Bay Area Billiken

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb/promotionrelegation-in-college-football-game-changing-idea-could-help-save-pac-12/ar-AA1gY0gg https://www.kgw.com/article/sports/locked-on/lo-national/pac-12-show/pac-12-mountain-west-merger-could-include-conference-relegation-college-athletics/535-6a8ccd4c-a916-45a2-a8cc-7d51358bb388 The idea of introducing English Soccer relegation to the discussed Pac-2/Mountain West merger is very interesting. On another note, the current Pac-12, in its last season, has 8 teams ranked in the Top 25 in both the AP and FCS Coaches College Football polls.

Comparing last year's schedule to this year's schedule by last season't final NET, the schedule is only slightly less difficult this season, as follows: Overall '22-'23 schedule average NET: 148.0; '23-'24 schedule average NET: 155.8, only 5% easier than last season. One assumption is the Myrtle Beach Invitational goes per the '23 NET, which would have SLU defeating Wyoming, losing to College of Charleston, and playing (and defeating) Wichita State. The nonconference schedule, not including the exempt tournaments, is also only slightly easier in '23-24, an average NET of 146.3 this coming season, vs. 139.9 last season. The same applies to SLU's A10 games, an average NET of 167.5 in '23-'24 vs. 164.4 in '22-'23. In both seasons, SLU played/is playing 1 regular season non-D1 game. In '22-'23 SLU played 18 home games, 11 away and 2 neutral; In '23-'24, SLU is playing 16 home games, 12 away, and 3 neutral.

To be more specific, it appears the Big East wants a school that is going to earn NCAA Units ($). As such, the Big East looks to past performance in terms of earning NCAA Units as the best predictor of future results, those future results being earning NCAA Units as a Big East school. This is not a case of a school bringing NCAA units with it. Yes, those are generally left behind.

What the Big East, itself, appears to want in a prospective new member is NCAA Tournament units. The question then is which conference provides the best opportunity for SLU to accumulate those units. I can see merit in both sides in trying to answer that question. SLU checks all the other boxes.

Football brings the much larger TV money. UConn actually took a TV pay cut when it moved from the AAC to the (New) Big East due to the loss of AAC ESPN TV revenue, in the vicinity of $7M in the AAC to $4+M in the Big East.

https://sports.yahoo.com/inside-smus-pursuit-of-the-power-five--its-a-couple-hundred-million-dollars-im-not-losing-sleep-over-it-125139541.html

The A10 is still significanlty stronger than the MVC (and Horizon) post-Temple, Xavier and Butler (1 year) exits and post-Creighton MVC exit, as proven by the NCAA Tourney bids since, 25 to the A10, 12 to the MVC, 9 to the Horizon. Another point, of the MVC's 26 NCAA bids since '05-'06, 13 were earned by schools that are no longer in the MVC: Wichita State (7), Loyola Chicago (3), Creighton (3). Turning to the Horizon, 7 of the 19 NCAA bids were earned by schools no longer in the Horizon: Butler (5), Valparaiso (2). In the A10, NCAA bids earned by former members amount to 14: Xavier (7), Temple (6), Butler (1). Just subtracting those NCAA bids yields: A10 37, MVC 13, Horizon 12. Five (5) of those 13 MVC bids would have been earned by someone else, other than a team that left, bringing that total up to 18. Likewise, 5 of the 7 Horizon bids would have been won by someone else. The A10 still wins with 37 bids to 18 for the MVC, and 17 for the Horizon. Again, there's no contest. I can see St. Louis Area and Midwest alumni, residents and fans having an issue with the geographic disparity of the A10 vis-a-vis SLU in St. Louis. But the A10 is better than the MVC and Horizon in Basketball, TV availability, and institutional fit categories. This being said, SLU's goal should be Big East membership. If SMU can pull off a miracle and get into the ACC (just think about that), then SLU can make a concerted effort and finally get where it's belonged for 18 and 10 years, the Big East.

