The Bills over LaS by 10

[dlarry]

2 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

I trust that the coaching staff puts due emphasis on every game.

Most definitely.

But I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility for 18-22 year olds to look at a teams record and possibly not be as fired up for certain opponents as they should be.

 

Do I think it will happen?
No, but it does happen.

[Old guy]

Team Rankings Vegas line has us as expected winners by 8.5 pts with 3 stars of confidence. The game is an away game. TR's pregame stats has us ahead in every single offensive stat category, and in 5 out of 7 defensive stats category. The Vegas line is close enough to the Wiz's to provide confirmation.

[Compton]

36 minutes ago, dlarry said:

Most definitely.

But I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility for 18-22 year olds to look at a teams record and possibly not be as fired up for certain opponents as they should be.

 

Do I think it will happen?
No, but it does happen.

Agree. And two other things:

1. I think the UMass loss is too close in the rear view for these guys to overlook anything.
2. Considering the Duquesne and GMU games this team seems pretty fired up by any opportunity to make a statement on the road.

[Adman]

3 hours ago, MusicCityBilliken said:

This is a setup for the perfect trap game.

Recall when RM took the team to Anaheim and we beat Boston College, Oklahoma and Nova. Then we had to get that extra game across town with Loyola-Marymount.

We can't afford to look past anyone now that we in mid-February.

I was at that LMU game. Uggh!

[Fraz]

Crazy to think a 2-0 week may very well put us on the right side of the bubble.  Admittedly did not think this was an at-large team 

[Bay Area Billiken]

29 minutes ago, Adman said:

I was at that LMU game. Uggh!

I was also there. 

[Brighton]

11 minutes ago, Fraz said:

Crazy to think a 2-0 week may very well put us on the right side of the bubble.  Admittedly did not think this was an at-large team 

I still don't. They have one more (or two) inexplicable loss in them.

[billiken_roy]

i am still of the belief that MAYBE one more loss can be acceptable.  and it better be to either davidson or vcu imo.   otherwise we arent going to be in.   winning in DC is still the more likely route to the tourney.

[3star_recruit]

Finish top 2 in the conference and have a top 40 NET and we're in.  That gets it done every year in the A10.

[CBFan]

55 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i am still of the belief that MAYBE one more loss can be acceptable.  and it better be to either davidson or vcu imo.   otherwise we arent going to be in.   winning in DC is still the more likely route to the tourney.

Agree they have to win the A10 tournament to get to the big dance.

The only way I see them getting an at large is to win out the season and win 1 game in the A10 tournament that would have the record of 26-7, however I don’t trust the selection committee so win the tournament.

This team can win out and I base that on losing the best offensive player and still lead the conference in scoring.  I did not see that coming but I still expected 22 wins from this team based on the depth.

[billiken_roy]

1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said:

Finish top 2 in the conference and have a top 40 NET and we're in.  That gets it done every year in the A10.

im not sure the A10 is strong enough to get us there with losses to anyone beyond davidson and vcu.   and losses to them is a real missed opportunity to push the number down as well.    I hope you are right.  

[BillsBeliever!!!]

Guys the bubble is awful this year… go 7-2 and win 1-2 games in the A10 tourney and we should be good. Would be like 8-8 in Q1/2 games and only 1 bad loss. 

[The Wiz]

Using the Chance to Dance which is a probability calculation ...the probability of a team to make the Big Dance...the probability will show what you need to do.  If there is only 1 team over 50% then there will most likely be only 1 bid. That bid will be given to the winner of the A-10 tourney.  Right now there is only 1 team over 50%... The Bills (62%). This means if the regular season ended today , we would have to win the A-10 tourney.  Dayton is the only other team right now above 40% (45%)...Which means both Dayton and the A-10 have about a  45% chance of making it...ie Dayton making the tourney and the A-10 of getting 2 bids.  Of course the numbers will change as time goes on but you suddenly won't see a lot of teams above 50% because everyone is playing everybody else in a  league where most of the teams are close to parity. What would it take to get 2 bids...3 teams above 50%...1 team in for sure  and 1 of the other other 2 teams makes it....but even that is a stretch at this point of the season.

Bottom line...The Bills are in the driver's seat....they are the best team in the A-10 and have the best Chance to Dance.

[brianstl]

3 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

i am still of the belief that MAYBE one more loss can be acceptable.  and it better be to either davidson or vcu imo.   otherwise we arent going to be in.   winning in DC is still the more likely route to the tourney.

If we are going to lose a game/games,  it is better to not lose them to Davidson or VCU.  We need more good wins to improve our resume.

