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The Wiz

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About The Wiz

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  1. This year's Bess stats vs Lewis II career stats ( He didn't play a full season this year) ..............................FG%...............2P%..............3P%............FT%...........Reb...........Ast..............Stl.............Pts Bess......................39...................45.................33................79.............6.8..........1.8.................1.4............15.3 Lewis II..................40...................45.................36................82.............2.1..........1.1.................0.8............14.1
  2. You are right ....Raw data is out dated...but that doesn't mean it isn't still useful....My thing is to convert data into grades...I think it is easier to understand ....not everybody is a numbers person....The slash line is readily available and widely used....Even adding the 2P% seems strange at times but I put it in when I think it contributes some less than visible info. I am trying to keep it simple...Look at the Perkins data posted in the VeniceMenace link above....24 stats...and they don't even list eFG%. ..If you go to the sports reference page,,,,they have 24 stats per section and there are 10 sections....240 variables....overall totals..per game totals...per 40 min . ...per conf games...per 100 possessions... advanced metrics....and yes , here is where eFG% is buried. Look what has happened in this thread...just talking about the basic concept of slash line vs FG%...and built in bias.....many posts spread over a number of pages....can you imagine adding more variables. ...hundreds of posts...dozens of pages. I don't mind discussing built in bias on certain stats or explaining how or what or why I do certain things with numbers.... I just don't want to do it everyday. If it was just you and me , we would be discussing eFG%, Points Produced, Offensive win shares and Defensive box plus /minus. But if we did discuss all these items , I think it would be just you and me on the board. Bottom line....I am going to keep to the basics and try to simplify ... keeping it easy and concise....as they say in football concentrate on the blocking and tackling. NH, I do appreciate the suggestion.
  3. Thanks Here are the 2 yr totals.....57/ 62/ 38/ 80 = 175 (2Pt excluded from slash total) ...........................................A+ / A+/ B+/A+= A+ overall grade Shot attempts.....823/ 648/ 175/ 340....Even though he has only played 2 years at JUCO, these numbers are equivalent to many average 4 year players...While past numbers are no guarantee of future success...This bodes well for his future. Also the numbers are more meaningful as he is playing better competition than most HS kids.....Furthermore, his 3s are real....i.e. from college distance as opposed to HS range. Time to get out the towels.....
  4. Down a little but still a 168... good for an A Do you have the raw stats?....FGM-FGA...3PM-3PM ...FTM-FTA....Then I could come up with some 2 year stats and grades....large sample size would be very predictive.
  5. All I am saying is that there is no model that covers everything.....I personally like the overall model...which is the Combo of the whole slash line....156 is above average(C+)....171 A+...180 Majerus....However it is not fair to non guards ....so I think it is good to use the FG% for them...46% is above average (C+)....50.3% A+. In using the info, I personally would compare guards on the overall grade....and front court players using the FG%.. Again both are biased in their own ways which is fine as long as you understand what they mean and how to use the info...... Comparing like players on the appropriate data charts. Sorry, I didn't mean to make it more confusing than it is...hope that clears things up a bit.
  6. Here are his full season numbers from last year, the most recent I have......if you have more current numbers....raw #s not %s for this year , I would be happy to run them. 61/ 43/ 81=185....A+......A Majerus 180 player How could he have been robbed of being a Top 50 player...don't know...But Majerus wouldn't have cared and it seems Ford doesn't either. A quality get.
  7. Unfortunately , my stats sources don't break it down by position. And while the FG% is biased against guards, it cuts both ways...as the overall rating( the cumulative slash number) is biased against non guards since most can't get an overall rating because of low 3 Pt numbers. Still , the overall rating tends to work . In combination with the individual slash ....together they provide important and valuable information. Let's look at 3 star's list of players...I have used career numbers so they all have large enough sample sizes....Most qualify as bucket getters ( includes FTs) except Cumberland and Hughes both of whom would have made it with better FT shooting. Markus Howard...45/43/90 =178....A+ Carsen Edwards....41/37/ 82-160....B Myles Powell.........43/36/82-161.....B Shamorie Ponds....44/33/84=161....B Charlie Brown.........41/37/ 84=162...B+. Ky Bowman............43/39 /76=158...B- Jarron Cumberland..42/36/72=150..D Larry Hughes.............42/29/69=140..F- Jason Tatum.............45/34/85=164...A-
  8. If you have made 100 FGs...and have shot at least 46% (C+) you qualify as a "bucket getter"....If you shoot 50.3% (A+)....you qualify as a "gold bucket getter"
  9. I agree that Fletcher and Magee are 2 of the best players (not just best guards ) in the country. These 2 players are almost identical in what they do....not typical players so they will grade out strange but in the end the greatness will come through on the full analysis. Let's take a look at the numbers .... Guy...........45 /49/43/ 83.....C-/ C-/ A+/ A+ Magee.....44/49/ 42/ 91......D / C / A+ /A+ Hmmm...I think I see a pattern......2 of the best 3 pt and FT shooters in the country...but just average from inside the arc......Both take the vast majority of their shots from 3 pt range....In the case of Magee I have graded him on 2 Pt shots ...but in reality he has not shot enough from 2 pt range to qualify as having a statistically large enough sample size....can you imagine ? ...he has taken over 500 shots and doesn't have enough 2s. And Guy just barely makes enough 2s to register a grade.. So what does all this mean? How does one know if these are good players? Majerus use to say that he was always looking for 180 players...players whose slash would add up to 180....FG%/ 3P%/ FT%=180.....I have refined that system ....If you score 171 ...you are an A+ player. ...a must have player. ....Guy scores a 171.... and Magee scores a 177...both A+ players...both must have players ...difference makers.... So coming full circle ...back to Mike Lewis II...40/ 36/ 82 = 158...a B- player ...above average. One last note ....if you like Guy and Magee type players...Jimerson has the potential to match their numbers and become that type player.....Not hype ...he is doing it on the HS level and if it can translate to SLU, we could have something special.
