The Bills over RI by 3

[The Wiz]

This post will be a little longer than most spread threads because I have a little more time today and there are a few things to go over...I could start a few threads but instead I will do a mashup and let the Board sort it out. Some of the topics we will discuss are ... How The Bills can still finish 4th in the A10....Future of Chance 2 Dance...Why we lose close games...and of course the Rhody spread thread.

 How The Bills can finish 4th...It looked a lot better a few days ago because we were in control of our own destiny. But contrary to what some fans think, we still have a chance...more than a mathematical chance...to make 4th...It won't be easy and we will need some help from other teams but the good news is that the odds gods are looking favorable on us ...All the outcomes that the Bills need will be in our favor or at worst close to a tossup. Here is what needs to happen...Of course,  the first step is to win the next 2 games...We are favored in this one and we will be favored against VCU...Just win...Step 2....St. B needs to lose the next 2....Step 3.. Day needs to beat Rich.  These are not chronological...all 3 need to happen. Not an easy path ...but not an impossible one either.

Chance 2 Dance...

The Bills ....50%...dn 7 pts

Day.............48%....dn 6 pts

VCU............43%.....dn 4 pt

Dav.............40%.....new

No other A-10 teams were 40% or above.

So what does this mean?  It means the A-10 is fading in terms of a 2nd bid.  The computer has indicated a fair chance for 2 bids most of the season.  Now that door is starting to close not only because of the A-10  fade but because other at-large prospects are on the upswing.  At this point the best chance for 2 bids is if 2 teams from the above list make it to the final A-10 tourney game.

Future of Chance 2 Dance...It has come to my attention that there are a few fans who are unhappy with C2D and would like it removed. This request strikes me as strange but I would appreciate the board's patience for a short timeout to do a quick rant aimed mainly at the dissenters. 

I understand your pain...You don't like C2D.  I will remove C2D if you grant me one request. Here is what I need you to do. First pick out your favorite TV station. After you have chose one, I need you to send them the following note....Dear Station KBKN....I am writing to you in regards to your weather report in particular your long  range forecast ( the one about 2 weeks out).  I don't like it.  Even though I don't know what variables you use or how many there are, I know it needs to go. I don't really know what methodology you use or really care...all I know is when I hear that forecast it is annoying and I know it's not right.

Now in paragraph 2 you need to enclose this vital background information.........

My TV has no off button or channel changer. You can see my predicament.....I hear that report and it is driving me crazy...just stop it...And don't write me back and say stuff like you have other viewers.. I have rights too...after all this is all about me.

Then sign it and when you get the favorable response, just send it to me and I will take care of C2D.  One last item of interest to the dissenters, I just completed the Big 10 Chance 2 Dance...7 teams with at least a  70% Chance 2 Dance and 1 team with at least a 60% chance...Wait, wouldn't that be over a 500% chance  and 8 teams getting in...crazy talk.....If this statement bothers you , stay away from sharp objects.

Rant over

Next up ...Why we lose close games. .. One of the reasons we lose close games is lack of consistency. Let me show you what consistency looks like to a computer...This is a very small sample size and only 1 variable but we will use it just to make a point.  Let's use 2P%...and take 2 games from less than 2 weeks ago.  In those 2 games we shot 49%...a very nice %...a winning %...a % that should have produced 2 wins.  But digging down deeper  we see that the Bills shot 65% against LaS and 33% against Dav...numbers that produced a 1-1 finish instead.  It's not just the numbers or the grades but also the consistency. We have a pretty good report card ...a report card that should have produced more wins. But the numbers weren't consistent.  If the numbers had been more consistent...let's say 49% give or take 1pt every game or 11 TOs  give or take 1 every game   ... lower highs and higher lows...we would currently be 24-5... getting ready to Dance.

So how do you get consistency?...preparation...talent..coachable players. Let's take a page from the play book of the greatest coach I have seen at SLU...Majerus.  Preparation...No one was better prepared than RM...from game plans to getting the players ready...to drilling his principles into those players ... they always knew what to do automatically. ....Talent... he didn't always have the best players but they were skilled ...they could shoot and they knew basketball ....Coachable...probable the most important factor...He taught and they listened until they could execute. Not every player RM recruited was coachable. When they weren't ,he got rid of them quickly and found someone who fit his style..someone who was coachable. By the way , he tried to help them find new places where they would fit in.

When you blow a lead or lose by a few  and have good overall numbers with a pretty good record ...it means you are close...you need one more player to stabilize things or your existing team needs more time to gel. Whatever that last piece is ...it is up to the Coach to figure out what that last piece is that puts you over the top. 

