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The Wiz

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  1. I noticed, even though Dayton was just barely able to eke out a win in OT against us ...it was good for moving up 6 places in the standings to 7th place in the AP Poll....In other news, S Hall moved from 18th to 10th and Aub dropped from 4th to 16th. SH in my ranking and grades is now A+ (6th) & A+ (2nd)...Day is now...A+ ((15th) & A+ (6th)... & Aub at A+(16th ) & A- . The first grade and ranking is the overall and the 2nd G &R is the trending line. The Bills SOS is now B-.
  2. No question about it ...Gund had a great game...in fact their top 3 had a great game...Gud, M Jones and C Collins had a slash of 64/63/100....18-28/ 10-18/ 1-1.....an extraordinary line and while the FTs were a small sample size the team shot 89% from the charity stripe...8-9. This is what I meant when I said "they were fading but they can rise up and swat you down."...They took a whopping thirty 3 pt shots against Fordham...And while our 3 pt defense hasn't been great this year , it has gotten better...with some flashes of goodness. This will be a good test of that 3D. Back to your point....I am projecting we hold Gud to 10pts. and Dav to 33% from 3....we need for them to play our game...not vice versa.
  3. Before we get to the headline...a disappointing loss for The Bills at Dayton but nonetheless a great basketball game. 13th rated Dayton trailing in the final second of OT throws up a prayer and with only 1 chance in 3 of making it, they sink it for the win. That is as close to winning a game as you can get without winning it. The Bills actually outplayed them most of the game....No shame here...If you need more post game analysis, see the Dayton spread thread post game post. On to Davidson...so what is with the headline?? I didn't want to declare a winner for this game in the headline as I know there are some people on the board who only read the headline. This is one of the most difficult games to handicap. On the surface both teams are a B...a close game...teams are very even with the spread showing Dav by 3, taking the game on the home field advantage. But wait, there is more....The Bills are trending at B+ while the Wildcats are fading at C....This sets up a different spread which shows Bills by 5. Thus , the reason there is no winner listed in the headline. I think most handicappers will be going with Dav by 3....For those that like to wager , there may be an opportunity here... To see what is going on , let's start with the injury report before the report card. Injury report... Czerapowitz...1/10/20...Out indefinitely...Hip injury Frampton........1/8/20...out for the season...personal leave of absence Prichett...1/16/20...out for the season...after a knee scope, he will likely miss the rest of the season Thatch...1/8/20....out indefinitely...no change Now let's look at the report card.... ..............................SLU...........................Dav.................................................................SLU...............................Dav ................................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF............... PPG.........................C+...............................C-................................................................B......................................C+ FG%.........................C+...............................C+............................................................ ..B+.....................................D 3Pt%........................D+..............................B--................................................................D+......................................C- FT%.........................F-. 2nd worst ITN.......A... ............................................................................................... Reb.........................A..................................F.................................................................C.......................................B OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb Bills Offensive reb....A+....9th ITN....up Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse)....UP ....no change.......... DOWN......3P def Top 100 ITN Stls....Goodwin ...31st.....down Assts...Y Collins....38th.....down Rebs...Goodwin..15th.....French...16th.....unchanged and up Off Reb....French ...16th...Goodwin...60th Def reb...Goodwin ...18th...French...42nd Blks.....French....16th...unchanged FT%...C Collins...49th Remember, this report card is based on a full season and doesn't fully reflect the fading situation of Dav. WWN2D2W....Stop Grady...hold him to 12 pts....Jones is their 3pt guy...hold him to 35%......we are one of the best rebounding teams...they are one of the worst...dominate the boards by double figures....Match them in TOs...stay around 11....Hold them to 60 pts. The closer to 60, the better are chances of winning....Stay away from fouling them...especially C Collins..88.4%...and Lee 86.7%. Bottom line...We should take this game...but this is far from a gimme...Dav may be down but they are not out...they have just enough life left to rise up and swat us down....We need to not make unforced errors . Dav doesn't TO the ball much ...so neither can we. We need to draw fouls to get our FTA up and neutralize their FT advantage....we miss a lot but we don't miss them all....We need to beat them on FTM. Did I mention we need to dominate the boards...if the rebs are close then that is a bad sign. They have a weak defense...let's take advantage of that. This game is our game to win...Let's get back on the winning track.
