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SLU & NCAA Corona Virus Discussion


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19 hours ago, kshoe said:

If the schools are open, they'll play. By then there will be enough tests that you could reasonably test each team once a week and everyone would feel comfortable playing. The risks of being around the team wouldn't be any more material than the risks normal students face in going to class, living in dorms, etc.

Of course, if school is closed then its a different story.

The best chance of saving the season would be to have the kids play in empty arenas.  Maybe you could allow crowds of 500 or less so at least there would be some crowd participation. 

You have to allow some social gatherings over the next 12 months or some people will lose their minds.  They'll be in the hospital for mental illness instead of coronavirus.

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20 hours ago, kshoe said:

Of course, if school is closed then its a different story.

Right, this is going to get really interesting for us college football and basketball fans. I now fear that the pleasure I took in Dayton having the season cancelled when they had their best chance of making a final 4 (Google search after posting, I see they made the Championship game in 1967 losing to UCLA) is going to come back to haunt me.

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2 hours ago, DoctorB said:

OK, I will be the first to say it: (at least I would guess I'm the first; I have not read through the scores of pages on here):

But will there even be a season in the fall? Everyday we hear about another school committing to online fall schedules only. And phase 2 will probably be MUCH worse than this one:

https://thewayofimprovement.com/2020/04/21/cdc-the-second-wave-of-the-coronavirus-could-be-deadlier/

 

Here is the issue, there will keep being waves of this virus until we get a vaccine.  We have never developed a safe and effective vaccine for any Coronavirus. Even herd immunity is temporary with this virus (immunity is most likely at most 12 months) and what we are doing now delays the development of herd immunity.  Since it will likely be years before we have a vaccine, to give the most possible protection to the most vulnerable we would have to do what we are doing now for major parts of most years until we have that vaccine.  
 

Are we all cool with doing this for years?

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Good for Mizzou.  Purdue said the same. Most all colleges will do the same by August. Florida State and Boston U said otherwise- but that was a few weeks ago and will either be the minority or will change their minds. 

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5 hours ago, kshoe said:

Agreed. SLU72 had an interesting theory that local kids are more likely to stay home given the virus and that should be the topic on here. Granted, nothing ever stays completely on topic, but starting another just general coronoavirus thread really is kind of silly.

To SLU72's initial theory... I would agree that the potential elimination of the summer evaluation period could lead to more local guys staying home as the local schools are more likely to have the good scouts on them.

As for kids choosing to stay home because they want to be close to family, I'd say we should look at the transfer portal and market and try to figure out how many of those kids are leaving their current school to be closer to home (rather than the more normal approach of transferring to find a different fit). I don't know the answer to that question, but it should be representative of whether players want to be closer to home because of the virus.

p.s. I suspect there will be some kids that are so sick of being at home after this is all said and done that they'll want to get as far away from their house as possible.

This topic was not introduced to be an add on to the other thread about Covid 19 and the NCAA. The intent was to begin a discussion about what effect this issue will have on athletes deciding where they may decide to go to school. 

I am of the belief the threat of this virus or a future virus will be a consideration when a player is deciding where he or she goes to school. That’s all. It was not intended to imply we’ll have an edge in bringing great local players to SLU. 
Simply, it was to pose the question of what role this issue might play in College recruiting. I don’t think this was an issue covered in the topic about Coronavirus and the NCAA. If it was, mea culpa. 
 

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1 hour ago, slu72 said:

This topic was not introduced to be an add on to the other thread about Covid 19 and the NCAA. The intent was to begin a discussion about what effect this issue will have on athletes deciding where they may decide to go to school. 

I am of the belief the threat of this virus or a future virus will be a consideration when a player is deciding where he or she goes to school. That’s all. It was not intended to imply we’ll have an edge in bringing great local players to SLU. 
Simply, it was to pose the question of what role this issue might play in College recruiting. I don’t think this was an issue covered in the topic about Coronavirus and the NCAA. If it was, mea culpa. 
 

My take is: for college-minded kids we're already heavily recruiting -- the 2021 and 2022 class -- concerns about coronavirus may keep them close to home.  They will finish out their high school careers in the shadow of the pandemic response.  For recruits we sign 5 years down the line?  Probably not.  They're seventh graders now.  For all we know, their lasting memory of COVID-19 may be it's the time they got to play X-Box and shoot hoops in the driveway instead of listening to boring teachers all day.  They don't have to worry about things that adults and budding adults have to worry about.

