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The Wiz

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Listener of the Streets

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  1. You are correct ....I use my true wizardry skills for the big money.
  2. Here are what the numbers look like to me.... Last year's slash line looks great....unfortunately , because of his shortened season, the numbers don't register because they are all small sample sizes. I have put together a more meaningful slash line...lines from seasons that have enough data. 41.6% (18-19)/ 35% (19-20) / 82% (18-19 & 19-20) Note...while previous 3P seasons qualified, only 19-20 has the current 3P line.,,,again 20-21 sm sam size Graded out slash....D / B- / A+
  3. I liked that he shot 61% from the 3pt line at BBE.
  4. https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/sports/us-supreme-court-rejects-ncaa-defense-athlete-compensation-limits-2021-06-21/
  5. If you can pardon the pun, the ball is now in the NCAA's court. "IF".... they can figure out a fair and equitable way to distribute the incoming revenues so all teams have a level playing field then college sports will be able to continue to function. This court decision forces the NCAA to deal with something that it didn't want to....and now the chickens have come home to roost. I am sure the NCAA will do what is right....please insert blue font on this line
  6. In a unanimous decision, the Supreme Court ruled that college athletes are entitled to compensation beyond the existing athletic scholarships. This earth shaking court opinion will change college sports forever.
  7. Get a brain, a heart and some courage too, Then grab a a basketball And come to St. Louis U. You can't go wrong following The Wiz
  8. Here are the numbers as I see them on Verge..... 39.1% / 41.4 / 33.3/ 80.9......FG%/ 2P% / 3P% / FT%....F- / F- / C / A+ Even the 3P% is shaky....I had mentioned in an earlier post , in order to be at least a neutral factor on the Bills team, a player would have to shoot at least 34.3% from the arc (C+)...Neutral factor is determined by comparing team 2P% vs player's 3P% shooting. If any Bills player shoots less than 34.3% then the team is better off taking a 2pt shot. A 35.2% player (B ) is a positive addition from the arc for the Bills....ie there is a net gain over shooting 2s. Very nice FT shooter....A great player to have with a 2pt lead with 2 min left in the game. Verdict on Verge...He could be a nice player ...IF... he steps up his game. Shooting numbers coming into this year are weak except for FTs.
  9. I have some concerns about Cook. The 38.4% from his second season was from the old, shorter line. The 35% from last year is not valid due to the small sample size....he only made 14 threes, not enough to assign a grade. In fact of the the 5 seasons , he played only 2 ( the 2nd and 3rd seasons) are considered large enough to make an evaluation. The computer is projecting for the coming season (assuming he makes at least 25 threes) he will shoot between 32.3% and 32.9%....which puts him at D+ . To be a value added player at SLU, a Billiken player needs to shoot at least 34.3% from the arc. ...35.2% or greater would be a big addition. Other concerns across the slash line....2P%....47.6%....B+ (2017-18)....42.9%...F+ (2018-19) ...................................................................FT%....69.6%....C- (2017-18).....65.1%...F (2018-19) Bottom line....Only 2 of 5 seasons generated enough data to make an evaluation of his offensive skills ...2nd year was good... 3rd year was not. Even his 2 years of 3 pt shooting from the shorter line showed a significant drop off from 38.4% (B+ ) (2nd season) to 34.8% (D+ )(3rd season) Given his projected 3pt production for the coming year and a volatile 2P% added to weak FT shooting....The Bills will have to think about this player for awhile before making a decision.
