Jump to content
Billikens.com Message Board

The Wiz

Billikens.com Donor
  • Content Count

    2,615
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    6

About The Wiz

  • Rank
    The Wizard of Odds

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male

Recent Profile Visitors

8,998 profile views
  1. The Wiz

    The Bills over OSU by 2

    A great win...not always pretty but a win....Also within the normal spread variance of -1 to +4. So here is an important announcement....I have a way to fix our FT shooting and get us more points /gm I will be back to that in a moment....first let's look at our slash line...I am going to expand it a bit to FG%/ 2P%/3P%/FT%......42/ 34/ 67/ 47....which grades out to ....F / F- / A+ / F-...If you take away the poor , slow start....0-7 to start the game....we finish at 49% FG% or an A. ...so there is a lot hidden in the numbers. In terms of slash performance....we should have made an additional 8 FTs and 2 additional 2 pointers....8FTs + 2 two pointers = 12pts more...however...we made 4 extra 3s =12pts...so through a strange quirk we make the slash line which is always important in winning the game.... As for the FT improvement I mentioned above ...here is the plan....We take all our foul shots from the 3 pt line. Seriously though.. since when does your highest slash number out of 4 become your 3P% number....only in bizzaro Billiken world. Let's look at the rest of the numbers.... TO differential...15 vs 17 in favor of the Bills....PASS...the extra 2 TOs by OSU were worth 4 pts to the Bills ...the difference in the game....while 15 is too high the differential was more important...we still need to keep TOs around 12 for the future.... Stop Tinkle....PASS and FAIL...I was looking at 15pts and 6 reb....actual 15pts and 10 reb...all in all a pretty good job on him Shot blocker Kelley....PASS....he had 2 blks...about half his normal.... OSU steals...PASS...a stealing team...they took 8 from us...this was a pass because we took 10 from them OSU slash 40/27/77...PASS...pretty much kept them in check...FT% was higher than normal as we kept fouling their good foul shooter FT battle....PASS...What??? this has to be a mistake....I said in a close game the deciding factor would be FTs....well we sure didn't beat them % wise as they trounced us 77% to 47%...so how did we pass?...we took nearly twice as many shots as they did and beat them at the line ...15pts to 13pts...another strange twist in Billiken bizzaro world. A tip o' the cap to Bess ...career high performance 24pts...56/60/43 ........and to Thatch ...great performance in 1st start...16 pts...71/80/40 And finally The Bills showed again why their defense is on the Honor Roll. Bottom line...The Bills beat a good team by doing what they were supposed to do even though it was strange at times and not always pretty.....They faded at the end because they were gassed.....something we saw last year when they were short of players and lacked depth...hopefully we get some bodies back and ease the pressure. We bent but didn't break...something we have done a few times this season...a mark of a good team...a mark of a winning team....
  2. The Wiz

    The Bills over OSU by 2

    Glad to see Vegas lining up with me (again)...The concern on the spread is the variability....It doesn't usually matter on the wider spreads ... a win is a win . but on the closer spreads it can make a difference....On this game , the variability is 5 pts....Bills by 4 to OSU by 1.....Which means anything within that spread is normal.....this is different than the margin.of error..which is usually outside this V spread and usually about 3 pts. I use spreads as measuring tools...how are we doing...something is usually happening (good or bad) when we finish outside the spread variability and the margin of error. The concern is always when the variability spread and/ or the margin of error crosses over and can change the forecasted outcome as it was in the SIU game and the Pitt game and in this one..... If we DWWN2D2W, as mentioned in the original post , we will win this game.
  3. The Wiz

    2018-19 season

    Just a couple of notes on the regular season champ going to March Madness.... Since the Bills have been in the A-10 ( 13 years) the A-10 regular season conference champ has gone every year to the NCAA tourney. In addition , about 2/3 of all regular season conf champs go to the Big Dance. Last year 23 of the 33 conference season winners made it ....the 10 that didn't make it are from the bottom feeding conferences... F conferences like the Southwestern and Mid Eastern...wait is this the conf that has Saudi Arabia and Yemen in it? No wonder they didn't make it in...Anyway, the A-10 is way above these conferences in talent. Bottomline....25-6 season would lead to a conf title...and if it didn't that means we swept the rest of the OOC which would put us in one of the remaining at large bids.
  4. The Wiz

