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The Wiz

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  1. If the Bills played Day today in Brooklyn....it would be Day over the Bills by 8.' Of course you know , there would have been 1 more game before we played Day. St. B was favored by 4 over GM....Had St. B won by double digits and VCU won their game over UMass...then... VCU would have played Day.... and we would have played the Bonnies If Day beats VCU in a close game and we crush the Bonnies again by double digits... then the Day vs Bills game becomes close...Day would still be favored...but it would be close. Maybe this time the Day player misses in OT and we win... Sadly , we will never know.
  2. First, the computer did not know Jimerson and Thatch would be injured...But it does figure there will be injuries ...just as it does for other teams. When there are injuries there are new players who come in and pick up the slack ...sometimes it evens out and sometimes it doesn't . In the Bills case it did ...with more playing time for Hargrove and Perkins....to use the phrase from my original post...best case scenario ...this truly was the best case scenario...lose 2 key players and come in on target with a successful season...22-8. Second , this is not just a preliminary forecast...it is ongoing forecast using real data after the preseason round one prediction. I am amazed that on the preseason there was a 93% success rate. The only miss on that forecast was Dayton, who the computer had as a good team but not great....but again it was preseason...As soon as the computer saw just a few games ( 8 ) it immediately moved Dayton to an A.. Back to the Bills...it was kind of the same thing. The Bills started out as a B- team ...on the 8th game it moved them to a B and then from the 8th game on till the end we stayed at B. We were a B when Jimerson and Thatch played and we stayed at B after they were hurt. One last thing ...even though I show 3 rounds , those that read my posts know that it is ongoing process....I usually put the grade in every spread thread post. The 3 Rounds are just key points in the season to stop and take a temperature to see how we are doing vs the A-10...plus are we on track for post season. ...A- or higher usually means Dancing. After I make forecasts , I try to go over them and find what is right and what I missed. I critique it ...then tweak it. In the off season , I rework the model...this year the big change was 3 pt shooting ...3 P % down substantially. However as the season progressed, 3pt shooting improved. It changed the game a lot. Next year it will be down again ...but not as much. By the 21-22 season things should be stable enough to make the forecasts even more accurate. Glad you read and like my stuff. Looking forward to a great year for Team Blue.
  3. Here is a recap of the season....a little earlier than I expected to do it....but hopefully there are enough grades. stats and analysis to ease the pain of no more basketball till next season First let's start with my preseason comments...I forecasted based on 30 games ...no Maryville. Nov 3 2019 Best case scenario (everything goes right....Players develop, team gels early, the press works , we hit shots including foul shots and the board gets together for a blue kool-aid party..........we finish 22-8 and 14-4 in conf for a 2nd place finish...possible NCAA bid Here is how the season looks to play out....A good start leads to some early kool aid drinking and NCAA talk....then reality hits when we play Seton Hall....this leads to a downturn as play turns mixed going forward... at this point the board declares the season is over. Optimism rears its head again as conf play begins ...a weak Jan and the talk shifts to 20-21....but then we gel and have a good Feb which leads to sugar plum fairies and A-10 tourney championship talk...the board dreams of a a miracle repeat. Bottomline....All of the above scenarios are based on how the computer sees the game patterns playing out. Prepare for a roller coaster ride ...complete with some vicious blowouts with the Bills on both ends of those blowouts. Also some very close games....hair pulling games...games that will end in overtime...We win some of these games because of our superior depth and lose some because we can't buy a foul shot. This season will not be for the faint of heart. The pattern has been that no matter what we have in players and talent , Ford maximizes it by Feb. This year should be no different Enjoy the ride....Go Bills 3/13/ 20....I hit the forecast but was too optimistic in conf play...had we won another 2 games as forecast ...we would have finished 2nd and we would have had an NCAA bid. Next up are the 3 report card forecasts....from 3 different posts during the season...preseason, real data (after 8th games) and preconference (before the 1st conf game... dated Jan 1) Round 1 The Wiz's Preseason Forecast 2019-2020 By The Wiz, November 3 in Billikens.com Main Board A-10 Dav........................B+......... NCAA 35% or NIT 80% VCU.......................B+.......... NCAA 35% or NIT 80% Day..........................B............NIT 50% RI.............................B............NIT...50% St. B.........................B............NIT...50% Rich.........................B- SLU..........................B- Duq.........................C+ GM..........................C+ LaS.........................C UMass....................C GW...........................C- St. J..........................C- Ford...........................D Round 2 The Wiz's A-10 Forecast with Real Data By The Wiz, December 10 in Billikens.com Main Board .................................Overall......................Trending..................................................SOS.....................................................Curr record Day..............................A..................................A+.......................................................B...............NCAA....................................7-1 VCU..............................A-................................B+.......................................................D+............NCAA......................................7-2 Duq..............................B+...............................B+........................................................F..............NIT............................................8-0 Rich.............................B+................................A-.........................................................D+...........NIT...........................................8-1 