The Bills and Dav EVEN

[The Wiz]

General Outlook.... We took a big hit to the report card in the last game (see below)...a reason why we took a whupping at VCU.  As a result of the loss we have dropped to C-.   Dav comes in with a grade of B- and currently 11th place both in my rankings and in the standings.  Why is that important? Because if you are trying to escape the PIG pen that is where you need to go...to the 11th spot (one step at a time).  Beating another pen member will not get you out. This game is very winnable . We don't need to play great to win . If we play poorly we lose.  Let's take a look at the game

Game Preview....Dav key players are Skogman and Huffman.  Huffman leads the team in Pts...Asts..Stls..Rebs...Skogman leads the team in Pts (tied)..FG% and Rebs(tied) Dav is worse on Off than the Bills but their D is better than ours. If we can step up our D a bit especially on those 2 players , we should be able to put up a W.

Let's take a look at this game's report card....

Report Card.... 

The card is negative...1 up and 5 down......1 up and 3 dn on Off....None up and 2 dn on D...a big hit to the card

.................SLU............Dav................SLU..........................Dav

...........................OFF..........................................DEF.............

PPG..........D+..................D+..................D.-...........................B

FG%.........C-....................C-...................D-............................C+

3P%.........A-.....................C-..................D+..........................D+

FT%.........B-....................C-.....................................................

Reb..........D.....................C-.....................D...........................C-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....FT%......Def....FG%...3P%...PPG

Down.........Off....none......Def...FG%...3P%

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

 Min /gm...Jimerson ...33rd...dn

Dav

Ast...Huffman...54th

Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills....

None

Dav....None

Keys to the Game.......Stop Skogman and Huffman... We need to beat Dav at the FT line...we need to make some shots...in and out ...their 3P Def is weak...we need to take advantage of it.  When Huff or Skog are not in the game we need to outscore Dav.

WWN2D2W...Target slash...47/39/75....Hold Dav  to 69  pts....Match Dav on TOs AND  Rebs....Hold Skogman & Huff to 21pts...Beat Dav on FTM...Out score them from the arc

Bottom line....A win would be big...it would get us away from the PIG.

[Cowboy II]

-at least we don't have any F's on our report card, that's a good thing, right?

[TheChosenOne]

I find myself rather confident that we beat Davidson, but maybe I’m a fool.

[wgstl]

37 minutes ago, Cowboy II said:

-at least we don't have any F's on our report card, that's a good thing, right?

Me in high school 

[Old guy]

I really dislike making this comment. We are ranked 185 by Team Rankings, with a good reason, only Duquesne has had more losses playing in the A10 conference than us, we are at 1-4 win/loss in conference, Duquesne is at  0-5. I have absolutely not a doubt, as your computer reports, that we have the capability to be even or close to even with Davidson. However, I believe all depends on whether we play like we did against Dayton, or whether we like we did against VCU. The team that played against Dayton had the motivation to try its best to win regardless of how much pain the individual players suffered during the game, the team that played against VCU did not.

I think this is something that we will see again in the remaining games of this season. I am on record in your prior threads as to how I link this lack of motivation has become the way our team is playing.

[johnbj14]

@The Wiz Does the projection change for this game and rest of season much with the departure of Tim Dalger? 

[slufan13]

Ok i know its a tough season but we aren't losing to this Davidson team at home. This could actually be a decent week 

[The Wiz]

2 hours ago, johnbj14 said:

@The Wiz Does the projection change for this game and rest of season much with the departure of Tim Dalger? 

Good question...We will have more of an answer after the Wed  game and we see who takes up the extra minutes.  Here is the way it looks now ...at first glance, it looks like a big hole to fill.... 9.7ppg...4.1 reb...nearly 24 min/gm. The computer though looks at the trend and sees a guy who has faded a bit in recent games .  In 5 of the last 7 games...he has scored 3.8ppg...4.2 rebs...in nearly 19 min/gm. So the real question is can we get somebody(ies) to come in and play almost  half a game and score 3.8 pts and get 4.2 rebs.   I think if you take the 19 min and spread them around the answer is yes.   Add 4 more min to EZ and Zhang, 5 more min to Parker and 6 more min to Thames and you should be able to make up the pts and rebs easily. These are all players that have gradually been adding minutes since they have started to play.  Did you know that Parker rebs at the same rate Dalger did?