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College football athletic directors believe college football will be played this season, it's just a matter of when and how that season will look. According to a poll from Brett McMurphy of Stadium, 99% of Football Bowl Subdivision ADs said that football will be played in some form this season; whether that season starts on time, is delayed, shortened or played in the spring is another story. 

Of the 130 FBS ADs polled, 114 responded to the survey. About 75% believe the season won't start on time -- which is to say that Week 0, scheduled to start on Saturday, Aug. 29, won't exist. To boot, 61% of the ADs polled believe season won't start until at least October while another 14% think it won't start until the spring semester of 2021, in either January or February.  Additionally, 41% of the ADs asked said they believe the season, if it started in October or November, would have all 12 games. Only one Power Five AD said they didn't expect the season to be played at all. 

That sentiment wasn't shared by the vast majority of those polled, however, regardless of whether they came from a Power Five or Group of Five program. Money, of course, was the driving reason as to why. "There's too much money at stake, it impacts too many people," a Power Five AD told McMurphy. "If there's no football, we will have bigger issues. This will be worse than the Great Depression and make the 1930s look like a cakewalk."

You can read the entire report here as it is perhaps the most complete view of how college football power brokers feel about the upcoming season.

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10 hours ago, slu72 said:

I too have my doubts about the upcoming fall and winter seasons. Even the schools reopening in September. I read today where UConn is thinking of cancelling, or has cancelled, their fall sports. If we do indeed get a second wave, and the general consensus is it's not a matter of if but when, and it's worse than the first wave, ie more than 45,000 deaths already, what effect is that going to have on the general population? The economy is already starting to crumble, a second wave could bring down the house. Too much uncertainty for sure is the new reality. 

I’ve been trying not to think about it.  Right now I’d handicap the probability the ‘20-‘21 season being played around 50%, and the chances we’ll be allowed in the stands more like 25%.

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8 minutes ago, ARon said:

I’ve been trying not to think about it.  Right now I’d handicap the probability the ‘20-‘21 season being played around 50%, and the chances we’ll be allowed in the stands more like 25%.

I think you may be too pessimistic about the chances for a 2020-2021 season, just guessing I would place the probability around 80% that a 2020-2021 season will be played. As far as public attendance to the games being allowed, I think you may be correct at a 25% probability of public attendance at the games. However I think that the situation may change after a number of games are played with no mishaps and some public attendance (for example limiting attendance to those with season tickets, or something like it) may become allowed at games.

None of this is written in stone, they are just guesses.

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7 hours ago, Old guy said:

I think you may be too pessimistic about the chances for a 2020-2021 season, just guessing I would place the probability around 80% that a 2020-2021 season will be played. As far as public attendance to the games being allowed, I think you may be correct at a 25% probability of public attendance at the games. However I think that the situation may change after a number of games are played with no mishaps and some public attendance (for example limiting attendance to those with season tickets, or something like it) may become allowed at games.

None of this is written in stone, they are just guesses.

If the antibody results continue to place the mortality rate around or below 0.35%, would that change your thoughts?

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9 hours ago, ARon said:

I’ve been trying not to think about it.  Right now I’d handicap the probability the ‘20-‘21 season being played around 50%, and the chances we’ll be allowed in the stands more like 25%.

It will be interesting to see how schools handle season tickets and such.

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7 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

https://www.wlky.com/article/uofl-believes-its-made-breakthrough-in-covid-19-treatment-works-to-fast-track-approval/32240538

A promising breakthrough...no side effects and can be ramped out quickly....on fast track for FDA approval

US News and World Report may want to reconsider how it does his ranking when a potential world-saving treatment comes from a school that's not even in the top 150.

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19 hours ago, brianstl said:

Here is the issue, there will keep being waves of this virus until we get a vaccine.  We have never developed a safe and effective vaccine for any Coronavirus. Even herd immunity is temporary with this virus (immunity is most likely at most 12 months) and what we are doing now delays the development of herd immunity.  Since it will likely be years before we have a vaccine, to give the most possible protection to the most vulnerable we would have to do what we are doing now for major parts of most years until we have that vaccine.  
 

Are we all cool with doing this for years?

Bad post.  Not cause you're wrong or anything, just it's so depressing to even think about.

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3 hours ago, AnkielBreakers said:

If the antibody results continue to place the mortality rate around or below 0.35%, would that change your thoughts?

At this time the whole discussion of what to expect about Covid is deeply enmeshed into arguments that are not scientific, or even realistic. The NCAA and the schools will handle these issues they way they see fit, when they have to make the decision.