OK...the pregame is over...Time to get to the Rhody game....RI is a B team...The Bills remain at A-... This will be a classic battle of good offense meets good defense...SLU's offense vs RI's defense....a weaker offense than Rich but good around the basket...also one of the worst FT shooting teams we have seen this year. 

Let's look at the report card....

 

 

...................SLU.....................RI.........................SLU.........................RI

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B+......................D-.............................C+............................A-

FG%...............B+.....................B+.............................B..............................A+.. 10th ITN

3P%..............A-.......................C-...............................B-............................B

FT%...............A.......................F-..6th WITN...............................................

Reb...............A-.......................C+..............................A-............................C+

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Off...none.....Def.....none

Down....Off...PPG...3P...Reb.........Def...FG%

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st... unch ...

Stls......Collins....40th....dn

Dou-Dou....Collins...64th...dn

..................Okoro....96th...new

FG%..........Okoro....39th....up

Tot Rebs...Okoro...82nd...new

Off Reb...Okoro...86th...up

FTA/FGA....Linssen...30th...up

 

RI

Blk....Makhell Mitchell....21st

Dou Dou....Makhi Mitchell....64th

 

Injury/ Illness... none

 

Keys to the game.... Can we score against a good defense? The computer says just enough to beat them...There is no room for error in this game. Even though they are a borderline PIG team  they will be trying hard to escape the PIG pen with a win. And of course, as noted above, this game is still important to us.  They have balanced scoring and are fairly deep using up to 9 players with significant minutes (10+ min) ...RI will want to turn this into a slow moving defensive struggle.  The game might be decided at the charity stripe and/or on the boards.

WWN2D2W....This will be tougher than usual but make the slash...47 / 37 / 77 ...TOs 11...no room for errors...Rebs 5+... Either score 70 or hold them to 60.   Keep all RI players to single digit scoring....They can't shoot FTs EXCEPT Sheppard ..don't foul him ...he shoots 82% from the line.

Bottom line...If we can speed up the game ...70+pts or really defend them.. hold them to 60 pts ...we can shear the sheep.

[majerus mojo]

Wiz over the Dissenters by 100

[Old guy]

Very good post Wiz but from my point of view this is what is going to happen:

1. People believe what they want to believe, they look at probability as certainty. When a team is predicted to win a game by 1 the correct way to look at it is that the advantage over the opposite team is not large and that any of the teams can win the game. I hope that you become selectively deaf to the critics or just ignore them.

2. The C2D feature is great, and your discussion of how the next couple of game results by other contending teams will affect our chances is entirely worthwhile. I would very much like to see you continue the C2D feature regardless of what others may say. After all, it is well known that no one can keep everybody else happy.

Thank you for your excellent work, it is excellent.

[BilliesBy40]

Davidson is a virtual lock to make the NCAA tournament. Continuing to put us above them in the C2D has to be trolling at this point.

[billikenbill]

The Wiz, I have great news. You’ll be shuttering C2D as I’ve received the reply from my local station with the response you requested. Message your address and it’s on its way.

It’s Happiness over Frustration by 10 with the demise of C2D!!

[wgstl]

Wiz I have a question regarding the spread. Is something used or put towards how Slu plays on the road in conference? I guess what I’m asking is if I was using numbers to put a system in place, I would add three or four points against Slu because their inability to play well on the road in conference, not just this year, but over the last few years. 
 

I know you have said the home team gets a 4ish point advantage, but I’d think playing slu at home is closer to 6-8

[Taj79]

Rhode Island is a team with talent but just enough off factors to relegate them to near PIG level.  I expect them top iron out every wrinkle and get it together just in time for us.  That's the way I'm trending.

Rhodey has practically led the A10 in transfers these last two years.  The Mitchell twins( Maryland).  Antwan Walker (Georgetown before open transfers).  Malik Martin (Charlotte).  Ismael El-Amin (Ball State).  And Jalen Carey (Syracuse).  All this movement has led to a team that consistently seems to be looking for itself and trying to define roles.  