The real loss here is depth. I think we are OK for this game. It is very close....the computer says it could be OT...that would cause us a depth problem.  Hopefully, we step up in this game and that won't happen.  If we play our game...avoid TOs and make our slash , we should win.

Long term, the depth card could be an issue if we lose anyone for an extended period.    FT trouble could also be an issue, so less careless fouls going forward.

Bottom line...We can withstand the blow of Dalger leaving.   We will have an answer on Wed how those extra mins will be used ...Use them wisely and we could win.

[GoSluBills]

Davidson has not been near the same operation since Bob Mckillop retired. I think we win this one. 

[Taj79]

Davidson is the same team they were last year .... minus the big two of Loyer and Mennenga. And Desmond Watson transferred to Loyola.  They still have Skogman who is a typical Euro big in that he shoots the three.  Plus Huffman who thinks he's better than he is.  Redd Bailey is a soft 6'10" post player.  And Connor Kochera shoots threes ala the Roche kid at Richmond.  Two new adds are Angelo Brizzi who was a top ranked PG recruit when he signed with Villanova and Bobby Durkin, a true freshman at 6'7".  All except Brizzi are averaging nearly 10 ppg.  They are slow and unathletic, but still run the McKillop system.  They are 1 and 4 in league play having their lone win at Fordham.  They have lost at home to Dayton and lost to both Geedubya and Richmond both in overtime.  IO see this as maybe our last chance to get a win in conference (with Umass also a toss up only because they are at home too).

[Box and Won]

On 1/22/2024 at 5:18 PM, johnbj14 said:

@The Wiz Does the projection change for this game and rest of season much with the departure of Tim Dalger? 

Addition by subtraction.

[VeniceMenace]

On 1/22/2024 at 12:05 AM, Old guy said:

I really dislike making this comment. We are ranked 185 by Team Rankings, with a good reason, only Duquesne has had more losses playing in the A10 conference than us, we are at 1-4 win/loss in conference, Duquesne is at  0-5. I have absolutely not a doubt, as your computer reports, that we have the capability to be even or close to even with Davidson. However, I believe all depends on whether we play like we did against Dayton, or whether we like we did against VCU. The team that played against Dayton had the motivation to try its best to win regardless of how much pain the individual players suffered during the game, the team that played against VCU did not.

I think this is something that we will see again in the remaining games of this season. I am on record in your prior threads as to how I link this lack of motivation has become the way our team is playing.

Ford said Parker had his best practice Monday....that means Bills win.

[OkieBilliken]

Gentlemen chose your weapons

 

[cgeldmacher]

On 1/22/2024 at 7:26 PM, The Wiz said:

Good question...We will have more of an answer after the Wed  game and we see who takes up the extra minutes.  Here is the way it looks now ...at first glance, it looks like a big hole to fill.... 9.7ppg...4.1 reb...nearly 24 min/gm. The computer though looks at the trend and sees a guy who has faded a bit in recent games .  In 5 of the last 7 games...he has scored 3.8ppg...4.2 rebs...in nearly 19 min/gm. So the real question is can we get somebody(ies) to come in and play almost  half a game and score 3.8 pts and get 4.2 rebs.   I think if you take the 19 min and spread them around the answer is yes.   Add 4 more min to EZ and Zhang, 5 more min to Parker and 6 more min to Thames and you should be able to make up the pts and rebs easily. These are all players that have gradually been adding minutes since they have started to play.  Did you know that Parker rebs at the same rate Dalger did?

The real loss here is depth. I think we are OK for this game. It is very close....the computer says it could be OT...that would cause us a depth problem.  Hopefully, we step up in this game and that won't happen.  If we play our game...avoid TOs and make our slash , we should win.

Long term, the depth card could be an issue if we lose anyone for an extended period.    FT trouble could also be an issue, so less careless fouls going forward.

Bottom line...We can withstand the blow of Dalger leaving.   We will have an answer on Wed how those extra mins will be used ...Use them wisely and we could win.

 I'd be fine with giving most of it to Thames.