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On 4/20/2020 at 12:27 PM, Old guy said:

Here is something interesting related to the Covid epidemic. It is an announcement in the PD that Wash U will be furloughing 1300 employees, mostly in the medical areas and hospitals. This is a quote from the article:

"The school's clinics are seeing 60% fewer patients, the letter says, and the medical school is expecting a revenue loss of $150 million through the end of the fiscal year.

"Even for an institution like ours, with a strong financial foundation, this crisis is taking a huge toll, primarily due to sweeping changes on the Medical Campus, which has completely shifted its operations to respond to COVID-19 patient care," the letter says. "Elective procedures and any activities that are not absolutely necessary or related to COVID-19 have been halted or scaled back. The academic hospitals have hundreds of empty beds."

Please pay attention to the last sentence: "the academic hospitals have hundreds of empty beds." This basically confirms the fact that, at least in St. Louis, the health care system is not overwhelmed by the vast numbers of Covid cases.

So I would say that empty beds are not necessarily a sign of hospitals not being overwhelmed.  What has been a surprising aspect of this epidemic, has been the patients fear of going to the hospital, rightly so at times for things that could have been managed as an outpatient, but also patients not coming in for symptoms like chest pain or abdominal pain and finding things like MI's perforated bowel late.  This was a problem.

There are so many elective procedure/surgery  related hospital stays that when you stop elective and non-urgent procedures,  whole wards are emptied out.  ERs and ICU's might be filled and overwhelming but the Ortho floor is empty.  Clearly though St. Louis in general has done well with hospital resources.   However, I would say that after the first 2-3 weeks, elective procedures should have started back up.  At this point the hospital and outpatient clinics were safe.  The problem was PPE.    Once the PPE is under control, the procedures and hips and knees could have and should have been started back up.   I would highlight, they were not stopped because they were inherently high risk of transmission, but because they were a drain on PPE supplies that were lacking,  and the anticipated surge which was a high tide and not a tsunami .

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On 4/20/2020 at 12:27 PM, Old guy said:

Here is something interesting related to the Covid epidemic. It is an announcement in the PD that Wash U will be furloughing 1300 employees, mostly in the medical areas and hospitals. This is a quote from the article:

"The school's clinics are seeing 60% fewer patients, the letter says, and the medical school is expecting a revenue loss of $150 million through the end of the fiscal year.

"Even for an institution like ours, with a strong financial foundation, this crisis is taking a huge toll, primarily due to sweeping changes on the Medical Campus, which has completely shifted its operations to respond to COVID-19 patient care," the letter says. "Elective procedures and any activities that are not absolutely necessary or related to COVID-19 have been halted or scaled back. The academic hospitals have hundreds of empty beds."

Please pay attention to the last sentence: "the academic hospitals have hundreds of empty beds." This basically confirms the fact that, at least in St. Louis, the health care system is not overwhelmed by the vast numbers of Covid cases.

People are still having heart attacks and strokes, they just aren't going to the hospital. There literally psa's out there from doctors and hospitals, including in St. Louis encouraging people to get hospital care when needed. Some people have gone to hospitals for something else, and have contracted COVID-19 in addition to their own medical problem. Limiting elective surgeries, clinics, etc...also contributing factors. There are still shortages of ppe, tests, etc...many places.

Good of you to contribute during the week of 50k U.S. deaths (vastly underreported) and during all of the hydroxychloroquine discussion (well it's no longer a big talking point for some). Oh, it's still April.

 

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On 4/14/2020 at 6:54 PM, almaman said:

https://news.trust.org/item/20200414214724-hfp57    one day record broken. 26 more and O g 26K prediction toppled. he can just keep pushing goalpost back like King Don.

Had to bump this for 2 reasons one I was doing the math on O Gs shriner #s and then I remembered that I wanted to point this out when it happened; we have passed 52K twice the OG prediction in about 10 days after flying past 26. AKA do you have any idea you' be this far off? 

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John Oliver is doing amazing stuff these days.  I watch his reports weekly: very funny but highly informative; rhetorically and stylistically he is at the top of the heap right now, in terms of political satir.

Another excellent source at the moment is the Atlantic online site, with many excellent reports on higher ed.  I love our roster and the new guys, but I and many of you other MBM's are not going to like this headline one bit:  https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/will-colleges-be-open-coronavirus/610657/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share&fbclid=IwAR2w-X74feBg-99X-he9f1BjdlqTH3fGLc8cAQlMNq7V41Q-JNYDp2muQVw

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