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2022-2023 Season


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Dayton has the same H&H pairings.

Loyola has us, Dayton, GMU, and SJU.

VCU has us, Dayton, Richmond, and Davidson.

Davidson has us, Dayton, VCU, and Fordham.

So it really looks like the league is telling us and Dayton this is our chance.

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By T-rank (https://barttorvik.com/trankpre.php) projected finish:

1. Dayton - H & A

2. SLU - N/A

3. Loyola - H & A

4. VCU - H & A

5. Richmond - A

6. Davidson - H & A

7. Mason - H

8. Rhody - H

9. UMass - A

10. Fordham - A

11. LaSalle - H

12. Bona - H

13. GW - A

14. Duq - H

15. St Joes - A

Hold serve at home / beat all the teams we should on the road.  Barring unforeseen circumstances, anything worse than 13-5 is totally unacceptable.  O/U is probably 14-4 or 15-3?

Loving that we don't have to travel to Olean to face what looks like mediocre / bad Bona team and that we finally get to place Davidson at home.

I like that we have the same H&H pairings as Dayton so there isn't a big SOS difference between the projected top 2.

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For anyone who cares,

This is our 10th H and H with Dayton since the A10 stabilized in 2013/14 after the multiple departures.

This will be our 4th H and H with VCU, (there should have been more)

Amazingly this is our 1st H and H with Davidson (they came in 14/15)

Of course this is our first H and H with Loyola

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3 hours ago, RUBillsFan said:

By T-rank (https://barttorvik.com/trankpre.php) projected finish:

1. Dayton - H & A

2. SLU - N/A

3. Loyola - H & A

4. VCU - H & A

5. Richmond - A

6. Davidson - H & A

7. Mason - H

8. Rhody - H

9. UMass - A

10. Fordham - A

11. LaSalle - H

12. Bona - H

13. GW - A

14. Duq - H

15. St Joes - A

Hold serve at home / beat all the teams we should on the road.  Barring unforeseen circumstances, anything worse than 13-5 is totally unacceptable.  O/U is probably 14-4 or 15-3?

Loving that we don't have to travel to Olean to face what looks like mediocre / bad Bona team and that we finally get to place Davidson at home.

I like that we have the same H&H pairings as Dayton so there isn't a big SOS difference between the projected top 2.

I find this ranking interesting.  For me, the safe thing to do at this point in the preseason is to place the teams in three, five team tiers.  Even that isn't easy.  Tier 1, top four of Dayton, SLU, Loyola and VCU seem safe, but then pick Richmond, Davidson, Mason, Rhody or UMass as the 5th.  Any of them could get there.  Chemistry will be hug factor for several teams. 

Second tier, mix and match up from the Top Tier, but will Fordham make that cut at 10?  LaSalle, no thanks, but St. Bonnie has Schmidt.  If he gets the chemistry right, they could get to #10.

Bottom Tier, the last three seem "safe", but if St. B goes up, someone has to come down.  Fun to guess.

And the BIGGEST ISSUE, with 15 teams, will all 15 to the the A10 Tourney?  Will there be a Pre-Pillow Fight, Pillow Fight? Or will #15 simply get to watch the tourney on TV???

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1 minute ago, HoosierPal said:

 

And the BIGGEST ISSUE, with 15 teams, will all 15 to the the A10 Tourney?  Will there be a Pre-Pillow Fight, Pillow Fight? Or will #15 simply get to watch the tourney on TV???

-I hadn't thought about this one, good point

-Frank, please ask Travis or Chris May on their next appearance and thanks in advance

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1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:

I find this ranking interesting.  For me, the safe thing to do at this point in the preseason is to place the teams in three, five team tiers.  Even that isn't easy.  Tier 1, top four of Dayton, SLU, Loyola and VCU seem safe, but then pick Richmond, Davidson, Mason, Rhody or UMass as the 5th.  Any of them could get there.  Chemistry will be hug factor for several teams. 

