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The Wiz

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About The Wiz

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    The Wizard of Odds

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  1. I have some concerns about Cook. The 38.4% from his second season was from the old, shorter line. The 35% from last year is not valid due to the small sample size....he only made 14 threes, not enough to assign a grade. In fact of the the 5 seasons , he played only 2 ( the 2nd and 3rd seasons) are considered large enough to make an evaluation. The computer is projecting for the coming season (assuming he makes at least 25 threes) he will shoot between 32.3% and 32.9%....which puts him at D+ . To be a value added player at SLU, a Billiken player needs to shoot at least 34.3% from the arc. ..
  2. The simple answer is yes. Here is the long answer..... In the chart below, we will look at how 2 and 3Pt shots have been affected by moving the arc back. I particularly want to focus on 3 P shot value. 3P shots are more valuable shots than 2P shots. Exactly 50% more. The questions are... when is it worth taking the 3P shot ....who is taking it ...how has the extra distance affected the 3....and most importantly for this thread, who should we be looking for as a transfer. Let's look at the numbers....These will be team stats from all D1 schools....note that these numbers are
  3. Good stuff.... I would make 1 footnote. When looking at individual player stats, sample size is important. You would not want to rate a player who has only taken and made 1 FG , one 3P and 1 FT and comes up with a score of 300.Here is what is generally considered a qualifying sample size in D1. 100 FGM 25 3PM 50 FTM So based on those sample sizes the only player qualifying is Perkins ....well above the 163.5 for an A+. Also, a number of Bills players qualify on individual parts of the slash without qualifying for the whole line. For instance , Jimerson's 39.4% fro
  4. The 3 Pt foul shot is relatively rare when compared to all foul shots taken. I don't have any data that separates it out. Observationally, 3 P shooters tend to be better foul shooters....since 71.1 is C rated I would say 75% in general would be a good guess.
  5. It was 180....RM use to say he would take a 180 player ....sight unseen. For a comparison ...on my system which rates all D1 players and then grades them on a curve ...an A+ player (D1) during the RM years while at SLU was 162.8. ( 47.6 / 39.1 / 76.1 ) which explains why he would take a player sight unseen. A 180 player would be like a AAA. Again for comparison ....adjusting for the new 3 pt line ...an A+ player in 2021 would be 163.5 ( 47.8 / 37.7 / 78 ). Overall in D1 ... FG% about the same.....3P% down and FT% up since the RM years. Btw...The upcoming season will be th
  6. https://sports.yahoo.com/sean-miller-firing-college-basketball-losing-ncaa-case-235343119.html
  7. The 20-21 season will go down as one of the strangest in Bills history...and a season of lost opportunity...and that is saying a lot. We started the season off late. This gave us an additional 2 weeks of preseason hype. The great thing was ....we actually lived up to the hype...getting off to a great start with wins over LSU and NCSt and our only loss to Minn in what I consider one of the most difficult venues for an away team. Yes , those preseason forecasts of an A-10 championship and going to the Dance were on track . And then it happened.... 'Twas the n
  8. It seems everyone agrees he needs to become more efficient including me. Here is a quote from the Oakland Post last month after a good night ( 5 of 10 from 3 range) against Youngstown St. “My teammates did a fantastic job getting the ball to me when I was holding in my sweet spot,” Williams said. “I decided to return the favor and try to make things happen and try to help us win.” That statement coupled with a 0.9 season asst /gm average indicated he was " the man" whether he was having a good or a bad night. I think with more options at SLU (others who can shoot 3s) his attempts
  9. I agree he does have sweet stroke and ...and yes, Oakland sucked in his 2 yrs there....14-19 (8-10 conf) & 12-18 (10-10). The problem with that theory is that Clev St. was even worse than Oakland....13-21 (5-13) and yet that is where he had his good shooting percentage. ...Note: both teams are Horizon Conf....After his freshman year, he still had his sweet stroke ...but the shot had to travel 1 ft 1 3/4 inches farther. The numbers went down for the majority of players last year....and this year they came back a little.......same thing happened last time they moved the line back. It
  10. Here is my take on Williams.... First, let's look at some numbers.... 2021....these are all per gm...13.6pts....0.9 assts....0.8stls....1.5 TOs...1.5 reb Now let's look at some slashes....numbers and grades Remember the important numbers are the 3s as over 3/4 of his shots are 3s 2021.....34.5/33.9/78.7....F-/ C+ / A....28 gm...28min/gm 2020...34.3/ 32.3/ 85.5...F- /C- / A+...15 gm...38 min/gm 2019...40.5 / 40.8 / 76.7....F- / A / B+...31 gm...23 min/gm Now let's look at the 4 most significant games of 2021 for Oakland and Williams part in them...
  11. Wasn't me ...this is the first time I have been on a game thread...any game thread. The only reason, I looked now was because I was wondering why anyone would put up a 4 month old game thread.
  12. I have Zags over UCLA by 11 Bay over Hou by 2
  13. He finished 10th ITN in 3P%....His 3PM were around double the 9 players ahead of him....77% of his shots are 3s. If you are looking for a 3pt guy ....Here he is.
  14. 101 year old Sister Jean's pregame prayer before the Loyola / Illini game....Lifted right off The Wiz's computer model. “As we play the Fighting Illini, we ask for special help to overcome this team and get a great win,” Sister Jean said to her team before the game. “We hope to score early and make our opponents nervous. We have a great opportunity to convert rebounds as this team makes about 50% of layups and 30% of its 3 points. Our defense can take care of that…” I told her to mention turnovers but she was in a hurry to get to her seat.
  15. The return of rust. After a 2 week layoff ...we played like it. But it wasn't just us...St. B also went cold in the 1st half in their loss. Had VCU played their game, they too would have been cold. Hmm.... what happened here. I believe the shortening of the season plus a 2 week layoff caused the coldness. Teams go cold after 2 weeks or more of layoffs We saw that in our 4 week layoff and you can see it repeated over and over through out Div 1. I place this blame directly on the A-10...by changing the schedule...shortening the season and moving the A-10 tourney up... they set up the A-10 to
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