[Bay Area Billiken]

Lines:

cbssports.com:  SLU -2, o146;

ESPN.com:  SLU -2.5.

[Lord Elrond]

WWNTD2L (what we need to do to lose): 38/15/75, give up 12 TO’s to their 3, they score 21 pts off turnovers to us not cashing in on a single one of their’s. Yep, that’ll do it…

[The Wiz]

This post game analysis should be relatively easy....2 key issues ...Slash line miss and opponent TOs.

1...Slash line miss...There have been a number of slash line misses this season....These misses are not about pie in the sky unrealistic A+ shooting expectations....but a failure  to make Billiken season averages.....Just do your own average for the season.  In tonight's game, we missed a whopping 22 three pt  shots....15%..3Pt% .... less than half of what we normal make. Not good...On an average  night we would have made 6 more 3s...18 pts...an impossible stat to overcome.

2...TOs...More specifically TO spread...the difference between our TOs and our opponent's TOs.   The problem isn't so much  how many TOs we have ...we have a slightly above average C+ in team TOs.   But when we look at opponent TOs we are  a horrible F rated team.   I have not even figured in tonight's 3 TOs but when I do it will show we are one of the worst Div 1 teams in opponent TOs.  This stat led to the related factor of pts off TOs...21-0  in favor of Dav

Bottom line...The inability of SLU to force TOs on opposing teams is why we  have a losing record this season. 

[Soderball]

31 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

This post game analysis should be relatively easy....2 key issues ...Slash line miss and opponent TOs.

1...Slash line miss...There have been a number of slash line misses this season....These misses are not about pie in the sky unrealistic A+ shooting expectations....but a failure  to make Billiken season averages.....Just do your own average for the season.  In tonight's game, we missed a whopping 22 three pt  shots....15%..3Pt% .... less than half of what we normal make. Not good...On an average  night we would have made 6 more 3s...18 pts...an impossible stat to overcome.

2...TOs...More specifically TO spread...the difference between our TOs and our opponent's TOs.   The problem isn't so much  how many TOs we have ...we have a slightly above average C+ in team TOs.   But when we look at opponent TOs we are  a horrible F rated team.   I have not even figured in tonight's 3 TOs but when I do it will show we are one of the worst Div 1 teams in opponent TOs.  This stat led to the related factor of pts off TOs...21-0  in favor of Dav

Bottom line...The inability of SLU to force TOs on opposing teams is why we  have a losing record this season. 

our point guard play is beyond the pale, Wiz. It is bad, bad, bad and getting worse.

[SLU_Nick]

@The Wiz - what would the spread br if this team played the Crews/yarbrough/bartley team? 
 

Can the computer pull that one off?

[Old guy]

17 hours ago, VeniceMenace said:

Ford said Parker had his best practice Monday....that means Bills win.

Wrong, we lost by 23 against Davidson. Team rankings had us winning by 2 (Vegas inspired, that is betting inspired), the Wiz had us even. When the game was over and the dust settled, we were not close to even. I have said it before, this team has lost the drive to risk being physically beaten and possible injury to win  a game. I see no drive to win in the way they play. We really do not know the cause for Dalgren's mysterious disappearance, and there were the unkind words from Ford after a magnificent performance against Dayton, at Dayton. This team is flat, no one appears to be willing to take risk of injury and the certainty of physical contact with the opposite team during play. This is a team that does not have the will to win any longer, they will do what they have to do, but the team, as a team, does not have the drive to win. 

In sports there are good teams and  bad teams. We, at least during this, hopefully, Ford's last season, are a bad team. What we are lacking is not the ability, it is the drive to win.

 

[billiken_roy]

imo this teams biggest weakness is they dont do anything right fundamentally.   stuff we were taught as 6th graders playing basketball they dont do.   they have no sense of defense, particularly help defense and rotations when playing zone.   it is just plain bad basketball. 

they are decent enough athletes.  they just are not good basketball players.  we played a team last night that we would beat in the decathalon up and down the lineups.   unfortunately no one was there to run the decathalon.   there was supposed to be a basketball game.  unfortunately, particularly in the second half, only davidson showed up.

