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The Wiz

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Listener of the Streets

Listener of the Streets (6/7)

  1. As for the 4 little PIGs...Duq...Fham...GW ...LaS.....The Big Bad Billiken will huff and puff and blow them all away. In the game we just won by 31...these are the minutes for the mop up crew.... Courtney....3 min...2pts...FG (1-1 )...2 rebs...1 PF Strickland...5 min...2 pts...FG (0-2)...FT (2-4)... rebs 2... stl..1 Lorentsson...3 min ....assts ...1
  2. Before we get started ...I noticed that Aub is now #1 ITN...a chance to beat them was only 2 seconds away....Moral of the story ...we can beat anybody...not just in the A-10...but anybody. Chance 2 Dance The Bills....54%...up Day............50%....dn VCU...........49%....up Dav............45%....dn Big jump up for the Bills after the 2nd game UMass win 3 takeaways from the latest C2D... 1...We have the best C2D in the A-10...again 2...UMass series...whatever we lost on game 1 , we made up on game 2 3...Over emphasis on individual games...very few teams win them all...The Bills should win the vast majority of their remaining games. Next up D rated GW....GW will probably be a PIG team. In the games against UMass, I mentioned that UM was the worst team on defense we will face this year.. While GW's defense is slightly better than UMass , GW has the worst offense we will face this year. On top of that one of their top player's is questionable for our game. This will be a cake walk... IF... we play like we did against UMass part 2. Let's see what the report card says... ...................SLU.....................GW..........................SLU.........................GW .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............A........................F+...........................C+..............................D+ FG%...............B.......................D-.............................B+.............................D+ 3Pt%.............A-.......................F...............................B+.............................A- FT%...............A........................F................................................................. Reb...............A.......................D.................................A-.............................F- 7th WITN OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Off...Reb.....Def.....FG%...3P% Down....Off...FT%.....Def...none Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN FTM/gm....The Bills...4th...dn FTA/gm....The Bills....8th....unch FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...4th...unch Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm SLU Assts...Collins... 2nd... unch...with a good game , Yuri can move into 1st ITN and all time SLU Assts leader Stls......Collins....37th....up FT%...Jimerson...78rd...dn Dou-Dou....Collins...94th...new PPG...Jimerson...74th...up GW Stls...Lindo...59th Blks...Lindo...46th The report card is looking good with the offense 1 grade away from the honor roll(straight A's) and the defense 1 grade away from honorable mention (straight B's). We are looking more and more like a balanced team and that is a good thing. Injury/ Illness Lindo..Fwd...Ques..Undisclosed injury...1/22/22..Lindo has missed the last 2 games with an injury. It is uncertain if he will face us. Keys to the game... Our good defense needs to shut down GW...I mean really shut them down...like less than 60 pts. With a weak defense and an even weaker offense plus virtually no rebounding, it looks bleak for GW. The one bright spot for them is 3P defense where they come up with an A- . What does this mean for the Bills ...if you have a good 3 P shot take it, if not there will be plenty of other ways to score ...find them. The only way they can win is if we let them win. WWN2D2W.... We need to play Billiken ball...Make our slash...48/37/ 77...this was one of the few weak spots in the last UMass game...everything else was so good it didn't matter but we need to get back on track shooting wise. ...Reb...10+...they are weak on the boards ..take advantage...TOs 11.. this is an area where we could give away points ...no reason to ..we showed we can take care of the ball in the last game...do it again.....Bishop and Bamisile are their offensive threats...hold them to a combined 23pts....If Lindo doesn't play because of his injury, the spread will move into the 20s...... Word of warning...no overconfidence ...RI put a smack down on UMass and then a week later lost to GW. ...beware Bottom line... Remember UMass part2 and then hold that thought.... If we do... And play like part 2 The Colonials will be through.
  3. I don't think I have anything that can help either you or @slufanskip...The closest I have is FTA/FGA for you and Assists/ FGM for skip. But I don't think that is what either of you is looking for specifically.