  10. The simple answer is yes. Here is the long answer..... In the chart below, we will look at how 2 and 3Pt shots have been affected by moving the arc back. I particularly want to focus on 3 P shot value. 3P shots are more valuable shots than 2P shots. Exactly 50% more. The questions are... when is it worth taking the 3P shot ....who is taking it ...how has the extra distance affected the 3....and most importantly for this thread, who should we be looking for as a transfer. Let's look at the numbers....These will be team stats from all D1 schools....note that these numbers are pretty close to individual player numbers. First let's look at the elite teams....A+....3 seasons will be shown for all charts....The 2018-2019 season is the last season with the shorter 3P line. A+ teams .................2P%...........3P%......3P value ( 3P% x 1.5).......Difference (3P value-2P%) 2019.........55.7%..........39.1%............58.65............................+2.95% 2020........54.7%...........37.5..............56.25..............................+1.55 2021.........55.2..............37.7...............56.55..............................+1.35% C teams (average) 2019..........50.3.............34.2...............51.30..............................+1.0% 2020..........49.4..............33.3..............49.95...........................+0.55 2021..........49.7................33.5..............50.25...........................+0.55 The Bills 2019............46.6.............30.4................45.6.............................-1.0% 2020............49.7..............34.2................51.3.............................+1.6% 2021............51.3...............34.8................52.2............................+0.9 A few take aways....Again the answer to your question is ...yes , moving back the line did affect shooting. These charts show how much. Overall it cut the value of 3P shots by about half....exactly what the NCAA was trying to do. And the affect was pretty much across the board. You will note that the elite shooters value % were about 3x the values of average shooters...before and after the change. EXCEPT in the bizzarro world of the Billikens....When the NCAA moved the line back our numbers got better. Because our shooting was so bad in 2019 even though the line was closer for 3s, we should have only been shooting 2s because of the negative value. Another strange twist is our 3P% went up this year but our 3P value dropped because of better 2P shooting. That all means that last year it was more valuable to take a 3 than this year despite higher 3P stats this year. Finally, with these numbers in hand ....who should we be looking for in the transfer portal. The easy answer is take a 37.7%+ 3P shooter. The correct answer though would be to take at least a 35.2% guy who has made a minimum 25 shots this past season. That would give us true A+ value based on The Bills numbers. Bottom line.... It is still a good idea to shoot 3s as long as you are not terrible at it. For The Bills, the minimum shooter would have to be 34.3% and ideally at least 35.2%.
  11. Good stuff.... I would make 1 footnote. When looking at individual player stats, sample size is important. You would not want to rate a player who has only taken and made 1 FG , one 3P and 1 FT and comes up with a score of 300.Here is what is generally considered a qualifying sample size in D1. 100 FGM 25 3PM 50 FTM So based on those sample sizes the only player qualifying is Perkins ....well above the 163.5 for an A+. Also, a number of Bills players qualify on individual parts of the slash without qualifying for the whole line. For instance , Jimerson's 39.4% from the arc gives him an A+ .
  12. The 3 Pt foul shot is relatively rare when compared to all foul shots taken. I don't have any data that separates it out. Observationally, 3 P shooters tend to be better foul shooters....since 71.1 is C rated I would say 75% in general would be a good guess.
  13. It was 180....RM use to say he would take a 180 player ....sight unseen. For a comparison ...on my system which rates all D1 players and then grades them on a curve ...an A+ player (D1) during the RM years while at SLU was 162.8. ( 47.6 / 39.1 / 76.1 ) which explains why he would take a player sight unseen. A 180 player would be like a AAA. Again for comparison ....adjusting for the new 3 pt line ...an A+ player in 2021 would be 163.5 ( 47.8 / 37.7 / 78 ). Overall in D1 ... FG% about the same.....3P% down and FT% up since the RM years. Btw...The upcoming season will be the 10th anniversary of RM's best and last full season as SLU's head coach.