  4. While it was disappointing to lose the game, it still was a great game....I am sure ESPN was very happy with the way the game played out....not to mention , many 1st time Bills fans at the game who may be back as a result of the excitement and high energy of the game. So let's take a look at what happened.... From the original post of this thread.... the trend line shows this as a close game...that falls in line with our style of play...we play to the competition...which is a good thing in this case...avoid TOs...stay around 11....To me this was the major fail in the game....TO diff was 5 in favor of Day....worth 10 pts...in addition we had 17 TOs ...way too many....usually 16+ spells doom. Let's look at the slashes....SLU...45/33/54...Day....45/36/ 68...and many people will go...aha...there it is...the FT shooting...but not really...I have pointed out in a number of threads the FT shooting does not hurt us because we get more shots than the other team...in this case, we out shot them at the charity line....FTM...20-13...+7 for the Bills.... The doubters say...a few more FTM and we win...We average in the mid 50s in FTs...it is what it is....tonight we shot 54%...pretty much on target. ...Well if it wasn't FTs, what was it?...FG% matched...both at 45%...which btw Day is the #1 shooting team ITN at around 53%...no small feat to hold them to 45%....in the end the real difference in the slash was the 3P shooting...they made 1 extra shot which put them at 36%... with out that extra shot the 3pt shooting matches up too...Care to take a guess when that 3P shot was made? Let's look at the rest of WWN2D2W.... Stop the Top...easier said then done...however, we don't need to shut him down...just slow him down a bit...if this is a close game, trimming just a few pts from his scoring could be a difference maker....Hold Toppin to 15 pts and under 50% shooting...We pretty much held him in check...44% vs his usual over 60%...adjusting the 15 pts for OT becomes 17pts...he had 20pts ...good enough considering he was shooting 17% below average. Win the rebound battle by 6... We won it by 12...Dayton's largest deficit of the season....The stat that had us winning most of the game. Stop Watson from the arc ...he is a great 3pt shooter when left alone...let's bother him and keep him under 40%....check...we held him to 40% Like the Rich game we need to contain their offense ...slow things down...Hold them to 52 shots...their slash...46/31/70....Hold them to 67 pts ...the lower their score the better chance we have to win...We almost did this...had we held them to 67 we would have won in regulation...adjusting for OT, we needed to hold them to 75...which again would have been a win...but when you almost hold them ...you almost win...well at least the numbers were right. And finally the Bills need to make some shots...at least four 3PM...slash...48/33/60...we only made 2 but we did shoot 33%...so we will call that a draw...of course if we make the slash ..we win...we got very close to the slash...and of course , we got very close to a win. Bottom line.....With 2 tenths of a second left in OT we were beating the 13 ranked team ITN (#1 shooting team ITN) and they took a long desperation 3 ...they had 1 chance in 3 of winning the game at that point and they did....This is as close to winning a game as you can come without actually winning it....I will leave you again with the quote from the Bottom line above...Bottom line...Most odds makers will give this game to Dayton by 6...However the trend line shows this as a close game...that falls in line with our style of play...we play to the competition...which is a good thing in this case...And we did play to the competition tonight ...we played like the 13th team ITN...and that is a good thing
  5. What a great win at Richmond....check out the Richmond spread thread to see my post game analysis ....not only to see the how and why of the win but also important is that the win is relevant to the Dayton game...We need to do a lot of the same things in this game as we did in the Rich game and at the same pace or better. Rich was a great offensive team....Dayton is Rich on steroids. We remain as a B team....unchanged since the SIU game however we are trending at A-,...Unfortunately, Day is not only an A+ team but they are also trending at A+...The trending spread, however is only 3 pts in favor of Day....so this game is winnable. Let's check the report card to see what we are up against.... ..............................SLU...........................Day.................................................................SLU...............................Day ................................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF............... PPG.........................C+...............................A+...6th ITN..............................................B......................................B FG%.........................C+...............................A+...1st ITN........................................... ..B+.......................................C+ 3Pt%........................D+..............................A-................................................................C-.......................................C- FT%.........................F-. 2nd worst ITN.......B... ............................................................................................... Reb.........................A..................................C-.................................................................C.......................................A OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb Bills Offensive reb....A+....10th ITN....Down Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse)....UP ....PPG....FG%...3P% def........... DOWN....3P% Top 100 ITN Stls....Goodwin ...29th.....up Assts...Collins....34th.....up Rebs...Goodwin..15th.....French...21th....down and down Blks.....French....16th...up PPG....Toppin....33rd Assts...Crutcher...52nd FG%...Toppin....34th 3P%....Watson...46th Of note...offense continues a gradual improvement but 3P shooting is fading away.....Meanwhile the defense is strengthening ...lead by 3P defense. Injury report.... Thatch...G...1/8/20...out indefinitely...He is sidelined with myalgia in his lower leg muscles.There is currently no time table for his return. C. Johnson...F...1/10 /20...out for season...medically withdrawn ...PCS....post concussion syndrome and Mono Sissoko...C...11/11/19...out for season...redshirt year. WWN2D2W.....Stop the Top...easier said then done...however, we don't need to shut him down...just slow him down a bit...if this is a close game, trimming just a few pts from his scoring could be a difference maker....Hold Toppin to 15 pts and under 50% shooting...Win the rebound battle by 6...Stop Watson from the arc ...he is a great 3pt shooter when left alone...let's bother him and keep him under 40%....TO differential at least 2 ...Like the Rich game we need to contain their offense ...slow things down...Hold them to 52 shots...their slash...46/31/70....Hold them to 67 pts ...the lower their score the better chance we have to win...And finally the Bills need to make some shots...at least four 3PM...slash...48/33/60 Bottom line...Most odds makers will give this game to Dayton by 6...However the trend line shows this as a close game...that falls in line with our style of play...we play to the competition...which is a good thing in this case...avoid TOs...stay around 11 and avoid the cold spell ...stay around the projected slash...and we could be looking at a W.