  4. I am going to add some grades to your numbers.... the only difference I have is Jones at 39.4%...I show him with 13-33...either way he still grades out at A+. As a team the Bills come in as an A- 3P team Jimerson....43%...A+ Jones..........39.4...A+ Hargrove....35.2....B+ Nesbitt.........35......B Collins...........33.3...C Let me add 1 more thing to this 3P discussion ....when is it advantageous for the Bills to take a 3. The Bills currently shoot 48.9% from 2. In order to make it worthwhile to shoot a 3 whoever takes the shot needs to hit at a rate of at least 32.7%.... When Jimerson shoots it is the equivalent of a 2 pt shooter at 64.5% Trivia question ...When should Jimerson shoot?...Answer ...anytime he wants.
  5. I had a poster who sent me a note and was having some fun because I had picked a double digit spread...He asked me...Did I not see the first game? It is only 3 days later ...how could I expect a different out come? Nothing will change. Well , yes I did see the first game and so did the computer (in an AR way) and that 's why we saw a double digit win. The first game was an anomaly. Today's game was more representative of who we are. Let's see what happened....bolded statements are from original post. Hopefully, they come in to this game mad with a chip on their shoulder....to get a little revenge.....They did, they did and they did. And because they did all 3, they won big and made a statement. Let me also say here, that some will diminish this victory saying that UMass is a bottom feeder. ...Just not true...while they are not a tourney team, they are not a bottom feeder either. They are a C+ team (above average overall) and 4th ITN in 3P%. Beating them at home takes a little away but winning by 30+ adds it back in. Reb ...win the battle by 8+...this is an important stat...the last thing we want to do is give them extra chances.... And this was the the game changer ....This is why we won this time and won big... and one of the reasons we lost last time. We out rebounded them 55-35 an extra 12 over what was projected....on both ends of the court...+9 on Off and +11 on Def. We had extra chances AND took chances away from them...what good is it to force them to miss a shot only to give them extra chances....2nd chance pts Bills win 25-13....overall an extra 12 shots in the game.... Excellent keep TO to 11... This has been a problem this season...10 or less is an A+ ...we came in at 8......Pts off of TOs...Bills win again... 12pts-8pts... Great job. our slash 48/38/77... Actual...46/30/57... this fell a little short but it didn't matter. The projected slash assumes UMass will have a more normal slash....and instead ran into our shutdown defense. UM slash...29/27/82....the key was the UM 3s...they missed 5 extra 3s... 15 pts missing from their total...another key to our victory. UMass will be the worst team we face this year on defense...This in know way should diminish the win....The difference between game 1 and game 2 was 5 pts...we scored only 5 pts more than last time...Why?... because it was the same defense we went up against last time. Yet we lost game 1 by 5pts and won game 2 by 31pts.... a 36 pt difference....that is because this game we had defense and rebounding. We bothered them this game...they rushed shots ...they were out of position. R Kelly 17th ITN in 3s shooting 52% from the arc shot 25%...someone will say but he only took 4 shots...BINGO...welcome to Bills 3D. Hold their top 3 scorers to 33 pts... Top 3 scored 39...but it didn't matter...their big guns were silent. Fernandes who is leading the team with 16+pts/gm...held to 3...amazing...The Kellys R & CJ were held to 5 and zero...Weeks finished with 2....Their top 3 from the 1st game scored 52 against us...This game 21 pts....Hmmm 52-21=31pts...where have we seen the number 31 before? Finally from the post game analysis of game 1....FTA. ..FTA and FTM were important in the 1st game,,,not only the volume that UMass had but the difference in in numbers between SLU and UM. I pointed out that it was an aberration and would not occur again The FTA for both teams in this game fell within normal. And the only reason it mattered in the last game was because it was a close contest. Had the Bills played like this on Thur , the difference in FTs wouldn't have mattered. Bottomline... This was a statement game...not because we beat a C+ team by 30 but it showed the team what was possible ...like when we battled #2 Auburn to the final 2 seconds a month ago. If we keep Rebs high and TOs low and play a little D, anything is possible. We didn't even have a good shooting day ...I know we can shoot better than 30% from the arc and 57% from the FT line....because we have all season....We need to take what we did today and hold that thought .
