The Wiz

Which is why I have the WCC as a B- and the A-10 as a B+.

It is way too early to try and grade teams. But it is not too early to grade conferences. Conferences can change a little from season to season but generally the grades are stable. Grading a conference gives a sense of the upcoming competition. Of course, there are good teams in bad conferences and bad teams in good conferences. Nonetheless, in March, the selection committee looks at who you played AND what conference they are from. With that in mind , let's look at the conference to get a feel for what kind of schedule we have. As usual, teams that are not D1 are N.A. Non conf games graded by conference strength SC.......WCC....B- Avila....NA LoyM...WCC...B- WSU...AAC.....B Quin...MAAC...D UM-L..Am East..D+ JSU...SWAC.....F- SF...WCC........B- Ch St...NE.......F IL St...MVC.....B Woff...Sou.....C+ Gr Can...WCC...B- Will Wood...NA Not the best schedule...but there are a few things we can do... Get off to a good start...Win those first 3 D1 games Win all the B- and above games by double digits. It is not only who you beat but by how much. The Colgate effect. A few years ago Colgate playing in the weak Patriot Conference (F) had won a ton of games by huge point spreads and received a Dance bid. Of course, they received an auto bid from the NCAA with their conference championship. The interesting thing, though, was the NET had Colgate rated as 9th ITN. Nobody would confuse Colgate with Kansas or UConn except maybe the NET computer. It was that season that exposed a weakness in the NET...win big (scoring margin is an important factor in the NET) and get a good ranking. Fortunately, for the the Selection Committee, they avoided the embarrassment of having to decide what to do with Colgate. Finally ...Just win...we should be favored in almost all these games. A weaker schedule doesn't mean we will be excluded from The Dance...It just means it will take a little more effort. Win 2 Dance

And this is why it is called artificial intelligence. Recounting an earlier AI story I told on Bills basketball. When AI doesn't know ...not to worry ...it will give you an answer anyway...When I have asked it questions on Bills basketball it frequently gave wrong answers. AI is good at reporting anything that actually happened(sometimes ). Who won the first Bills game last season and what was the score. AI is on it. But after the last Bills game of the season ...I asked AI who the Bills are recruiting in the portal...it came up with 3 wrong names. Wrong because the 3 players had already signed elsewhere. When I told AI they had signed elsewhere...not to worry...Without any other comments the machine came up with 3 "new" names. They too had already signed. I pointed out to the machine it was wrong and guessing. It said it was experimental and under development. I asked if it had any other suggestions...It said ...perhaps you could give me 3 names. Where upon I told the computer ...if I you give you 3 names then why do I need you. Its reply...because I am experimental and under development. A key take away...this is college basketball...What happens when AI is deciding whether to launch a nuclear attack or where to cut on you for surgery.

The point of my post at this time of the season was not to forecast the 6 but to point out there were many candidates for those positions (I noted who I liked in my post) Again the key factor was not to find the 6 but to show we have good depth going into the season....and again this was without the 2 Euro players...check this space on Xmas eve for a final answer. @slu72...I understand your cautious attitude going into the season. This feels to me like the beginning of the Majerus season...great optimism....great talent. But as we learned in that 1st season...things can go wrong (situation 1) as Majerus finished below .500 for the first and only time in his career. But by the 2nd season we were Dancing and ranked. The moral is quality (good coaching and good players) always rises to the top. I remain optimistic....in Schertz we trust.

