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Chaifetz Home Court Advantage


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Thanks for posting, that is interesting. Just thinking about it and doing no research I do feel like we have performed quite well at home the past handful of seasons. Out of curiosity, were there any other Atlantic 10 programs ranked highly in that metrics?

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38 minutes ago, TheChosenOne said:

Thanks for posting, that is interesting. Just thinking about it and doing no research I do feel like we have performed quite well at home the past handful of seasons. Out of curiosity, were there any other Atlantic 10 programs ranked highly in that metrics?

7 A10 teams in the top 100 of home court advantage. (6 out the 7 are between #50 and #94)

Next best A10 team is St. Bonaventure at #50

(based on last 60 home and road conf. games)

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How do they figure this out?

It seems to me the Billikens would be high because they play a lot of crap teams at home. 
 

A packed Fetz is awesome and I’m sure a tough venue to play in but the atmosphere on a Wednesday in November  against directional state U isn’t all that impressive. 

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We do well at home, as we should but I've always wanted a multi year home winning streak, one that got at least into the 30s.  Great teams pulls those off.

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13 minutes ago, dlarry said:

How do they figure this out?

It seems to me the Billikens would be high because they play a lot of crap teams at home. 
 

A packed Fetz is awesome and I’m sure a tough venue to play in but the atmosphere on a Wednesday in November  against directional state U isn’t all that impressive. 

Since it’s KenPom, I’m sure it’s adjusted to account for opponent strength

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1 hour ago, dlarry said:

How do they figure this out?

It seems to me the Billikens would be high because they play a lot of crap teams at home. 
 

A packed Fetz is awesome and I’m sure a tough venue to play in but the atmosphere on a Wednesday in November  against directional state U isn’t all that impressive. 

those directional folks are a lot of pointy headed nerds. but we need OCC W's so fire up the home grill come November!

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I can't speak to what KenPom does but I can tell you what I do to figure  home field advantage.

I compare The Bill's home scoring margin (the average points they win or lose by) to their scoring margins on the road since 2008 when we started playing at Chaifetz. The difference between the home and away numbers are the "real" home court advantage....the number of points the Bills are better at home than on a neutral court.  I use only A10 games. This way I can compare similar SOS for home vs away.

This doesn't tell you which are the toughest courts to play on or about crowd size or enthusiasm. It tells me how much better the Bills play at home compared to the road.

So with that said...I show the Bills at 81st in home field advantage which is a pretty nice ranking.  One of the the things that keeps our ranking a little lower is that we play pretty well on the road.  In other words, teams that play well on the road don't have as big of an advantage as a team that plays poorly on the road. Their  (the poor away teams) spread  (their home court advantage)  is much larger because they play poorly on the road. I personally would rather have a team that plays well at home and away even if it meant a worse home  court ranking.

I don't look at home court rankings...I look to see how well we play on the road.  Do well on the road and the Fetz will take care of itself.

 

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From the little research I've read on empirical studies of home court advantage in basketball it would be a function of how well the crowd can influence the refs.  I doubt anyone has really measured that.

Other ways of calculating it would rely on suspect assumptions of how the results would turn out compared to reality.

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4 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

We'e a very good home team in conference.  If we could manage to finish above 500 on the road, we'd be in the dance practically every year.

I agree ...we need to finish above .500 on the road every year...As I mentioned in the post above , we have had a good team on the road over the years.  Last year , even with the loss of Perkins , we managed to finish 9-7 and 4 of those losses were by 6 pts or less. (not to mention 3 losses at home by 5 pts or less ..Bel, UAB and St. B...Do you think we could have won a few of those 7 games with Perkins playing this past year?...I do.

Getting back to the topic of away games...Barring a loss of key players ,  I don't see why we can't finish with 10+ victories away from the Fetz in the coming year.

Bottom line...While we still have 1 more  card to turn over and we will need some time to gel....There are enough cards showing  on the table to at least take the Dancing shoes out of the box.

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On 6/18/2022 at 5:06 PM, The Wiz said:

I can't speak to what KenPom does but I can tell you what I do to figure  home field advantage.

I compare The Bill's home scoring margin (the average points they win or lose by) to their scoring margins on the road since 2008 when we started playing at Chaifetz. The difference between the home and away numbers are the "real" home court advantage....the number of points the Bills are better at home than on a neutral court.  I use only A10 games. This way I can compare similar SOS for home vs away.

