The Wiz

The Bills enter this game with an A-. While the grade is the same as last time the underlying numbers are strengthening. It is harder to move up once you reach the A- level. If we beat SF by more than the spread and we have a few teams in front of us lose, we might be able to move up to A. At A- you have a 70% chance to Dance...at A it moves up to 90%. The Bills put on a great show at the Chaifetz against C Mich. Good basketball with some spectacular plays. As you will see in the report card below the grades are humming along. One that stands out is FT%...We are not only one of the top shooting FT teams ITN but we are THE top shooting FT team ITN. What a long way we have come since the French days when we were last in D1. AND...we still have more upside...once the 3s start to hit more often. As John Rooney of the Cardinals would say ... keep the line moving. Game preview... SF comes into town with a grade of B. The stats show we are the better team but they could make trouble for us. The problem will be their style of play. They will try to slow things down. The Dons maybe missing a key player...Fuch....a 10pt and 6 reb starting fwrd. If he doesn't play the spread could move into double digits. If he is missing there is even more reason for SF to slow things down. As they are already missing another forward they will be thin upfront. On offense, they are a little better than C Mich., the team we just whupped. But that is where the similarity ends . They are much better on D than CM and that is where they will try to beat us. We should be able to contain their offense ...the question then is will we be able to score. The good news is their 3P D is weak. If we can get back into form and start hitting 3s we should take this game. Report Card.... Change from last card... Off...up....PPG...FG%...2P%....FT....Rebs.....Dn...NONE Def...up...PPG.....2P%...Reb....Dn...none This may be the best report card the Bills have had since I have been doing this. ................SLU..................SF...................SLU........................SF ...........................OFF...................................................DEF.......... PPG...........A+..14th ITN....D+...................B..............................B+ FG%..........A.....................C.....................A+...13TH ITN...........B+ 2P%..........A+..17th ITN...C.....................A+..12TH ITN.............A 3P%..........B-...................B+...................A................................C- FT%.........A+..1st ITN......C-....................................................... Reb..........A-..12TH ITN...B-.....................A-...............................B OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation or the Thames show SLU... FG%...Thames ...12th..up....Brown...73rd...up 2P%....Thames..22nd...up....Brown 71st...up Stls...Thames...80th...up Stls/Foul...Thames...38th ...up Tru Shoot %.....Thames...13th ..up....Brown.. 67th..up...Green...84th...up eFG%...Thames...27th...up...Brown...90th...new...Green...new FT%...Sharma...40th...up Injuries... The Bills....... no injuries SF....... Player POS Injury Updated Status David Fuchs F Upper Body Sun 7 Dec Ques Sat Fuchs is battling an upper body injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Billikens on Saturday. Ndewedo Newbury F Leg Sat 22 Nov Out indefinitely Newbury is nursing a leg injury, and he is without a definitive timetable for return. Keys to the game....Will we play our fast up tempo game or will the Dons slow things down as we watch them execute the weave. If we prevail , we win by double digits . If they prevail then it is a close game. Another key is 3P shooting ...if we make them , we win. Finally, let's keep that low TO rate going. WWN2D2W.....Target slash...51/63/ 38 / 80....Keep their top 3 players to under 30 pts combined...keep TOs to 11 .....Win the Reb battle by 5... a Shake Shack burger (80 pts) means we probably win the game. Bottom line...The computer says bring home the special sauce.

Anything with computers (Team Ranking etc) is....data in ...rankings out... After the NET is completed in March...the Selection Committee will discuss 10-15 teams that are on the cusp narrowing it down to the last 4 in or out. But even when there are humans involved the humans are sitting there with their spread sheets....and not just basketball stats ....but money stats...who brings the most fans(money)..who has the largest TV audiences(money) ....what teams have interesting play or backstories that would attract fans (money) and all of these stats basketball or money are generated by the computers. Bottom lines are ....everything is computer driven with some small human intervention at the end which is also computer driven. The computers think we are the AI.