    The Bills over OSU by 2

    Yes to everything.....The data is like a moving average in the market....it takes into acct everything that has happened including a little more weight to recent trends....SH is currently a B+ team... a little bit lower than when we played them but still a great win....it looks like an A- because we beat them at their place.....A win by SH over KY would help us....SH would move back to A-....I am currently showing KY over SH by 3....a very winnable game for SH....big hype ...big crowd......big time.... This is why I had mentioned in an earlier post that we should be rooting for all our opponents to win all their games (except against us)....It only helps the Bills...and when our opponents beat good teams it helps us more.
  5. First a quick note on SIU...the sky isn't falling ...We are still a B team....SIU and Pitt are both B teams...not bad losses...just lost opportunities...we played 2 teams similar to us and lost in close games....the damage was that.we played a really poor offensive game (even for the Bills) which is hard thing to do when you are near the bottom in offense . YET...we were able to hang in there till the final seconds because we have one of the top defenses in the game. When you have great defense , you are never out of the game. My advice is to write the SIU game off as an anomaly and move on....We are 6-2 at this point...which is where I had us at the beginning of the season....In the last 2 games , I had us 1-1 except turned around ...Butler loss and SIU win....it actually works out better this way....so we have.2 good wins...SH and But....B+ and A...quality wins against BE teams (A- conf). Which bring us to Ore St... A game we should win against a quality team....B+ Ore St poses some unique challenges First let's look at the report card...... .................................SLU..............................OSU.................................................SLU.............................OSU ..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF............... PPG.........................F+...................................C+.................................................A.................................B+ FG%..........................D...................................B+.................................................A..................................B+ 3P%..........................D-....................................C..................................................A+....18th ITN............C+ FT%...........................F.....................................D......................................................................................... Reb............................A...................................B.................................................B-.................................B+ Top 100 ITN BLKS....Gordon...84th....French....97th ... .............Kelly....3rd Pts....Tinkle...42nd Reb.....Tinkle...28th Stls....Goodwin....97th ......Thompson Jr......66th Honor Roll ...the Bills Defense. Some interesting things here....A lot of top rated categories covered by OSU....This guy Kelly is a shot blocking machine....We just saw a good one in Bol at SIU who was 78th ITN...Kelly is way beyond that. We have 2 good ones in French and Gordon....he is better than the 2 of them combined stat wise.... Overall they are not as good as SIU in Off and a little better in D and Reb....You say SIU wasn't that good on OFF...that is wrong ...we shut them down...something we will have to do again to OSU.. WWN2D2W.....Tinkle , Tinkle little star....Nooo...Big Star....besides being a leader in the national categories of Pts and Reb ...he also leads the team in assists and FG%...Stop this guy....15pts or less....6reb...While that will be a big help that isn't the end of our issues...Kelley will be a big problem...shot blocker extraordinaire...Ford may have to run around in practice with a broom over his head knocking down shots....we will either have to avoid him or go around him....Putting up a bunch of 3s isn't the answer....The importance of the TO battle will be that we have to win the differential...besides Thompson Jr they have a few stealers....protect the ball....and last but not least....win the free throw battle....have I gone mad...no...OSU is a poor FT shooting team...could be a difference maker in a close game. Bottom line...With all that said, we can beat them....They are a B+ team...having the home advantage (hopefully another big crowd) plus a defense that will disrupt them evens the game out and gives us a slight advantage....key word is slight. If we shoot more normal this game and keep TOs down ...stop the Tinkle and avoid the blockster...we will win. Go Bills BTW ...even though the Bills are at 8 games OSU only has 7 so I am still a little short on data....After this game we will be playing with a full deck.
  6. The Wiz

    2018-19 season

    I think the winner of the A-10 conference will be a B+ team....So if your question is can we finish in the top 3 of the A-10 tourney....the answer is yes...there may only be 1 or 2 B+ teams.... My feeling as I expressed earlier is we need to win the A-10 conf.....If we win the conference , I think we will get a bid to the NCAA....In order to do this we will need to become a B+ team. We will need more than 8 players to do this. With Wiley out and Bess not at full speed we are at 8 players....We learned last year that 8 over a long period of time doesn't work well. Winning the A-10 conf will be easier than in previous years but will be no small task. We can do it , if we start to play better....not a whole lot better ...just better....If we can shoot better ie avoid games like the SIU debacle....just shoot average....Billiken average not D-1 average....I think our defense has improved enough that if we can shoot Billiken average we can win most games going forward...avoid excess TOs...try to stay in the 12 area....and finally convert some fast breaks....not all of them ...some of them.... If it looks like I am lowering the offensive bar...I am.....You can do that when you play an A defense. A small step up will take us far.
  7. The Wiz

    2018-19 season

    I get it ...winning the conference is not a guarantee of an NCAA berth....but then again it is....In the 13 years since SLU has been in the A-10...the conference champ has gone to March Madness each year....and if we finish at 25-6....figuring 2 more OOC losses ...would leave us with 2 conf losses....or an 85% chance to win the conf....given the parity and no dominant team in the A-10...means the chance of finishing first in the A-10 with 2 losses is in the 90s..... Right now we are a B team....which means we have a chance to win the A-10....we really need to be at B+ or higher to have a good chance to win the Conf title......On Monday , I will put out an A-10 review when all teams have 8 games (except RI )and we will see what the conf race looks like at that time.
  8. The Wiz

