The Wiz

Tough loss...so many chances to win. The take away tonight is that if GM is the best team in the A10, there isn't anyone in the conference we cant beat. We went toe to toe with them. The difference between the 2 teams is that Mason played at 100% ....their full potential...we didn't ...we could have played better. There was no more upside with GM...we still had more untapped potential ...and yet we still took them to OT. Before we review the game, let's first look at a GM anomaly. This guy Newton . He turned out to be a real fig. He scores 27 pts. He averages 6.6 pts/gm...more than quadruples his average night. He does this by going 8-12 from the arc... shooting 67%. This is a guy who was shooting 27% in conference play from the arc. A guy who had nine 3PM for all A10 games. You could give this guy a basketball and have him go out on a court by himself and tell him to shoot twelve 3PA and it is unlikely he would make 8. We got figged by a Newton. But even with the anomaly, we could have still won this game...in regulation. Let's look at the stats...Bolded phrases from the original post... So in this game which could turn into a low scoring defensive battle the Pts Off TOs becomes an important stat for us to win. ..We lost this stat...14-8pts...the difference between winning and losing. In actual TOs, it turned out to be GM 5...SLU 14....But it is not just the extra 9 possessions they had but the extra 9 possessions we didn't have. The other stat that will affect the outcome of the game will be the mystery stat...3 pt shooting...will it show up (36%)? If it does it could mean a W...Another statement that turned out to be true. At 31% we were two 3P shots short of 36%...enough for victory. In fact had we made those 2 shots we also would have made the target FG% of 48. Unfortunately Jimerson had an off night shooting 18% ...had he made 2 more 3s, he and the team both would have had 36%. But it certainly wasn't his fault...coming off the ankle injury ...he had little practice and probably wasn't 100%...YET he played all 45 min of the game....the only player on either team to do that. the real secret for the Bills in this game and all the remaining games will be to limit opponent possessions. We may be the better team most of the time but if we keep giving the other team extra shots , we lose. ..We lost the FGA 68-62...better than recent games but in a 2P OT game ...6 is a difference maker. Score 70...Stay within 3 rebs (we actually beat them by 7...we need to do this all the time ...play aggressive)...Hold Haynes and Maddox to 21 pts (they actually scored 24 but that was good when you add in OT)....These statements are why we were able to stay with them all the way through OT. Coach Schertz told the team after the game that 1 of 2 things happens after a game like this one....1) either a team folds up and the season is over or 2) the team learns, grows and toughens up to have a successful season. I am betting on #2

Jimerson is playing

Just an add on to your post. Mason's SOS is a B- as is VCU. The Bills are showing the 2nd toughest schedule so far with a B. St. J and Rich also have Bs. Highest SOS goes to Day with a B+. The rest of the A10 comes in at B- with the exception of GW which is lagging at C-.