  6. Based on the actual spread of 14...it is safe to say he is OK.
  7. Injury report... B Francis... G... 1/14/20....Questionable....right shoulder injury....it is uncertain if he will play Sat against GM.
  8. This matches my info that came out about a half hour after I posted the above injury report...Just now having time to post it....................... 1/13/20......Probable...Toppin....F...Left ankle sprain...It is likely he will suit up against VCU
  9. Yes....The headline spread of 8 assumes he is out....The trend spread assumes he plays ...Day by 13.....,If he just partially plays.....8-13 pts Day Here is the official injury report Day...... Toppin...F....Questionable.....1/12/20...Left ankle sprain....It is unclear if he will suit up against VCU C Johnson....F....Out for season...1/10/20....He has medically withdrawn from the team as he recovers from PCS ( post concussion syndrome} and mono Sissoko...C...Out for season...11/11/19...He has decided to use this season as a red shirt year. VCU.... Crowfield...G....Out indefinitely,....12/15/19...Broken wrist...He is expected to miss an undetermined amount of time
  10. I thought since I have to wait on this game before I can do Friday's Bills spread , I would do a spread on this game......An important game for the A-10....an important game for The Bills. Dayton is an A team....VCU is a B+ team.....If we look at the trending numbers...VCU stays at B+...Dayton moves up to A+....the spread widens to 13 pts in favor of the Flyers.
  11. Big win for The Bills....might be moving up on our grade....,stay tuned Well, for the 3rd game in a row FTs win it for The Bills. As I pointed out in the GW thread, the hack-a-Bill strategy doesn't work....The flaw is the assumption that we can't shoot foul shots...at all....if you give us twice as many shots ...you, the opponent have lost your advantage...FTA....Rich 9....Bills....23....FTM....Rich...8....Bills 16....The diff is not only neutralized but costs the Spyders....8 pts....FT% ...Rich...89%...Bills ...70% (nice)....Rich wins the FT% battle ...but so what....we win the FTM war. From the original post..... WWN2D2W........A lot.....This will be a tough game ,,, a high powered offense and a pretty good D.....3 three pt shooters and one of the best FT teams ITN (3rd)....Their only weakness is rebounding....we will have to dominate reb by at least 7...contain scoring ...slow the game down...hold them to no more than 65 pts...the lower the score the better our chances....score first and then go into a stall...just kidding on the stall...Don't foul them...it is like an auto basket if they go to the line....protect the ball....we need to match them in TOs....no more than 11....which will be tough as Gilyard leads the nation in steals....finally a good slash...48/33/60 Their three 40% 3pt shooters came in at a combined 22%....excellent Ft shooting...89%...neutralized...see 2nd paragraph above Rebs by 7....We dominated by 9....huge Contain scoring ...slow the game down...no more than 65 pts for Rich....the lower the score the better chance to win....58 pts says it all Don't foul them....And the Bills didn't....9 FTA Protect the ball...11 TOs........we not only turn in a great 12 TOs ....but force them into a season high 15....TO diff worth 6 pts. slash 48/33/60....The only black mark for the evening was 3Pt shooting....and even that worked out OK....First...19% for Rich 3pt shooting...An important number which help neutralize our poor shooting...not bad for a Bills 3P defense rated as D......I knew we could do better......Second...like in the GW game we limited 3 pt shooting...only 11 shots....so damage was minimal ....and finally....Good FT shooting and excellent 2 pt shooting more than made up for the weak 3 pointers. All in all ...a very good evening...played a smart game and did everything we were supposed to do....So what happens when you do everything you are supposed to do? Here is what happens....Pts in the paint.....48-26.........2nd chance pts....14-2....Fast break pts...17-1....Some pretty impressive numbers.....oh yeah, 1 more number ....you win by 15 pts on an away court and turn the spread around by 21 pts. Bottom line....We play to the competition....This time, up to the competition....we need to keep it going as the next game will be an even bigger step up as we play 15th rated Dayton.
