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The Wiz

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Listener of the Streets (6/7)

  1. It is too early to tell ...so far they look about normal. Over recent history it has been trending up. I look at the A+ shooters. When they are up everyone trends up...when they trend down so does the majority. Let's take a look at what it takes to be an A+ shooter over the last decade.... 2012-13...75.4% 2014........75.5 2015........75 2016........75.6 2017.........76.9 2018........77.4 2019........76.2 2020......77 2021......78 2022.....77.5 It seems FT% started to trend up in 2016. Last year was the first drop in a few years. Check back with me at the end of the year and we will see whether we are trending down or if last year was just a blip in an upward trend.
  2. Too early to tell on Sincere ...he has only taken 12 three point shots so far. As for Rashad, he had a great freshman year at Clev St...and then...they moved the 3 pt line back and he was never the same. Here is what his numbers look like from the arc.... Fr.........41% on 223 att...83rd ITN on 3PA/gm Soph.......32% on 189 att...1st ITN on 3PA/gm Jr................34% on 277 att......5th ITN on 3PA/gm Sr(The Bills).....26% on 51 att I always thought it was a curious signing as he was never the same once the line was pushed back. He had 466 shots from the arc to try and regain his form before he became a Billiken. The fact that he was not going to be taking 200+ shots /yr as a Bill was another factor that would put downward pressure on his 3P% once he arrived here. Once Sincere plays more his 3P numbers will go up.
  3. This will be a longer post than usual because we are now transitioning from 1 phase of the schedule to another. We have just completed the toughest phase (our last 4 D1 games) . The computer picked us to go 2-2 in this section and we did. This means we are on track with the forecast. We currently are an A- team even after the painful loss last night. Let's start with my final paragraph in the Aub post game wrap up...... ".....Auburn's poor offense tried to give us the game and we refused to take it. You make the mistakes or learn to take the pressure of the upper level teams in Nov so you can play better in March. We finish the toughest part of our schedule (the last 4 games)....2-2 which is what the computer predicted. Painful now but good if we learn from it. This game was more of a battle than the Md game and Aub is the better team and we almost beat them at their place. We have learned and grown." Many have said we are a good team, not a great team. I can agree with that...for now. A couple of questions...What is considered a great team?...Many say if you are in the Top 25 you are great. For now we will go with that...it is simple and easy. The next question is... how close are we to being a great team? Yesterday , we were the better team against a 13th ranked opponent for 38min 2 sec or 95.1% of the game. My answer to the question is ...we are within 5% of greatness. The last 5% of any difficult task is always the hardest but I believe we can do it . Why? Let's move onto the next section of our schedule to find out why....The 17 The 17 We have a couple of more games to go before we reach a real data sample size. However we are far enough along the way to spot some developing trends . One that I have noticed is very unusual. A trend I haven't seen in a decade. The 17. The computer is showing that we will be favored to win in the next 17 games. Now before someone comes back to me after a loss and says ..."you promised 17 wins"...let me point out something . Being favored to win is different than winning 17 in a row. Our chances to beat Tenn St on Wed are 97%. if we played Ternn St for the next 17 games in a row , the computer would have The Bills favored in all 17. However our chances to win 17 in a row even at a 97% sure thing would only be about 60%. With that said the computer puts out a cautionary warning on 3 games....3 games it has in the shaky win category....Iona (Bills by 2.41)...UMass (Bills by 0.26) and Dav (Bills by 2.72)... Still 17 projected wins is significant...Summary...If we win all or almost all of the 17 , we will be in fine shape at the end of the season. Chance 2 Dance 56%...we are up about 3%...again as long as we do what we are supposed to do we won't change much. We need to start beating all teams soundly (ie exceeding spreads and winning games where we are not favored )but in the end the key word is winning. Another clarification ....In the preseason forecast , I had us at 86% C2D...that number is still about the same. The number you see from thread to thread (for example....the 56% is today's C2D...that is if the season ended today our C2D would be 56%. The 86% chance is a season long projection overall. Now on to the TSU game. Let's start with the report card ...................SLU....................TSU..........................SLU..........................TSU .