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The Wiz

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  1. Sorry my bad....I must have confused "sson" with "ssen". Linssen's FT numbers are 65-93 (69.9%) and a real sample size, finally....his numbers should be usable. Substituting the "ssen" numbers for "sson" numbers raises the Bills hypothetical FT % in your example to 60.7% (still F- ) and moves us from worst to 3rd worst in D1...we dug a deep FT hole last season. Even though Linssen is a C- shooter at the FT line....he should be a big help at the charity stripe to a team that is averaging 57%
  2. I had a feeling your request was not going to turn out well for the numbers but you asked.... First let's start with your side note on the bottom....Goodwin shot 53.8% for the season at the charity line....in the last 5 games he was 14-26...53.8%...so nothing to see here....I will use your words.... that you may have suffered some "quarantine psychosis". Moving on to Bell ....he was 37-58 (63.8%)for the year.....but didn't "catch fire" till the final 8 games when he shot 14-18 from the charity stripe. ...3 of the final 8 games he had no shots. So you have a small sample size of 14-18. In fact, a full sample size in FTs is considered 50 FTM....so Bell didn't even have a full sample size for the year. It will be about half way into the coming season before you can make a judgement on what kind of FT shooter Bell is. .....BUT......I will play along....I will take the 77.7% (14-18) and project it into next season....that nets him 8 extra FTM. Moving on to Jimerson....he played only 10 games...shot an impressive 6-7 (85.7%) from the line....but again a far cry from a sample size.....BUT....again I will play along and project him into the coming season as an 85.7% FT shooter....net gain....an extra 12 FTM As far as Linssen is concerned ...this is a total shot in the dark....BUT...continuing to play along....He seems to be a Jimerson type player....I will assign him a FT% of 80% ( he has shot around that in HS) and he will add about 16 FTM. So those 3 players in Bizzaro Billiken World could add an extra 36 FTM next year.....and this takes me back to the first sentence of this post....not going to turn out well in the numbers. The extra 36 FTM raises the Bills overall FT ave to 60.1% (still F- ) and lifts us from worst in D-1 to 2nd worst....This assumes that Ark-Pine Bluff doesn't also improve next year. Hey, I will take the extra 36 pts (which may be a stretch). Actually every FTM next year will be a bonus. Hope that answered your question.
  3. You are correct...not much of a difference BUT still significant....I think the most important numbers from my original post are ..... 2007-08.....35.2% 3P% 2008-09.......34.4% 2018-19.......35.2% 2019-20........33% In both cases 3P% dropped after the distance increased. The drop in the 1st instance was 0.8% and took 10 years to come back....this time the drop was 2.2% more than double the 1st drop. I think this was part of the strategy by the NCAA to downplay the long ball. To tamp it down and keep it down for a longer time. Now that we have figured that out , it is time to leave reality and enter Billiken Bizzaro World...where things never seem to make sense or fit the pattern. The number 1 stat rule in basketball is the farther you are from the basket the lower your shot percentage will be. Let's look at the Bills numbers...... 2018-19....The Bills shoot 31.3% from the arc..... Then the next season we push the line out....everyone drops 2.5-3.5% Well not everyone..... 2019-20.....The Bills shoot 34%....Welcome to Billiken Bizzaro World. The overall 33% 3P shooting is projected to go up this coming season as teams adjust to the distance. With the Bills adding extra firepower plus a full season of Jimerson there is no reason we can't shoot 36-37% this year which would add an additional 3 P basket every other game ....1.5 pts /gm....If we can shoot FTs at a grade D level (67.7%) (again good FT shooters coming in) that would add an additional 2 pts /gm. .....Total 3 1/2 pts / gm is significant and would add some extra victories. Bottom line....Things are looking up numbers wise.