  12. This is a confusing part of the report card.....I always put a short explanation below it but it still can be confusing.....Rebounds under the offense category refers to total rebounds per game .....The rebounds listed under the defense refers to the total rebounds per game allowed to the opponent. In the case of The Bills, we take down 40.9 rebs/ gm ( A )....The Bills allow opposing teams to take down 32.4 rebs/ gm ( C- )....I do it that way because many data services list it that way. This year, I have separated out offensive reb below the report card because we are leaders (A+ ) ITN.....9th....12.1 rebs/gm....Those are actual off rebs....Hope that clears it up. To answer your question ...is that significant? It is because we are a great rebounding team and they are poor....Is it enough to offset the superior FT% of Richmond?...The 7 rebs is part of the formula of a mix of factors to determine ...What We Need 2 Do 2 Win...WWN2D2W....Rebs don't exactly correlate to FTs ....but here is what I will tell you that will be significant....10 & 6....10 reb diff in our favor should offset their FT advantage......6 or less reb advantage...and their FT advantage starts to grow.
  13. I mentioned that we need to out rebound by at least 7. The reason I didn't go higher is that Golden can be a rebounding machine....if we can contain him( 6 or less) then we could dominate the boards by double figures.... We also need to control his scoring...no more than 13pts. ....while they do have others that can score controlling Golden on the boards and scoring would be a big step toward victory.
  14. He is out for the season...there will be no additional updates on him for this season.
  15. A painful but nice win over GW. Another game where The Bills played to their competition. If that holds true, this upcoming game should be a good one as we raise our game up a notch. If not it could be a long evening. Not to harp on a subject but FTs will play a big part in this game. The Bills are 2nd worst ITN...Richmond is 3rd best ITN....largest FT spread ever....In % we shoot 57% ...they shoot 80%. While we could see a repeat of the GW "hack a Bill" strategy it wont show up right away or at all if it is not a close game. The reason for this is the Spyders have a good offense and have many ways to win. Let's check the report card to see what we are up against.... ..............................SLU...........................Rich.............................................SLU...............................Rich ................................................OFF................................................................................DEF............... PPG.........................C..............................B................................................B......................................C+ FG%.........................C...............................B+........................................... ..B+...................................B- 3Pt%........................C-..............................A.................................................D.....................................B FT%.........................F-. 2nd worst ITN.....A+...3rd ITN ....................................................................................... Reb.........................A..................................D................................................C-....................................F+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb Bills Offensive reb....A+....9th ITN....unchanged Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse)....UP ....FTs up from worst to 2nd worst...thank god for Army...a team that can't shoot straight........... DOWN....PPG Top 100 ITN Stls....Goodwin ...30th.....down Assts...Collins....37th...down Rebs...Goodwin..14th.....French...19th...up and up Blks.....French....19th...up Stls.....Gilyard....1st Assts....Gilyard...33rd Richmond ....fewest TOs...10th ITN Injury report... Ruch...None reported SLU.....Thatch....Out indefinitely....Myalgia...lower leg muscles....No timetable for return WWN2D2W........A lot.....This will be a tough game ,,, a high powered offense and a pretty good D.....3 three pt shooters and one of the best FT teams ITN (3rd)....Their only weakness is rebounding....we will have to dominate reb by at least 7...contain scoring ...slow the game down...hold them to no more than 65 pts...the lower the score the better our chances....score first and then go into a stall...just kidding on the stall...Don't foul them...it is like an auto basket if they go to the line....protect the ball....we need to match them in TOs....no more than 11....which will be tough as Gilyard leads the nation in steals....finally a good slash...48/33/60 Bottom line....If we play a full 40 min of focused basketball and keep the score low...we can win ....If we go cold or start turning the ball over....it is over Focus and win....Go Bills
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