The Bills over LaS by 10

[The Wiz]

Chance 2 Dance

The Bills......62% ...up 4 pts 

Day..............45%.....dn  6 pts

Only teams that have at least a 40% chance to get a bid are listed.

And then there were 2.   So what is my best prediction so far this year?  It is that all the other computer models, team forecasters , bracketologists and prognosticators would catch up with me. They aren't quite there yet, but I can see them now in my rearview mirror.  They are all starting to realize what I have been saying for many weeks.  The Bills are not only a  good team but the best in the A-10.   So why has it taken them all so long to figure this out?  Hmm...maybe they are using the wrong numbers.  In any case , this game was a statement...we have arrived....don't mess with us.  The Billiken Jet shoots down the Dayton crop duster or is that crap duster.  There is still a long way to go....62% is not a lock.  But, we are in the driver's seat now....read that as ...we are still in the driver's seat.

And now it is onto LaS.  While LaS isn't the A-10 bottom feeder,  they are a PIG team.  But here is a word of caution.  They are a C- team that just beat GM.  If we let up or take them lightly, they are just good enough to beat us. Play Billiken ball and that won't happen.

Let's see what we are dealing with on the report card....

 

...................SLU.....................LaS..........................SLU.........................LaS

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A........................C-.............................C+............................D-

FG%...............B.......................D-.............................B+............................C-

3P%..............B+......................D+.............................B..............................F

FT%...............A+ 13th ITN......D+...............................................................

Reb...............A.........................A-.............................B+............................C

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Off...none....Def.....none

Down....Off...none.....Def...none

Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN

FTM/gm....The Bills...8th...up

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st... unch

Stls......Collins....20th....dn

FT%...Jimerson...66th...up....Jimerson hasn't taken any shots and is moving up

PPG...Jimerson...90th...dn

Dou-Dou....Collins...39th...dn

FG%....Okoro....64th...up

Off Reb...Okoro...59th...dn

FTA/FGA....Linssen...32nd...up

Asst/TO ratio...Jones...62nd...dn

LaS

Blks...Moore...24th

Dou Dou...Moore...87th

An oddity on the report card....No categories on offense or defense went up or down this report. Consistency which is ok as long as you are playing good ball.

Injury/ Illness

none

Keys to the game.....LaS goes 8 deep...7 of those are guards.   They handle the ball a lot and  are subject to TOs, make them pay....Their weakness is defending the 3...we need to make shots from the arc.  Another poor shooting FT team.

WWN2D2W...47/37/78...numbers are up a little bit,  we should be able to meet or exceed these.  We need to hold our TOs to  11...we have been averaging an excellent 10/gm recently. The Bills need to force them into an extra 3 TOs.  Also need to have an extra 3+Rebs....Hold the top 3 scorers to 27 pts. Clark is their FT shooter...keep his FTA down.  Brickus is their 3P guy...hold him to two 3PM.   Moore will be defending the basket ...only 1 blk for him.

Bottom line... The focus and energy that I have talked about in the last few weeks has turned into a Will to Win...as long as we hold onto that feeling , we will go far.  It is time for the Bills to Explore the Land of Double Digit wins.

[Gremio14]

Thanks for the analysis!  Always much appreciated.  I would only add LaSalle beat an X-Oduro GM team.  He hurt his left knee against SLU…wrapping it on the bench and slightly hobbled in the second half…uncertain as to when he will return.

[BuiltFordBills]

13 minutes ago, Gremio14 said:

Thanks for the analysis!  Always much appreciated.  I would only add LaSalle beat an X-Oduro GM team.  He hurt his left knee against SLU…wrapping it on the bench and slightly hobbled in the second half…uncertain as to when he will return.

He was actually out because of concussion protocol for the Lasalle game. Don’t remember a head injury in the SLU game but could’ve been from practice. 

[CBFan]

All games are dangerous look at Saturday’s results, MO beats A & M, Belmont had to win with a desperation 3 point shot for a tie against a 5 win team, Auburn barely gets by Georgia.

Play every game like they are playing Dayton and win the A10.

[A10Ref]

9 minutes ago, CBFan said:

All games are dangerous look at Saturday’s results, MO beats A & M, Belmont had to win with a desperation 3 point shot for a tie against a 5 win team, Auburn barely gets by Georgia.

Play every game like they are playing Dayton and win the A10.

This… win-out to control your destiny. Every. Single. Game. Matters. 

[Old guy]

Excellent play analysis as usual. This is what makes your model better than everyone else's. We should win LaS both times we play them, but we have to keep the pressure on them. Agree A10 Ref, every single game from here on matters. We have to distance ourselves from the pack.

[Taj79]

HUGE trap game for us.  Need to impose our will and not slack off.  No atmosphere at Gola.  Inferior opponent.  No rivalry.  La Salle coming off nice win.  I think 10 is too high.