A very nice win today. Let me start by talking about a topic that I have harped on for many years.....TOs. This year hasn't been different. Coming into this game the Bills graded out at F- on TOs. But there have been some hopeful signs....15 to 20 min stretches with no TOs. Well, today was THE game. ...4. You know, many talk about efficiency...off eff...def eff...pts/poss eff...player eff.. etc. You know what the ultimate efficiency is? Cut the TOs down. Let's take a look at the game and see what happened. Bolded statements from the original post in this thread. Target slash...50/60/ 40 / 80...actual slash 58/73/38/ 73...We did good here...on FTs we were only 2 off and on 3s we were only 1 shot off...total on missed pts 5 but as you can see we did great on 2s...5 extra 2s...an extra 10 pts and a net gain of 5 pts. Going with the original spread of 19, adding 5pts makes it 24 pts...still way short of the spread. So where did the extra points come from? The computer's answer ...TOs. The computer figured in a good game we would match CM on TOs. But we didn't, we beat them on that stat. But could that stat make that much of a difference? The answer is yes. On TOs we beat them 13-4...we had 9 less TOs. That translates to 9 extra opportunities...playing that out that comes to 3 extra 2s and 2 extra 3s for the Bills...Total 12pts...but wait there is more...9 lost opportunities for CM....which would have been converted into three 2s...6pts ...12 +6= 18pts.... added to the Bills total of 24 pts(the 5 extra pts from the good shooting slash) and you come up with a a spread of 42 pts. Bottom line...high TOs bad ...low TOs good. One last thing ...4 TOs is not normal especially in a fast paced game like the Bills play. If they can stay in the 9-11 TO area ...it would be very positive for the team going forward. keep TOs to 11 ...see previous paragraph. Win the Reb battle by 7...Far exceeded...we won this one 40-26 Keep their top 3 players to under 25 pts combined...while this was a miss it still worked out....the key stat here is their top 4 players had 50 pts...not bad on the surface EXCEPT that was 77% of the total points....after those points CM was pretty much out of ammo. Get everybody a Shake Shack burger (80 pts)...yes we did...for being over 100pts they should have thrown in fries too. Btw, the last time the Bills scored over 100 3 times in the same season was 1994-95. Bottom line ...The Bills are playing like a team. They could have looked at this game and said ..we got this. But from the opening tipoff they just kept coming at CM in waves. They played 40 min of basketball...that is what good teams do.

The computer liked this game but it is unlikely to move us up from A-. This game strengthens are underlying numbers. Yes, winning games is important. And scoring margin is important too. But now that we are A- (top 50) we run into a new problem. If you want to continue to climb the rankings ladder, you will need to have teams above us lose or at least have close calls against bad teams. We have no control over other teams but if we keep winning others will lose and we will continue to climb even if it is slower. The next game against SF could help us. They are a good team at grade B. If we play like we did today, it will be another nice win.

I would put it on.

I think the computer is spooked by our frittering away big leads at the end of games. Of course we didn't do that the last game but the machine likes to see something happen twice before it declares a trend. A good sign is the computer asked me to bring it some special sauce from Shake Shack on Monday.

The at large probability is 25%.

Well, we already had a perfect storm game against Lindenwood...beat them by 43 pts with a slash of 66.7 / 75 / 52.4 / 71...This is what a perfect storm looks like. That game cancels out 1 of the 2 Acrisure tourney games that we hit 25% from the arc. Seems to me we should have at least one more 50% 3P game left in the near future.

