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The Wiz

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    The Wizard of Odds

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Listener of the Streets

Listener of the Streets (6/7)

  1. Guarantee is a strong word...remember we are talking about the NCAA Selection Committee that has it's favs to take care of. While I wouldn't say guarantee, I would say it improves the A-10's chances of getting extra bids. I have written in previous posts about how the NET is calculated. I know people like to talk about the quad wins. Quad wins are an important factor in determining bids BUT they are not the most important factor. Margin of victory is the most important. ...what I referred to as the Colgate factor. In a years earlier thread, I talked about how Colgate finished 9th ITN in the NET...Not many Q1 opponents ...not a great SOS... but they won the vast majority of their games (in a weak league) by 10 pts(the threshold ) or more. Margin matters. Bottom line...A tourney with 3 of the 4 top teams (in future years all 4 teams) in the 1st round playing a weaker opponent not only adds another win to the resume...but a good chance for a 10 pt win which will help the NET score which will increase the chances for more bids.
  2. I would like to propose an idea for the upcoming A-10 tourney... Have a 15 team , 4 round tournament with the A10 champ drawing a first round bye. Make it meaningful to win the A10. As for league officials who may argue about the lost 5th game PIG revenue, I say that revenue and then some will be made up in the better 1st round games which will now feature 3 of the 4 top A10 teams. For those who don't want to say bye to the double bye , I say get ready to say bye to all byes. Once the A-10 adds 1 more team (this is a when not if proposition) there likely will be no more byes. It will be just a straight 4 round 16 team tourney. Why not start the transition to that 4 round tourney now.
  3. I think I understand what you are saying. I would need to setup an entirely different database which would not be compatible with my existing one on the chance that it might be more accurate than the current system. 40% of all D1 teams have a 3-4 pt home court advantage on any given night. The rounding error alone can affect the final spread by almost 1 pt. Bottom line ...a lot of work for little or no improvement in the current system. I think that is why you have seen little change in how home court advantage has been figured in the past 2 decades. A lot of institutions with far more resources than myself have tried other systems and returned to the current standard. Perhaps , when I sign my 7 figure NIL contract, I can try to reinvent the wheel. In the meantime, as a 13 year old girl once told me..."There's no place like home"...after all it is worth 4.18 pts to Bills fans.
  4. Interesting articles by KPom. I don't follow KP but I try to keep up with his methodology(as well as other handicappers). In those articles it looks like he is struggling to find the "magical stat"...the one that holds the key to home court advantage. But in the end he (as many others including myself) realizes it is a futile search and winds up doing what I and many other handicappers do...use home and away scoring margins. The data bases and methodology differ from analyst to analyst but the end result is the same...they don't know the why but here are the spreads. The holy grail of home court advantage is the why. I think most fans think that it is all about the home crowds...size, energy, enthusiasm, etc. but the numbers don't seem to bear it out. It has an affect but is not considered one of the top factors. In looking at the studies out there and talking with a number of sports book handicappers and running my own numbers on the data...here is my list for the top 3 factors. Remember, these are not the only factors but the ones that I think have the most influence....listed in order of importance Travel time....don't confuse this with distance. A trip to St. B with a plane ride and long bus ride may be longer and more taxing than a trip to the West Coast. Time change...Bio studies have shown it takes 1 day per time zone for your body to adjust . Not all teams can arrive 24-48 hours before game time. We are not talking about falling asleep on the court. ...but maybe that shot or pass is a few inches off. Altitude....The number 1 team on my home court advantage list is U of Denver. If you can't breathe, you can't play. However if the Jayhawks show up in Denver they squash the Pioneers...but just not by as much. Those are the top 3 ...there are other factors (such as venue size, sight lines, crowds) but in the end it is a combo of some or all the factors in different degrees. Which is why I (and many others ) use scoring margins home and away. ...It doesn't tell you the how but it tells you the how much.
