast. Bottom line ...As I said above, there was a lot to like in this game...How many remember the free lemonade when the Bills scored 80 pts....Lemon-eighty. Funny they didn't do that this year...they must have known. This was another growth game. What did we learn? That even if you have a good game, you can screw it up with too many TOs. Our TO numbers have been pretty good this year...so we will file this under a little careless and an easy fix. Next up is SFA...Where a win would be a Super Fine Accomplishment.
  16. We are good enough to beat them in a hotel bathroom.
  17. I checked the Bills injury report for any last minute additions...didn't see any. Of course the report wouldn't list ice cubes or low hanging chandeliers. Could just be some nervous gamblers who are looking at our board and reading the wrong posters. In any case, I am staying with 15. ISU is not as good as Mercer.
  18. Nice post. In order to address your point, let's look at the last game with Mercer....a terrible shooting FT team....Yet against us, instead of shooting low to mid 60% area, they shot 80%. Yet that extraordinary performance yielded them 2 extra pts over what was expected and made no difference. FT shooting will only make a difference in a close game. In ISU's case, they take a lot of FT /gm...29. When you play poor teams you get fouled more. The poor teams can't defend the dominant team so they tend to foul more. I have already baked in 76.9% FT in the model. We won't give up 29 FTA, but for this example let's say we do....let's also say that ISU does the impossible and shoots 100%. We give up an extra 7 pts and we still win easily. Imagine that FT shooting is a knife....and that FG% and 3P% are guns. To quote Indiana Jones....Never bring a knife to a gun fight. If we lose this game, it won't be because of FT shooting...it will be because we didn't bring ammo for the guns. Here is hoping that The Bills bring out the big guns.
  19. A nice bounce back game against Mercer which went as expected. A good team with little depth wears down as the game proceeds. For more info on what happened , check the Mercer spread thread. So if you liked that last game , you may like this one too.....some similarities to the Mer game...another team with very little depth and that is top heavy. But there are some differences. Mer was a B- team ...ISU comes in as a D+. ISU is not a cupcake team but still below average. Let's call them a muffin. ISU can score though ...They are B+ in PPG with 2 top scorers ...one in the top 10 another in the top 100. So what are we missing here? Let's look at a stat that doesn't show up in the report card.....FGA...ISU is A rated in this category...25th ITN....The Bills meanwhile are slightly ahead with an A+...15th ITN. Here is the catch and one of the keys to the game...ISU can't shoot.....ISU FG% grades out at D while SLU comes in at A-. But you say... they score lots of points (B+ ) The answer is ...eventually....on 2nd and 3rd attempts. Do you remember on the Mercer game , I forecasted that Mercer's 2 top guys would score about 50% of the pts and they came in on target. This will be somewhat the same with a twist...3 of their players score 70% of the pts. This is how the game will go... Their 2 starting guards are Reeves and Freeman...They will do most of the shooting...anything they miss will be rebounded by Chatman and then tipped or put back in. The game plan is to score as many points as they can...that's it....The defensive plan is we will score more points than the Bills so we won't have to play defense.. Will that work?...15 pts say no. Time to look at the report card..... ..........................SLU...............................ISU..........................SLU...........................ISU ..........................................OFF..................................................................DEF............. PPG...................A+ 5th ITN................B+.............................B+................................F-...8th WITN FG%..................A-...............................D..............................B+.................................C- 3Pt%................B+................................D+...........................C...................................D- FT%.................C+........ ......................A-...................................................................... Reb.................A-.................................B...............................B+.................................F-..15th WITN OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Off...PPG,,,FG%...3P%.......Def...PPG...FG%...3P% Down....Off....FT%....Reb Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm Assts...Collins...3rd...up Stls......Collins....19th....up Rebs....Okoro....56th....down Blks...Okoro......76th FG%....Linssen....100th Double-Double....Hargrove...17th....up ISU PPG......Reeves....9th......Chatman.....69th Reb.....Chatman...26th Blks....Chatman...36th WWN2D2W....Same thing as last time...wear them down and build a lead as the game goes on. Contain their big 3...Reeves, Freeman and Chatman...hold them to 44 pts. ...Let's shoot like we did last time....target slash 50/ 40/ 75....Out rebound them....they will only be rebounding on their end looking for 2nd chance shots...take those away....Don't leave them open...those guards can make shots if left alone...play D like last time. What can go wrong?...If we play their game of offense only and/or we go cold shooting. Bottom line....If The Bills play their hand right, then the ISU Cards will be the low hand. Ir las cuentas (Go Bills)
  20. This game went pretty much the way I expected it would. Our slash was 51/45.5/ 69.2.... Forecast slash...50/40/ 80...right on target for FG% and 3P%. We fell 3 pts short on the FT shooting but better than last time and no harm done. Fixing the FG% and 3P% was more important at this juncture and we seem to be on track . I made a real point in this thread of stopping Haase and Alvarez..."hold them to 30pts combined and we win"....they score 28pts and we win. In explaining how the computer saw the game, I mentioned that Haase and Alvarez would score half the points in the game which in this case would be 29 pts ...1 pt off. And finally, the key to the game was wearing them down because of their lack of depth...The longer the game went the bigger our lead would be. It pretty much happened that way. Bottom line...the team is still growing and still gelling.....One step at a time.