They start the twins, Jeremy Sheppard, Ismael Leggett and El-Amin.  Three guards with forwards Martin and Walker in reserve with Carey the guard sub along with freshman Sebastian Thomas.  El-Amin and Leggett are the shooters.  Makhel Mitchell is the more low-post traditional big and Makhi Mitchell seems to fancy himself as a three man focusing on wing play.  Both Mitchells are extremely foul prone and volatile.  Put simply, they do dumb things.  Technicals.  Obvious fouls.  Poor shot selection.  If they did decide to concentrate their talents in the paint, look out.   Sheppard is the senior point guard with Carey in relief.  Sheppard can go off but only averages about 3 apg.  So distribution is not a key part of the Ram offense.  And Carey can be a gunner and out of control --- kind of like Nesbitt.  Thomas doesn't really add much to the offense so keeping him that way is fine.

No tonyl does Mahkel lead the Mitchell twins in scoring, he's the better block defender down low.  Mahki is close in ppg but is the better rebounder.  Neither shoot well from the charity stripe; as a matter of fact, they both shoot better from the floor (53% each) than the line (52% each).  Together, they've tried 21 threes making 5 all by Mahkl.  Walker is decent off the bench and has started the last few.  Martin is a similar player style wise.  

In the recent Duquesne game, the color guy noted that for Rhode Island to go, El-Amin is the shooter and must get turned on.  Ismael Leggett is a decent power guard for a freshman and might make a few all freshman teams come A10 honors time.  

The bottom line here is they are big, the biggest team in the A10 I believe.  But they are not that smart with basketball IQ.  Still, this is no laugher.

Going to be interesting to see how soon Schmidt and Company try toi rush Osunniyi back from his current injury, suffered late in the St. Joe's game.  Without him, they could be meat come tournament time.  They won't beat VCU in Richmond and without him in the middle against Richmond ..... who knows.

[AnkielBreakers]

Attaboy Wiz. In a day and time when heroes are flying into the mouth of madness, it is good to see a Billiken doing the same. Everyone wants to jump off the ship in a storm, but the Wiz walks towards the rudder. You have some stones. In fact, do you even sit in a chair? I hope the team takes note and follows your lead.

[johnbj14]

In The Wiz we trust, let’s get a couple wins before DC! 

[A10Ref]

6 minutes ago, johnbj14 said:

In The Wiz we trust, let’s get a couple wins before DC! 

Yup... 3 needs -> team needs to right the ship fast, Travis needs to calm down (my main gripe with his coaching, when he goes crazy on the bench, the team usually tightens up), and we need to stay healthy.

If we string these last two wins together, we will head to DC with a ton of confidence.

This conference is cannibalizing itself. I could be wrong, but I don't think Osunniyi will be back for DC, and who knows what's wrong with Camara for Dayton. I like our chances against either of those teams with said missing pieces. Then it comes down to Davidson/Richmond/VCU... We know how we matchup with Davidson and Richmond, and we'll find out how we matchup with VCU on Saturday.

[Bay Area Billiken]

Win the A10 Tourney for The Wiz!

[The Wiz]

5 hours ago, wgstl said:

Wiz I have a question regarding the spread. Is something used or put towards how Slu plays on the road in conference? I guess what I’m asking is if I was using numbers to put a system in place, I would add three or four points against Slu because their inability to play well on the road in conference, not just this year, but over the last few years. 
 

I know you have said the home team gets a 4ish point advantage, but I’d think playing slu at home is closer to 6-8

First a tip o' the cap to @SluSignGuy for taking  the necessary action to allow the Board to refocus and do what it does best...discuss basketball.

The answer to wgstl is ...each venue has a separate and individual homefield advantage. This year most venues advantage  is  down about 10-30%...SLU has done better than most...down about 8%.  The Fetz is currently at 3.84pts. ....RI has a 2.17pt advantage this year....so to your point the swing from SLU to RI would total about 6 pts. And since the many teams  have a  about 3-4 pt edge at home....a home  and away series would in fact equal about a 6-8 pt swing.

[RUBillsFan]

 

[Matty Light]

6 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

 

So looks like they have us as a 1 in four shot to make the A10 title game, and surprisingly a better than 50% chance to win that game. I wonder why. Desperation as winning is the only path to the Big Dance?

[SluSignGuy]

This thread got cluttered up by discussion of moderation.  I am not deleting these moderation related posts [as it likely would create more disturbance], but I am just moving them into this thread in order to let people focus on basketball in this thread.

[RUBillsFan]

20 hours ago, Matty Light said:

So looks like they have us as a 1 in four shot to make the A10 title game, and surprisingly a better than 50% chance to win that game. I wonder why. Desperation as winning is the only path to the Big Dance?

