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The Bills over LaS by 10


The Wiz

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15 hours ago, MusicCityBilliken said:

This is a setup for the perfect trap game.

Recall when RM took the team to Anaheim and we beat Boston College, Oklahoma and Nova. Then we had to get that extra game across town with Loyola-Marymount.

We can't afford to look past anyone now that we in mid-February.

That LMU loss was brutal because it killed all the momentum from winning the Anaheim tournament & getting ranked.  However, LMU wasn't terrible that year.  They finished the season #140 on KenPom. 

To me the more brutal loss that season and one that I really feared would knock us off the bubble was a 2/25/2012 road loss to a bad Rhode Island (#225 on KenPom) team.  Thankfully we won the next 2 relatively tough games (home vs Xavier & at Duquesne) by comfortable margins to finish off the regular season.  We down 40-29 early in the 2nd of that Xavier game (it was a Billiken Blizzard game) and tore off a 24-2 run early in the 2nd half to put the game away winning by 11.

We had brutal conference home losses each of the next 2 season (Majerus teams w Crews "coaching").  1/19/13 hosting a bad (again) Rhode Island squad (KenPom #193) and 2/27/14 hosting a mediocre Duquesne squad (KenPom #152).

I sometimes wonder about those bad conference losses & how they may have affected our seeding.  If we'd have been in a slightly different spot in the bracket, could we have made a deeper run.  Who knows.

I'm hoping that at UMass is our one hiccup this season, but this LaSalle game does have all the "trappings" of a trap game.  

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47 minutes ago, wgstl said:

1) given SLUs trajectory and without a questionable loss, I think the A10 will get two teams in, both at large. 

2) While your point about acc and Pac are correct, the MWC and WCC are expected to have a combined 8 teams.  thats like 4-5 more spots than most years

i say umass is a questionable loss for a team we are hoping gets to at large status. 

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4 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

i am still of the belief that MAYBE one more loss can be acceptable.  and it better be to either davidson or vcu imo.   otherwise we arent going to be in.   winning in DC is still the more likely route to the tourney.

Be more positive. I think 7-2 gets us on the right side of the bubble, barring bid thieves and an early A-10 exit. Does it matter against whom we lose? I'd personally rather we win the one remaining Q-1 game, @ Davidson, than anything else. 7-2 and we dance. You heard it here. Almost none of those other bubble teams are going anything like 7-2 down the stretch. 

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4 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i say umass is a questionable loss for a team we are hoping gets to at large status. 

All of the at-large teams are competing against each other for at large spots. If the Mountain West deserves 4 bids this year, it will get them. The ACC sucks and will likely get 4 bids. 

The issue comes in the fact that teams in other conferences have more chances to improve their resume, and we have more chances to tank it with a bad loss. But we also play an objectively weaker schedule from here on out than a team like Notre Dame. 

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50 minutes ago, NH said:

A10 fans spend so much time every year talking about the chances of the A10 being a one bid league, despite the fact that never once during SLU's time in the league has only one team made the big dance.

This is a rare instance in which I don't agree with @The Wiz analysis. If the season ended today, Davidson would be in the field. Just about every computer system would also have them at an <50% chance of winning the A10 tourney. So the chances of two teams from the A10 making it are almost certainly above 50% (I understand Davidson would have to lose a game in the tourney to make this happen).

The ACC is very down this year, the Pac-12 is nothing to write home about either. The demise of the A10 has been overstated.

I agree with you that in past years the A-10 has been a multi bid conference.  I usually forecast 2 or 3 bids.  But, this year, on Feb 8, it looks like a single bid conference...Ironically, one of the scenarios that would open up a 2nd bid would be if the Bills ran the table.  The 2nd bid team (Dav or Day) could also run the table minus the loss to SLU.