  4. Last year's 3PA....38.7%/ 61.3%....this year.....37.6%/62.4% The actual 3PM dropped from 7.7/gm to 7.2/gm Overall FGA remained about the same. Another way to look at the data is to project last year's data onto this year's averages....ie how would last year's averages (C grades) look on this year's report card... ..............2018-19................2019-20 FGA............C...........................C 3PA.............C..........................C+ 3PM...........C...........................B-
  5. It is unusual for me to make an appearance during baseball season....but since there is no baseball season, this gives me a chance to catch up on Bills stats. As you all know the biggest change in D1 basketball this year was the change in the 3 pt line....increasing the distance to the international line which is 22 ft 1 3/4 in. As a result of this, I have had to ditch my 11 year old data base of shooting stats.... 2008-09 was the last change in the 3 pt line.. If the goal of the NCAA was to knock down long distance shooting....then mission accomplished. Here is the new chart (2019-20) with grades and %s. There are 3 numbers in every column....the 1st # represents the previous 11 years...the 2nd # represents this year...the 3rd # is the difference. .....................................3P%.................................FG%...............................2P% A+.....................41%...37.5%... -3.5%............50.3...47.1...-3.2.........55.9...54.7...-1.2 A.......................39.8.....36.7%...-3.1..............48.9...46.5...-2.4.........54.7....53.4...-1.3 A-......................38.7....35.7.......-3.0...............48.2...45.8...-2.4.........53.3....52.7...-0.6 B+......................38.1....35.1......-3.0................47.6...45.1...-2.5.........52.3....51.9...-0.4 B........................37.1.....34.6......-2.5................47.1...44.6...-2.5.........51.6....51.2...-0.4 B-........................36.6.....34.1......-2.5...............46.5....44.1...-2.4.........51.1....50.3...-0.8 C+.......................36.1.....33.6.....-2.5................46.0....43.7...-2.3.........50.4.....49.6....-0.8 C.........................35.6.....32.9.....-2.7.................45.3...43.1...-2.2..........49.4....49.1....-0.3 C-........................35.1......32.3....-2.8..................44.7...42.5...-2.2..........48.8....48.4....-0.4 D+.......................34.5.......31.8....-2.7..................44.2...42.0...-2.2...........48.2...47.8....-0.4 D.........................33.9........31.3...-2.6...................43.5...41.4...-2.1...........47.4...46.9...-0.5 D-........................33.3........30.5...-2.8...................43.0...40.8...-2.2...........46.6....46.2..-0.4 F+........................32,8........30.0...-2.8...................42.5....40.4...-2.1..........45.7....45.5...-0.2 F...........................32.1........29.1...-3.0...................41.2....39.4...-1.8..........44.6....44.7...+0.1 F-..........................27.8........24.8...-3.0....................34.2...35.4...+1.2..........37.7....40.2...+2.5% A few generalizations..... If you were really a good shooter...this change hurt you more than lesser players. 2P shooting was down slightly because the outer edge of the 2 shot was also a little farther out. If you were a really, really bad team ....your 2P shooting actually improved. ...2 factors here... a lot of variability at the very bottom so not real meaningful ...also it could be that if you can't shoot 3s you take more 2s....even though you can't shoot 2s either....40% is a lot better than 25%. Last year's 3P reg season shooting was 35.2%....in the experiment during last year's NIT ...shooting from the new distance was 33%....this year's grade C came in at 32.9 - 33.6%....right on target. In 2007-08 season 3P shooting finished at 35.2% ...same as last year....2008-09 after the last distance change the % dropped to 34.4%. So where does this leave the Bills?.......45.4/ 34 /49.7.....FG%/ 3P% / 2P%......B+ /C+ / C+.....Starting from this solid base and bringing in some additional shooters means we should be an offensive force next season.....Adding only a couple of % pts to the above slash changes the report card to A+/ A-/ A-.....If we can shoot C (average) from the FT line....that alone adds 3 pts /gm. Looking good ...Go Bills
  6. https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/briannasacks/coronavirus-death-toll-cdc-misinformation
  7. Virus Madness Tourney The Elite 8....Listed by seed #...from a field of 80 vaccines...first 7 have all started human trials or are about to start human trials. To find out more about the teams and players...check out the article below....it lists 76 teams (4 have been added in recent days.)...click on the "76" in the article if you want to see them all 1....Oxford U/Astra Zeneca...they have an early lead 2....Moderna/ Lonza.....close behind 3...BioNTech/ Pfizer..... 4...Catalent/JNJ 5...Inovio Pharma...US 6...CanSino Biologics...China 7...Sinovac Bio...China 8...Beijing Inst....China Hon Mention....Gilead Science....Remdesivir...not a vax but the only approved treatment at this time. One thing is clear in looking at the list of 76-80 teams working on the virus...It is a world wide effort in money, time and brains. You will note that 3 of the top 8 teams are from China....as well as many other seeds in the top 80. I hope we can put aside any squabbles we have with China because if they turnout to be one of the winners it could be awkward. There is no we and they....there is only us ( all humankind) That is the way the virus looks at us ....only as "us" If we are going to beat the virus , it has to be a cooperative effort, whether you are talking about city, state, national or worldwide....we will only win if we work together......a good message for a basketball team ...a good message for all people everywhere. https://www.inverse.com/mind-body/coronavirus-vaccine-candidates-to-watch
  8. Gates is spending $250 million to find a vaccine .....he has an elite 8 he has picked out which he has not named publicly ( out of 80)...his bracket is ahead of mine.... He will build 8 factories so the elite can get started making vaccines.....he will then pick 1 or 2 winners and they will keep going....he will waste some money on extra manufacturing facilities but not time as he will not have to wait for a winner and then get started.
