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The Wiz

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    The Wizard of Odds

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Listener of the Streets

Listener of the Streets (6/7)

  1. To your point...Player thinking ...do well and I can go with Coach
  2. I never thought I would be doing spread threads on the NIT particularly if the Bills weren't in it. But in light of the fact that these games do affect the Bills Nation ...here we go. These will not be full analytical threads like the regular Bills threads...just something so you can keep your finger on the pulse (or take your own pulse). Unfortunately, the computer doesn't think this will be over quickly. In a series of simulations, the program showed that ISU will go at least till Mar 26-27 and probably till the first week in April. Not the news most Bills fans want to hear. But that's what happens when you are placed in the wrong tournament...When you wind up in a lower Tourney , chances are you are going to do pretty well. The only early off ramp is a game on Mar 26-27 when they face a tough Cinn team. Cincy is another snubbed team (37 NET...64% C2D). The computer gives that game to ISU because of the home field advantage...but thinks the game will be close. Going forward to Apr 2 ..Nova has a chance to knock off ISU but again a close game with ISU now showing a 1 pt advantage. And then there is the final game...right now the computer gives Wake Forest the championship as it feels that Wake is the best team in the NIT and consequently the most snubbed. In this game, ISU comes in as a B+ team...SMU as a B. Overall ranking for SMU would probably be similar to VCU (another participant ...but only a small chance they would meet). As you can see by the spread, the computer expects that ISU will be able to handle SMU. But this is the NIT and different teams handle this tourney in different ways that will not show up in the data. Some teams will want to prove themselves...show the NCAA that they were misplaced. For other teams, the players are thinking about the NIL, the portal or where or who they will be playing for next season. Word is that the Bills have some sort of deal...but the deal isn't done until it is done AND the longer this drags out the more chance there is that something could go wrong, Bottom line.... The waiting can be painful Sometimes it hurts End the NIT quickly And get onboard with Schertz
  3. Wait...are you saying he was "in sincere"?
  4. Everything on my side went pretty much as expected...The only mini surprise was not that the Committee picked an extra A-10 team (after all there were 6 extra openings with the shun)...but who they picked ...St. J. The mini snub was UMass. I usually only list the teams that have a good chance of getting in (at least 50%) but with exit of 6 teams there was a need to drop into the 40s. Pre selection I had UMass at 45%...also St. B and St. J at 40%. After the exodus...UMass moved to 50% and St. B and St. J. came in at 46%. Again you could make the argument that UMass finished at 11-7 and that the Bonnies tied St. J at 9-9. Of course, if you have been reading my stuff, you understand at this point it is not about data or numbers ...it is about the Committee....or as the computer would say ...Humans...$%^*)(*&!!!
  5. Possibly...it would have eliminated 1 bid stealer and possibly changed the other NET numbers just enough for ISU to get in.. And now the official NCAA statement as to what happened.... in the previous 3 years there have been 2 bid stealers (0.67/yr) ...this year alone there have been 5 ...NCAA translation...just a freak happening.... Plus ISU played a weak OOC schedule...NCAA translation...not our fault, ISU should have scheduled better. Bottom line ...You have a computer system (NET) that is figuring everything in and comes up with an overall rating for ISU of #29 out of 362 teams....yet somehow a miracle happens and #54 UVA gets in...Question....When you look at NET results which is more important ...SOS or the overall rating which takes in SOS plus all the other data and then compares ISU to UVA plus 360 other teams ...the answer seems clear until the humans arrive then the other factors start to plug in...P5 vs mid major....ACC vs MVC...UVA vs ISU. Hello Mid major...I am from the NCAA and I am here to help you....the computer says run.
  6. Some interesting observations by the computer... It thought that Day would be punished for an early exit in the A-10 tourney...didn't happen...it got the 7th seed like the computer had originally projected...Computer says you can't trust humans. As @HoosierPalmentioned above ISU becomes the highest NET team to not make it. Speaking of ISU a few days ago in the Coach search discussion thread , there was a question about whether an ISU coach would be able to make it in the A10. So I ran some simulations which showed ISU would have finished 2nd this year in the A10.... Now that the bracket info has been fed in , the computer shows that the data reason that ISU didn't make it was there were some unexpected teams that did. The computer speculates that the Duq bid was one of those . Finishing out the simulation from above... had ISU been in the A10 they would have won the tourney( beating Duq by 3) and been the auto bid for the Atlantic 10.....Day and ISU would have both been Dancing....Can we use this info in coach recruiting? That was the data side...the human side shows that ISU was snubbed...or as the NCAA would say ....we are here to correct NET oversights ...we "fix" things and make them right.....the computer response to "fixing" things... *^#(*^%)(@#^^?% !!!!
  7. NIT bid chances 1 team...62-74% 2 teams ..41-49% 3 teams ...30% 0 teams...15%
  8. Depends on who the other 3 teams are....follow the money
  9. The NIT percentages listed above are for each team separately ...the chances of those 4 all getting in are only about 16%.
  10. I think the computer's thinking is that if ISU don't get an at large bid they will be in the first 4 out and get an NIT auto bid.
  11. I am showing ISU at 52% C2D....they are truly at the mercy of the Committee ...this is one where Rod Serling will make the decision....which means the NET will not be the final determining factor.....99% NIT A-10... The Dance Dayton...This is one the Committee would like to punish a little...for leaving the A-10 tourney a bit early...78% chance to make it...8-10th seed Cusp...Duq and VCU...game spread is even...winner Dances....loser see below NIT VCU....74% Rich....66% Loy....62% Duq...50% A quick note ...When looking at the NIT, you have to realize this is a consolation tournament for ALL conferences...The Committee first decides who did we snub for the Dance and puts those in...uses a little NET for the next bunch and then "fixes" things for the final few...the ones that should have been deserving.
  12. To your point...take an 8th place team with a 9-9 record...should a team like that be Dancing?...The answer is yes, if the team is Texas...almost a lock to get in. The argument that the NET and the Committee would make is, it is harder to finish 8th in the B12 than to finish 2nd in the A10. This year it worked out pretty nice for the A-10 but most years not so much....btw any extra mid major bids... the Committee will "fix" using the seeding system. And whether people agree with any of this doesn't matter....that is the way the system(computer and people) is set up.
  13. The math is simple...hire the best coach available. Speaking of math...Ind St Chance 2 Dance today 54%...dn 2% from yesterday Speaking of Ind St...here is their report card...please note they have one of the best offenses if not the best offense ITN. ....................Off...................Def PPG.....A+ 8th ITN.............C FG%.....A+ 3rd ITN.............C+ 3P%......A+ 10th ITN...........B- FT%.......A+ 3rd ITN............ Reb........C+...........................A
  14. The computer is rarely wrong....sometimes real life just has to catch up....or as the computer would say...you are not feeding me enough data.
  15. Here is what I have for post season A-10 play NCAA...Day ...76%....8th or 9th seed One of the following will get the auto bid....VCU....25.6%....Duq...25.3%....St. B...24.9%...St. J...24.6% Of note....the chances of picking all 4 under dogs in yesterday's A10 tourney were about 60-1. Also for those tracking Indiana St...they have a 56% chance to get a Dance bid
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