[billikenbill]

8 hours ago, Old guy said:

Wrong, we lost by 23 against Davidson. Team rankings had us winning by 2 (Vegas inspired, that is betting inspired), the Wiz had us even. When the game was over and the dust settled, we were not close to even. I have said it before, this team has lost the drive to risk being physically beaten and possible injury to win  a game. I see no drive to win in the way they play. We really do not know the cause for Dalgren's mysterious disappearance, and there were the unkind words from Ford after a magnificent performance against Dayton, at Dayton. This team is flat, no one appears to be willing to take risk of injury and the certainty of physical contact with the opposite team during play. This is a team that does not have the will to win any longer, they will do what they have to do, but the team, as a team, does not have the drive to win. 

In sports there are good teams and  bad teams. We, at least during this, hopefully, Ford's last season, are a bad team. What we are lacking is not the ability, it is the drive to win.

 

That’s ridiculous. This team’s problem can be summed up in one word, LOFT, aka Lack Of Frickin’ Talent. When Jimerson is your best player, your team lacks talent. He’s a streak shooter only, not a pure shooter with a reliable game by game jumper, but a streak shooter who gets hot for a game or two then can’t hit water from a boat. Last night, 0-5, and none had a remote chance of going in.

TJ is a terrific run/jump athlete who busts his tail every minute he’s out there. Unfortunately, he’s 2-3” too short for his skillset and has no touch around the rim whatsoever. His percentage of makes on spin moves or jump hooks has to very low.

Our point guard play is dreadful. Medley is too small and doesn’t make up for it by being exceptionally quick. Meadows can make a bucket here or there but is about as average a point guard as you’ll see at the mid-major level. 

Hughes has been a massive disappointment. Shooting under 30% from three, can’t create his own shot, and his decision-making has been horrendous. Those two back-breaking turnovers to start the second half were comical and embarrassing to watch. Jimerson’s was equally bad as well.

Parker has some talent but his decision-making on when to shoot is pitiful. Back in the day, we’d say that Parker plays like such a hot dog that there isn’t enough mustard around to go on it. 

Bruce is the kind of project big that if he works hard could be a reliable big by his jr. year. Thames is a terrific athlete but can’t stop fouling. 

Eziwero is a high major talent and, with the exception of shot-blocking, is the best big I’ve seen in a Billiken uniform since I started paying close attention to the Bills 25 years ago. 

Bottom line, despite his desire to lead a winning program, Ford’s offensive system does not work, and my guess is he probably overcoaches his teams with too much info in the scouting reports. These guys think too much rather than just play the game. 

Don’t know where the cash comes from, but his time has to be up, sooner rather than later.

[Old guy]

OK guys you have to explain why these players who has no defense capability at all managed to play against Dayton at Dayton's home court and get to end the game just 5 points below Dayton. How come they did have sufficient capability in both offense and defense tp achieve this result. And then become totally unable to play defense and offense as you describe.

The bottom line is that this team does not work for Ford any longer. That is the way I see it.

[The Wiz]

20 minutes ago, Old guy said:

OK guys you have to explain why these players who has no defense capability at all managed to play against Dayton at Dayton's home court and get to end the game just 5 points below Dayton. How come they did have sufficient capability in both offense and defense tp achieve this result. And then become totally unable to play defense and offense as you describe.

The bottom line is that this team does not work for Ford any longer. That is the way I see it.

I can't address the spirit or chemistry of the team but I can show you the numbers.  If you have been following my posts over time around the board , you will note that I have been harping on TO spread...the difference between the TOs we commit and the TOs the opponent commits.   My contention is as soon as we close the TO gap we can compete with anyone.  In the Dayton game, the Flyers had 8 TOs , we had 10...a close spread of 2.  The only reason we lost the game to 14th ranked Day is because they had an extra 22 FTA. They were lucky to win that game.  Now contrast that with the Dav game . We had a decent 12 TOs but they had only 3....those extra 9 TOs were worth about 20pts.  The inability  of the Bills to pressure the other team into TOs is a death blow to winning games.