Ahh...it's good to be back at the mainframe. Another good win in the last game at LM. I look forward to this part of the season...not because we are playing CM but because we have 8 games under our belt. It is at this point that the computer is mainly using real data as opposed to predictive algorithms. I noticed a lot of predictive systems have given the Bills a boost in their ratings after Loy....mine included. I can't speak for the others but in my case the computer has seen enough to know that we are for real. With the win over LM we are back at A-. This is significant. As I have stated in the past A- is the threshold that leads to everything...an A10 1st place finish...an A10 tourney championship....an NCAA bid. BUT this is only the 1st step...Step 2 is to stay at or above A- for the rest of the season. We have a long way to go but we have taken the first step. For those that are interested, the computer shows our chances for a NCAA bid are now at 51%...not a sure thing but a start. Btw, for those that are NET followers, I would like to point out the difference between my system and the NET is mine is more predictive. The NET on the other hand always assumes that.. tomorrow is the tourney and these are my picks/rankings. There are some pretty good divergences but by March the systems pretty much come together. One other item before we get into the nitty gritty...After the 8th game, I like to ask the computer what one stat is most important for the team to win games. This year the answer is...the 3P% stat for each game and it cranked out the following chart.... 3P%......Chance of winning the game... 25%...............50% 28%...............55% 31%................60% 34%...............65% 37%................70% 40%................75% 43%................80% 46%................85% 49%................90% Make 3s =win games Game preview... So it is back to Chaifetz ...where the arc seems closer and the basket widths seem wider. And as you can tell by the spread, it is cupcake time again. CM comes in with a D- and not particularly good at anything. They have a 7 footer (it seems like everyone does these days) who will grab some rebounds , make a block or 2 and look for put backs. But this game will be about scoring margin. If we have a good game ...make some 3s and avoid careless mistakes we can exceed the spread by 10...if we have a bad game we could be looking at 10 points below the spread. A D- is a strange grade....You are not very good but you are not a failure. Bradley, a team we handled easily in an exhibition, beat the Chippewas by over 30 pts.... and then a couple of weeks later CM played a B+ Marquette and Marq beat them by only 14. The moral is...scoring margin is everything in a game like this especially if you are trying to stay at A-. Report Card.... change from last card... Off...up....FT....Rebs.....Dn...PPG...FG%...2P%...3P% Def...up...PPG...FG%..2P%...3P%....Dn...none Looking good...We need to get 3P% up a bit and opp reb down a bit so we can make the Dean's list (straight A's) in both Off & Def. ................SLU..................CM...................SLU......................CM ...........................OFF...................................................DEF.......... PPG...........A....................D+.....................B-............................C- FG%..........A-...................B-.....................A+...13TH ITN...........C 2P%..........A....................C+.....................A+..17TH ITN.............C- 3P%..........B-...................D......................A................................C+ FT%.........A+..1st ITN......C+....................................................... Reb..........A-..16TH ITN...C+.....................B+...............................C OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU... FG%...Thames ...42nd..up....Brown...90th...new 2P%....Thames..68th...new....Brown 93rd...new Stls...Thames...82nd...dn FT%...Sharma...49th...new Injuries... Neither team has reported injuries Keys to the game....We need to make 3s...and avoid careless mistakes...and we will win WWN2D2W.....Target slash...50/60/ 40 / 80....Keep their top 3 players to under 25 pts combined...keep TOs to 11 (we are currently at F-...19th WITN).....Win the Reb battle by 7...Get everybody a Shake Shack burger (80 pts) Bottom line...We need to chip away at the Chippewas.

Yes, I think you are correct...the computer does look with joy at this result. The win tonight was a significant win. Not a great win but a significant win. First , it was a nice bounce back after a crushing loss to Stanford. Also this is the 8th game which completes the computers data gathering and from here on out it is using real data as the Bayesian model starts to fade out. And it does like what it sees after 8 games. The 7-1 mark confirms what I thought was a pretty aggressive preseason forecast....12-1 OOC...13 -5 conference...25-6 overall. I think from here on out barring any setbacks the computer will become more aggressive in its spreads. It saw what it was waiting to see. It saw the kids play and liked what it saw. Btw...it has moved the Bills back to A-. The A- grade is the minimum needed to win the conference...to win the A10 tourney ....to win an at large bid NCAA. Now it is on to step 2 ...trying to hold onto the A-.

LM numbers look pretty good on offense. But they are a poor shooting FT team. It could be KPom puts more emphasis on FT shooting than my system. It also could be the mix of players. KP uses an offensive efficiency system to come up with ratings. . If you have a few players who are hot and the rest of the team is poor that could bring down the KP numbers. Again, the outcome depends on how you weight the various variables. In any case, both KP and my numbers will be coming down as a result of LM's 2nd leading score being out for this game. Let's use our depth to wear them down.

