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The Wiz

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About The Wiz

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  1. On the the 350 question....there are 3 teams that are not full members of Div 1 (they are new)...N Ala....Cal Bap...& Merrimack.... they do count in the standings. As for the different standings on FTs....I think the discrepancy is a time factor between data services. ..I have 1 service that updates as soon as the game is complete....another service updates after the last game of the day and some update every few days. Sometimes my instant will be different than my daily....bottom line ...we are F- and not close to F no matter who you check with.....btw we finished at 352 last year with a 59.8% vs 53.5% this year....we've got a ways to go to match last year's mark.
  2. Good question....the edge goes to French to make the FT...UNLESS he starts to make a lot of FTs ...then the edge goes to the Bills to win.
  3. I can't explain the discrepancy....I have 2 sources that have the BIlls at 353....Team Rankings and Sports Direct...They have MVSU at 55.8% ...good for 351. And I am using 353 as a base ...when I mentioned battling for 352....The Bills are at 353 and Winthrop is at 352....thus The Bills are battling for 352.
  4. You are right.......the good news is that our FT shooting has improved recently...60.4% (last 3 games) vs 53.5% (overall)....we were down around 50%...so while I can't see the F yet....we are are at least battling Winthrop (53.9%) for spot 352.
  5. With The Bills currently the worst FT shooting team ITN and Aub with a D- at the foul line....it may be , who ever makes the first FT wins the game. Besides the tongue in cheek remark , I made here....I am editing this post to include the real info ...of the 10 pt spread...4 of those 10 come from FTs...so while maybe not the difference maker...it certainly is an important part of the spread...plus if it becomes a close game (within 6 ) anything can happen.
  6. Here is my take .... It will take a minimum of 24 wins.....assuming we lose to Aub and win against KSU and Bethune...we finish 10-2...No I didn't forget Mville...I don't count Div 2 because the NCAA doesn't count them...which means we need 14 wins ...if we go 12-6 that would be 10+ 12 =22 ...which means you need 2 A10 tourney wins to have a chance at a bid. One of the problems in making the calculation is ...you don't know how many at large bids there will be. If during the conf tourneys you start having upsets...ie Bost Coll wins the ACC torneyor Tex A&M wins the SEC tourney , this decreases the number of at large bids. In a "normal" year...24 wins gets you a 60% chance of getting in...a few upsets and you are below 50%. So for those that want to be doubly sure ...you can use 25 wins....Sometimes when there are few upsets , 23 will work....but in general I would use 24 as a minimum. I will let you all fool with the different combos to get to 24 or 25 wins. Bottom line...No matter how you do it ...it won't be easy....Just win...one game at a time.
  7. Yes.....please note the A grade by SDSt vs Aub which is an A+ team. Personally , I don't think any teams will go undefeated this year....It is a matter of when not if.
  8. The Bills over Liberty ( B ) by 1 on a neutral court San D St ( A ) over The Bills by 8 on a neutral court... Duq ( B+ ) over The Bills by 3 at Duq on Jan 2 And of course , I have already posted Aub The OSU over The Bills by 14 on a neutral court.
  9. Yes...a chance to make the NCAA or NIT If you have at least a C+ now (as 10 teams do)....then you have the potential to finish as high as B ...a 2/3 chance to make the NIT
  10. Hmmm....There is no preseason SOS because no games have been played. And you really can't freeze a team (s) in time and then project what things will be. It would be like freezing your life now and wanting to know what it would be like in April 2020 . Can't do it because you are part of it. We are headed to a quantum physics / Twilight Zone/ It's A Wonderful Life movie mashup. Sorry, not trying to be difficult, just trying to explain why it can't be done....SOS is a fleeting stat that is good only for that moment in time...since I wrote the post yesterday , the SOS has already changed. But what I can do is show you some year end SOS when the stat does become frozen and meaningful at that time....I think it will also answer some of your questions ...if not fully than partially.....if not, it should be interesting reading for Bills fans..... Year End.................A-10.........Bills SOS............W-L.............SLU overall grade 2012.......................A-................B+.....................25-8..................A+ 2013.......................B+...............B+.....................28-7..................A 2014.......................A-.................B.......................26-7..................A 2015.......................B+................B-.....................10-21.................D 2016.......................B+................B......................11-21.................D 2017.......................B..................B.......................12-21.................D 2018.......................B-.................B........................16-16................C+ 2019.......................B-.................B........................23-13.................B- 2020 (9-10 gms)....B..................D..........................8-1...................B So Clock, while I can't do the calculations you want , I think this shows you with a pretty good degree of certainty that at the end of the season we will be at a grade of B on SOS...and if we want to do a little Back to the Future... next year's SOS will be around a B also. Hope this clarifies things a bit.