If you look at it, all the top 5 teams are better than 50% chance to win the title game if they make it there and teams 6 - 14 are all well below 50% to win the game if they make it there.  Basically if SLU ends up in the title game vs a 6-14 team their odds of winning the game are better than 50% (in some cases much better) and there is a like a 33% chance of facing one of those 6-14 teams in the title game.  If SLU ends up in the title game against a fellow 1-5 team, their odds are probably pretty close to 50% because I think team rankings has all of the top 5 fairly close.  SLU's odds are lower than the others only because they have higher odds of finishing outside the top 4 & missing the double bye.

[Matty Light]

4 hours ago, RUBillsFan said:

If you look at it, all the top 5 teams are better than 50% chance to win the title game if they make it there and teams 6 - 14 are all well below 50% to win the game if they make it there.  Basically if SLU ends up in the title game vs a 6-14 team their odds of winning the game are better than 50% (in some cases much better) and there is a like a 33% chance of facing one of those 6-14 teams in the title game.  If SLU ends up in the title game against a fellow 1-5 team, their odds are probably pretty close to 50% because I think team rankings has all of the top 5 fairly close.  SLU's odds are lower than the others only because they have higher odds of finishing outside the top 4 & missing the double bye.

That make some sense. We are essentially the favorite to win 4 out of four, but still behind the teams that only need 3 wins. I wonder how we do H2H against the top 4 seeds. Is that about 1 in 3 if assuming 100% win rate vs. seeds 7-14 and a 67% chance we play a top 4 seed in the title match?

[Bay Area Billiken]

SLU @ URI

Sagarin has SLU as a 3.75 point road favorite, rounded off to 4 points.  In his Recent Ratings, Sagarin has SLU by 3.29, rounded off to 3 points.

Haslametrics has SLU as a 3.55 point road favorite, also rounded off to 4 points.

Thus, The Wiz is right in line with these other predictors.

[The Wiz]

 

From the original post

How The Bills can finish 4th...It looked a lot better a few days ago because we were in control of our own destiny. But contrary to what some fans think, we still have a chance...more than a mathematical chance...to make 4th...It won't be easy and we will need some help from other teams but the good news is that the odds gods are looking favorable on us ...All the outcomes that the Bills need will be in our favor or at worst close to a tossup. Here is what needs to happen...Of course,  the first step is to win the next 2 games...We are favored in this one and we will be favored against VCU...Just win...Step 2....St. B needs to lose the next 2....Step 3.. Day needs to beat Rich.  These are not chronological...all 3 need to happen. Not an easy path ...but not an impossible one either.

 

The steps are correct  just not in chronological order....

In order ...

Step 1...Rich & Bonnies lose...Complete

Step 2...The Bills beat RI 

Step 3 ...Bonnies lose to Rich

Step 4 ...The Bills beat VCU

Step 5... Double Bye

[Old guy]

Team Rankings released their prediction, SLU is expected to win with 1 star of confidence, by a Vegas margin of 2.5. The pregame stats show SLU is superior in offensive stats, and RI is superior in defensive stats.

[Bills71]

Rebound

 

[Bay Area Billiken]

CBSSports.com lists the line as Rhode Island +3, meaning SLU is a 3 point road favorite, Over/Under 135.5. 
 

ESPN.com concurs, SLU -3.0, Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. 

[HoosierPal]

Rhode Island leads the A10 by a wide margin in blocked shots at 6.1 per game.  Our Bills are 9th at 3.2.  The Mitchell twins have 69 and 35, compared to Okoro's Bill's leading total of 36.  We have not done all that well against shot blockers.  One key I will look for is how well we attack the rim.  We all know that missing layups is one of our weaknesses.  For every blocked shot, how many more are altered?

[Cowboy II]

19 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Rhode Island leads the A10 by a wide margin in blocked shots at 6.1 per game.  Our Bills are 9th at 3.2.  The Mitchell twins have 69 and 35, compared to Okoro's Bill's leading total of 36.  We have not done all that well against shot blockers.  One key I will look for is how well we attack the rim.  We all know that missing layups is one of our weaknesses.  For every blocked shot, how many more are altered?

-yep, in addition how do we defend two bigs or how do two bigs defend us? (for them much easier in a half-court set)  - and how limited do our bench minutes get?

[Taj79]

The Mitchell twins are foul prone.  Mahkel has 69 blocks, Mahki has 35.  That is 104 of the teams 164.  Mahkel tends to play like Osunniyi ---- stationed in the restriocted arc lookign to help and block shots.  Going to be incumbent on Okoro to occupy him and get him in foul trouble down low.  Francis needs to bring his "A" power game.