[Soderball]

18 hours ago, billikenbill said:

That’s ridiculous. This team’s problem can be summed up in one word, LOFT, aka Lack Of Frickin’ Talent. When Jimerson is your best player, your team lacks talent. He’s a streak shooter only, not a pure shooter with a reliable game by game jumper, but a streak shooter who gets hot for a game or two then can’t hit water from a boat. Last night, 0-5, and none had a remote chance of going in.

TJ is a terrific run/jump athlete who busts his tail every minute he’s out there. Unfortunately, he’s 2-3” too short for his skillset and has no touch around the rim whatsoever. His percentage of makes on spin moves or jump hooks has to very low.

Our point guard play is dreadful. Medley is too small and doesn’t make up for it by being exceptionally quick. Meadows can make a bucket here or there but is about as average a point guard as you’ll see at the mid-major level. 

Hughes has been a massive disappointment. Shooting under 30% from three, can’t create his own shot, and his decision-making has been horrendous. Those two back-breaking turnovers to start the second half were comical and embarrassing to watch. Jimerson’s was equally bad as well.

Parker has some talent but his decision-making on when to shoot is pitiful. Back in the day, we’d say that Parker plays like such a hot dog that there isn’t enough mustard around to go on it. 

Bruce is the kind of project big that if he works hard could be a reliable big by his jr. year. Thames is a terrific athlete but can’t stop fouling. 

Eziwero is a high major talent and, with the exception of shot-blocking, is the best big I’ve seen in a Billiken uniform since I started paying close attention to the Bills 25 years ago. 

Bottom line, despite his desire to lead a winning program, Ford’s offensive system does not work, and my guess is he probably overcoaches his teams with too much info in the scouting reports. These guys think too much rather than just play the game. 

Don’t know where the cash comes from, but his time has to be up, sooner rather than later.

Ezewiro has zero conditioning. At one point in the 2nd half of the Davidson he was literally walking around on the court. We had a possession where we went for a layup before BE could even get across the 10 second line.  Ford started taking him off the offensive free throw rebounds to keep him from having to run the floor. Sometimes he appears to be arguing with Ford when Ford wants to put him back in the game. Sometimes Ezewiro looks like he's not even going to make it to the bench. It's bad stuff. I think Jerry Pollard might be in better conditioning than Brad is at this point.

He literally has the worst conditioning and stamina of any athlete in any sport and at any level that i have ever seen in my entire life. Big Cozy looks like an olympic sprinter compared to where Ezewiro is at. I don't know if it's a health issue or what but Ezewiro is just exhausted and gassed after about 15 minutes of play. Honestly watching a young man struggle to move up and down the floor like that, while being a pro athlete, suggests it might be a health problem, that is pure conjecture based on nothing.. however watching a guy be gassed like that is not normal.

 

That said when he is on he is pretty good. Best big you've ever seen? Man you haven't been watching for long then. Voyoukas and Heinrich and Loe and Willie Reed especially were much better. Did you miss watching Willie Reed?

Anthony Bonner? Ezewiro is listed 6' 9" .. AB is 6' 8" .. AB played 133 games and AVERAGED 15 pts and 11 rebs per game through all of those. He did that against Memphis, Louisville, Cincinnati, etc. game in and game out. AB was a first round NBA draft pick. You think Ezewiro is a first round NBA draft pick?

 

What team have you been watching because it wasn't the SLU billikens.

 

Jimerson has an incredible 3pt% for his career. Among the best. He is a trash athlete and has no speed whatsoever and can't defend however. He's mildly better than Lisch for career(39.5 for KL and 40.2 for GJ) however look at their other stats, rebounds and so on.. Jimerson is way, way behind. Jimerson literally just shoots. Look at his career stats; few fouls, few rebounds, few anything. Just shots. Lisch has the kind of stats that reflect a combo SG/PG who not only made shots but handled the ball and played defense against quality offensive players. You're right that Jimerson is overrated by us due to the roster compositions he's played with, but he is a very good 3pt shooter, if someone is giving him the ball(Miss YC yet?)

 

Your statement about LOFT is true but you overestimate this teams talent still. This recruiting class, for THIS year, is the worst since Jim Crews and ranks among the worst 5 in Billiken history. Ekker could not manage to bring in players as bad as Ford has this year. Dalger, Ezewiro, Zhang, Curcic, Bussel, Magassa. What a failure.