SLU..............................B..................................A-.........................................................D..............67% NIT...................................8-1 Dav..............................B...................................B-........................................................A-..............67% NIT..................................4-5 RI..................................B................................B+..........................................................B+..............67% NIT.................................6-3 LaS...............................B-................................B...........................................................B+.............................................................5-3 GM...............................C+................................B+..........................................................F+...........................................................10-1 St. B.............................C+.................................B............................................................D+............................................................5-4 UMass.........................C...................................D+..........................................................C...............................................................5-5 Ford.............................D+.................................C-............................................................F-....easiest sched ITN...........................5-3 St. J.............................D+..................................F+.............................................................B.............................................................2-8 GW...............................D.....................................C.............................................................F..............................................................5-5 Round 3 .................................Overall......................Trending..................................................SOS.....................................................Curr record Day..............................A.................................A+..........................................................B-.......NCAA bid......................................11-2 VCU.............................B+...............................A-...........................................................C-....35% NCAA...85% NIT......................10-3 Dav...............................B+...............................B-..........................................................A-.......50% NIT..........................................6-6 SLU..............................B..................................A-.........................................................C-........15% NCAA...50% NIT....................11-2 RI.................................B..................................B+........................................................B+.........50% NIT.........................................8-3 Rich..............................B..................................B-........................................................C+........20%NIT..........................................10-3 Duq..............................B...................................C..........................................................F+......15% NIT.........................................10-2 St. B.............................B-..................................B-.........................................................C-.......10 % NIT..........................................8-5 GM...............................C+.................................B..........................................................F+.......10% NIT..........................................11-2 LaS...............................C+................................B...........................................................D-........10% NIT..........................................9-3 UMass..........................C..................................D+.........................................................B-...............................................................6-7 St. J..............................D+................................D+.........................................................B+..............................................................3-9 GW.................................D.................................C-...........................................................F-....14th easiest ITN...............................6-7 Ford...............................D.................................D-...........................................................F-...2nd easiest ITN...................................6-6 Teams with the greatest chance to exceed the variance on the upside SLU....the difference could mean an NCAA bid GM & LaS....the difference could mean an outside chance at an NIT bid GW....the difference could make them a spoiler Teams with the greatest chance to exceed on the downside Dav...the difference could knock them out of a decent chance to make the NIT Duq....the difference could wipe out their small chance to make the NIT UMass....the difference could turn a 500 season into a bad one Finally ...one last point...How could a team ( Fordham ) with the 2nd easiest schedule in D1 be only 6-6 at this point...quite an accomplishment...I guess that is why even though they are a D team they are still trending down . Bottom line ....Could be a promising year for The Bills if they continue to improve and play to their potential ( A- ) Go Bills. And finally ...The Final 3/13/20 Round 4...The Final ...........................Overall.......Trending.......Variance from the Final grade... Preseason.......8th game.......Preconference Day........................A+.................A+......................................................................+4.......................+1....................+1 Rich.......................B+..................A.........................................................................+2.......................0.....................+1 RI............................B+.................B+.......................................................................+1......................+1.....................+1 SLU.........................B...................A-.........................................................................+1.......................0.......................0 Dav.........................B....................B+.........................................................................-1........................0......................-1 VCU.......................B.....................C............................................................................