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B+.......................C+............................D............................C- FG%...............B........................C-.............................A-............................C 3P%..............C+........................C..............................B-...........................B- FT%...............A-......................D-................................................................. Reb...............A.........................D+.............................D+...........................D OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....Reb.............Def.....FG%...3P% Down.........Off...PPG...FG%...3P%...FT%...Def...Reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU Assts...Collins... 1st...unch Reb...Okoro...43rd...dn.... FT%...Parker...51st...up.... 3PM...Jimerson...15th...up Dou Dou...Okoro & Pickett...tied 42nd...dn TnSt Brown...3P%...31st Makuoi...FG%...38th This week the report card shows the offense went down but the defense went up....In the past when the offense went up the defense went down. The good news is we can play good offense and good defense. The bad news is we don't seem to be able to do them together. We need to learn to chew gum and walk at the same time....which I think we will as time goes on. Injury /illness report and misc None Keys to the game.....While this should be a relatively easy game there are a few issues. TnSt is a D+ team. But they have a few good players who if left alone can cause us some problems. Brown is a good shooter. He can shoot from anywhere on the court. He is 31st ITN in 3P%. Their go to guy is Clay ...he will take the most shots. And finally their big guy Adong Makuoi...38th ITN in FG%...he will be looking for put backs and bunnies. TnSt has a better offense than Aub BUT their defense can't hold a candle to them. We could win this game by just running up the score and overwhelming them but I hope we don't. This would be a great game to play good offense AND defense. We could still win by a big margin but in addition we could gain some balance in our game to carry forward. WWN2D2W...Hold their top 3 players to 33pts. ....Defend the rim, particularly against Makuoi...hold him to single digits. TOs..11...let's also try to force some opp TOs.. 11...we need to dominate the boards...win this by 9 rebs...make some shots, target slash...48/38/80 Bottom line....Let's win this by 18 by playing a complete game. It's time we grab this Tiger by the tail and start a long winning streak....no more pussyfooting around.
  4. In the Aub game , Yuri added 9 assists and moved up 12 spots to #201 with 627 assists. Tied... Kenny Wilson...Nova...1986-89 Passed Bryce Drew...Valpo.....1995-98 Juwan Staten...WV.....2011-15 Jason Gardner...AZ.....2000-03 Scoop Jardine...Syr.....2008-12 Kevin Ollie......UConn...1992-95 Yuri is now 6 behind Kyle Lofton
  5. A heartbreaker because this was ours to win. While many will blame FT shooting (and it was definitely a problem) the real issue was the shooting in general was poor. Of course, Auburn had poor shooting too but that is was what they do. ...41/19/64...if they hit 1 more 3 they make their average slash. So let's see what happened? Bolded phrases are from my original post. Shooting...we have to make some shots ...Bills shot a dismal....38.5/ 28.6/ 28.6....I use decimals on this slash to show an unusual and sad stat.........3P%= FT%....Let's forget about the target slash for a moment and look at the average Bills slash...48/36/81...if we use that for this game here is what it looks like... Twos....4 more (bunnies and layups)= 8pts Threes...2 more...6pts FTs.........8 more in the 2nd half...8pts A total of 22 pts we left on the table. Well that was an average Bills slash...against the Auburn D you might not make the average slash...If we make any category in the slash , we win. And it is unlikely that Aub defended from the FT line...which is why the FT line(defense) on every report card is blank. Well, let's say we couldn't even win 1 category from the slash. Mix and match a little better on any of 2 or 3 categories and we win. The point is we let it slip away. Magic number is 72...if we score 72 or above ...good chance to win ...An off shoot of the above....and again mix and match. Rebs ...win the reb battle ...We did ...42-41...this was good TOs 11... We had 12 ...this too was good, not just because we were close but because they too had 12. Not to mention we had 12pts off TOs , they had 8. ...so this worked out well. Hold their top 3 guys to under 30 pts combined.....This almost worked out as Broome and Williams had 11 and 9pts. But we let Green slip away with 22pts, double his average. Opp PPG...this number has to come down ...it did but we didn't take advantage Bottom line... Auburn's poor offense tried to give us the game and we refused to take it. You make the mistakes or learn to take the pressure of the upper level teams in Nov so you can play better in March. We finish the toughest part of our schedule (the last 4 games)....2-2 which is what the computer predicted. Painful now but good if we learn from it. This game was more of a battle than the Md game and Aub is the better team and we almost beat them at their place. We have learned and grown.