We start with a tale of 2 Joeys. We began the season with promise but needed to come together as a team. After some ups and downs in the OOC schedule we seemed to gel at the first St. J game. With the win over St. J, we were a B team poised to take the next step to B+. Since then we have moved sideways. We are caught between 2 Joeys...game 1 Joey and game 2 Joey. Our record after Joey 1 is 5-4...the last 6 games (including the 2nd Joey) we have been in an alternating pattern of win /loss ...3-3...W L W L W L. If the pattern holds ...next up should be a win. But it's not just the pattern, it's the data too which shows we could be ripe for a win. The computer didn't punish us because of the bigger than expected spread against SJ. It saw that with less than 5 min to go in the game we were within the spread ( 4pts ) and we had done so while Jimerson was missing. So it figured we did what we were supposed to do and again moved us sideways in our ranking. Let's take a look at the upcoming GM game. Game preview.... First , let's deal with the elephant in the room..... GM defense. We are not just talking about the best defense in the A10 but one of the best defenses in the nation (see Report Card below). The counter is we have a better offense. If it shows up and makes some shots we have a chance to win....a 50.75%. This was a strange data set....the computer has us winning by 1 but qualified it and said we either will win in a close one or get bombed (lose by 10+)...The computer chose that we win a close one. It liked that we beat St. J in TOs..a stat we have been having a problem with recently. But it isn't just the quantity of TOs but the quality of TOs....There are good TOs and bad TOs. A good TO is you give the ball up and there is no score on it ...a bad TO is you give it up and the opp scores. In the St. J game we won the TO battle BUT lost the Pts off TOs. So in this game which could turn into a low scoring defensive battle the Pts Off TOs becomes an important stat for us to win. The other stat that will affect the out come of the game will be the mystery stat...3 pt shooting...will it show up (36%)? If it does it could mean a W. As I mentioned in the GDT (most recent St. J game...post game analysis), the real secret for the Bills in this game and all the remaining games will be to limit opponent possessions. When the possessions are close, we usually win the game. We are not talking about a few extra possessions..... in the losses we have had , the other team has had 50-100% more FGAs.... Unacceptable.... For all the talk about TOs and Rebs...FGAs are the real issue. We may be the better team most of the time but if we keep giving the other team extra shots , we lose. Can we win? ...yes if we don't give them extra shots...this concept is especially important when you are playing one of the top defensive teams ITN. Top 4... This week's race is projecting VCU, GM, SLU and Day as the top 4.... with St. J in the wings if someone falters. While this has been predicted for a few threads the difference is Day has faltered a bit and St. J is tied for 4th. It is a 3 team race for 3rd and 4th in the A10. While this is an important game from a stand point of staying in the top 4 , this game takes on additional significance as a tie breaker for the 4th spot in the A-10. Not only if we would tie with Mason but also if we tie with anyone else for 4th, this likely would be the game used to determine who finishes 4th. The good news is we are in 3rd and will stay there if we win. We are still a B team. The computer still thinks we need to get to B+ to stay in the top 4 and have a chance to win the A10 tourney. The computer also thinks that 12-6 will take the 4th spot. A team might be able to slip in with an 11-7 but 12 wins is more of a sure thing. Let's take a look at the Report Card and see what's happening. Report Card.... Report Card change....0 up...2 dn...7 unchanged = -2...overall we are still moving sideways but the numbers are starting to erode a bit. UP.....OFF....none....DEF....none Dn....OFF....FG%...DEF........PPG ................SLU................GM.................SLU........................GM ...........................OFF...........................................DEF.......... PPG...........C-..................D+.......................B-............................A+...9th ITN FG%..........B+.................B.........................B+...........................A+...3rd ITN 3P%..........C...................C..........................A..............................A+...12th ITN FT%..........D-.................D+........................................................ Reb............C..................A-........................D-..............................A- OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU... 2P%....Team.........4th.....dn Asst....Swope........69th...up 3PM......Jimerson...52nd...dn ..............Swope.......49th...dn Reb....Anya............36th...dn FG%...Anya..........54th ...up 2P%....Anya.........39th...up 3P%...Jimerson...100th...unch GM... FG%...Hayes ...74th Injuries... SLU... Casey & Dotzler...OFTS Thames...Ques....2/4...undisclosed Jimerson is listed unofficially as day to day GM None Keys to the game...Make some 3s and keep the FGA close...keep TOs down WWN2D2W..... Target slash 48/36/73......score 70 pts...Beat them with POTs (preferably long handled ones...Points Off Turnovers )...Stay within 3 rebs...Hold Haynes and Maddox to 21 pts Bottom line...Let's jar Mason with a victory.

I did say that defending the 3 was one of our strong points. Coming into the St. J game we had an A in 3P defense....24th in the nation....better than 340 other D1 teams. There was a problem with 3s but it wasn't 3P defense. It was that we shot only 20% from the arc AND we gave them too many chances. ...ie twice as many shots...31 to our 15. ..caused by too many TOs and rebounds....but not caused by poor 3 defense. If you cut the St. J 3P stats in half but use the same shooting %...5.5/15.5=35.5% plus add 2.5 more 3PM made to bring The Bills up to a normal shooting night on 3s...5.5/ 15= 36.7%. ..(note these numbers are similar to the numbers I use in the target slash) you have a swing of 8 three pt shots or a difference of 24 pts ...ie we win the game easy. To use a baseball analogy...If you are batting 200 (20%) as a team you aren't going to win many games. Likewise, if you are going to give the other team 6 strikes on every at bat ( twice as many chances) you again will not have many wins. If you are batting (shooting) poorly or you are giving the other team twice as many chances (strikes or 3PA) it doesn't matter what kind of defense you are playing...it is too much to overcome. Shoot better from the arc + cut down on the other teams possessions (reduce TOs and opp rebs)= more wins

There are many paths to the same destination. As you stated , having more rebounds would would have closed the FGA gap. As would having less TOs. When the Bills are favored to win all they need to do is play their game...do what they should be able to do and they will win. If the other team is favored they need to do what they do plus another variable a little better....a better variable they can do but don't always do. In this case with St. J favored...we needed to do what we always do plus something else a little better. Instead , 3P shooting was weak . So even though TOs were fixed in this game the weak 3P shooting still allowed St. J be favored. Throw in a gap in the rebounding and you have a double digit loss. The bucket will hold water if you fix the leak unless other leaks develop....the summation of The Bills season so far.

