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The Wiz

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    The Wizard of Odds

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  1. Before we get started with the game ...let's clear up a few things. 1...Double bye....Is there still a chance for a double bye?...Yes and no... Yes, statistically it is still possible...If Richmond loses to St. J at Rich and we win on Mon against UMass ...we get the double bye...I have Rich by 17 over St. J ...so realistically no. 2...Top 4 in A10..we needed Dav to lose this afternoon to have a good chance to finish in the top 4. ...Dav squeezed us out by the slightest of margins...assuming we win against UMass...the tie breaker goes to Dav 57.1% to 55.6%...
  2. The double bye is the best outcome for the Bills. When playing consecutive games, it is way easier to win 2 games in a row than 3 . Three is even harder if the team you are playing has played 1 game less. VCU winning is the only viable scenario. As Bay pointed out above, there is the St. J /Rich game on Mon ..Rich at home....not looking good for that game. Rich will be a heavy favorite. In today's game, I have VCU and Dav even....Hyland and Curry still listed as questionable...which means even if they play they may not be at 100%. So how is this game even? Dav is playing at home and t
  3. First, I would like to welcome the new French or should I say the old French. The last 2 games have been way better than the first 7 games after the pause...more pts...more rebs...more blocks...more French. Let's see what happened tonight....Bold is from original post in this thread. Rich has a good starting 5....there is no depth ...not much behind those 5....we need to use our depth to either wear them down or get them in foul trouble ....So true...our bench played 63 min...theirs played 25 min...big difference...and when did it make that difference...in the final 3 1/2 min when
  4. It depends.... It depends on the VCU / Dav game tomorrow afternoon. We want Dav to lose so that a win on Mon against UMass gives us the double bye in the A10 tourney...It is a lot easier to win 2 games next week than 3 . Also with the double bye, I think winning the 2 games may be enough to get into the Dance, even if we don't win the championship game. Obviously, if we win, we not only get the auto bid but a better seeding too. The VCU / Dav game looks like it will be even. Here is what I want you to do....I will put up the UMass game tomorrow....then ask me that same q
  5. When it comes to turning the ball over VCU is an F+ team....When we played them they were averaging over 15 TOs per game....The night we played them they had a season low of 7...That was a difference maker.
  6. As bad as yesterday's loss was...today was a good day for The Bills. St. Joe crushed Dayton 97-84 and The Bonnies beat Dav 56 -53....Both Day and Dav were favored to win. The ball is back in the Bills court....A win by the Bills over Rich on Fri and a loss by Dav on Sat to VCU sets up a showdown on Mon with UMass ....If we win the UMass game....we finish top 4. It ain't over till it's over....Yogi Go Bills
  7. It is true , the numbers look pretty good BUT it is only a small sample size plus 3 of the games were very weak Here is how they grade out now.... SIU-e....F LSU....A Ark-PB....F-...4th WITN Cen Ark....F Ind St.....B- The grades posted are as of today....It is interesting to note that our opponents grades have changed very little in the last 2-3 months. To your point, no matter how you measure it , we are not playing at the same offensive level now as we were back then.
  8. The VCU game was as close to even as you can be....not just the score but most of the stats were very close....even when we dominated on the boards, our TOs canceled that stat out. If we had got 1 more anything (1 more reb...1 more VCU TO...1 more basket ...1 more possession ..etc) we win. Truly a game of inches. But the basketball gods didn't smile on us. So is all lost......No...there is still 1 last door that can open to the good scenario (top 4 finish) We need to win our next 2 games ...assuming we do that...then Dav needs to lose their next 2 ...starting with a loss today against St
  9. From the original post (Bold ).... I expect this game to be a tight defensive low scoring battle...70 pts might be enough to win..... Lead changed 18 times...but here was the clincher....this game was a 1 possession game for the final 14min 22sec. It doesn't get any closer than that. And to finish it off... lose 2 key players in the final minute and a half and have the resulting 4 FTM be the difference in the game just added insult to injury. We could also look at the slash line... 48/37/73. ...42/30/61....had we made any number on the slash line ...we win...What makes this even wo
  10. My guess is that Hyland will sit till the tourney unless he is needed at the last game this Sat against Dav....Needed means that if VCU loses tonight...depending on how the other games go between now and Fri ...VCU could be knocked out of the top 4. If that is the case ...he will at least attempt to play on Sat.
  11. This tilts the spread in favor of the The Bills...The Bills need to keep an eye on Williams and Baldwin....they will try to fill the gap.
  12. Since there has been no official announcement...he is classified as questionable...and the model assumed he will play half his average time...which in this case is 16 min. If he sits out the model will tilt in favor of The Bills.
  13. You have your choice...You can read The Wiz's Preconference Forecast 1/24/ 21...which is a past , present and future of the season....or....if you need more info you can read...The Wiz's Preconference Forecast 12/27/20 which also shows the outlook for all the teams. The dates are in the title of the threads. On Dec 24, we were A overall trending at A.......today we are A- trending at B+.
  14. Well, that game against Day was painful....time to move on...there is still work to be done. The good news is we are still an A- team ...which means we are still in the running for a bid (Last 5 in). The bad news is we have little room for error. ...The math has simplified. First, let's clear one thing up. It is mathematically impossible for us to win the A-10. But we do have a chance to finish in the top 4 ....double bye....win 2 games....wait a week and then play for the A10 Championship game in Dayton. If we win...auto bid. However, even if we lose that game in Day, we would st
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