Second tier, mix and match up from the Top Tier, but will Fordham make that cut at 10?  LaSalle, no thanks, but St. Bonnie has Schmidt.  If he gets the chemistry right, they could get to #10.

Bottom Tier, the last three seem "safe", but if St. B goes up, someone has to come down.  Fun to guess.

And the BIGGEST ISSUE, with 15 teams, will all 15 to the the A10 Tourney?  Will there be a Pre-Pillow Fight, Pillow Fight? Or will #15 simply get to watch the tourney on TV???

T-Rank preseason rankings are I think computer generated based on prior year with adjustments for players IN/OUT.  Obviously to be taken with a massive grain of salt (Richmond & LaSalle are overrated in my eyes), but are just as good as MBM guesses at this point.

Putting teams in tiers instead of specific rankings is a way to hedge your bets / be less specific on early predictions.  You can look at the teams overall grades on T-Rank & lump ones that are closer together into tiers if you'd like.

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14 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

Davidson gets Purdue. We get Evansville. Oh well. 

It is a really good game for Davidson to get.  Kudos to them.  You are comparing a neutral site event game versus home buy game.   Apples and oranges.  Plus our schedule is already gone of the toughest we've had in years.  Really odd to gripe about.

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We also have at least 5 more games to announce. I would expect 2 to be exhibitions and at least 2 of the 3 remaining regular season games to be home buy games. The third could be a wild card - could very well be another buy game but I think if we have 2 exhibitions and 2 buy games left to announce, that's 18 home dates, which is what you want for season ticket holders.

From what I'm hearing, these should all have some level of interest for fans. They're not low-level buy games against teams casual fans haven't heard of.

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1 hour ago, RUBillsFan said:

It is a really good game for Davidson to get.  Kudos to them.  You are comparing a neutral site event game versus home buy game.   Apples and oranges.  Plus our schedule is already gone of the toughest we've had in years.  Really odd to gripe about.

Here is my stance. You can disagree and everything will be fine. Call it apples to oranges if you want.  They toss the ball up at the start of the came and the team with the most points wins.  Seems to me a game is a game.  They all count.  I want this team to maximize the chance for a high seed in the NCAA tourney.  

This is our 'year'.  If anyone doesn't think this year is our shot, well, when will it be.  Quad 4 wins do us no good.  I anticipate Evansville will end up in Q4, with a new coach hired late and a large turnover of a not so good roster. 

"The team needs a buy game or two to gel". Yada Yada.  If we don't come out of the gate sprinting, I will be very disappointing.  We need to build our resume from the start.  No Lindenwood, no Central Arkansas State, no Eastern Illinois, no Evansville.   We need Q1 and Q2 games, wherever we can get them.  We will be playing too many Q3 and Q4 games in conference.  At Selection Sunday, I don't want to hear, the Bills are a 10th seed because they had only (one or two or three) Quad 1 wins.  How many Q1/Q2 games will our A10 brethern provide?   I'm greedy.  This is the year.  Evansville isn't going to help us get us a high seed.

We still have a couple more games to be announced.  Think they will be Q1/Q2?  I don't. 

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7 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Here is my stance. You can disagree and everything will be fine. Call it apples to oranges if you want.  They toss the ball up at the start of the came and the team with the most points wins.  Seems to me a game is a game.  They all count.  I want this team to maximize the chance for a high seed in the NCAA tourney.  

This is our 'year'.  If anyone doesn't think this year is our shot, well, when will it be.  Quad 4 wins do us no good.  I anticipate Evansville will end up in Q4, with a new coach hired late and a large turnover of a not so good roster. 

"The team needs a buy game or two to gel". Yada Yada.  If we don't come out of the gate sprinting, I will be very disappointing.  We need to build our resume from the start.  No Lindenwood, no Central Arkansas State, no Eastern Illinois, no Evansville.   We need Q1 and Q2 games, wherever we can get them.  We will be playing too many Q3 and Q4 games in conference.  At Selection Sunday, I don't want to hear, the Bills are a 10th seed because they had only (one or two or three) Quad 1 wins.  How many Q1/Q2 games will our A10 brethern provide?   I'm greedy.  This is the year.  Evansville isn't going to help us get us a high seed.