  10. Among "regulars" at D1 level....below 41% is considered an F-....A "regular" is considered a player who has made 100 FGs during the season. ...an average "regular" player ( C ) would be about 45.3 -46% . I think if you take all D1 players the average could dip down below 40%. The good thing about using the bigger numbers is that they mean something....i.e....you can get a true read on a player....more predictable. As an example.....This year Lewis was 38/ 48/ 32/ 69....but took only 60 shots from the field......13 from the FT line....the numbers for 2P were better but all the rest were worse....conclusion ...not meaningful due to small sample size....60 shots total for the whole season vs an average of 350 shots/ season the previous 2 years.....13 FTs vs an average of 123/ season the last 2 years. If you are winning by a few points with a few minutes to go ...this is the guy you want to give the ball to. Used right he could be a good addition.
  11. Mike Lewis II ....Career FG% / 2P%/ 3P%/ FT% F- (39.6%) / F (44.6%) / C+ (36.1%) / A+ ( 82.2) If you want a FT shooter ...this is your guy.....
  12. Kalkbrenner....Senior year FG%/ 2P%/ 3P%/ FT% A+ (74%) / A+ (76%) / Sm Smpl Sz / F ((67%) If you want someone who can make the shots from inside the arc....this is the guy...
  13. Yes , you are correct ....a typo ....it should be +2 instead of minus 2...Fixed it...Long post ...late night....Thx
  14. First some general observations....The one common thread that runs through the entire season...be it the Bills schedule ...the A-10....March Madness or college basketball as a whole is.....parity. The teams at the top are still better but not as dominant....The teams at the bottom are still bad but not as bad ....and the teams in the middle are greater in number and tightly bunched together. Look at the Big Dance....Not only were the spreads very tight but using the variable spread many of those games showed the possibility of both teams winning a particular game. So let's see what I said on Nov 4th in the following 3 posts. (This is something not many prognosticators do.....most just want to forget about their predictions) Posted November 4, 2018 Hi all....This is the official start of my basketball season. For those that are new , this is the first of 2 forecasts....preseason...and after the 8th game. This preseason prediction is based on a Bayesian model....the next one on real data. I use a letter grade system which groups similar teams together. As the season starts to unfold I use the first 8 games to meld the Bayesian model with the real data model gradually integrating the real data with the forecasting tool and drop the Bayesian after the first 8 games (after the SIU game on Dec 5)....btw that is 8 real games....so no Quin or UMSL. As the season goes on and I have more data , I become more accurate ( at least that is the way it is suppose to work). A-10 The Bills.................B+......... NCAA 35% or NIT 80% Dav.........................B+.......... NCAA 35% or NIT 80% Day..........................B............NIT 50% RI.............................B............NIT...50% St. J.........................B............NIT...50% VCU.........................B............NIT...50% GM..........................B- St. B........................B- Mass.......................C+ Rich.........................C+ Duq..........................C LaS...........................C GW............................C- Ford...........................D Variance from this model to the end of the season is 2 notches.....For example....The Bills range starting at B+ is from A to B-. An A is a best case scenario.... we gel quickly and everything falls into place....minimal injuries...our new players develop quickly...we start making shots etc....a B- is a worst case scenario....opposite of above...players don't develop, we lose players to injuries or otherwise, we shoot like last year etc Speaking of last year ....My beginning forecast for last year's Bills team was C+....we finished at C+.....nearly 60 % of last year's preseason A-10 picks finished on the money or 1 notch away. All 14 teams finished within 2 notches. The A-10 overall this year is predicted to finish at B+ among conferences.....this is its historical average since the Bills have been a member. ....and up from last year's low of B. Bottomline....The B+ is a significant jump this year particularly in light of the conference being better too. Finally, barring a catastrophe, the nervous Nellies and hand wringers can breathe a sigh of relief....we will be a good (better than last year) team. Will we be in the post season? We will have a better idea on Dec 6 (8th game}.... In the meantime , it looks promising. Posted November 4, 2018 (edited) Here is an update ..... Projected season record with a B+ finish.............................22-8....NIT ..this does not take into account an auto bid....(1st place finish or A-10 tourney win) ....to the Dance. Best case scenario.... A finish.... (everything goes right)....26-4....NCAA Worst case scenario...B- finish....(everything goes wrong)...18-12...Go home ...again not taking an auto bid (win A-10 tourney) into account or a good showing in the A-10 tourney which could lead to an NIT bid Correction.....These totals are missing 1 win...The program did not count the N Ala win because it thought that it was a D-2 school....which it was....It becomes D-1 this year....The correct figures are as follows.... Projected finish.....23-8 Best case................27-4 Worst case..............19-12 Edited November 5, 2018 by The Wiz Posted November 4, 2018 Another update..... There is a strange quirk in the forecast.....It is not showing a symmetrical pattern of wins and losses.... I am showing we lose 4 going into Feb....we are projected to arrive in Feb at 17-4....Looking good...Heading toward the Dance....and then ....we lose 4 in Feb (3-4 for the month)...and finish the season at 22-8....The good news is those losses are close games and if we are playing decent ( low TOs and half way decent shooting) we can win at least 2...If we are playing well maybe take 3 of those 4....and again be Dancing....However if things do not go well in Feb...we could wind up as bad as 2-5. So why Feb?....Only 2 home games for the month....some difficult road trips against the better A-10 teams...if we are short on depth ...that too could be a factor Bottom line...as Feb goes ...so go the Bills. Toughest game of the year....Houston Easiest game .......N Ala. Toughest A-10 game....St. Joe...Feb 8 Easiest ..A-10....Ford Now let's go from here and see how the A-10 actually did. The first grade is the overall season ending grade. The second grade is the trending grade...How the teams were playing at the end. The final number is the variance....How much the teams varied from the Nov prediction.......even... meaning the team came in on target .......