As far as the computer rankings , most are behind me in realizing the Bills are a good team but they are catching up ...not quite there yet...but they will make it ..at least the good ones will.  Earlier in this thread , I discuss why my system has Dav below 40% at this time.  In a nutshell, Dav and the Bills are both winning BUT my computer thinks that right now the Bills are playing better ball than Dav.  I am not sure that Vegas or most handicappers today would pick Dav to win the A-10 tourney. I plugged in the Bills  in DC and it shows the Bills playing either Dayton or Davidson in the final game...In that final game ...using Dav as the opponent...The Bills over Dav by 3. Again you (or the other computers) may disagree  over who is the best team in the A-10 but if you follow my stuff , the other handicappers are usually within a point or 2 of me.  So if we are favored in DC on a neutral court by 3 , that says to me that at least today , we are the best team in the A-10.

Btw, I enjoy reading your posts.

 

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8 minutes ago, Crewsorlose said:

Sure we can. If we go 8-1 with a loss to URI, we will be in the dance. Our NET will get a huge bump from 5 Q2 or Q2 victories. 

TECHNICALLY we could lose one.  My point here is as long as we avoid a loss like a lasalle or joeys etc, we can breathe a little and not have to worry so much every single game.

 

Also Rhody will likely be a Q3 game

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Now that Coach Ford has built up the program, the goal every year should be to win the regular season.  If you finish first in the standings, you're in.  If you finish second, provided you have also have a top 40 NET, you're in. Anything other than that, I agree, you have to win the A10 tournament.

 

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5 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I agree with you that in past years the A-10 has been a multi bid conference.  I usually forecast 2 or 3 bids.  But, this year, on Feb 8, it looks like a single bid conference...Ironically, one of the scenarios that would open up a 2nd bid would be if the Bills ran the table.  The 2nd bid team (Dav or Day) could also run the table minus the loss to SLU.

As far as the computer rankings , most are behind me in realizing the Bills are a good team but they are catching up ...not quite there yet...but they will make it ..at least the good ones will.  Earlier in this thread , I discuss why my system has Dav below 40% at this time.  In a nutshell, Dav and the Bills are both winning BUT my computer thinks that right now the Bills are playing better ball than Dav.  I am not sure that Vegas or most handicappers today would pick Dav to win the A-10 tourney. I plugged in the Bills  in DC and it shows the Bills playing either Dayton or Davidson in the final game...In that final game ...using Dav as the opponent...The Bills over Dav by 3. Again you (or the other computers) may disagree  over who is the best team in the A-10 but if you follow my stuff , the other handicappers are usually within a point or 2 of me.  So if we are favored in DC on a neutral court by 3 , that says to me that at least today , we are the best team in the A-10.

Btw, I enjoy reading your posts.

 

Wiz, does a 26-6 Davidson not make it? Seems like its near a guarantee that they would. Id be shocked if they lose 3 games including tourney from here out given that remaining schedule. I agree that it feels like Davidson took a step back, but it also feels like they got far enough to where they needed to be, before taking that step back. seeing them finish the season 6-2 seems hard enough, looks like like 7-1

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2 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

Now that Coach Ford has built up the program, the goal every year should be to win the regular season.  If you finish first in the standings, you're in.  If you finish second, provided you have also have a top 40 NET, you're in. Anything other than that, I agree, you have to win the A10 tournament.

 

Sometimes I wonder if they will ever do away with the auto qualifier for winning your tournament . Sure it funs, it gives life to teams who have had a bad year, but its not a good indications of who should actually be in.

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3 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I agree with you that in past years the A-10 has been a multi bid conference.  I usually forecast 2 or 3 bids.  But, this year, on Feb 8, it looks like a single bid conference...Ironically, one of the scenarios that would open up a 2nd bid would be if the Bills ran the table.  The 2nd bid team (Dav or Day) could also run the table minus the loss to SLU.