This doesn't tell you which are the toughest courts to play on or about crowd size or enthusiasm. It tells me how much better the Bills play at home compared to the road.

So with that said...I show the Bills at 81st in home field advantage which is a pretty nice ranking.  One of the the things that keeps our ranking a little lower is that we play pretty well on the road.  In other words, teams that play well on the road don't have as big of an advantage as a team that plays poorly on the road. Their  (the poor away teams) spread  (their home court advantage)  is much larger because they play poorly on the road. I personally would rather have a team that plays well at home and away even if it meant a worse home  court ranking.

I don't look at home court rankings...I look to see how well we play on the road.  Do well on the road and the Fetz will take care of itself.

 

-interesting, thank you

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On 6/18/2022 at 5:06 PM, The Wiz said:

I can't speak to what KenPom does but I can tell you what I do to figure  home field advantage.

I compare The Bill's home scoring margin (the average points they win or lose by) to their scoring margins on the road since 2008 when we started playing at Chaifetz. The difference between the home and away numbers are the "real" home court advantage....the number of points the Bills are better at home than on a neutral court.  I use only A10 games. This way I can compare similar SOS for home vs away.

This doesn't tell you which are the toughest courts to play on or about crowd size or enthusiasm. It tells me how much better the Bills play at home compared to the road.

So with that said...I show the Bills at 81st in home field advantage which is a pretty nice ranking.  One of the the things that keeps our ranking a little lower is that we play pretty well on the road.  In other words, teams that play well on the road don't have as big of an advantage as a team that plays poorly on the road. Their  (the poor away teams) spread  (their home court advantage)  is much larger because they play poorly on the road. I personally would rather have a team that plays well at home and away even if it meant a worse home  court ranking.

I don't look at home court rankings...I look to see how well we play on the road.  Do well on the road and the Fetz will take care of itself.

 

I wonder if Kenpom uses results from similar teams playing in different arenas.  For instance, how does VCU do on the road against SLU compared to on the road versus Dayton, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, or Rhode Island.  If you use conference info, I would think that you can compare a teams road performances in several similar places over the years and develop a ranking that way.  What do you think?

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On 6/18/2022 at 10:56 AM, SLUMedBilliken15 said:

7 A10 teams in the top 100 of home court advantage. (6 out the 7 are between #50 and #94)

Next best A10 team is St. Bonaventure at #50

(based on last 60 home and road conf. games)

Don't get me wrong, I think Chaifetz is a great arena & a great place to play.  When it is packed & rocking, it is fantastic.  That being said, I have a conspiracy theory that SLU's home court advantage is overstated by KenPom because it is based on conference games only.  Since we get royally screwed on the road regularly during A10 play, it appears as though our HCA advantage is good.  However, it is really more that we have a disadvantage on the road moreso than an advantage at home.  No idea if there is an effective way to test this with stats and even if there was I'd imagine it would be far from conclusive.

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-there are some things the ADept could do to improve our home court advantage, such as lower ticket prices in the upper bowl to fill them ($25 for an upper end ticket to Central Arkansas is stealing imo), lower the price of beer so more folks are lubed-up to get loud (I realize the ADept doesn't set concession prices) , have the softball/baseball teams throw and the tennis team hit the give-away balls so the folks in the first few rows are not having to fix their glasses or calm their children after being donked by a "throw" from a spirit squad member, show replays of close plays so all (including those with the lube) can express their opinion as to how the call should go or should have gone, continue to get Deandre (I think that is his name) involved and replace Gus

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4 minutes ago, Cowboy II said:

have the softball/baseball teams throw and the tennis team hit the give-away balls so the folks in the first few rows are not having to fix their glasses or calm their children after being donked by a "throw" from a spirit squad member

SLU used to have some spirit squad members come out of the tunnels & throw give-away balls from there rather than from the floor so that fans seated in the upper bowl had a chance at catching one.  I don't think they've done that recently, but should 100% return to doing that.  I'd imagine season ticket holders in the first few rows have enough of those things to fill a swimming pool by now whereas throws from floor never come close to fans in the upper bowl.

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3 hours ago, cgeldmacher said:

I wonder if Kenpom uses results from similar teams playing in different arenas.  For instance, how does VCU do on the road against SLU compared to on the road versus Dayton, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, or Rhode Island.  If you use conference info, I would think that you can compare a teams road performances in several similar places over the years and develop a ranking that way.  What do you think?