  5. If you look at just 2 games then it doesn't make sense...small sample sizes rarely work ...but if you take 14 years worth of A-10 games it becomes more meaningful. And of course the system is weighted...ie after a 10 pt spread the margin value starts to decline. ...so the 30 pt road win (outlier) is not as big of an advantage particularly if put it into a pool of hundreds of home and away A10 games. Finally, if you win every road game by a bigger margin than your home games ...you have NO home court advantage... under any system.
  6. That is kind of what I do...As I pointed out above, the main variable is home vs away in the A-10....The simplified version would be ...you beat VCU by 2 away...then you beat them by 6 at the Fetz..the true home court advantage is 4...(6+2) / 2 = 4...of course this is super simplified. Closer to reality is to take 14 years of SLU /VCU games home & away...then adding in lesser factors such as all the other A-10 games SLU has played home and away over 14 years. For OOC games , if there is not enough data to create a margin , then I will use other A-10 teams data against OOC teams we are playing. It is all about interconnectivity in a closed system ( 358 teams) with changing data. It is why after the first 8 games , I have enough data to make fairly accurate forecasts...think 6 degrees of Kevin Bacon. Again , I want to emphasize that having a good home court advantage doesn't make you a super team. The best team in the A-10 over the years is GW followed by Dayton and then SLU. GW may seem like a surprise to some here (except maybe @SluSignGuy)but the reason they have the best home court advantage is not because there is something magical about the Smith Center but it is because they are a bad team on the road and have been for a number of years. When they finally come home and play average their home court advantage becomes big. The Bills are a good away team . Even when they don't win they are close many times. That good away data leads to a smaller home advantage...though 3rd in the A-10 is still excellent. And the raw numbers show that The Bills are a formidable team at home. Bottom line....Looking good so far for this year. Check back in 4 1/2 months for an update.
  7. I agree ...we need to finish above .500 on the road every year...As I mentioned in the post above , we have had a good team on the road over the years. Last year , even with the loss of Perkins , we managed to finish 9-7 and 4 of those losses were by 6 pts or less. (not to mention 3 losses at home by 5 pts or less ..Bel, UAB and St. B...Do you think we could have won a few of those 7 games with Perkins playing this past year?...I do. Getting back to the topic of away games...Barring a loss of key players , I don't see why we can't finish with 10+ victories away from the Fetz in the coming year. Bottom line...While we still have 1 more card to turn over and we will need some time to gel....There are enough cards showing on the table to at least take the Dancing shoes out of the box.
  8. I can't speak to what KenPom does but I can tell you what I do to figure home field advantage. I compare The Bill's home scoring margin (the average points they win or lose by) to their scoring margins on the road since 2008 when we started playing at Chaifetz. The difference between the home and away numbers are the "real" home court advantage....the number of points the Bills are better at home than on a neutral court. I use only A10 games. This way I can compare similar SOS for home vs away. This doesn't tell you which are the toughest courts to play on or about crowd size or enthusiasm. It tells me how much better the Bills play at home compared to the road. So with that said...I show the Bills at 81st in home field advantage which is a pretty nice ranking. One of the the things that keeps our ranking a little lower is that we play pretty well on the road. In other words, teams that play well on the road don't have as big of an advantage as a team that plays poorly on the road. Their (the poor away teams) spread (their home court advantage) is much larger because they play poorly on the road. I personally would rather have a team that plays well at home and away even if it meant a worse home court ranking. I don't look at home court rankings...I look to see how well we play on the road. Do well on the road and the Fetz will take care of itself.