  6. Auburn's Neville Arena adds 3.33 pts to the spread.
  7. Good question....While we did what we were supposed to do win and spread wise with Prov...a few teams did better and moved ahead of us lowering our chances for a Chance to Dance. Our C2D moves even when we don't play as other teams move around and continue to surprise or disappoint. Another factor is there tends to be more volatility (surprises...up and down ) in the 1st 8 games as real data continues to appear and replace preseason forecasted data. While there will always be "surprises" as the season progresses things tend to settle down as we pass the 8th game. ...in the Bills case the SIU game. The 8th games is the point at which I switch over to all real data. Theoretically, after that point, the computer should become more accurate with each game or less volatile. Less volatile in this definition means more accurate spreads and less upset surprises. Finally, the data is shaping up in an interesting way so far and I think the computer may have a surprise after the Aub game ...win or lose. It should show up when I do the Tenn St game (the game following the Aub game)...stay tuned.
  8. This is game 4 of the 4 consecutive toughest D1 games of the season. And this is the toughest of the 4 games. We are 2-1 at this point. A win and we would be in excellent shape. A loss and we would be where the computer expected us to be at this time of the season....On track with more work to do but with the worst behind us. For those that are wringing their hands and saying this game is a definite loss, it just isn't true. Let's start by looking at the last game Aub played against Nwestern. ...a 1 pt win for Aub. The thing that is interesting is NW is even with The Bills ...I plugged NW in with the Bills on neutral ground and we came up even. What this means is that a team just like the Bills played Aub and played them about even. One difference is that this game will be at Aub instead of away as it was with the NW game. But the fact remains , that unranked NW played the 13th ranked Tigers even. Which brings up another point ...Aub has some weaknesses...The computer feels that Aub is over hyped at this point. While it feels they are a good team with a grade of A (we are now at B+), it doesn't feel they are even a top 30 team at this point. Computer says ...they can be had. Chance 2 Dance 53%...about the same as before the Prov game (55%) ...It didn't change much because we did what we were supposed to do. Let's take a look at the report card ...................SLU....................Aub..........................SLU..........................Aub .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............A........................D+............................D............................A FG%...............B+......................D-...........................B+............................A 3P%..............B-........................F..............................C+...........................A+...10th ITN FT%...............A+...7th ITN......D................................................................. Reb...............A-........................A.............................C...........................C+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off...PPG...FG%...FT%...Reb.............Def.....none Down.........Off...none...Def...PPG Top 100 In The Nation SLU Assts...Collins... 1st...unch Reb...Okoro...39th...dn.... 3PM...Jimerson...21st......dn Blks...Okoro...74th...side note...Carte' Are Gordon(Gramb) tied with Okoro FT%...Parker...93rd...up....side note...Phillip Russell (SEMO)...67th Aub Blks....Cardwell...6th Injury /illness report and misc The Bills Thatch 11/24/22...Ques...undisclosed injury...Uncertain if he will be available for the Aub game. Keys to the game.....This game will be similar to the Md game in terms of what we are up against. A great defense and a weak offense...although Md offense came to life against us. What we learned(hopefully) from Md is even if a team has a weak offense ...if you don't guard them they will score. A disturbing stat is TOs...On the surface we look pretty food on protecting the ball with a stellar A- grade on TOs(11). The problem is we don't force other teams to turn it over ...with an F grade we are one of the worst in opp TOs with a 18th Worst ITN.. This ties into the guarding issue...we need to pressure them. Shooting...we have to make some shots especially 3s...Jimerson's hitting but the