  14. https://sports.yahoo.com/sean-miller-firing-college-basketball-losing-ncaa-case-235343119.html
  15. The 20-21 season will go down as one of the strangest in Bills history...and a season of lost opportunity...and that is saying a lot. We started the season off late. This gave us an additional 2 weeks of preseason hype. The great thing was ....we actually lived up to the hype...getting off to a great start with wins over LSU and NCSt and our only loss to Minn in what I consider one of the most difficult venues for an away team. Yes , those preseason forecasts of an A-10 championship and going to the Dance were on track . And then it happened.... 'Twas the night after Christmas And Covid appeared We went into lockdown And the season disappeared. And thus it became a tale of 2 teams....pre covid and post covid. The following report card looks a little different than usual ....The 1st and 3rd columns are the end of the season grades ...the 2nd and 4th columns are Christmas day when we were at our peak. It was around Xmas that I had us ranked at 18th ITN...AP had us at 23rd. While things deteriorated after Covid, not everything fell apart. If you look at the report card closely, you will see the offense fell off, especially the 3P shooting.... we went from one of the top teams ITN to just above average. If you just take the post Covid 3P shooting by itself , we graded out at D. But again , it wasn't all doom and gloom. We improved on defense ...across the board. This is what kept us alive post covid. Let's take a look at the report card. ........End of Season...........Xmas............................End...................................Xmas ..................................OFF............................................................DEF......................... PPG...............B+....................A-...............................A-........................................B+ FG%...............B+....................A................................B..........................................C+ 3Pt%..............B-.....................A+...16th ITN.............C.........................................C- FT%................C-....... .............B................................................................................. Reb.................A-....................C+...............................A+...14h ITN......................A+...9th ITN OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Offense.....Reb...............Defense .....PPG....FG%.....3P% Down...Offense......PPG.....FG%...3P%....FT%........Defense......none Top 100 ITN (In The Nation) Assts...Collins...10th ...dn Rebs...Goodwin....17th....dn Stls......Goodwin...29th....up FT%....Perkins...50th......up Double Double....Goodwin...8th ....dn A couple of notes.....Even though it was a down year for Jimerson...he still finished as an A+ player in 3P% (39.4%) and while not a top 100, the A+ is good for the top 5% of qualified shooters......Perkins needed 1 more 3PM and he would have been 95th ITN in PPG and an A+ 3 P shooter....he finishes at 101 and A for the year. ...As for the double double pace, had we played a full season, Goodwin would have lead the nation. The players in front of him all had more games to make their double doubles. Now let's look at the A-10 forecast.... .....................Season end.....preseason (11/24/20)........Difference St. B...............A-....................B..................................+2 SLU................B+....................B+.................................0 Rich................B+....................B+.................................0 VCU................B+....................B-..................................+2 Dav.................B+....................B.....................................+1 Day................B........................B+................................ -1 RI...................B.........................B....................................0 UMass..........B-........................C+..................................+1 Duq...............B-........................B....................................-1 GM................C+........................C+.................................0 St. J................C-.......................C-...................................0 LaS.................C-.........................C-.................................0 GW..................D+.........................C.................................-2 For...................D-.........................D...................................-1 79%......with the exact grade or within 1 step 100% within 2 steps Which is the goal for the preseason forecast...to be within 2 steps of the original forecast. Biggest surprise....St. B and VCU....biggest disappointment....GW And of course, we were right on the cusp of A- at the end of the season...actually almost between A- and B+ the difference between making the tournament or not. I described it in one of the season ending posts before selection Sunday as a coin flip and the Bills landed on the coin's edge...neither heads or tails. So what does this all mean? The biggest question I have heard this season is ....What would have happened if the Covid hadn't hit the Bills? So here is what I did.....I took our Xmas data and projected it to March.....Assume there was no Covid and assume the Bills didn't improve or get worse ....what would have happened? The first thing the computer does is to see who at the end of the season was most like the Xmas Bills......The answer is ...SD St U....What this means is after the season is over, which of the 346 teams would the Bills have been most likely to tie. From there it shows us finishing at 16th ITN....and a 6th round seed in the Dance. Of course, the irony here is the SDSU game was one of our canceled games this year and would have been a quality win. Finally to rub some salt into the wound ....we would have beaten the Aztecs by 4. But the sun will rise again tomorrow and soon I will be working on the 2021-2022 Bills preseason forecast . A forecast that will show the Bills sneaking up on the rest of the A-10 and the college basketball world with a strong season . To quote a famous passage.... "....And I heard him exclaim, as he shouted out clear, BILLIKENS WILL WIN It will be better next year."
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