[NH]

A10 fans spend so much time every year talking about the chances of the A10 being a one bid league, despite the fact that never once during SLU's time in the league has only one team made the big dance.

This is a rare instance in which I don't agree with @The Wiz analysis. If the season ended today, Davidson would be in the field. Just about every computer system would also have them at an <50% chance of winning the A10 tourney. So the chances of two teams from the A10 making it are almost certainly above 50% (I understand Davidson would have to lose a game in the tourney to make this happen).

The ACC is very down this year, the Pac-12 is nothing to write home about either. The demise of the A10 has been overstated.

[3star_recruit]

Davidson has to fall out of first place to miss the dance.  If that happens, it's most likely because we overtook them.  Good news for us either way.

[The Wiz]

26 minutes ago, brianstl said:

If we are going to lose a game/games,  it is better to not lose them to Davidson or VCU.  We need more good wins to improve our resume.

I guess I don't understand the concept of "afford to lose". If we were  to lose to Dav at their place by 1 pt  in a game that is close to even....then we would suffer a little damage...maybe a few percentage points...a loss  to LaSalle would do heavy damage...maybe 10 or more percentage pts.

Just win

[shempie]

1 minute ago, The Wiz said:

I guess I don't understand the concept of "afford to lose". If we were to lose to lose to Dav at their place by 1 pt  in a game that is close to even....then we would suffer a little damage...maybe a few percentage points...a loss  to LaSalle would do heavy damage...maybe 10 or more percentage pts.

Just win

Just win…..this

[wgstl]

12 minutes ago, NH said:

The ACC is very down this year, the Pac-12 is nothing to write home about either. The demise of the A10 has been overstated.

1) given SLUs trajectory and without a questionable loss, I think the A10 will get two teams in, both at large. 

2) While your point about acc and Pac are correct, the MWC and WCC are expected to have a combined 8 teams.  thats like 4-5 more spots than most years

[AnkielBreakers]

13 minutes ago, NH said:

A10 fans spend so much time every year talking about the chances of the A10 being a one bid league, despite the fact that never once during SLU's time in the league has only one team made the big dance.

This is a rare instance in which I don't agree with @The Wiz analysis. If the season ended today, Davidson would be in the field. Just about every computer system would also have them at an <50% chance of winning the A10 tourney. So the chances of two teams from the A10 making it are almost certainly above 50% (I understand Davidson would have to lose a game in the tourney to make this happen).

The ACC is very down this year, the Pac-12 is nothing to write home about either. The demise of the A10 has been overstated.

Even using that logical approach, you can see an issue. For example, the big conferences have always gotten x% into the dance. So, they will get that same percentage in, while just moving the pieces around. The high mid majors have always gotten x% into the dance, and the same will happen, with just moving some pieces around. The problem we have is the Mountain West  (amongst others), which has been on a tear the last two years. They can steal our 2nd bid.

[wgstl]

5 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I guess I don't understand the concept of "afford to lose". If we were to lose to lose to Dav at their place by 1 pt  in a game that is close to even....then we would suffer a little damage...maybe a few percentage points...a loss  to LaSalle would do heavy damage...maybe 10 or more percentage pts.

 

Wiz, I think you may have just answered it? 

[wgstl]

I also think Sdsu and everyone but Zaga in the WCC are absolute bubble teams. 

[NH]

3 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said:

Even using that logical approach, you can see an issue. For example, the big conferences have always gotten x% into the dance. So, they will get that same percentage in, while just moving the pieces around. The high mid majors have always gotten x% into the dance, and the same will happen, with just moving some pieces around. The problem we have is the Mountain West  (amongst others), which has been on a tear the last two years. They can steal our 2nd bid.

What issue are you referring to? The big conferences do not always get the same percentage of teams into the big dance. I agree that the Mountain West and WCC are having strong years. But that does not necessarily mean they will take a bid from the A10. We are close enough to selection Sunday that we can look at which teams are actually on the bubble and Davidson has a stronger resume than several of the teams in the WCC and Mountain West who could add to those league’s average totals this year. 

[CBFan]

9 minutes ago, brianstl said:

If we are going to lose a game/games,  it is better to not lose them to Davidson or VCU.  We need more good wins to improve our resume.

Agree and if they win both of those and I think they beat VCU at home then they probably win the rest of conference games.

I think the team depth is paying off as the season moves forward and will payoff the next 9 games.

[The Wiz]

11 minutes ago, CBFan said:

Agree and if they win both of those and I think they beat VCU at home then they probably win the rest of conference games.

I think the team depth is paying off as the season moves forward and will payoff the next 9 games.

Depth will also payoff in the A-10 tourney