This should be an easy one to answer...but it isn't. Normally, taking 5% off the slash line in a close game would result in a loss. However as a result of the loss of their 2nd leading scorer, the computer thinks we will still win the game. There has only been 1 game since his injury BUT in that game LM lost to a a stinky Stonybrook team. Let's just hit some 3s and blow them out

I will be back when the Bills return home after this game.

First of all congrats to the Soccer team on their win over Bryant...Overcoming all the odds..an away game...refs...NCAA. A great win for a great team. Second, I am still on the road but after this game, I will be back to full pregame reports. And finally, this is an important game for the Bills. This battle against Loyola will show what the Bills are made of. Can they come out strong against Loy after the heartbreaking loss to Stfd or will they stumble out of the starting gate? This game will complete the first cycle (8 games) where the spreads and the data become more meaningful. The computer thinks we will come out strong. This is a different/ better team than last year. A stronger team with more depth ...a team in a better place to overcome adversity. The game against Stfd was a freak game...not just because we lost in the final seconds but because the loss was a low probability event...a once in a blue moon occurrence.(for more info on this see the post game analysis in the Stfd spread thread.). By shaking this past game off and focusing on LM, we can still make this a very promising season. )Game preview.... The loss had a minor effect on our numbers. We have dropped back to B+ (from A-) Normally a game like LM wouldn't be able to move the needle back up much. but in this case a win over a decent team on the road (and beating the spread) might be just enough to get us over the hump and back to A-. Some of this upward movement is dependent on other teams but as long as we take care of business we will be fine. LM comes into the game as a B- team. This will not be an easy task. On offense, even with weakness the past 2 games we still have all A's except on 3 P shooting which has slipped back to B. One area that has not weakened is FT shooting...we are now # 1 ITN in FT%. Meanwhile, LM is no slouch on Off with all B's with 2 exceptions...LM is A+.. 9th ITN in Rebs and D- on FT shooting, This game could be decided at the charity stripe. The Bills are also looking good on D too....FG% - 12th ITN.....2P%- 11th ITN. The rest of the grades were Bs...For the Lions Def there were A's and B's with the exception of Rebs D-...So LM gets a lot of Rebs and they give up a lot of Rebs. The Lions have a strong starting 5 that can shoot 3s. It should be a close game with advantage Bills. Injury... Bills...No injuries LM...Vide...Foot injury...Out for the game...injured Nov 24 Keys to the game...FT shooting...rebs...3P shooting...TOs ...Depth...Vide is a big loss for LM...2nd leading scorer...what little Depth they had is gone WWN2D2W....Target slash...53/55/40/ 80...make some 3s...match them on rebs...TOs 11...Depth...they have a strong starting 5 but then there is a sharp drop off. We need to take advantage of this with our strong starting 9. We need to play up tempo and when they start subbing we need to open up the spread Bottom line...I think we should beat Loy Mar...I don't want to be Lion about that.

There is no question that the loss to GC was as painful as the loss to Stfd was the other day. . Both were losses on the final shot of the game with seconds left to go in the game. But there were differences in the 2 games and those differences are what made the Stfd game a freak and the other one a good chance for GC to win. In the Stfd game , Schertz was following "the book" which states that when you have a 3 pt lead with less than 5 sec to play ...you foul the other team. As I pointed out in the post game wrap up in this thread....if you played that same game 24 times...starting from 4.3 sec left...we win 23 times out of 24....a freak occurrence...everything had to be perfect for Stfd to win. In the GC game a year ago things were different. We were winning the game with 46 sec left to go. With 3 sec left and the Bills winning 72-71, we fouled the GC player setting up a 1 & 1. We didn't have to foul him but we did..... . unlike the Stfd game which was a planned foul. So now, if we play this game from the 3 sec mark and their player at the foul line...the probability is 55% that GC wins by making 2 FTs. If we play 9 games , in that scenario, GC wins 5 games on FTs...of the remaining 4 games GC would win 1 of 4....6 of 9 or every 3 games GC wins 2 starting at the 3 sec mark. So their win last year was not a freak. It doesn't change the fact that both games were painful. The difference is this years Bills team is much better than last year's team. Last years loss was one of a number of losses in the OOC. This year's team has 1 loss and that was a freak. The outlook for this year is much better than after last year's painful loss.