-1.......................-2......................-1 Duq........................B-....................C+...........................................................................+1.....................-2.....................-2 St. B......................B-.......................C...........................................................................-1.....................+1......................0 GM........................C.......................C.............................................................................-1.....................-1.......................-1 LaS........................C.......................C..............................................................................0......................-2......................-1 UMass...................C.......................B-.............................................................................0.......................0........................0 Ford.......................D+.....................D+............................................................................+1......................0........................+1 GW..........................D+....................F+............................................................................-1.......................+1......................+1 St. J........................D.......................D-..............................................................................-2.......................-1.......................-2 Within 2 notches.............................................................................................................93%.....................100%..................100% Within 1 notch..................................................................................................................79%.......................79%....................86% The notches are a variance from the Final grade....as an example...SLU's preseason was a B- ...they finished overall as a B...therefore they were a +1....on the other hand...St. J started as a C- but finished as a D...therefore they got a -2.....a zero means you matched your final score at some point in the season. And of course, we finish with Team stat report card with Top 100 ITN ..............................SLU.........................SLU...... ..............................OFF..........................DEF............... PPG.........................C+...........................B+.............. FG%.........................B.............................A-............... 3Pt%........................C+...........................B.............. FT%.........................F-... WITN............................. Reb.........................A...............................B........ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse).......UP ....Def 3P%.....DOWN.....none Report card notes....A very nice defensive report card ...not bad for a team that started shaky on D.....Offense not bad either sans FTs...we needed 7 more FTM to climb out of the cellar. Bills Off Reb...A+...16th ITN.....unchanged Assts...Y Collins....37th.....up Rebs.....French..20th.......Goodwin...23rd....up and down...French wins the rebound battle by 2 extra rebs for the season This was a close battle all year. Off Reb....French ...28th...Goodwin...32nd...down and up Def reb......Goodwin.....35th ....French ...42nd.....up and up Stls......Goodwin...27th ...up Blks.....French....17th....up Dbl-Dbl.. Goodwin...19th and French 41st......down and up WWN2D..Stay healthy...and get ready for the best year since RM Bottom line...This wraps up the year for me... I will still be on the board from time to time...especially with baseball on hold. Be well all and start hoarding blue Kool-Aid for next season. 20-21 will be our year Go Bills
  4. I guess we'll never know. ...We would have been favored over the Bonnies too...and I was looking forward to another chance to beat Dayton...but again ...we will never know. Take things 1 day at a time....
  5. St. B is a B- team....trending at C GM is a C team ......trending at C St. B is the better team but recently is playing at the same level as GM....The trend line will keep the game closer than normal....but in the end the Bonnies should prevail. Looking like back to back Bonnies for the Bills.
  6. This performance doesn't change GM 's numbers much ...they beat a weak St. J team by about what they were supposed to. The Bonnies are the better team ....but have been trending weak lately ...which will make the spread close....but GM just doesn't have enough ....
  7. Ah...new meaning to March Madness.
  8. I will go with my Sunday forecast...GM over St. J by 5
  9. I realize BBer and you were were looking at best case scenarios ...I was just showing what the possibilities were. In your post besides the 2 wins , there is a good chance that 2 or 3 other games you picked could flip
  10. Ark ...A- team...trending at B Vandy...C+ team...trending at B You are correct ...Vandy has played better...recently about the same as Ark...but Ark is the better team ....Vandy is missing 3 players due to injury... and it's crunch time...I think Vandy will stay close for awhile....but 9 pts will be too much to overcome....
  11. Clem by 2 Or St by 1 Ariz by 6 Minn by 9 Ok St by 2 ND by 8 TCU by 1 UNC by 1 Well at least it was better than B Ber ...showing a couple of wins with some other close possibilities.
  12. NCSU by 5 Ind by 10 Ark by 9 Stan by 10 X by 11 Sorry no help....Root for Neb to shoot less than 58% from the FT line so we can get out of the cellar.
  13. Imagine St. B on Thur having to play GM or St. J...While they will be favored...it will not be an easy game for them...after St J/GM soften them up...they then have to play a rested team(The Bills) who just whupped them by 23 pts when St. B was rested. Maybe they will try to press us again ...that should be interesting from a team that will be tired. They will need a lot of motivation just to keep the game close. As for their fans...assuming they have to get to their seats by 1PM...they will have to leave at about 7AM and drive 350 miles to see the Bonnies play a team that just gave them a beat down....Their fans, too, will have to be very motivated. While there is no perfect situation in the A-10 tourney, I would say this is about as good as we could have hope for.
  14. The winner of this game will play St. B....The winner of the St. B game will play us on Fri. .................Overall...........Trending GM...............C......................C St. J..............D.......................D- We could be looking at back to back St. B
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