[someoneelse]

Davidson gets a lot of love in the rankings, 19-3, 9-1. Toughest remaining games are hosting the Bills on 2/19 and going to George Mason on 3/2 to Dayton on 3/5. They have a win over Alabama, splitting vs VCU. 
 

Do your numbers see their luck running out? I just don’t understand the discrepancy between the two valuations. 

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, someoneelse said:

Davidson gets a lot of love in the rankings, 19-3, 9-1. Toughest remaining games are hosting the Bills on 2/19 and going to George Mason on 3/2 to Dayton on 3/5. They have a win over Alabama, splitting vs VCU. 
 

Do your numbers see their luck running out? I just don’t understand the discrepancy between the two valuations. 

Yes, I do see their luck running out.   My model is more than just wins. It also looks behind the numbers  to see how the team is doing. Let's look at a few examples...

1...Wins and losses...Dav has a great record. And maybe if they can get into the "twightlight zone" of the selection committee they will reward them with a bid...maybe...unless they have a very deserving B12 or ACC team that was "damaged" by the miscalculating NET.  Then again there are a number of teams with good records...Let's look at Norfolk St., a team with a good record...15-5 and yes they will be Dancing because they will probably take the auto bid  from the Mighty MEAC  (worst D1 conf.).  Well suppose they miss the auto bid...maybe the committee will take care of them.  You say no...they are a 1 bid conf...right now the A-10 is a 1 bid conf...When I ring up Norfolk to find an equivalent team I get Fordham...nobody here will say Fham is a dancing team...Bottom line ...Look past the record

2 ...Which brings me to the next point ...358 teams...On the previous point you will say ...yeah but Dav is better than Nor St. and that would be true, which is why we don't just look at the record.  The computer looks at all 358 teams.  So I punch in B12  conf  and ask how many teams are ahead of Dav...answer ...all 10 of them...Now we know as slanted as the NCAA is, they won't take all 10...but if the committee is  looking at a 2nd A-10 bid vs an 8th B12 bid...well don't bet the mortgage on Dav.  Maybe that was a freak . Let's try B10...how many teams are better than Dav...only 11 of the 14...you see the issue here and if you don't the computer does and reduces everybody in the A-10 except SLU and Day to below 40% ..and Day is looking shaky ...which means that 2nd A-10  bid is looking shaky.

3... Yeah , but what about Dav...you can't even list them at 40%?.....Not now..... Why not? ...they are good, aren't they? ..Dav  has one of the best offenses in the country...great A+ shooting....At this point, the computer  doesn't think that will be enough to carry them all the way.  Look at the Bills...we have a good offense too but if something goes wrong we have other ways to win....Dav not so much...Their D is a bit suspect....They have had some losses they shouldn't have had and some easy wins that turned into close calls. Can they pop back up ?...Yes , especially if their shooting gets and stays hot. But for now the computer doesn't like what it sees.

I hope that answers your question. The point of this post was not  to slam Dav but to show some of the methodology that goes into the computer's thinking. You may not agree with it or the  the results and that's fine.  But I think it is as accurate as anything out there now and better than most. The only flaw  is that it has to put  up with me.

[Old guy]

Really good stuff Wiz, play analysis does the trick, but is this all? Take Harvard admissions, who gets in? Harvard has enough applicants with perfect SAT or ACT scores to fill the whole class. Who do they take in?

Take the teams going to the Dance, after all the conference winners go in and the true great teams go in, who else should go in? The power leagues have plenty of teams that are better than those in other leagues, they can fill all the available spots. Who do they choose? Or, in a more accurate NCAA slang, how do they fix the miscalculations of the  NET system?

What makes a kid with his/her perfect scores, or even some of those without perfect scores, gain acceptance to Harvard? What makes a team not in the power leagues, who did not win their league tournament, get invited to the Dance? Please, let's not talk about SAT/ACT or NET scores in this regard, they may take you through the initial stages of the process but not all the way in.

I think that at some point in the process they look at things that make a candidate or a team unique, or special in some way.

[someoneelse]

2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Yes, I do see their luck running out.   My model is more than just wins. It also looks behind the numbers  to see how the team is doing. Let's look at a few examples...