Tough loss... This game was over with about 5 min left in the half...The FIRST HALF. We had a 10 pt lead at that time but from then on...we just faded away. The story of this game was 3 pt shooting...SJ 36%...SLU 20%...Just like you can't win with 20 TOs, you can't win with 20% 3P shooting. They had an extra eight 3PM....24 pts more...BALL GAME. We had only one 3PM in the final 25 min of the game. The sad thing is , after struggling for a few games with TOs, we had a good night protecting the ball (11). We actually beat St. J in the TO battle (12). Like in most sports , you have to do more than 1 thing right at a time to win. ...Low TOs and shoot 3s. We can do both ...now we just have to do them together.

Speaking of 3s...I just added Jimerson to the top 100 report card on the St. J thread.as he final broke through and reached the 100th place at 36.7%. Brockhoff's 38% last year would not have made the list due to the small sample size. You need to have at least 25 3PM to qualify for the list.

We have been inconsistent in rebs lately BUT Mass is the # 1 reb team in the A10 and we only were down 3 to them. It is not always about how many rebs you get but when you get them. I would say The Bills last reb in the Mass game that Anya grabbed was worth maybe 3 or 4 rebs.

I have Day over VCU by 2

You are correct...it will be quite a challenge...BUT...we outrebounded them by 3 in the last game scoring one of our highest reb totals of the season...40.

What a great game against Mass...a good final game with them. For a review of the game including some written play by play, check out the Mass spread thread near the end for the post game report. Game preview.... It doesn't get any easier. St. J is a better team than Mass...there will be less room for error. Without belittling a point (I have already done that in the last few threads...let's just keep it simple...TOs...DON'T. In the last game with the Hawks we had only 11 TOs...a far cry from what we have done lately. But the big difference last time was we crushed their slash with some good D. Their slash was ....33/15/ 73. We didn't have a particularly good day from the arc (32%) BUT still managed to more than double their arc % as well as the 3PM. Yes, St.J will make some adjustments BUT if we just have a normal shooting day that will make up for any adjustments. We come into the game at the B level and still moving sideways on the trend line. This is happening because we are doing what we are supposed to be doing. The Mass game was predicted to be even and we won by 2....we met expectations. We need to exceed expectations. St. J comes to the table as a B team too. The computer thinks we can beat them because we have already shown we are the better team. But again , because it is an away game and because we have been inconsistent the computer will not favor us. So I told the computer, we won by 16 last game and a venue swap is worth about 7pts, we should be favored by 9 in this game. The computer wasn't buying it ...it said which team is showing up ? ...the 19 TO team or the 11 TO team ...SHOW ME. We will see who wins this battle ..the human or the machine. A win over St. J will exceed expectations and start moving the trend line up again. Top 4... This week's race is projecting VCU, GM, SLU and Day as the top 4. If anyone falters , then St. J will swoop in (or is it Swope in) and take a spot...which is why it is important we win this game. Right now we don't have to depend on anyone else to get us in the top 4 . We can eliminate the chasers one at a time each game we play. All we have to do is just win the next game ...every time. Let's take a look at the Report Card and see what's happening. Report Card.... Report Card change....1 up...2 dn...6 unchanged = -1...again a sideways drift UP.....OFF....FG%....DEF....none Dn....OFF....3P%...DEF........Rebs ................SLU...............St. J.................SLU......................St. J ...........................OFF...........................................DEF.......... PPG...........C-..................C+.......................B............................B FG%..........A-.................C-........................B+..........................B+ 3P%..........C..................C-.........................A............................B- FT%..........D-.................B+........................................................ Reb............C.................B..........................D-.............................C OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU... 2P%....Team.........2nd.....up PPG....Jimerson...73rd...up Asst....Swope........71st...dn 3PM......Jimerson...36th...dn ..............Swope.......42nd...up Reb....Anya............31st...dn FG%...Anya..........66th ...up 2P%....Anya.........74th...up 3P%...Jimerson...100th...new St. J... Asst...Brown...64th Rebs...Fleming...25th Blks...Ajogbor...21st 3P%...Finkly...56th Injuries... SLU... Casey & Dotzler...OFTS Thames...Ques....2/4...undisclosed St. J Solano...OFTS...personal matter...11/26/24 Myers...Out Indefinitely....knee...No games played this season. Keys to the game...We need to beat them at the arc...Continue our good D...no open shots. and did I mention yet ...protect the ball ...keep the TOs down. WWN2D2W..... Target slash 48/36/73...beat their slash...Keep them under 70 pts...match them on TOs...beat them on rebs. Hold Brown , Raskins & Reynolds (sounds like a law firm) to 35 pts. Bottom line...With a win...The Bills will be clapping and the Hawks will stop flapping.