rest ...not so much. Opp PPG...this number has to come down...grade D is unacceptable....see Defense statements above. Magic number is 72...if we score 72 or above ...good chance to win...if we hold them to 72 or less good chance to win Intensity...We need to start the game with a bang...knock them back on their heels ....Play like there is one minute left in a close game except do that in the 1st minute. WWN2D2W...Hold their top 3 guys to under 30 pts combined. Target slash...50/40/80...make some 3s...Rebs ...win the reb battle...TOs 11...score at least 72 pts. Bottom line....This game is winnable but we need to bring our A game ...on offense and defense ...for 40 mins
  9. update... In a great performance (assist wise) Yuri had 15 assists which moved him from #245 to #213 ...A huge jump up the rank ladder...He now has 618 assists. Players he just passed include.... Lucas Nutt...SEMO...2010-14...604 Ty Lawson....NC.....2007-09...608 Marcus Carr....Tex...Still playing...608 Kevin Dillard...Dayton...2009-13...614 Travis Diener...Marq...2002-05....617 Side note...Yuri is 1 behind Kyle Lofton...who is now playing at Fla. Keep it rolling Yuri
  10. I tried to feed this game into the computer....It came back with this answer...North Tex...wins by 30 over the Quinn...N Tex not as good as Murray St ...a team the Bills beat by 23..... Don't humiliate me...I would rather do the spread of peanut butter over jelly.
  11. Welcome to The "YAWN" known as the sleepy time thread. It stands for Yuri Assist Watch Now. This thread is to commemorate Yuri entrance into one of College Basketball's most exclusive clubs...The Top 250 Players of all time in Assists in D1. He did this during the Providence game and currently has 603 assists and is now ranked 245th. He is currently on pace to break the all time college assist record of 1076 set by Bobby Hurley at Duke in 1993. This assumes he stays healthy and he comes back next year. After every game that Yuri records an assist , I will report the latest total and ranking along with some highlights of players he has tied or passed. Here are today's numbers... Rank...245th...# 603 Passed Xavier Johnson... #602... Indiana...still playing Tony Bennett...# 601... Green Bay...1989-1992 Tied Terry Giles...Fla. A&M...1987-1990 Jake Odum...Ind St...2011-2014
  12. The official injury report lists him as questionable for the Auburn game.
  13. No spread on this one since it is not an NCAA game. C2D 56%...we picked up 1% after beating Prov...when you do what you are supposed to do by about the correct spread not much changes. Next up Auburn...The toughest game of the year Meanwhile, coming tomorrow, the new "sleepy time" thread. Stay tuned.
  14. A nice win...a needed win. What I liked most about this game is we came from behind. But this was not a case of Prov folding, it was an unrelenting will to win. The team showed some grit. After trailing by 6 at the half we dropped back to down 13 early in the 2nd half. We could have easily folded at this point but we didn't. At 16:05 down 13, we started to chip away at the lead...one point at a time...10min later we tied it . For the next 4 min the lead swung back and forth and then at 1:48 we were down 4...looking bleak at this point for the home town heroes. Another fade away loss ?? Not tonight...the Bills dug in and through an unwavering determination finally took the lead at 26 sec left in the game and clinched the game when Prov missed a desperation shot at the buzzer. ...Bills fans breathed a sigh of relief at that point. As I said in the post game wrap in the Md spread thread but before the Prov game...The Md game was a double outlier. Both teams had an exceptional game...Md good , the Bills bad. The fact that we beat Prov by almost the exact spread(Bills up by 1 with 4 sec left in the game) after the loss to Md is further conformation that the numbers are right on and Saturday was an anomaly. One last point before we get into the game numbers, I read where some are ready to crown Md as the national champion or that we way under estimated them. Md is a good team...but so is SLU , Mia and Prov. If we were to play Md tomorrow... it again would be a close game. How could that be? Yes, you could have a double outlier again. But it is not the most probable outcome. We and the others have only played 5 games. It is to early to declare anybody anything at this point. In 3 more games, there will be enough real data to start drawing some