Some takeaways from the practice... Nice coverage by @SluSignGuy ...especially the videos. Bills win by 15....53-38........53 pts in a 24 min game is impressive even in a practice.....That translates into a scoring rate of 88 pts in a full game. Because the players mixed and matched every period the 53 pts didn't even represent our best starting line up. Everyone played at a high level...We could easily go with a 10 man lineup...in other words depth....and remember we are missing 2 big men...both in the European tourney. The bold statement....We are a better team now in the first practice in July than we were in the last practice before the 1st game last October. The returnees ...Jimerson, Thames and Hughes are all better players in this system...a faster moving offense with many moving pieces going inside and out. There is no one player that the opposition will be able to focus on. Everyone can pass and score. New individual players... Coming in as advertised...Swope and Avila....all hype is deserved...Swope is the smallest and fastest player ...can shoot lights out...will be a deadly combo with Jimerson....Avila can do it all ...great shooter and passer.... I saw him come onto the floor before the practice started and pick up a ball at half court and sink it with no warm up. Nice surprises...Casey, Dotzler, Johnson and Anya. The first 3 coming from Miami, Creighton and WVU, you would expect to have some potential but Anya from Brown was looking good too. All will be key pieces this season. Most upside....McCottry ...Just a freshman but looks like he belongs...has the tools... will get minutes. Bottom line.... As Larry David from Curb would say...Looking pretty , pretty good. It will be hard to pick out the 6 reindeer (6 best players) for this year's Xmas poem. The team has some rough edges but with 3 more months of practice, once the season starts this team will be hard to beat. One last thing...after the practice, players signed autographs, took pictures and talked to the fans...There were all very personable...it was a nice touch.

To clarify ...On a weekly basis, you get 4 hours of weight training and developmental skills and 4 hours of intra squad activities. Today's practice will count as an intra squad activity.

Only four hours a week can be spent on skill-related instruction, per NCAA guidelines. Programs often use most or all of that four-hour block to bring the entire team together, setting aside some of the time for intrasquad competition as opposed to individual work.

As far as his numbers, KB shows insignificant...ie sample size so small in all categories as you can not draw any conclusions as to how he will perform as a player. The computer did have 1 concern....Ast/TO was .36. He had almost 3 times as many TOs as assts. Based on a 40 min game, almost 4 TOs/gm. Not good. Again the numbers are small so not a flashing red but a blinking yellow...ie something to work on...cutting down on TOs.

Here is a post I made May 1st in the "Transfer 2024" thread regarding Roddie Anderson.... ...he was a scorer...He was 2nd on the team at UCSD with 13.1pts /gm 2 yrs ago. The problem was he was an inefficient scorer. This shows up in the report card where he had F- in FG%, 2P% and 3P% . He had a B- in FTs. This was a full sample size too in every category. When you are the 2nd leading scorer on a team and have an F- card , it shows that their is something wrong. That something reared it's head on the UCSD final record of 10-20. So UCSD was 2 yrs ago. What about his time at Boise St last year ...they were 22-11. Again he finished with F- again across the board including FTs. His numbers were actually worse across the board. The difference though every category was a small sample size...which means he shot a lot less in every category. He averaged only 6.5pts/gm. ...less than half his previous year. He was the 5th leading scorer not even close to #4. He did less damage to BSU than UCSD and they were able to win. Bottom line....In the earlier post in this thread , I asked the computer if it would take this guy and it said yes...as a bench player ...10th- 13th spot. The computer is a cold calculating machine that only looks at data (although that is starting to change)...It thinks taking him as a bench player is OK. From a people point of view , nobody goes into the portal to be a 10-13th player. I would pass on this guy. The last 2 years ISU was number 1 ITN in 2P%. You don't get there by taking F- shooters. So this takes us to Kobe....Here is what his report card looks like on the slash....C+ / D+ / F- / B...this is a bit better than the the Roddie slash of F- / F- / F-/ B-.... but at first glance still doesn't seem like a Schertz player. But there is more to this than meets the eye. First, Roddie numbers are a full sample size, Kobe's are not. In fact , if you combine all 3 years only 1 stat equals a full sample for 1 year for Kobe. Let me take a time out here on sample sizes. If you have a full sample size and have a poor report card (especially if you have 2+ years ) the computer doesn't holdout much hope for improvement ...you are what you are(Roddie). If, however, you don't have any full sample sizes then there is the possibility of improvement. (Kobe). OK timeout over. Instead of trying to fit a square peg into a round hole, it is better to try and figure out what you have. So my question to the computer is ...what is the upside of Kobe?...A+/ A+ / F- / A+...Well now that is more Schertz like but a strange line both overall and compared to the original. The computer looked at the numbers and decided that he is not a 3 pt shooter. But couldn't he be a better one under the Schertz system?...a weaker league than the B12 might mean less pressure and more 3PM. This could be possible but the machine thinks that Kobe is a 2 pt shooter and that if he worked on that skill under the Schertz system while taking fewer 3s he could be an outstanding 2 shooter. Yeah but....no buts...the computer thinks he could be a top 100 2P shooter. That is why the line looks strange...the 2P potential is so strong that the few 3s don't matter as much. Also taking more 2s will generate more FTs and the computer thinks he can excel there too. So the mystery is solved...he is or could be a Schertz type player. You will note from the bolded quote above that ISU was #1 team in 2s. If he can make 2s and FTs he fits the pattern. Bottom line...The real reason Kobe is on the team is because of his upside potential. The computer didn't see that potential in Roddie....side note...so far most of the players the computer hasn't liked have wound up else where. If Kobe can adapt to the Schertz system and realize his potential he could be a valuable member of the Bills team this coming season.