  21. This is probably a good place to discuss some computer methodology.....how the computer thinks...the numbers behind the numbers. I don't usually go into the details because ...well because most people are just interested in the spread.. "I don't care what's in the pie or how it was made...just cut me a slice". We are far enough into this thread where only the true basketball fans are reading so I will go into the minutiae a bit more. This game is a good one to go into a little deeper because it is a little simpler than most. While the total number of variables remain the same as all other games there are a few that standout and carry a little more weight because of the way Mercer plays. The fact that they use only 6 players plus the fact that 2 of them score most of the points makes them a little different than most teams. The top scorers will be Haase and either Alvarez or Glisson. ...Note here Glisson has not played the last 2 games though he is not listed as injured. The computer figures that Haase and one of the other 2 will be the top scorers. The model calculates that Haase and one of the other 2 will score 37 pts against us and will account for 50% of Mercer's pts. That means the model is figuring that Mercer will score 74 against The Bills and the Bills will put up 86 pts. If we can hold their 2 leading scorers to 30 or less , it could turn into a blowout. (20+ pts) On the other side of the coin if their top 2 score 43+ combined, it will be an even game. Again if Glisson doesn't play or has limited minutes it will be a blow to a team with limited depth. We need to try and contain Haase. He can shoot from anywhere on the floor. Glisson is a 3 pt shooter. If we defend against him , he will pass on some shots and keep his numbers down. Alvarez is also a 3 pt shooter BUT not a 3pt maker. He will switch to 2s. Bottom line ...this should be a team we can wear down....another reason to play tight defense. Hold the top 2 to under 30 combined and the game is ours.
  22. After one of the worst shooting night's in Bills history, we emerge in a fairly decent place. Coming into the Mem game, both teams were A-. With the win, Memphis moves up to A. After the game , the computer see us being beaten by an A team and doesn't punish us. So the good news is we remain an A- team which is important. A- teams and above get NCAA bids (90%). Yes, it is early and there are a lot of games to go but for now I like where we are. We will know a lot more about where we are headed on Dec 5th after the UAB game.(8th game) If we are still A- on that day( large enough sample size) it will be a confirmation that we are for real and could still have a special season. First order of business is to get back on the winning track. This Mer game would have been a good game to play after the EIU win...a nice step up in competition to prepare for Mem. But we have to play the cards as they are dealt. Mem was a good learning experience that we can grow from. It will prepare us better for the upcoming competitions in OOC and A-10. There are no more cupcakes on the schedule. Mercer comes into this game as a B- team. At first glance they seem like a very ordinary team....one that would grade out at C- to D+. BUT...they have this one player ...Haase...who leads the team in a bunch of categories...PPG...19.7(65th ITN)....a staggering 61.1% from the arc, FG% and stls to name a few. So let see what the report card looks like....not as good as last time but still pretty decent ..........................SLU...............................Mer...............................SLU.......................................Mer ..........................................OFF..........................................................................DEF............... PPG......................A+ 7th ITN................C.................................B..............................................C- FG%......................B+...............................B-..............................B..............................................D+ 3Pt%.....................B...............................B+...............................D.............................................D FT%......................B-........ ......................F.............................................................................. Reb......................A.................................D+................................B+......................................B- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Off...Reb Down....Off....FG%...3P%...Def...3P%...Reb Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm Assts...Collins...4th Stls......Collins....25th Rebs....Okoro....42nd Double-Double....Collins & Hargrove...37th Mer PPG....Haase...65th Assts...Alvarez...64th Stls.....Haase....48th Mer has a weak defense, so we should be able to score. Also for the 2nd week in a row we face a very poor FT team. An honorable mention goes to Yuri who is shooting 90.1% from the FT line...no report card listing for him because the top 100 are shooting 100%. WWN2D2W....Stop Haase ...they have a back up shooter if we give Haase a hard time ...Alvarez....Hold these 2 guys to 25pts combined. We need to shoot and make some hoops...50/40/ 80...usually I put up the slash that will get us the victory. We can probably win this game with a lesser slash but I would like to see us do this to get back on track...especially against this defense. Finally, avoid mistakes. If we become careless or complacent, this team can rise up and bite you. Bottom line....The Mercer Bears will not be hibernating...we need to put them to sleep.
  23. Well, I don't think many fans had us going undefeated for the year. If you figured any losses this year, this was probably one of them. Rather than go into a deep analysis, I will simplify things to make the game less painful and so we can move on to what can still be a successful season. Here in a nutshell is what happened....31.2 / 34.5 / 22.7 / 65.6.....F- / F- / F- / F....Just plain dismal shooting.....even the FT shooting which had been pretty good this year was off and we can't blame that on the opp defense. Hey ...it happens ...every team has at least 1 bad game a season....this will be ours...and again . we can still have a good season even with this loss. This was a learning experience and we will be a better team for it. This concludes the analysis of this game. Reading past this line may inflict unnecessary pain. What...Are you still here? ...go home...it's over.....Ferris Bueller Had the Bills had an average night ( for an average D1 team....C/C/C/C ) taking the same number of shots, we would have had....7 more 2s....2 more 3s and 2 more FTs....wait you are getting ahead of me....yes 22 additional pts for an easy win. I told you to stop reading above... The advice is still the same ....move on ...next game.
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