conclusions about who the good teams are and who are the bad ones. Get back to me if Md is 8-0. Btw, the computer picked the Bills to be 4-1 after 5 games this season. So we are right where we are supposed to be. Let's look at this game... Key to the game.....3P shooting....Prov does not defend the 3 at all....we will get open shots BUT we still have to make them. ...This was right on and disappointing...we did have open shots but we were unable to make them...20% The saving grace is we were hot from inside the arc shooting a very strong 58% We also made the wise decision to slow up on 3PA , shooting only half of what we normally do. Hopkins is their go to guy...hold him to 12pts 6reb ...this was a fail as he finished 20pts 9 rebs after Hopkins hold the next 5 guys to 50 pts...this was a pass...they scored 47...made it by 3 pts...hmmm wasn't the final spread 3 pts. Target slash...50/40/75...actual 48/20/88...looks good except for the 3s Rebs will be a battle , win the reb battle ...Another fail 38-35 ...missed it by 3 ...but close enough to keep us in the game keep them under 70 pts...again missed by 3 but just close enough TOs 11...This may have been the key to the game...Prov had an outstanding 11 but we bested them with 9. Why was this key?...Pts off TOs...Prov 18 ...the Bills 21.... again the magic 3 ...as in difference maker. Bottom line....As the spread says , this is a very close game...keep the errors down, make some shots, keep the Prov point total down and we win...It was a good conclusion pre game and still a good one post game.....4-1... I will take it at this point.
  15. Brutal game yesterday...If you have a strong stomach, you can take a look at the Wrap under the Md spread thread or you can just turn the page and move on.. In any case, all is not lost. The computer at the start of the season had us going 2-2 over this crucial 4 game stretch... we are now 1-1 . This is an important game not only for the numbers but for team momentum (flow)...Remember Prov came off a tough loss yesterday too. The winner today will be the team that wants it the most. Chance 2 Dance 55%...The good news is we are still listed although our % took a big hit. I will not post C2D if we drop below 50%. We dropped 17% since yesterday. We can regain some of that with a win today. We remain an A- team ... Prov comes in with a B+. We need a win to retain the A- and C2D standing. Crucial 4 games 2 down 2 to go...A win today and we will still be in pretty good shape. Let's take a look at the report card ...................SLU....................Prov..........................SLU..........................Prov .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B+......................B...............................F+............................C- FG%...............C+......................B+...........................B-.............................D 3P%..............B-........................B-..............................C-...........................F-...2nd worst ITN FT%...............A.......................C+................................................................. Reb...............B+........................D+.............................D+...........................A OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off...FT%.............Def.....none Down.........Off...PPG...FG%...3P%...Reb......Def...PPG...FG%...3P%...Reb Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm SLU Assts...Collins... 1st...unch Reb...Okoro...21st...dn....Pickett...68th...dn 3PM...Jimerson...10th......up Rebs/gm....The Bills...19th...dn Def Rebs......The Bills ...23rd Prov Blks....Moore...26th Injury /illness report and misc The Bills 10/21/22...Rivera ....out for the season...foot surgery 11/13/22...Kramer...Red shirting the entire season Prov Berry...undisclosed injury...has missed last 4 games...Questionable for today Key to the game.....3P shooting....Prov does not defend the 3 at all....we will get open shots BUT we still have to make them. WWN2D2W...Hopkins is their go to guy...hold him to 12pts 6rebs...another low depth team...they have a starting 6...after Hopkins hold the next 5 guys to 50 pts...Target slash...50/40/75...especially the 40...Rebs will be a battle , win the reb battle...TOs 11...keep them under 70 pts. Bottom line....As the spread says , this is a very close game...keep the errors down, make some shots, keep the Prov point total down and we win.
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