We still have a couple more games to be announced.  Think they will be Q1/Q2?  I don't. 

Based on current predictive metric rankings, SLU projects to have 14 Q1/2 games. 10 Q3 and 4 Q4. There are still 3 games to be added. Last season, including postseason play, SLU had 7 Q1, 7 Q2, 10 Q3, and 10 Q4. A few of this year’s games are right on the border of a higher quadrant. At the end of the day, they have put a better schedule together than last season by simply having less Q4 games. The most important thing this year will be improving their record against Q1/Q2, where they were only 5-9 last season (1-6 Q1, 4-3 Q2) 

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15 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Here is my stance. You can disagree and everything will be fine. Call it apples to oranges if you want.  They toss the ball up at the start of the came and the team with the most points wins.  Seems to me a game is a game.  They all count.  I want this team to maximize the chance for a high seed in the NCAA tourney.  

This is our 'year'.  If anyone doesn't think this year is our shot, well, when will it be.  Quad 4 wins do us no good.  I anticipate Evansville will end up in Q4, with a new coach hired late and a large turnover of a not so good roster. 

"The team needs a buy game or two to gel". Yada Yada.  If we don't come out of the gate sprinting, I will be very disappointing.  We need to build our resume from the start.  No Lindenwood, no Central Arkansas State, no Eastern Illinois, no Evansville.   We need Q1 and Q2 games, wherever we can get them.  We will be playing too many Q3 and Q4 games in conference.  At Selection Sunday, I don't want to hear, the Bills are a 10th seed because they had only (one or two or three) Quad 1 wins.  How many Q1/Q2 games will our A10 brethern provide?   I'm greedy.  This is the year.  Evansville isn't going to help us get us a high seed.

We still have a couple more games to be announced.  Think they will be Q1/Q2?  I don't. 

1) Let's be blunt - our winning percentage in Q1/Q2 games has been horrible.  Next season we have more projected Q1/Q2 games than I've seen in many years.  We have plenty of Q1/Q2 opportunities.  The challenge is to finally go .500 in those games.

2) I don't see a meaningful difference in competition between securing a 6 seed over a 10 seed.  Early tournament games involving such teams are toss-up.  In fact, it's often the underseeded mid major team that goes on a run.

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33 minutes ago, johnbj14 said:

Based on current predictive metric rankings, SLU projects to have 14 Q1/2 games. 10 Q3 and 4 Q4. There are still 3 games to be added. Last season, including postseason play, SLU had 7 Q1, 7 Q2, 10 Q3, and 10 Q4. A few of this year’s games are right on the border of a higher quadrant. At the end of the day, they have put a better schedule together than last season by simply having less Q4 games. The most important thing this year will be improving their record against Q1/Q2, where they were only 5-9 last season (1-6 Q1, 4-3 Q2) 

Predictions are fine, but last season SLU played 14 Q1/Q2 games.  Teams in the Last Four, Indiana played 22, Wyoming played 15, Rutgers played 20 and Notre Dame played 18.  I don't want to rely on the NCAA Selection Committee to give us a break.  I want SLU to be safely in the tourney at the highest seed possible.  Give me Purdue over Evansville.  If you want to rely on the Committe, so be it.

If we can't win our fair share of Q1/Q2 games, then we don't deserve to be in the NCAA Tourney.  It is hard to win Q1/Q2 games that you don't play.

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6 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Predictions are fine, but last season SLU played 14 Q1/Q2 games.  Teams in the Last Four, Indiana played 22, Wyoming played 15, Rutgers played 20 and Notre Dame played 18.  I don't want to rely on the NCAA Selection Committee to give us a break.  I want SLU to be safely in the tourney at the highest seed possible.  Give me Purdue over Evansville.  If you want to rely on the Committe, so be it.