  9. Catching up on the board in the off season... I think he will be a nice addition. This is a tough analysis. Because of his limited playing time , his numbers come up as NM-S3...Not meaningful -small sample size. Not to worry...throwing in a dab of Bayesian analysis , I can work my magic. Here are some of the issues....in 3 of his 4 seasons he played 16 or less games...13, 26, 16, 15.....Min/gm...4, 17, 21, 16...2P% 51.5%-56.7%...FT% 49.7- 66.7% Slash line=2P%/FT%...no 3PA ...so a short line....I did not include his Frosh yr at IU because he only played 13 games for a total of 55 min for the year. After the %s are the grades based on all D1 shooting in that category. 20-21...56.7% (A+) /66.7% (F+) ...best year......342 min 21-22....51.5% (B) / 62.5 (F- ).....worst year....246 min 19-20....53.3% (A ) / 49.3 (F- )...most playing time...448 min So here we are limited playing time and numbers all over the place... Here are his projected 22-23 numbers 54.7 % ( A+ ) / 64.1% ( F ) plus 3-4 rebs/gm Bottom line....He can be a difference maker...kind of a Linssen without the FT shooting. Even if he has a bad season (51.5%) he still comes in with a grade of B which helps. Speaking of FT shooting ...one caveat ...he can not be in the game in the final few minutes if it is close and a fouling situation. The Wiz says ...Jake is a good get.
  10. In his freshman year, he was 3rd ITN in 3P%. As a Soph this year, he played an extra 6 games (21 of 30) which led to 120 more min. His numbers dropped off significantly. His 3P% dropped from 52.9% to 37.5% ..While still very good ...no national ranking. And even with the extra min this year most of his slash line (FG% and FT%) comes in at NM-S3...not meaningful due to small sample size. It remains to be seen whether he will make a meaningful difference to St. B this year.
  11. Mo' Momo https://newenglandrecruitingreport.com/in-the-news/a
  12. There are approximately 1600 players in the portal. A lot of them are difference makers and will be stars in their conference where ever they wind up playing. Are they all stars?...No ...But do we need 1600 players? ...again , no. We just need 2 or 3 players out of the 1600. See the link below for a discussion about availability and a few under the radar stars. https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/College-basketball-transfer-portal-Best-available-players-outside-of-top-100-rankings-187402636/ Not satisfied ...still on edge....Here is the whole list of players...This list is about 3 weeks old but it is still pretty accurate. https://watchstadium.com/every-player-in-the-2022-college-basketball-transfer-portal-04-21-2022/#:~:text=Right now there are more than 1%2C400 scholarship players in the portal.
  13. "I don't complain about playing time. My job is to play so well the coach can't sit me." Shane Battier Duke and Miami Heat
  14. Haase would be a good get.... The figures below are his last year at Mercer and his last year at SC....As he got significantly more minutes at Mercer... 34.3 mpg vs 23.5 , I have adjusted his numbers at SC to reflect what he would have done at SC with equal time...Those numbers are in parenthesis ....Obviously the percentages are not adjusted, just the raw numbers. Games....MPG...FG%...3P%...FT%...Rebs.........Asts..........Stls.........Blks............TOs SC...........23.5......41......41......82......3.8(5.6)....1.1(1.6)....0.5(.7)....0.3(.44)......1.5(2.2) Mer..........34.3.....48......41......87.........5.6............3..............1.2..........0.5...............1.7 Takeaways....For those that think he has good numbers because he was at Mercer ...it just isn't true. His numbers are similar to or better than his SC numbers. His FG% has improved (mainly due to improved 2P shooting)...His FTs are better too. Rebs and Blks are the same. Assts are up...Stls are slightly up and TOs are down. Bottom line... I don't usually do a review on an "interest" player but this guy is good enough to do a pre review. Let's get him
  15. As Brian said above, the 3pt line is the same... One other thing I wanted to clarify was the slash line I used above. The international slash line is different than the US slash line.... The international uses 2P/ 3P / FT...the US uses FG ( 2P +3P) / 3P / FT. To make things easier to compare I converted his International slash into a US slash. So the 36/ 21 / 70 is the US slash. An advantage he has over the average HS player is that he is already shooting at the college arc and won't have to adjust. Some HS players adjust easily to the new distance ...others don't. Rashad Williams struggled not just with the Bills but 2 years before he got here . Yet when he was a college freshman, he shot lights out. Why? Because he couldn't adjust to the new 3p distance which was increased between his freshman and soph years. Crespin won't have to adjust to a new 3P line but will have to get his 3P numbers up. One encouraging sign is in postseason play (4 games) his 3P numbers were up to 28%. Hopefully, if he comes here, his numbers would continue to improve.
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