  9. A few more entries into the T3 (Trial Treatment Tourney....Virus Madness) sweet 16... Moderna (US Biotech) has added a new player...Lonza (Swiss Pharma),,,they landed nearly a 1/2 billion in funding from the NIH and skipped animal trials and have already started dosing people....The huge amount of cash plus a quick start on human trials plus Lonza as a manufacturing partner....100 milliom doses a month...Looking for an answer (hoping for a successful vaccine) by July....is good for a 2nd seed BioNTech/ Pfizer....Just started human trials ...good pickup in Pfizer.... 4th seed Catalent/ JNJ....cranking up quick ...human trials in Sept...vaccine in early 21...10th seed Bottom line...We don't need a World Champ...a Final 4 would be great...ie 4 vaccines that work..... all companies cranking out doses. https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/coronavirus-moderna-lonza-mrna-vaccine-manufacturing/577169/
  10. While the post I made above concerning a possible vaccine is a bright spot in the battle against the virus there is also a dark side. That dark side is "we" (U S pharmaceutical companies) don't want to participate with Oxford U or AZ (or anyone else) unless "we" are given worldwide rights. ...ie the ability to gouge. The problem with taking that attitude is we ( US citizens) will be last in line to get the drug if it is successful as AZ said they will give it first to the UK (there own people) followed by needy (low income) countries. And of course, if we develop our own treatment , we will have it at a much higher price than the $3 /dose OU/AZ will charge. The Corona relief bill that Congress just passed took out a provision to keep the price of treatments at a reasonable level. This is spelled out in the NYT article below. Another item in the article below talks about how we (US government through the National Institute of Health) do most of the research for drug companies ...both here and abroad. While the article mentions this phenomenon it doesn't yet know about the Oxford breakthrough because the article predated the research. Yet the article was right on as the current Oxford U study was conducted by the National institute of Health at the Rocky Mountain Lab in Montana paid for by you and me. Hopefully, we (US Pharma) will come around and do the right thing. Yes, I understand the drug companies are not charitable organizations. But this pandemic has cost them more (and will continue to cost them more) than they can make from some fat short term profits. It is in their interest too, to end the virus as quickly as possible. Bottom line....Vaccines aren't big money makers...once everyone gets sick or gets the vaccine ...it's all over and there is no need for the vaccine anymore. Checkout the article below.... https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/opinion/coronavirus-vaccine-cost.html
  11. Oxford University signs a new player... AstraZenica and locks down the #1 seed on the T3 .....Treatment Trial Tourney known as Virus Madness. They have already injected 100s of patients and hope to have results in 6-10 weeks. AZ is not waiting....They are picking up the ball now and starting to make the vaccine on the chance that it will work ....goal is to have 100 million doses by the end of the year....AZ will be providing the vaccine at cost (about $3/ dose) Now they just have to go play the game( do the trial) and win it (successful vaccine) https://www.marketwatch.com/story/astrazeneca-teams-up-with-oxford-university-to-develop-coronavirus-vaccine-first-results-from-human-trials-expected-in-june-or-july-2020-04-30
  12. I mentioned the original study on page 84 of this thread (Apr 16)...that's when I put Gilead/ remdesivir on my bracket....with the news today , I am going to move them up to the sweet 16...however I will give them a 16th seed...a game changer but as you point out not a silver bullet.
  13. I think you are right...I took that statement on the Rhesus monkey from Dr. Munster (interesting name) of the US National Institute of Health ...the researcher who conducted the experiment at the Rocky Mountain Lab in Montana for Oxford U. I looked it up....and we share 93% DNA with the Rhesus monkey....and 99% with the chimpanzee. So the Rhesus is close but not the closest ...but it is probably close enough to be a good test subject. In any case , it is a significant breakthrough in that it paves the way for the 6000 person trial in the next 30 days.
  14. Our 1st sweet 16 entrant in the Corona bracket goes to Oxford University......who just completed a Rhesus Macaque monkey (our closest relative) study...all monkeys were disease free 28 days after being given the school's new vaccine and then exposed to Coronavirus. ...this trial now leads to the 6000 person study which starts immediately....and will be completed by the end of May. This gains them entry into my T3 bracket....Treatment Trial Tourney bracket. A Final 4 possible by Sept (400,000 to be given the vaccine) ...with maybe a tourney winner ( Effective vaccine for the general public) before the end of the year Of course Oxford still has a number of games to play (always a chance for an upset).... Bottom line...We only need 1 team to win. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/world/europe/coronavirus-vaccine-update-oxford.html
  15. https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2020/04/08/handicapping-the-most-promising-of-267-potential-coronavirus-cures/ Here are the top 50 treatments (out of 267 ) under review ....not including the one I mentioned above as it came out 6 days after the article. Hmmm....Top 50 of 267 vs top 64 of 353 ......Maybe I should setup a bracket and see if we can predict a Final 4.
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