As far as the computer rankings , most are behind me in realizing the Bills are a good team but they are catching up ...not quite there yet...but they will make it ..at least the good ones will.  Earlier in this thread , I discuss why my system has Dav below 40% at this time.  In a nutshell, Dav and the Bills are both winning BUT my computer thinks that right now the Bills are playing better ball than Dav.  I am not sure that Vegas or most handicappers today would pick Dav to win the A-10 tourney. I plugged in the Bills  in DC and it shows the Bills playing either Dayton or Davidson in the final game...In that final game ...using Dav as the opponent...The Bills over Dav by 3. Again you (or the other computers) may disagree  over who is the best team in the A-10 but if you follow my stuff , the other handicappers are usually within a point or 2 of me.  So if we are favored in DC on a neutral court by 3 , that says to me that at least today , we are the best team in the A-10.

Btw, I enjoy reading your posts.

 

I would certainly not argue that those computer ratings are more accurate than yours. As everyone knows, never bet against The Wiz. That said, it seems to me that there is a disconnect between the assessment of Davidson's predictive ranking, and their current NCAA resume. Even if we agree that on a neutral floor today the Bills are better than Davidson, we must also agree that if the season ended today the NCAA selection committee would pick Davidson over SLU (since their criteria are (i) different than ours and (ii) not intended to be entirely predictive). I'm not sure there are enough remaining games to close that gap.

Now there may be a lot more nuance that you are taking into account, which I won't try to guess. But it seems to me that the most likely scenario based on what teams have done to date and what we reasonably expect them to do the rest of the A-10 season results in at least one team who will have an at-large worthy profile entering the tournament. If we have one team getting an at-large bid, then there will likely be 2 bids from the A-10.

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I think something like eliminating the auto qualifier by winning the league's tournament is likely to destroy the NCAA since the teams in the power conferences are better than every single team in most other conferences. The schools in most conferences would lose the aim/incentive of going to the dance somehow, even if it is just to be eliminated quickly. With that incentive gone, plus the money to be gained from playing at the Dance gone, what is the incentive for most conferences to continue supporting the NCAA? The NCAA is not likely, in my opinion, to do this.

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17 minutes ago, wgstl said:

Sometimes I wonder if they will ever do away with the auto qualifier for winning your tournament . Sure it funs, it gives life to teams who have had a bad year, but its not a good indications of who should actually be in.

It is up to the conference to determine who receives the "auto-bid". Any conference could choose to give it to the regular season winner (I believe there are a few examples in the past), but conference tournaments are too lucrative for that to become a trend.

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1 minute ago, BilliesBy40 said:

It is up to the conference to determine who receives the "auto-bid". Any conference could choose to give it to the regular season winner (I believe there are a few examples in the past), but conference tournaments are too lucrative for that to become a trend.

The Ivy League may have been the last hold out. They started having a conference tourney in 2017.

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8 minutes ago, Old guy said:

I think something like eliminating the auto qualifier by winning the league's tournament is likely to destroy the NCAA since the teams in the power conferences are better than every single team in most other conferences. The schools in most conferences would lose the aim/incentive of going to the dance somehow, even if it is just to be eliminated quickly. With that incentive gone, plus the money to be gained from playing at the Dance gone, what is the incentive for most conferences to continue supporting the NCAA? The NCAA is not likely, in my opinion, to do this.

Right, there would have to be another way they'd come up with. I just dont think the current way, is the best., 

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Tonight isn’t that big of a trap game imo. UMass at least had something they were very good at, being one of the best shooting/scoring teams in the country. La Salle is just flat out bad. And I don’t think the guys are overlooking this one. Yuri said himself that the UMass game woke them up, so I think they understand the potential ramifications of overlooking this team. Bills by 25.

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1 hour ago, wgstl said:

Wiz, does a 26-6 Davidson not make it? Seems like its near a guarantee that they would. Id be shocked if they lose 3 games including tourney from here out given that remaining schedule. I agree that it feels like Davidson took a step back, but it also feels like they got far enough to where they needed to be, before taking that step back. seeing them finish the season 6-2 seems hard enough, looks like like 7-1

Depends on how you got to that 26-6 record and where do those 3 losses come from....Dav only has 8 reg games left...They are currently 19-3....if they have losses to Day  and the Bills (reg season) and then lose to the Bills in the final game of the A10 tourney...it would be iffy...2 losses to us and a loss to Day. One of the things that the selection committee looks at   is how have you been playing recently....a 7-3 mark down the stretch will also be iffy when looking at 9-1 or 8-2 teams that are competing for the same spot.  We are not talking about a lot of spots available. The committee is looking at 2 or 3 teams PER available spot.