1...Wins and losses...Dav has a great record. And maybe if they can get into the "twightlight zone" of the selection committee they will reward them with a bid...maybe...unless they have a very deserving B12 or ACC team that was "damaged" by the miscalculating NET.  Then again there are a number of teams with good records...Let's look at Norfolk St., a team with a good record...15-5 and yes they will be Dancing because they will probably take the auto bid  from the Mighty MEAC  (worst D1 conf.).  Well suppose they miss the auto bid...maybe the committee will take care of them.  You say no...they are a 1 bid conf...right now the A-10 is a 1 bid conf...When I ring up Norfolk to find an equivalent team I get Fordham...nobody here will say Fham is a dancing team...Bottom line ...Look past the record

2 ...Which brings me to the next point ...358 teams...On the previous point you will say ...yeah but Dav is better than Nor St. and that would be true, which is why we don't just look at the record.  The computer looks at all 358 teams.  So I punch in B12  conf  and ask how many teams are ahead of Dav...answer ...all 10 of them...Now we know as slanted as the NCAA is, they won't take all 10...but if the committee is  looking at a 2nd A-10 bid vs an 8th B12 bid...well don't bet the mortgage on Dav.  Maybe that was a freak . Let's try B10...how many teams are better than Dav...only 11 of the 14...you see the issue here and if you don't the computer does and reduces everybody in the A-10 except SLU and Day to below 40% ..and Day is looking shaky ...which means that 2nd A-10  bid is looking shaky.

3... Yeah , but what about Dav...you can't even list them at 40%?.....Not now..... Why not? ...they are good, aren't they? ..Dav  has one of the best offenses in the country...great A+ shooting....At this point, the computer  doesn't think that will be enough to carry them all the way.  Look at the Bills...we have a good offense too but if something goes wrong we have other ways to win....Dav not so much...Their D is a bit suspect....They have had some losses they shouldn't have had and some easy wins that turned into close calls. Can they pop back up ?...Yes , especially if their shooting gets and stays hot. But for now the computer doesn't like what it sees.

I hope that answers your question. The point of this post was not  to slam Dav but to show some of the methodology that goes into the computer's thinking. You may not agree with it or the  the results and that's fine.  But I think it is as accurate as anything out there now and better than most. The only flaw  is that it has to put  up with me.

It does answer my question. Thank you. I don’t have the analytical tools that you. I see a team that beats (most of) the teams on its schedule, enough of the time that a single loss to a PIG opponent would be sloughed off as an off night occurrence.
 

They are running out of games vs quality and non-quality opponents to show their true colors, which means maybe their true colors are pretty good. They live up to the mantra ‘Just Win Baby’.
 

I’m not smart enough to dispute your math, just mystified at the discrepancy. 

[Taj79]

La Salle cannot ve taken lightly.  Remember last year?  La Salle finish 9 and 16 and 6 and 11 in the A10 but beat us at their place 82 to 75.  This is essentially the same team minus Sherrif Kenney and David Beatty with Beatty replace by former Louisville Cardinal Josh Nickelberry.  Kenney scored 17, Beatty 22.  

Currently, La Salle is 7 and 13 oiverall and 2 and 8 in the A10.  Put into words, they 13th out of 14 teams.  Only Duquesne is worse.  They were going seven deep until they moved 6'9" senior Mamadou Doucoure into the starting lineup.  He's a grad transfer from Rutgers.  He provides very little to date.  Clifton Moore, their 6'9" center provides a little over 12 a game, ditto Nickelberry.  Jack Clark is just under 12 per game.  The other starter is Brickus, at PG.  Main subs are Christian Ray, Anwar Gill and Khalil Brantley.  All are guards except Moore and Doucoure.  Matt McFarlane, a 6'10" transfer from Wichita State is also on the roster and coudl get some time but having two bigs isn't necessarily needed against us.  

Clark, Brickus and Nickelberry concern me given their shooting from three.  Nickelberry and Brickus are near 40%.  Briuckus is the type of Philly guard that will want to do more against Collins because of Collins rep.  But he can be foul prone.  That would be nice.

La Salle's best win in the OOC is non-existent.  They play a dred-schedule against the likes of Army, Albany, Rider, FDU and Penn.  Their two A10 wins are at St. Joe's and home agaionst Mason (without Oduro).  The Gola Mausoleum adds no atmosphere and this is a game after major foe Dayton and between a home-and-home with the Bonnies.  This is a game where we must not slip up.  We have nine A10 games to go and we play not only the Bonnies twice, but go to Richmond, go to Davidson, go to Rhode Island and close with VCU.  If we can defend the home fires, and get three on the road, we'd finish 13 and 5 which I believe will be good for a top four finish.

[Bay Area Billiken]

Agree- Do not look past LaSalle.  This game looks like a potential trap.  LaSalle is 7-13, 2-8, but has played a lot of close games, and is 0-3 in OT.

Although SLU is 19-10 all-time vs. LaSalle, SLU is 6-6 at the Gola Upstairs Mausoleum, above the Gola Downstairs Aquatic Center, and has lost 4 of its last 6 there.  I've never been there, but it looks and sounds like an odd place, with those protruding walls angling upward at both ends.  