Different rules this year...NIT trying to make it more Mid Major friendly. ....or it could be the first step toward a Big Boy tourney and a Mid Boy Tourney.

If you are in a Top 12 conference as determined by KenPom (we are currently 8 ), you get an auto bid for being the top team in the conference.

What a win...Schertz said it was one of the most amazing wins in his career. Quick recap...Ask yourself at the end of each statement if you thought we had a chance to win...on which statement number did you flip over and say this is a loss. 1..Avila fouls out at 8 1/2 min to go in the game...Bills down 6 2... Bills down 10 with 6 1/2 to go 3....Bills down 7 with 4 1/2 min to go 4....Bills down 5 with 38 sec to go 5....Bills down 1 with 14 sec left and Swope misses a 3P shot and Mass gets the Reb 6....Still down 1 McCottry steals the ball and is laying on the floor with a Mass player laying on him at 11 sec 7....10 sec left ...McCottry passes the ball to Swope... 8...Swope sinks a 3 for a 2 pt lead with with 9.3 sec left 9...Mass gives the ball to their leading scorer Diggins(26 pts /gm in A10 play ) in the final secs 10...In the final sec, Diggins goes up for a layup.... 11...Anya blocks it 12...Bills recover the final shot as the buzzer rings....Bills score 7 pts in 28 sec So at which number did you give up or were you a Bill-iever all the way. As you remember, the computer picked this game as even...It doesn't get much more even than that. One thing notable about the game finish is that earlier in the season we would have lost a game like this. Time for a closer look...Bolded statements from the original post. The computer says we are the better team but our inconsistency and a tough Mass venue keeps the computer from giving us the win...I would say this is a true statement...we were the better team and our inconsistency kept it close. Our gelling helped win the game. Diggins is there main man. Keep him under control and we have a good chance to win. Hold Diggins to 14 pts....I think this was one of the main reasons we won...We held Diggins to 5 pts...13/10/ 0...no FTs. Mass is one of the worst 3P shooting teams ITN. If we guard them , we can push them under 20%. ...We pushed them down to 25% and won the battle 35 to 25%. Mass is a bad shooting FT team. As much as we have struggled this year (D- ) Mass is an F. In a close game , FTs may decide it...We won this battle 64 to 61%...We shot D- to their F ...A side note here ...Mass had more FTM because we had more fouls......Time for a couple of trivia questions...What team in the A10 has the most fouls ? ...What team has the least fouls? If you answered Mass and SLU in that order ...you are correct....btw Mass had 10 fouls for the game and SLU had 16...3rd trivia question...What is wrong with those numbers? Target slash 48/36/73...Actual 49/ 35/ 64...pretty close...we missed it by one 3 and 1 FT. come within 2 on rebs... we were within 3 ...again close enough... Keep them under 70 pts...Close again beat them on TOs...This was a miss in a game we should have had a double digit win. But even here there were a couple of rays of hope...We had 15 TOs ...still too many BUT less than the 18 we have been averaging recently. Another positive item was we gave up 12 pts on TOs. We generally average around 1.25 pts given up/TO...That means normally we would have given up 19pts...a saving of 7 pts...which kept us closer than usual....We still need to fix this but for tonight it worked out. Or as @Old guy said above ...this was something close to a miracle. Finally , I leave you with what may have been my best forecast in the opening post.... Bottom line... If we make them play our game...then time will run out on the Minutemen....It certainly did. tick , tick, tick..BAM...Buzzer Go Bills