  6. Bills ........PF/ gm....18.3...D...........opp PF/gm...19.2....A..............We foul a lot ...our opponents foul us more ................FT%........77.5%....................opp FT%....67.5% ................FTA.........22.5/gm.....................opp FTA...20.6/gm ................FTM/gm....17.4/gm..2nd ITN....opp FTM/ gm...13.9 Bottom line ...we have a 3.5 pt advantage at the charity stripe every game (which is huge)...so it doesn't look like the refs are out to get us every game....This last game against UMass , for whatever reason....UMass had 13 extra FTA and 8 extra FTM....This was an anomaly....Was this the only reason we lost?...No, but it was a game changer.
  7. Hopefully they come in to this game mad with a chip on their shoulder....to get a little revenge. This is part 2 (game 2)...much of the written part will be similar to part 1. All numbers and grades have been updated. If the new spread is a shock to you after last night's loss then you need to take a look at my post game analysis in part 1. Even if you don't want to learn about why we lost, you can find out why we are a heavy favorite in this game. The loss hurt our Chance to Dance numbers but we are still in it ....just a longer road now. The numbers show there still isn't a dominant team in the A-10. Chance to Dance SLU...45%...dn Dav...53%...unch Day...52%...up vCU...48%....dn No other A-10 teams that are at least 40% This brings us to part 2 of a 2 game series with UMass...First , let me say that UMass is not a bottom feeder they are a C+ team slightly above average...they won't be Dancing but they won't be a PIG team either.,,,Thur was a key game, the more difficult of the 2 because we started there. A win at UMass would have meant a sweep. The theme for this game will be ....It's all about the 3s. UMass comes in as one of the top shooting 3P teams ITN ...#4. They will be dropping bombs all night...They are 6th ITN in 3PM....44% of all their shots are 3s...they make only slightly more of their 2s than 3s...48%/41%. But there is good news too. UMass will be the worst team we face this year on defense. We will have plenty of open looks ..we just need to make shots ...btw, they don't rebound. We didn't take advantage of the reb advantage last night...which was a factor in the loss. ....The UMass philosophy will be the same as last night and every night they play......we plan on winning by outscoring you in a high scoring game...we will leave you alone...please don't bother us and let us have some open shots.. Let's get to the report card and see what's happening... ...................SLU.....................Mass..........................SLU.........................Mass .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............A........................A-...........................C+..............................F- 12th WITN FG%...............B.......................C+...........................B-...............................F- 7th WITN 3Pt%.............A-.......................A+...4th ITN...........B...............................F FT%...............A+..19th ITN......B................................................................. Reb...............B+......................F+..............................A-.............................C OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Off...FT%.....Def.....none Down....Off...Rebs.....Def...PPG...FG%...3P% Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN FTM/gm....The Bills...2nd...up FTA/gm....The Bills....8th....up FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...4th...unch Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm SLU Assts...Collins... 2nd... unch Stls......Collins....54th....dn FT%...Jimerson...63rd...up Blks...Okoro...94th...dn PPG...Jimerson...94th...new Mass Assts...Fernandes...26th Injury/ Illness Courtney...Out Indefinitely ...Illness...1/15/22...No date for return has been established. Mass Santos...Out indefinitely.....undisclosed injury...1/20/22...has missed 5 games.. Walker...Out for season....Leg...1/6/22...Femur injury Keys to the game... The keys is the 3s....We will need to use all of our 3P defense to contain them from the arc....they have 4 or 5 that can pop from the 3P line....3 key players to watch ...Fernandes...leads the team in PPG...Assts...FG%...Stls... Buttrick...Reb and Blks ....R Kelly (no relation to CJ)...52% from 3....17th ITN...Rebound ..we beat them by 1 on the boards ...not good against a weak rebounding team...a contributing factor to last night's loss WWN2D2W.... Hold their top 3 scorers to 33 pts.......our slash 48/38/77...we will have some good looks...make the shots.......80+ pts will be enough to win if we play D.......keep TO to 11...they will not force TOs . .UMass is a D+ in forcing TOs BUT they do protect the ball ...only 9 TOs last night. ...Reb ...win the battle by 8+...this is an important stat...the last thing we want to do is give them extra chances. Bottom line...UMass will not have 33 FTA in game 2.. we will pick up points on the charity stripe.....+1 on Rebs won't get it done...Dominate....No open looks on 3s for them...we need to bother them a little more...if we can't force a few TOs , force a few deflections. We are the better team ..on offense and defense. We have to show it...If we come to this game with an edge...time will run out on the Minutemen.