Sagarin has SLU by 11 in his overall ratings, SLU by 12 in Recent Ratings.   Haslasmetrics has the score at SLU 76 LaSalle 65, thus also has SLU by 11.

SLU's Ratings:  NET 53, Pomeroy 50, Sagarin 44, ESPN BPI 41, Haslametrics 48, RPI 50, Massey 50.  The average of those 7 is 48.  Unfortunately, SLU's worst rating of the 7 is the one used by the NCAA Committee, the NET.  A NET of 53 would have SLU as the 3rd team OUT, but certainly trending in the right direction, into striking range of the Promised Land (NCAA Tournament).  Keep winning and the NET will keep improving.

The A10 is 9th in Conference NET, one slot ahead of the #10 WCC, which is expecting to get 4 NCAA teams.

[HoosierPal]

I always laugh when anyone says, don't look past this opponent.  

Give me the list of opponents we can look past?  Okay, besides Harris Stowe.

[Billikenbooster]

I'm goin'.  Flying out tomorrow morning, wife's family is picking me up, putting me up, then taking me back to the airport.  I guess I'm just filled with the Blue Kool Aid...sorry.  Just realized yesterday morning I had not shaved for our past three wins, so I'm starting a Billiken Beard.  Just like the NHL playoffs.  Letting it grow til we are out!  Wife is aghast, it's her birthday tomorrow...any suggestions?

mhg

[dlarry]

7 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

I always laugh when anyone says, don't look past this opponent.  

Give me the list of opponents we can look past?  Okay, besides Harris Stowe.

Yet every year it seems they look past some opponents and it leads to horrible losses.

[AnkielBreakers]

10 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

I always laugh when anyone says, don't look past this opponent.  

Give me the list of opponents we can look past?  Okay, besides Harris Stowe.

Early in the season, you can’t look past Harris Stowe. We all practice games speech on the board. Because of superstition. No one wants to feel responsible for a loss.

Moral: Don’t look past La Salle.

[billiken_roy]

9 minutes ago, Billikenbooster said:

I'm goin'.  Flying out tomorrow morning, wife's family is picking me up, putting me up, then taking me back to the airport.  I guess I'm just filled with the Blue Kool Aid...sorry.  Just realized yesterday morning I had not shaved for our past three wins, so I'm starting a Billiken Beard.  Just like the NHL playoffs.  Letting it grow til we are out!  Wife is aghast, it's her birthday tomorrow...any suggestions?

mhg

as someone who has never not shaved...............i cant think of a thing.   i'm on her side.  

[HoosierPal]

I trust that the coaching staff puts due emphasis on every game.

[MusicCityBilliken]

This is a setup for the perfect trap game.

Recall when RM took the team to Anaheim and we beat Boston College, Oklahoma and Nova. Then we had to get that extra game across town with Loyola-Marymount.

We can't afford to look past anyone now that we in mid-February.

[HoosierPal]

I think we can look past St. Bonaventure in our next game and focus on the following opponent, {St. Bonaventure}. 

Is one of these two games a trap game?

[NH]

38 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

I always laugh when anyone says, don't look past this opponent.  

Give me the list of opponents we can look past?  Okay, besides Harris Stowe.

I was terrified going into the Eastern Illinois game. Mercer was even worse. 

[NH]

35 minutes ago, Billikenbooster said:

I'm goin'.  Flying out tomorrow morning, wife's family is picking me up, putting me up, then taking me back to the airport.  I guess I'm just filled with the Blue Kool Aid...sorry.  Just realized yesterday morning I had not shaved for our past three wins, so I'm starting a Billiken Beard.  Just like the NHL playoffs.  Letting it grow til we are out!  Wife is aghast, it's her birthday tomorrow...any suggestions?

mhg

I will be there as well. My brother and I are taking the train down from NYC. Excited to see the Tom Gola Arena in all its glory

[3star_recruit]

37 minutes ago, dlarry said:

Yet every year it seems they look past some opponents and it leads to horrible losses.

The isn't some collection of pampered blue chip recruits. Most of the guys on this squad are undersized for their position and have to battle in order to compensate.  They haven't had the luxury looking past opponents. 

Usually when we have a "bad" loss it's because the other team is playing at home and goes nuts from three.  That's going to happen once in a blue moon, no matter how much effort you put forth on defense. That possibility is why any road win is a good win.

[billikenbill]

1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said:

The isn't some collection of pampered blue chip recruits. Most of the guys on this squad are undersized for their position and have to battle in order to compensate.  They haven't had the luxury looking past opponents. 

Usually when we have a "bad" loss it's because the other team is playing at home and goes nuts from three.  That's going to happen once in a blue moon, no matter how much effort you put forth on defense. That possibility is why any road win is a good win.

/end thread - the correct answer has been given.