A comparison of the number of NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament bids since SLU joined the Atlantic 10 for the '06-'07 season: A10 51, average of 3.0 NCAA bids per season; MVC 26, average of 1.5 NCAA bids per season; Horizon 19, average of 1.056 NCAA bids per season. If the comparison is begun at the '13-'14 season, the season after Temple, Xavier and Butler (one and done) left the A10 and Creighton left the MVC, the number of NCAA Tourney bids is as follows: A10 25, an average of 2.8 per season; MVC 12 bids, an average of 1.3 per season; Horizon, 9 bids, an average of 1 bid per season. All of the above and the following does not include the '20 season when the NCAA Tourney was not played. The MVC has been Juan Bid 6 of the last 7 seasons, the Horizon Juan Bid for the last 13 consecutive seasons. The A10 was Juan Bid in '23 for the first time since '05, before SLU joined the A10. Let's hope '23 was an outlier for the A10, and not the start of a trend. Juan Bid could be an unwelcome guest due to the NCAA Power 5 +1 skewed NET and the Power 5 +1 not playing non-Power 5's on the road. In terms of television rights, the A10 has deals with CBS for its A10 Tourney Championship Game on Selection Sunday, CBS Sports Network, NBC- now on USA Network after the NBC Sports Network folded, and the ESPN Networks for the A10 Friday Night games, which put the A10 in a national spotlight, in an only game in town scenario. This is not a close call- A10 TV access is significantly better than the MVC and eons better than the Horizon. A lot of MVC games are confined to ESPN+ streaming. Whether the A10 can maintain this excellent linear TV exposure remains to be seen. The institutional fit is no contest. I realize the detractors don't like to be told that, but that one is also not close. The only thing the MVC and to a lesser extent Horizon have over the A10 for SLU is geography. As noted by another poster, if the MVC is so great, why did Loyola Chicago leave the MVC for the A10? That is a rhetorical question and yields an obvious answer. My fellow Billikens, this one is not a close call. While the ultimate home for SLU should be in the Big East, the A10 is significantly better than the MVC and Horizon.

This is still college sports. Having members in major cities has given the A10 much better TV access than the MVC and the Horizon. The status of the universities does matter. I didn’t say the A10 is “a good conference.” It used to be pretty good, received 6 NCAA Tourney bids in ‘13. But Temple and Xavier left, and the A10 has been in regression. However, the A10 is still better than the MVC and significantly better than the remnant of the Horizon. The latter is not even close.

The A10 has more like minded institutions in terms of mission, fellow Jesuit schools, Catholic schools, and private schools, to wit: Jesuit (Catholic) Universitites (4): Loyola Chicago, Fordham, St. Joseph's, and SLU; Other Catholic Universities (4): Dayton (Marianist), Duquesne (Spiritan), St. Bonaventure (Franciscan), LaSalle (Christian Brothers); Other Private Universities (3): George Washington, Richmond, Davidson (Presbyterian); The A10 has four (4) public universities of its fifteen (15) members: Massachusetts, Rhode Island, VCU, George Mason.

The Big East TV contract with Fox and the sublicense to CBS and CBS Sports Network expire in '24-'25. There is insufficient time for SLU to drop down in conferences at this point. While I understand the point although I don't agree with it, time now is too much of the essence to be switching conferences. What we are seeing is the conference realigments occur when those TV contracts are expiring. 2023 Conference NET's: Big East 4, Mountain West 5, WCC 8, American (AAC) 9, C-USA 10, WAC 11, A10 12, MVC 15, Horizon 21.

I was present for the SLU at Stanford NCAA Playoff game in 2001. Stanford won that game on what was described to me by a former SLU Soccer player as a miskick, an errant SLU goal kick right to a Stanford player positioned -15 yards in front of him, who promptly deposited the ball right back in the back of the net. Stanford won 1-0. That remains the strangest opponent's goal I've ever seen. Last night's goal at SMU would rank as the second strangest I've ever seen, albeit on ESPN+ internet streaming, not in person. I think the ref should have blown the whistle and stopped play due to an apparent player injury, namely the downed SMU player in the penalty area about 15 yards in front of the SLU goalie. That had to have been a distraction to the SLU players, especially the SLU Goalie, as the downed SMU player was right in front of the SLU Goalie and stayed down in front of him. The SMU announcers conveniently omitted courtside's observation that the SMU goal scorer himself was offsides. The SMU announcer focused on the downed SMU player not being called for offsides because he stayed down, rather than getting up.

SMU wins 1-0, on what seemed to me to be a bizarre first half goal. The high temperature today in Dallas was 110 degrees. The game started in the late daylight at 104 or 105 degrees, and the temperature was 96 degrees in the 2nd Half after 8 p.m. Central, after dark and under the lights. Hydration breaks were called in each half. For the soccer buffs, please explain why the ref didn't blow the whistle and stop play when the SMU player went down in the penalty area, and stayed down. As the SMU announcer said on ESPN+, SLU seemed to stop, waiting for the whistle, and SMU scored seemingly uncontested. Reading the rule, since the SMU player down in penalty area didn’t go for the ball, it wasn’t offsides. SMU announcer said had the player gotten up, it would have been called offsides. But why didn’t the ref blow the whistle and stop play? The SMU guy was down for some time in the middle about 15 yards in front of the SLU Goalie.

I think VCU to AAC is just conjecture. We’ll see.

My goal is for SLU to get in the Big East. I don't think dropping down to the MVC or Horizon does anything to aid that cause. I know the presence of Creighton (from the MVC) and Butler (from the Horizon with 1 intervening year in the A10, in which SLU beat Butler 3 times) in the BE might say otherwise. But I'd still take the A10 over either the MVC or Horizon. I think VCU going to the AAC would be an overall positive for SLU.