That is kind of what I do...As I pointed out above, the main variable is home vs away in the A-10....The simplified version would be ...you beat VCU by 2 away...then you beat them by 6 at the Fetz..the true home court advantage is 4...(6+2) / 2 = 4...of course this is super simplified. Closer to reality is to take 14 years of SLU /VCU games home & away...then adding in lesser factors such as all the other A-10 games SLU has played  home and away over 14 years.  For OOC games , if there is not enough data to create a margin , then I will use other A-10 teams data against OOC teams we are playing.  It is all about interconnectivity in a closed system ( 358 teams) with changing data.  It is why after the first 8 games , I have enough data to make fairly accurate forecasts...think 6 degrees of Kevin Bacon.

Again , I want to emphasize that having a good home court advantage doesn't make you a super team.  The best team in the A-10 over the years is GW followed by Dayton and then SLU.  GW may seem like a surprise to some here (except maybe @SluSignGuy)but the reason they have the best home court advantage is not because there is something magical about the Smith Center but it is because they are a bad team on the road and have been for a number of years. When they finally come home and play average their home court advantage becomes big. 

The Bills are a good away team . Even when they don't win they are close many times. That good away data leads to a smaller home advantage...though 3rd in the A-10 is still excellent. And the raw numbers show that The Bills are a formidable team at home.

Bottom line....Looking good so far for this year. Check back in 4 1/2 months for an update.

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19 hours ago, The Wiz said:

That is kind of what I do...As I pointed out above, the main variable is home vs away in the A-10....The simplified version would be ...you beat VCU by 2 away...then you beat them by 6 at the Fetz..the true home court advantage is 4...(6+2) / 2 = 4...of course this is super simplified. Closer to reality is to take 14 years of SLU /VCU games home & away...then adding in lesser factors such as all the other A-10 games SLU has played  home and away over 14 years.  For OOC games , if there is not enough data to create a margin , then I will use other A-10 teams data against OOC teams we are playing.  It is all about interconnectivity in a closed system ( 358 teams) with changing data.  It is why after the first 8 games , I have enough data to make fairly accurate forecasts...think 6 degrees of Kevin Bacon.

Again , I want to emphasize that having a good home court advantage doesn't make you a super team.  The best team in the A-10 over the years is GW followed by Dayton and then SLU.  GW may seem like a surprise to some here (except maybe @SluSignGuy)but the reason they have the best home court advantage is not because there is something magical about the Smith Center but it is because they are a bad team on the road and have been for a number of years. When they finally come home and play average their home court advantage becomes big. 

The Bills are a good away team . Even when they don't win they are close many times. That good away data leads to a smaller home advantage...though 3rd in the A-10 is still excellent. And the raw numbers show that The Bills are a formidable team at home.

Bottom line....Looking good so far for this year. Check back in 4 1/2 months for an update.

But that's my issue.  If you look at what you do at home compared to what you do on the road vs. the same team, then how bad a team is on the road or at home skews the numbers.  If you destroy at team by 30 at on the road, because they are, for whatever reason, terrible at home, and then you beat the same team on your home court by 15, that shouldn't translate into the idea that you are not as good of a home team.  I think that, instead, evaluators should look at what teams normally do on the road compared to how they did on the road when they came to your place.  Seems more like comparing apples to apples to do it that way.

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21 hours ago, cgeldmacher said:

But that's my issue.  If you look at what you do at home compared to what you do on the road vs. the same team, then how bad a team is on the road or at home skews the numbers.  If you destroy at team by 30 at on the road, because they are, for whatever reason, terrible at home, and then you beat the same team on your home court by 15, that shouldn't translate into the idea that you are not as good of a home team.  I think that, instead, evaluators should look at what teams normally do on the road compared to how they did on the road when they came to your place.  Seems more like comparing apples to apples to do it that way.

If you look at just 2 games then it doesn't make sense...small sample sizes rarely work ...but if you take 14 years worth of A-10 games it becomes more meaningful. And of course the system is weighted...ie after  a 10 pt spread the margin value starts to decline. ...so the 30  pt road win (outlier) is not as big of an advantage particularly if put it into a pool of hundreds of home and away  A10 games.

Finally, if you win every road game by a bigger margin than your home games  ...you have NO home court advantage... under any system.

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