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I don't think (nor would I favor) eliminating the auto-qualifier in the league's tournament.  You have three seasons ---- the OOC, the conference, and the tournament -- hope springs eternal three times over.  Even if you post an 0fer in the conference season, there is still hope.  I remember a 5 and 23 Detroit team way back in MCC days beating us and running the MCC table.  It's really when March Madness starts.

And I really disagree with Billiesby40's statement that league tournaments are "lucrative."  I guarantee there will be few fannies in the seats at the PIG games in DC.  Ditto for Thursday's quarterfinals.  It will get better but only if the well-traveled teams advance.  The Barclays doesn't even open the upper bowl for A10 games.  And that's the A10 .... one of the top ten conferences in America.  Very few go to the MEAC, the SoCon, the Big South.  I don't buy the lucrative part.  I could see league tourneys as being a part of "sunk costs."  Items that must occur but maybe get offset by NCAA dollars to the conference.

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43 minutes ago, NoCoBillsFan said:

Tonight isn’t that big of a trap game imo. UMass at least had something they were very good at, being one of the best shooting/scoring teams in the country. La Salle is just flat out bad. And I don’t think the guys are overlooking this one. Yuri said himself that the UMass game woke them up, so I think they understand the potential ramifications of overlooking this team. Bills by 25.

Hopefully having to play in Tom Gola Arena won't destroy our will to live.  It's the college basketball equivalent of the office building from Joe Versus the Volcano.

Joe Versus the Volcano (1990) - Photo Gallery - IMDb

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1 hour ago, wgstl said:

Sometimes I wonder if they will ever do away with the auto qualifier for winning your tournament . Sure it funs, it gives life to teams who have had a bad year, but its not a good indications of who should actually be in.

i think they want an excuse to let those 20 leagues with no real deserving qualifier to be in the tourney and they dont want it to be from the regular season in an effort to bolster the conference tourney for making money.  if the tourney means nothing there is little reason for fans to attend imo. 

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2 hours ago, Taj79 said:

I don't think (nor would I favor) eliminating the auto-qualifier in the league's tournament.  You have three seasons ---- the OOC, the conference, and the tournament -- hope springs eternal three times over.  Even if you post an 0fer in the conference season, there is still hope.  I remember a 5 and 23 Detroit team way back in MCC days beating us and running the MCC table.  It's really when March Madness starts.

And I really disagree with Billiesby40's statement that league tournaments are "lucrative."  I guarantee there will be few fannies in the seats at the PIG games in DC.  Ditto for Thursday's quarterfinals.  It will get better but only if the well-traveled teams advance.  The Barclays doesn't even open the upper bowl for A10 games.  And that's the A10 .... one of the top ten conferences in America.  Very few go to the MEAC, the SoCon, the Big South.  I don't buy the lucrative part.  I could see league tourneys as being a part of "sunk costs."  Items that must occur but maybe get offset by NCAA dollars to the conference.

I thought the real money is in the TV packages not the sale of tix.

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3 hours ago, NH said:

I would certainly not argue that those computer ratings are more accurate than yours. As everyone knows, never bet against The Wiz. That said, it seems to me that there is a disconnect between the assessment of Davidson's predictive ranking, and their current NCAA resume. Even if we agree that on a neutral floor today the Bills are better than Davidson, we must also agree that if the season ended today the NCAA selection committee would pick Davidson over SLU (since their criteria are (i) different than ours and (ii) not intended to be entirely predictive). I'm not sure there are enough remaining games to close that gap.

Now there may be a lot more nuance that you are taking into account, which I won't try to guess. But it seems to me that the most likely scenario based on what teams have done to date and what we reasonably expect them to do the rest of the A-10 season results in at least one team who will have an at-large worthy profile entering the tournament. If we have one team getting an at-large bid, then there will likely be 2 bids from the A-10.