-1 ...missing by 1 step...e.g....B- instead of B. .........................................Overall(season end)...................Trending(End of season)..................Variance from beginning of the season(see chart above) VCU..................................................A-...............................................B+.............................................................+2 Day...................................................B+...............................................B-..............................................................+1 Dav...................................................B.................................................C+..............................................................-1 SLU...................................................B-.................................................A-...............................................................-2 RI......................................................B-..................................................B.................................................................-1 St. B..................................................B-..................................................B+...............................................................even St. J..................................................C+.................................................C+.................................................................-2 GM....................................................C+.................................................C+..................................................................-1 Duq...................................................C.....................................................C-.................................................................even Rich...................................................C.....................................................D+...............................................................-1 UMass...............................................C-....................................................D-..................................................................-2 LaS.....................................................D+.................................................C-....................................................................-2 Ford....................................................D...................................................D-.....................................................................even GW......................................................D...................................................D-.....................................................................-2 Some observations....I thought the A-10 would be better this year ...but it wasn't....It finished at B- That is at the bottom end of its normal range...it has varied over the years that SLU has been a member from A- to B-. You will note that only 2 teams did better than expected....which is why the league was down. Overall , 57% of the teams finished even or within 1 step of their predicted grade....the rest finished within 2 steps....which is the target I set . As noted above the one quirk is that only 1 team did better than expected. Post season wise everyone went pretty much where they were supposed to go. Now let's look at the final report card..... For comparison sake....I am going to add in Nat Champ UVa to see what we need to shoot for in the future...... .........................................................Off....................................................................................................Def ..................................SLU............................................UVa................................................SLU......................................UVa PPG............................F+..............................................C-....................................................A...........................................A+.....1st ITN FG%.............................F+..............................................A-...................................................A-..........................................A+.......5th ITN 3P%..............................F-...17th WITN..........................A+...7th ITN..................................A............................................A+.......4th ITN FT%..............................F-.....2nd WITN.........................A-....................................................................................................... Reb...............................A+...17th ITN............................C-...................................................B+............................................A+...3rd ITN Top 100 ITN STLS...Goodwin....60th Reb.....French....78th Blks....French....65th....Diakite (UVa)....81st Assts....Jerome (UVa) ...36th TO/gm....SLU....C...trending...B-.......UVa ...A+....1st ITN Summary....Our defense and reb compares favorably with UVa...Offense has a ways to go. Here are the top 6 defenses ITN...these are generally determined by using Def FG% 1 Hou 2. Tex Tech 3 Mich St. 4. UC Irv 5 UVa 6 VCU The above table is for anyone who still thinks defense isn't that important. Bottom line....This was a successful year for the Bills even though we under performed. . Projected win total for the regular season was 23....If everything went right ...27...if everything went wrong ...19...This season fell into the everything went wrong and yet we still managed to improve our win total again....we won the A-10 tourney and made it to the Dance. If we can continue to build on our success (it looks like offensive help is on the way) ...Things will look promising for next year. How will we do next year? Since we don't know what our team will look like next year (or the other teams) it is way to early to predict. But check back here during the first week in Nov and I will have my preseason forecast up. Have a great summer everyone....and Go Bills
  15. Peppe's...upscale restaurant with great food and service...Can be a special occasion place....A+
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