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NC St over The Bills by 12


The Wiz

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What a great game against LaT....For more info see the post game wrap up in the LaT spread thread...also  the 5 second thread for  a virtual reality second by second "what if" finish.

General Outlook....Last game, I mentioned we were at a turning point or crossroads  and that was before the TRO was announced. It seems like we have taken the first step in the turnaround. Doesn't mean that it will be smooth sailing from here but over the coming games things should get better. The report card below is a good example  ....we were up in 5 categories and down in none. However we still have  a ways to go before we are respectable especially on defense....One step at a time.

Game Preview....Another tough one in NC St.....currently at an A-...this won't be the toughest team we play all year but this game may be the toughest...playing a quality opponent on the road.  The NET shows them as an NIT team ...I have them as a borderline team...bordering between NIT and the  Dance. Bottom line ...after coming off a loss, this is a big game for the Wolfpack to keep their Dance dreams alive. As for the Bills, we slipped down a bit to a grade of C.  How can this be?...We just won 2 games over fairly tough opponents.. The reason is we did what we were supposed to do...the games were even  and we played them even,  so theoretically we should move sideways....but if a few teams behind you do well they can jump over you and knock you back a little. That's what happened here.  The good news is almost all the teams we have remaining on the schedule will have higher grades than us . If we keep winning , we can move up the ladder easier. As you can see by the spread it won't be easy. But as I have said before , there is no one on the schedule that we can't beat.  NC St is not the best team we have played (that would be USU). But because we will be playing on the Wolfpack court this makes this game as tough as USU. If you look at the report card below, we are fairly  close to NC St.

They play 4 guards and a forward...we have seen this before ....3 guards and the forward will play most of the game. Burns is their big guy...6'9" & 275..he will be a load. The other 2 to watch are Taylor and Horne...they are their 3 point shooters. Stop those 3  and we win.

Report Card.... 

Report card...  after the last game the card is positive ...5 up ...0 down...Going forward, I will add SOS to the report card...If a team gets straight A's  and has only played bottom feeders , it may not be as good as straight B's from a team that has played top teams.

SOS....NC St...B....The Bills... B-

...................SLU......................NC St........................SLU............................NC St

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............C........................B...........................D........................................C

FG%...............C-.....................C+..........................D.......................................C

3P%...............A+..16th ITN......B-...........................C.....................................D-

FT%...............B-.........................C+................................................

Reb...............D-..........................C..........................D-...................................D-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....PPG...FG%...3P%......Def.....FG%...3P%

Down.........Off......none.........................Def....none

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

none

NC St

none

Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills....

Meadows...Dec 16...Questionable for Sat....Back

Parker ....Nov 17....Out indefinitely...fractured foot

NC St....

none

Keys to the Game......Turnovers...we have been pretty good about protecting the ball...we need to force some turnovers.  Control their big 3 ...Taylor and Horne from the arc and Burns from around the boards. We need to make shots especially the bunnies and layups.

WWN2D2W...Target slash...48/51/40/73....Keep Taylor and Horne under 40% from the arc.  Beat them on the boards...this is not a typo ... The numbers show it is possible....Beat them on TOs...Hold them to 71 pts....Hold their top 3 scorers to 34 pts.

Bottom line....If we can shut them down from the arc  and if Ezewiro can handle Burns, we can send the Wolfpack howling. 

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36 minutes ago, JohnnyJumpUp said:

 

They worked Crews' end of game plan to perfection. Both Loe and Jett were huge.

Jett drove the lane in the second half and simply muscled his way to lay ups and getting fouled at times.  He was the catalyst for the comeback.  I agree others helped but Crews had nothing to do with Jett driving.  He simply put the team on his back for the comeback.  Talk about a stunned team/fan base - NCST was it.

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21 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

Jett drove the lane in the second half and simply muscled his way to lay ups and getting fouled at times.  He was the catalyst for the comeback.  I agree others helped but Crews had nothing to do with Jett driving.  He simply put the team on his back for the comeback.  Talk about a stunned team/fan base - NCST was it.

Jett made the huge game tying drive to tie it late in the 2nd half, but a lot of other stuff happened the prior two minutes, including a 3-pointer by Evans (a rarity), one by Loe and a huge one by Barnett with 48 seconds left. Also, a huge steal and layup by Grandy with a little over a minute left to cut the lead to 3. A wild game.

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3 hours ago, ACE said:

Jett made the huge game tying drive to tie it late in the 2nd half, but a lot of other stuff happened the prior two minutes, including a 3-pointer by Evans (a rarity), one by Loe and a huge one by Barnett with 48 seconds left. Also, a huge steal and layup by Grandy with a little over a minute left to cut the lead to 3. A wild game.

Grandy....anyone have any recent updates on him🤔

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We frickin’ own NC State although Burns will be a problem. Eziwero has to stay on the floor to give us a chance. Don’t follow the Pack anymore so aside from Burns I have no idea what they have. Their results so far don’t seem all that impressive though.

Being positive about my team nearly always backfires, so I’ll leave any talk of an upset right there. It might not be NC State, but I have a feeling that good things will arrive very soon… leaving out any reference to a new coach.

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I checked the data again today and 1 standard deviation is showing NC St. winning by 6-15 pts...with the final outcome around 10-12 pts.....Also there was a footnote that said if The Bills are trailing by 6 with a minute left...give the ball to Hargrove...over and over and over....

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6 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I checked the data again today and 1 standard deviation is showing NC St. winning by 6-15 pts...with the final outcome around 10-12 pts.....Also there was a footnote that said if The Bills are trailing by 6 with a minute left...give the ball to Hargrove...over and over and over....

Props to Rammer for a great call on the finish.

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Road games are where your weaknesses get exposed.  Southern Illinois saw a hobbled, undersized lineup with point guard being handled by committee.  That game was over in the first 5 minutes.

Tonight presents a similar challenge.  Medley is getting better week by week but he doesn't scare anybody.  They'll attack Big Brad to get him in foul trouble.  We've got to make it to halftime within single digits to stay in this game.

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2 hours ago, thetorch said:

 

This video got me thing about TJ Warren. I don’t follow the NBA a lot do I wanted to check him out.

He has had a pretty nice career.

I also noticed he is a career 78% FT shooter in the NBA. Thankfully he wasn’t  shooting at that clip against the Bills. 

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