    2018-19 season

    No... The A-10 conference
  9. The Wiz

    2018-19 season

    If we go 25-6...the at large bid won't matter.....we will win the A-10
  10. The Wiz

    The Bills over SIU by 1

    This game had danger written all over it....Going on the road after a big game leading to a let down....yet...this game was winnable... many times during the night.... a bucket full of missed opportunities. If you had told me before the game that SIU 's slash would be 45/22/ 52....C-/ F-/ F-... I would have told you ...easy Bills win....holding the 13th ITN in 3P% to less than half of their average....we got em...But this was not to be our night ...The Bills shot a dismal....33/ 23 / 44....F-/ F-/ F-...Forget about a good shooting night....if we had just shot our normal poor slash line (our season average)...we would have had 6 more 2s...2 more 3s...and 2 more FTs....Here's the math...12 + 6+ 2 = 20pts...we left 20 pts on the table.....with an average ... not a good night ...but an average night....the Bills win by 15 pts...............16 TOs ...not good ...but that didn't cost us the game because SIU had 16 also....Here's the clincher ...we lose the game at the FT line....Even though SIU has their worst night of FT shooting....11/21 (52%)...we shoot 4/9 (44%)....the extra 7 pts at the FT line is the difference in the game. Bess gets 3 points going 10/14/ NA....1-10/ 1-7/ 0-0...I point this out not to get on him but to show he was not right ...actually a valiant effort since he was a pending scratch right up to game time. Bottom line....Tonight we couldn't shoot fish in a barrel.....In the immortal words of Coach K...."Next Game"
  11. The Wiz

    The Bills over SIU by 1

    Most likely a loss... Projection would depend on what player or players took his place..... In a close game (within 3pts) you take away a team's leading scorer and they lose.
  12. The Wiz

    The Bills over SIU by 1

    That should work too.... Again depending on whether Bess plays
  13. The Wiz

    The Bills over SIU by 1

    You should be OK....... UNLESS... Bess doesn't play
  14. The Wiz

    NET....a tool or to be tooled

    How many games will they need to make it work....all of them.....but you are correct ...in the end they will come together with my system and others with a little P5 bias.(as BRoy would say)....It will work because of the " secret sauce"....after the season is over, the " magic adjustment" they have said they will make that will "fix" everything. Fix is the correct word in this sentence. I agree with BRoy in that there should be an all inclusive tournament....where the lower 175 teams play each other and then gradually step up to play the upper teams....like the A-10 tournament does. ...only on a bigger scale. Maybe even do away with the Conf tourneys and use all those venues as sites for the super tournament.
  15. Time for a rant on the the NET....the Ncaa Evaluation Tool This system was not thought out very well ....not to mention it's lack of transparency. I have ranted on this before ...Time for another installment We are rated #48 in this weeks poll...you could argue ...not bad....better than a lot of other places....with 1 big difference ...none of those other polls or rankings mean or decide anything. This one does...it is the only one that does. It is the decider and therefore it is important. In our last installment last week, we talked about the #1 team in the A-10 according to NET....the one everyone is talking about--Duq (too lazy to put this last phrase into blue font).. We could talk about #22 Pitt in this segment .. a team we not only played even on the scoreboard but statistically as well...Pitt beat us by 2 ...and they finish 26 spots ahead of us...or that we beat a favored Butler team by double digits and finish ahead of them in the standings by 1....We could talk about Furman who at C+ is only 2 behind us even though they are projected to finish 4th in the Southern conference and have a D rated SOS at this point...254 No...what we will talk about in this chapter will be Liberty....You know that Bball powerhouse everyone talks about....Duke... Kansas ...Liberty....#35 in this week's standings...13 ahead of the Bills. What do you mean you don't know who they are? The darlings of the Atlantic Sun....No Atlantic Sun is not a resort ...it is a D-1 conference...currently rated as F+...and with an F rated SOS...the 23rd weakest schedule in D-1(330)...it is easy to see why they would be an NCAA fav (imagine more blue font)...The sad thing is Liberty is not even projected to win there conference...super Lipscomb will squeeze them out.... Which brings us to the point of this rant....Suppose Liberty was squeezed out ASun championship...and they were given an at large bid (after all they were #35)...How would you feel if they were the ones who knocked out the #48 Bills.....just sayin... Will the Ncaa Evaluation Tool be a tool to pick qualified teams or will it be a system to turn the NCAA into a Tool End of the rant.... For now
×