If we can't win our fair share of Q1/Q2 games, then we don't deserve to be in the NCAA Tourney.  It is hard to win Q1/Q2 games that you don't play.

Kind of an apples and oranges comparison with Indiana, Rutgers, and ND. Using IU as an example, they played 1 Q1 and 2 Q2 games in non-conference play. Their high total is mainly a product of being in the Big 10, where between regular season and tournament play they got 16 Q1 or Q2 games. SLU has put together a great non-conference schedule, arguably the toughest in the conference. By virtue of bigger conferences going to a 20 game schedule, this is about as good as it can get in OOC. To get more Q2 games, the A-10 needs some organic improvement. 

 

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It takes two to tango.  It is getting more and more difficult to get premier Q1 opponents like Purdue or Alabama or Duke to come to your place for a home-and-home or even a two-for-one.  Look at Auburn.  We had to go there and Birmingham to get them to come to us.  Purdue will go to Indianapolis --- not so much Davidson, North Carolina.  Alabama has played Dayton in Cincinnati.  Purdue played Dayton also in Indy a few years back.  Dayton got Kansas' number but that was at an MTE in Orlando.  No one will go to YouDee arena, ditto Chaifetz.  The Bonnies got Clemson in Charleston, SC.  Duke will play you at Barclays or MSG.  Yes, we all want better competition but sometimes it just doesn't work out that way.  Maryland, Providence and Miami won't come here but they will meet us in Uncasville, CT.  

I don't really want the Evansvilles and Central Arkansases and UA-Pine Bluff's of the world either but I understand the difficulty of scheduling.  I'd like to play Mizzou and Illinois every year but that won't happen.  I think we have too many Mo Valley teams right now but that's better than Eastern Illinois or IUPUI in my book.

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1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:

Here is my stance. You can disagree and everything will be fine. Call it apples to oranges if you want.  They toss the ball up at the start of the came and the team with the most points wins.  Seems to me a game is a game.  They all count.  I want this team to maximize the chance for a high seed in the NCAA tourney.  

This is our 'year'.  If anyone doesn't think this year is our shot, well, when will it be.  Quad 4 wins do us no good.  I anticipate Evansville will end up in Q4, with a new coach hired late and a large turnover of a not so good roster. 

"The team needs a buy game or two to gel". Yada Yada.  If we don't come out of the gate sprinting, I will be very disappointing.  We need to build our resume from the start.  No Lindenwood, no Central Arkansas State, no Eastern Illinois, no Evansville.   We need Q1 and Q2 games, wherever we can get them.  We will be playing too many Q3 and Q4 games in conference.  At Selection Sunday, I don't want to hear, the Bills are a 10th seed because they had only (one or two or three) Quad 1 wins.  How many Q1/Q2 games will our A10 brethern provide?   I'm greedy.  This is the year.  Evansville isn't going to help us get us a high seed.

We still have a couple more games to be announced.  Think they will be Q1/Q2?  I don't. 

You are totally ignoring the fact that SLU has to have a certain number home games for season ticket holders / to generate revenue for the program.  That is why they play buy games & is why it matters a lot where "they toss the ball up at the start of the game".

Taking your preference for tougher games to the extreme - If SLU wanted to, it could put together the toughest non-conference schedule in the country.  They could accept buy games from top level teams and play 12-14 Q1 road games in the NC.  However, they can generate more revenue and build the program better with home games.  Not to mention it would be silly to not use our state of the art arena.

 

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Let's look at it from the point of view of the top ranked schools. What do they gain by coming in to play us? Probably not very much, and there is always the risk of losing to us which would not be good to them. So, why do it? What is the incentive to get them here?

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12 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Let's look at it from the point of view of the top ranked schools. What do they gain by coming in to play us? Probably not very much, and there is always the risk of losing to us which would not be good to them. So, why do it? What is the incentive to get them here?

For top-20 schools, maybe not much. But for those outside that, gunning to make the tourney, the Bills are expected to be a tourney team and a Q1 team. Plenty of reason to do a two-year H&H deal.

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