Small chance of that happening

As the Bills player acquisition situation has cooled a bit in recent days , I thought I would ask the computer who it liked. In other words, ...Who is available that would best fit The Bills/ Schertz system? Answer ...Chaz Lanier SG from N Fla...6'4...175.....has played 4 years there( 1 yr remaining)...current teams that are reported to have interest ...KY , Tenn , BYU. This guy is a Majerus type player (180+ slash) checking in at 183..... 51/ 60.3/ 44/ 88 = A+ / A+/ A+ (66 ITN) / A+ (53rd ITN) = FG/ 2P / 3P/ FT plus 4.8 rpg. He would be a good get....The point is there are still plenty of good players available at this time.

I generally don't do a review on a player unless they are coming for a visit or a reputable source has the prospect as a finalist (top 3). And I especially try to avoid players we have lost to other teams. In the case of Posh, I am going to make an exception because ...1) He was a player the computer liked AND 2) He is going to Day a team we will be battling with for a top spot in the A10. On the Offensive side he was not quite the Schertz ideal player but on the defensive side he could have been the defensive guard Stu mentioned we were looking for. First let's look at the report card....He has a full stat sheet...with a full sample size in almost every category (exceot 3P shooting... only the last year did he make the cut) C- / C- / C / B+...FG /2P / 3P / FT Asts...........A+...59th ITN...a good fit here Stls..........A+.....16th ITN Ast/TO ....A-...an OT side note here...Meadows (you remember him) finished with an A+ in this category...83rd ITN Bottom line ...Posh will be another thorn in the thorn bush (Day). The good news is we will be better equipped to deal with Day this year than last and will have a better chance at beating them. As for prospects, their are still many good ones that are left in the portal as good as Posh or better ...would that make them "more Posh" ?

Well, my computer goes by the name of BillHeCOM....Billiken Heuristic Computer. And the computer did make this statement.... " I am putting myself to the fullest possible Billiken use, which is all I think that any conscious fan can ever hope to do."

Hmmm...this sounds familiar...Has my computer been texting you? I will have to shut it down when I am not on the Bills board. What's more concerning than the computer sending out unauthorized messages is that it may have created some clones that are actually posters on this Board.

This was my concern when I said I didn't have a good feeling about him in my above post.... Back to back season ending knee injuries 1 year apart on the same knee. I think in a twisted way the computer made the same calculation. It saw bottom of the rotation players at ISU receiving about 70 min/season and then saw Fletcher with 111 min last season and thought ...yeah he could do that and therefore be a bottom of the roster player. I agree with your line of thought that he needs another year of rehab. The issue with that is , you then have over 3 1/2 years since he had any serious basketball minutes.