NH can you DM me? 
Yep, just figured it out

done

mhg

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4 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I agree with you that in past years the A-10 has been a multi bid conference.  I usually forecast 2 or 3 bids.  But, this year, on Feb 8, it looks like a single bid conference...Ironically, one of the scenarios that would open up a 2nd bid would be if the Bills ran the table.  The 2nd bid team (Dav or Day) could also run the table minus the loss to SLU.

As far as the computer rankings , most are behind me in realizing the Bills are a good team but they are catching up ...not quite there yet...but they will make it ..at least the good ones will.  Earlier in this thread , I discuss why my system has Dav below 40% at this time.  In a nutshell, Dav and the Bills are both winning BUT my computer thinks that right now the Bills are playing better ball than Dav.  I am not sure that Vegas or most handicappers today would pick Dav to win the A-10 tourney. I plugged in the Bills  in DC and it shows the Bills playing either Dayton or Davidson in the final game...In that final game ...using Dav as the opponent...The Bills over Dav by 3. Again you (or the other computers) may disagree  over who is the best team in the A-10 but if you follow my stuff , the other handicappers are usually within a point or 2 of me.  So if we are favored in DC on a neutral court by 3 , that says to me that at least today , we are the best team in the A-10.

Btw, I enjoy reading your posts.

 

Wiz, Does your model actually give a ranking for the teams, i.e. SLU, like the NET or Pomeroy?  If so, I am curious where SLU is ranked in your model.

SLU's latest rankings are:  NET 53, Pomeroy 50, Sagarin 44, ESPN BPI 38, Haslametrics 47, RPI 51, Massey (as of Sunday, 2/6/22) 44.  The average of the 7 is 46.7 ~ 47.  The most important is the NET.

A NET of 53 yields the 4th team of the First 4 OUT, a #1 Seed in the NIT.

As another poster noted, an issue this year is the Mountain West and WCC each potentially producing 4 NCAA teams.  Just by memory and without researching it, I don't recall the WCC ever getting more than 2.  BYU has entered the danger zone, with its NET dropping to 46, which would be in the Last 4 IN.  I also question whether Utah State of the Mountain West at NET 41, but with 9 losses at 14-9 is an NCAA team.  But San Diego State is lurking at 54, and even Fresno State is 56.

Are Power 5's 43 Virginia Tech (14-10) and 48 Oklahoma, which is falling at 13-10, really NCAA teams?  But there's less chance for the NCAA Committee to exclude a Power 5 with a qualifying NET.  The other issue is the Ohio Valley Conference (OVC) potentially having 2 NCAA teams, 29 Murray State and 45 Belmont, which would also be in the Last 4 IN category.  If SLU had held onto those 3 double digit leads ...  Michigan would be the 3rd team out at 52, and the Big Ten often gets its way and its teams IN.

SLU is definitely trending in the right direction.  Keep winning.  Winning takes care of the issue.

I've seen Davidson play and lose in person, at the Chase Center vs. USF (CA).  I believe SLU is better than Davidson.  I also believe SLU is the best team in the A10, with Dayton a close second.  But that Davidson game is on the road on Davidson's home court.  I am confident the good Billikens would beat Davidson in an A10 Tourney game on a neutral floor.  

Davidson has a soft remaining A10 schedule.  Assuming Davidson wins the A10 regular season (here's hoping it doesn't), then I can see the A10 getting 2 NCAA teams because I do not think Davidson will win the A10 Tournament.

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1 hour ago, cheeseman said:

I thought the real money is in the TV packages not the sale of tix.

That's the only A-10 game of the year on a national network in a nice slot. There's a window between football and baseball where college hoops gets a lot of eyeballs. 

I personally think the NCAA tourney and the conference tourneys should lower their ticket prices. Sorry, it's not the NBA. I don't need to pay $80 to watch a 1st round NCAA tourney game on a Thursday afternoon. Drastically reduce and get the stands full. Atmosphere at anything but the Final Four now sucks because of the greed. 

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