Old guy

Very nice game, we kept CM below their expected score, and went a good deal over our expected score. Beat the spread by a good margin. Very nicely done. I am starting to think we can indeed beat VCU and Dayton. Very nice game we will see tomorrow how much our ranking improved. As far as stats go, we beat them in almost all categories and limited our TOs to 4. Very nice.

And we will see the results of his method in due time. I think we will be happy with Schertz's methods.

If you want to get to probabilities of going to the NCAAT, this is what Team Rankings system is saying at this time: VCU 70.2% ranking 43 SLU 40.4% ranking 45 Dayton 40.3% ranking 69 It is easy to see that ranking has no direct relationship with probability to go to NCAAT. TR ranking for GW is 57, probability to go to NCAAT is 31.6%. These are TR's estimates which are not, and should not be expected to be, equal to the Wiz's system or any other system's results. We will find out in time, and of course, we will have to be able to beat VCU and Dayton in our way to NCAAT, which has yet to be seen.

@The Wiz Very interesting stuff. I think assuming that we keep on progressing and improving the way we have so far, that we have only two teams in A10 that will be very difficult for us to beat, Dayton and VCU. We will see. SLU currently rank 45 by TR VCU has, so far has won 5 games (Wagner, St. Peters, Coppin St, S Florida, and VA Tech), and lost 3 games (Utah St., NC St., and Vanderbilt). VCU is currently rank 43 by TR. Dayton has, so far won 7 games (Canisius, UMBC, Bethune, Marquette, NC Central, Georgetown, and E Tennessee St), and lost 2 games (Cincinnati, and BYU) Dayton currently rank 69 by TR. Honestly I think that what really counts is the ability to win games way above the spread in the OOC. I think we are doing well. I also think that our most difficult opponents during conference play will be VCU and Dayton. Until we show we can beat them, I think it may be a bit premature to talk about the Dance.

@cgeldmacher You know, there are things we can do and there are things we have absolutely no control over. We really can improve the way we play and our position within the league and within D1. However, we have no control over the way other schools in A10 play. If the A10 is among the leagues fated to get screwed by the Committee, then that is the way it will be and we can do nothing about it. If that is the case, then at least we should feel proud about the way we played this season, I think we will.

After last night's victory over LMU Team Rankings has SLU at an overall 46 ranking, close to VCU at 43, and over Dayton at 71. This is very good for SLU. If we keep this ranking we may get enough attention to get an at large spot at the Dance.

Let's not get taken over by sweet 16 dreams. I watched the game between Dayton and BYU and Dayton will be a very hard team to beat. I have yet to see VCU play, but it will also it also will probably be a very tough opponent. Anyway you look at it, I cannot see A10 getting more than 2 slots at the Dance. We need to have enough steam to run the race and end #2 in A10 to have a chance for an at large invite to the Dance. I personally think we can do it this year, but I also think it is to early to feel the glow of certainty.

We won by 21 points, over the spread by about 14 points. We did crunch them, this was a game we were supposed to win by a lot less. Well done guys. Go Bills, do it again the next game.

Looking good in the first half, doing better than we all expected. Assuming this level of play continues we will crunch them. Go Bills!

From my point of view, that is just not correct. When you have different systems basing their decisions on different sources of information and coming very close in their spread calculations, you have a high probability that what they say is correct. What you need to do is to learn how to interpret what they are saying. In this case, as I mentioned before, anyone can win but SLU is likely to have some advantage. What you cannot do with predictive systems is to take what they say as invariably correct. Ken Pom is not better than the Wiz or Team Rankings. If you like Ken Pom better than the others then use it, but know how to interpret what they say by comparing it to other systems. By the way, as the season progresses the differences between the systems' predictions will become narrower.

Cowboy, every single predictive system for sports produces different estimated spreads before a game. The Wiz's system has this game spread at 5, Team Rankings has this game's spread at 6. Ken Pom (which I do not use) is, of course different. Team Rankings provides 8 stats on offensive (SLU is higher than LM in 7) and 7 stats on defense (SLU is higher than LM in 4). Therefore, according to Team Rankings SLU is preferred to win. However, as per Team Rankings the level of confidence for a win by SLU is 3 stars out of 5. What all of this means is that SLU will have to play a good game and use all its advantages to win this one. This is exactly what the 2 pt spread by the Wiz's and Team Rankings' systems are saying: ANYONE CAN WIN THIS GAME, although SLU has some degree of advantage to win it. You cannot one system for sports predictions to any other system directly. Low spreads mean this game is not likely to be a cake walk.

@The Wiz In statics and dynamics, standard courses in Mech Engineering and advanced physics, there is a well known problem about a collision between an object going at such a high speed and with such a high mass and momentum that it cannot be stopped (an irresistible object), and a stationary object with such a high mass and strong composition that it cannot be moved (an immovable object). This occurs out in space and the problem is to analyze what happens to these objects after the impact takes place. Are we indeed an irresistible object and SC an immovable object? I may have exaggerated some with my comparison. However, with our weak OOC schedule we may have a chance of creating a level of recognition for SLU that might be useful to get an at large spot. Towards the end of the season, even a team with a major win way over the spread, may not gain much in terms term of ranking. I think your philosophy should emphasize consistent winning way over the spread is a more effective method of improving your team's ranking early in the season. I do completely agree with you that winning must be the primary aim overall. However, not wasting your lead in the final minutes of the game is also very important particularly early in the season.

Go Jordan, you can do it, broken nose or not.

@SantaClaraFan Thanks for the information. Team Ranking's stats for this season gives SLU a better offense and SC a better defense. The final spread is yet to be fixed, however it appears it may be a very low spread. I think a win by a low score over the spread will be rather meaningless for either team. For a good result in terms of a ranking change, the winning team will need to win by a large score over the spread. This brings me back to my college years pondering what might happen when an irresistible object hits an immovable object. Is SC capable of stopping SLU's offense or is SLU capable of penetrating SC's defense? We will find out won't we.

Of course, a spread of 2 pts means that either team can win this game. I think the key to this game will be to aim at a win for at least 22 pts. That would be a very good goal for this game,