  8. This is why the fouling out of Okoro in the final minute and Linssen not up to speed at the end was a dagger to us. I believe with Okoro in there in the last minute the outcome could have been different, As mentioned in my post game analysis above ...the shadow of the fpul strikes again...it was not just the extra foul shots for Mass but also the loss of Okoro at a key moment and others sitting as a result of foul trouble.
  9. Painful game to lose ...also a strange game.....painful because it was strange....Strange because we lost after the clock stopped (hold that thought)....Strange because nearly all the numbers matched....Here are just some of those numbers ....................SLU.......Mass FG%.............51%......52% 3P%.............37%......35%...we stopped them here...good job FG/FGA.......30-59...29-56......1 extra shot made 3P/3PA........7-19.......7-20....... shots made.... even...another plus Rebs.............31............30...fail...they made the expected number... we were 8 short....their baskets made would have been less (or maybe a few extra baskets for us) if we had grabbed 8 more rebs. 2nd chance pts...13.........12....... Pts off TOs..........13........14 Lead change...........26 times Score tied ...............15 times I could go on but you get the idea...everything was extremely tight....are you still holding the thought from above? the one that said...we lost after the clock stopped....FTs......Our strongest suit ...our strength....Our FT % was 90% (18-20) ...well, that's great even for a good FT shooting team. They shot 78% (26-33 not bad and better than they usually do...so what happened? They had 13 extra FTA ...13 x 78% = 10 pts...take 10 off their score and we not only win but pretty much make the spread. It wasn't just that they had the extra 13 FTA...BUT... they were 13 FTA above their season average. Also, the 91 pts was 13 pts over their season average...you take off 10 pts and they are at a much more normal PPG ...within 3. So what does all this mean?...It means that this game was an outlier...a freak ...something out of the ordinary that allowed them to win...something that probably won't happen to them again this season. (68% extra FTAs) It means that the only way they could beat us would be for something weird or out of the ordinary to happen. And it did. Looking at the stats you would think that a stat outlier would be something like Mass shooting 75% from the arc or The Bills having 25 TOs. But no, tonight it was FTAs. Bottom line....Unless lightning strikes in the same spot (or they bring their own refs), we should win on Sunday.
  10. Now that we know Linssen is available ....now is the time to answer the question ...will that move the Prediction line?...There is a rust factor that the computer builds in... ie if you are out more than 2 weeks then you have rust....So the answer still remains no movement in the spread ...the model is expecting him to score 5 pts or less and 2 rebs or less...if he does more than that in both categories than that would be a needle mover.
  11. I ran it again today .using conservative numbers plus a possibility of Linssen returning ... may be a game time decision...and the spread still comes to 5. The X factor in this game will be the UMass 3P shooting... If they get hot, we could be in trouble, but if we can disrupt them like RI did we can win by double digits. Remember, they have no defense...we need to take advantage of that.
  12. Injury update...CJ Kelly will be available for tonight's game...This is not good news for The Bills. We will need to have the A+ arc defense along with great rebounding today... no second chances for them.
  13. https://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/college/article226427045.html About 600-800K...which puts him mid pack in the A-10...contract ends 22-23...but Dav says they will keep him as long as he wants to stay.
  14. To say of what is that it is not, or of what is not that it is, is false, while to say of what is that it is, and of what is not that it is not, is true. – Aristotle
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