  11. Tulane is part of our grade ....and our SOS is a D right now. Our SOS grade will go up after we play Auburn ( A+ ) and KSU ( B ) but will drop after we play Bethune (D- ). Can I predict our SOS at the end of the season? No ....because all SOS changes after every game....including the 9 games we have already played. All 353 teams SOS changes every day as long as games are played. For example , we just played Tulane ...They were a C when we played them.....They are now a C- . Most of the other 8 teams we have played have different grades too, right now. So it is not only the future games that are changing but the past ones are changing too. The reason I can't make the forecast of a season ending SOS is that it is a projection of a projection. I hope that explanation is clear. You mention , you thought our OOC would be better and mentioned 6 schools ...2 of which we haven't yet played. Unfortunately, you left off some of the anchors which are dragging us down...FGCU (1-10) currently F+ and Hi Pt (1-7) currently F. The D rated SOS is correct.....It is what it is ...and one could argue that it was done, at least partially, by design. While I can't give you the exact SOS at season's end ...it will go up not just because we play Aub & KSU but because we will play a lot of good teams in the A-10. As you can see from the above chart over half of the teams we play in the A-10 are B- or higher.... I am not concerned about SOS ...we just need to win as many games as possible and everything else will fall into place.
  12. With Duq finally playing its 8th game (last team in the A-10 to reach 8 ) this gives me enough data to make another forecast. In addition , I have included 2 other report cards. The 1st column , is the overall grade and can vary by 2 notches. For example, SLU with a grade of B ( 67% chance to make the NIT) can vary from A- (NCAA bid ) to C+ ( no bids ) by the end of the season. At the end of the OOC schedule ....I will forecast again ....this time the variance will only be 1 notch. Column 2 is the trending column. ...with most recent games weighted heavier than earlier games....shows how teams are doing now....good info on new, young, developing teams who may be growing as the season progresses....Finally , column 3 is the SOS....It is valuable at this point of the season because it shows how valid the overall grade is. For instance, Dayton's A looks pretty solid when coupled with its B SOS. While Duq's B+ is a bit suspect when coupled with it's F SOS....Doesn't mean they aren't a good team...just means , I need more data to verify....By the end of OOC there will be enough data to make a determination. .................................Overall......................Trending..................................................SOS.....................................................Curr record Day..............................A..................................A+.......................................................B...............NCAA....................................7-1 VCU..............................A-................................B+.......................................................D+............NCAA......................................7-2 Duq..............................B+...............................B+........................................................F..............NIT............................................8-0 Rich.............................B+................................A-.........................................................D+...........NIT...........................................8-1 SLU..............................B..................................A-.........................................................D..............67% NIT...................................8-1 Dav..............................B...................................B-........................................................A-..............67% NIT..................................4-5 RI..................................B................................B+..........................................................B+..............67% NIT.................................6-3 LaS...............................B-................................B...........................................................B+.............................................................5-3 GM...............................C+................................B+..........................................................F+...........................................................10-1 St. B.............................C+.................................B............................................................D+............................................................5-4 UMass.........................C...................................D+..........................................................C...............................................................5-5 Ford.............................D+.................................C-............................................................F-....easiest sched ITN...........................5-3 St. J.............................D+..................................F+.............................................................B.............................................................2-8 GW...............................D.....................................C.............................................................F..............................................................5-5 At least 10 of the 14 teams have a chance to make post season play (min C+ now ). In the B category....The Bills , Dav and RI ...2 teams should make it to NIT. I will do this again in 3 weeks ...by then, there will be a lot more data and things will be much clearer at that time. but in the meantime this is where we are now.....still in the promising phase.
  13. When playing an elite offense ....you can never have too much defense. Thatch would have been a big help in a game like this. To answer your question, I would definitely take a good defensive player over an offensive player when going against a team like Aub..... Auburn is like Belmont only better....It is an elite offense that doesn't really play much defense. Their attitude is we will let you do what you want to do on offense because in the end we will outscore you. We are 7th in the nation in scoring....go ahead and try to outscore us. When an elite offense runs into a good defense ...a defense that controls the game ...it throws them off when they can't score 86 pts. Our defense was good enough to throw Belmont out of sync. I am hoping we can step up and do the same to Auburn....but we need to control the game. Outlook......If Aub scores 80+ pts....we lose ...................If Aub scores 70-79...we have a chance to win ..................if Aub scores less than 70 .....we have a good chance to win This assumes we shoot decently ...see slash in the original post.
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