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NET Tracker 2021-22


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i can only assume a pro scout or approved agent has advised javonte accordingly because it makes little sense to me.   hopefully the two year gamble (this year and next) pays off for him losing out on 2 years pro money somewhere else in the world.   it's been posted here javonte isnt really after graduate degrees and such (apparently not a bachelor degree yet), so it would be my assumption he believes the nba is that close.  

i question that as i dont see the nba draft every year stock full of seniors let alone 6 or 7 year seniors (ive lost track how many years javonte's been playing college basketball).   i see one and done's two at most kids getting the guarantee big buck spots.  

hope this pays off for him.  seems like a wonderful young man and he deserves his shot.  

i guess it's all great for us billiken fans as he is a very good billiken,that's fun to watch and makes the billikens better. 

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5 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

I primarily do these analyses to see where SLU stands. As of yesterday, SLU’s NET of 71 yielded the 16th team into the NIT, the last NIT 4 seed, meaning the first NIT game at home.

SLU’s NET improved to 69 after games played last night, 1/4/22.

I don't disagree with any of your analysis, I would just say that for the vast majority of mid majors their NET is irrelevant with regards to NCAA bids since the primary purpose of the NET is to prop up the cartels (aka P5 conferences) and in that regard the NET is working exactly the way it's supposed to. 

Perfect example, last night unranked Marquette hosted then #16 Providence at home and beat the tar out of them, the "NET" result? Providence dropped from 24 to 33 and Marquette jumped from 83 to 57. No one at Providence is losing 1 wink of sleep over the result, why? Not only is the loss now a Q1 loss but when they play Marquette again later this month they will probably still be in the 50s so that's another Q1 win or loss. Providence effectively strengthened their league and their own schedule by LOSING!!! exactly the way the cartels want it. 

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1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

hope this pays off for him.  seems like a wonderful young man and he deserves his shot.  

i guess it's all great for us billiken fans as he is a very good billiken,that's fun to watch and makes the billikens better. 

Right, great news for Billiken fans.

I do think timing wise with the injury he is in a tough spot with regards to beginning his professional career in the fall. With NIL, maybe there is some $ available to him to help close any financial gap, but depending on the opportunities coming off of a torn ACL suffered in late October that may not be a whole lot to begin with. Candidly I thought he was foolish for coming back this season, but the injury puts him in an odd spot come this spring and unfortunately for him I'm not so sure returning isn't his best option.

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3 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

The groupings traditionally are Power 5 (Big XII, Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Pac-12) + 1 (Big East) + 2 (AAC), which as of games played 1/3/22 were the Top 7 in Conference NET.

 

 

The AAC is 8 years old. The NET system is 3 years old. Your calculation is two days old.

The idea that there's a "traditional" P7 that includes the AAC seems generous. In any event, I suppose any such "tradition" will end next year with the departure of Houston, Cincy and UCF. 

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I checked the analysis from last season’s Selection Sunday- Final.  SLU’s NET was 43, which should have easily qualified SLU, put SLU comfortably IN the NCAA Tourney field as an At Large, with the 32nd of 37 at larges, including ahead of NCAA teams 45 Drake, 46 UCLA, 47 Missouri, and 48 Virginia Tech.

70 Michigan State and 72 Wichita State, both well below the cutoff, were gifted NCAA At Large bids at the expense of SLU. 
49 Duke, which would have been the last team IN per the NET, was also OUT, at partially after vague earlier self-exclusion, later rescinded.

In any event my position then was and remains that SLU was snubbed and relegated to the NIT as one of the four #1 seeds.

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50 minutes ago, Compton said:

 

The AAC is 8 years old. The NET system is 3 years old. Your calculation is two days old.

The idea that there's a "traditional" P7 that includes the AAC seems generous. In any event, I suppose any such "tradition" will end next year with the departure of Houston, Cincy and UCF. 

The RPI preceded the NET and was used for years. The AAC is the remnant of the football side of the Old Big East. So no, the inclusion of the AAC is hardly “generous.” It is reality.  But inclusion of the AAC is not essential to seeing what is really happening or to making the conclusion.


If you don’t want to include the AAC, then the Power 5 + 1 (Big East) proves the point even more.  The NET aids the Power 5 + 1, or the Power 5 + 2, take your pick.

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11 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

I checked the analysis from last season’s Selection Sunday- Final.  SLU’s NET was 43, which should have easily qualified SLU, put SLU comfortably IN the NCAA Tourney field as an At Large, with the 32nd of 37 at larges, including ahead of NCAA teams 45 Drake, 46 UCLA, 47 Missouri, and 48 Virginia Tech.

70 Michigan State and 72 Wichita State, both well below the cutoff, were gifted NCAA At Large bids at the expense of SLU. 
49 Duke, which would have been the last team IN per the NET, was also OUT, at partially after vague earlier self-exclusion, later rescinded.

In any event my position then was and remains that SLU was snubbed and relegated to the NIT as one of the four #1 seeds.

NET isn’t used to rank teams for the tournament it’s used to group together teams into the 4 quadrants that are much more important. If you have a low NET it might not mean as much if you have a ton of Q1 wins and vice versa. 

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1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

i can only assume a pro scout or approved agent has advised javonte accordingly because it makes little sense to me.   hopefully the two year gamble (this year and next) pays off for him losing out on 2 years pro money somewhere else in the world.   it's been posted here javonte isnt really after graduate degrees and such (apparently not a bachelor degree yet), so it would be my assumption he believes the nba is that close.  

i question that as i dont see the nba draft every year stock full of seniors let alone 6 or 7 year seniors (ive lost track how many years javonte's been playing college basketball).   i see one and done's two at most kids getting the guarantee big buck spots.  

hope this pays off for him.  seems like a wonderful young man and he deserves his shot.  

i guess it's all great for us billiken fans as he is a very good billiken,that's fun to watch and makes the billikens better. 

A few thoughts:

- I think if last Spring when Javonte was making his decision you had told him that in the first game of whatever league/team he is on he will tear his MCL, I think he would take the college route. NBA contracts are guaranteed. European contracts normally aren't. If he ends up getting hurt in the first game of some mid or lower level European team, he'll be lucky if they pay for his airfare back to the states. He'll have no revenue source and he'll be forced to rehab on his own. I think he's pretty darn lucky to have all the resources of SLU behind him in trying to get through this next year.

- As to his decision about next year, which is really the only decision that matters since what is done is done. What kind of professional contract is he going to be able to get based on his recovery timeline? Will he be able to practice for any team in the spring or summer? Will he be at full strength?  Is there any chance a team pays for all of his living expenses, plus a little extra in NIL money like he could get at SLU? A guarantee like the one SLU can offer seems quite far fetched in the pro ranks for a guy with one and a half good years of college experience and coming off a torn MCL. I think what SLU has to offer is quite appealing.

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Here is the NET Analysis today:

Looking at the 36 NCAA At Large Bids, the breakdown would be:

Power 5:  24 at large bids, 67% of Total At Larges, composed of Big Ten 7, Big XII 6, SEC 6, ACC 3, Pac-12 2.

Power 5 + 1:  29 at large bids, 81% of Total At Larges, with the Big East 5.

Power 5 + 2:  30 at large bids, 83% of Total At Larges, including the AAC 1.

Other conferences getting At Large Bids:  Mountain West 1, WCC 3, C-USA 1, OVC 1.

All of the above conferences additionally would have its Automatic Bid qualifier.   Adding those Auto Bids, the number and percentages of the total bids of 68 are:  Power 5- 29 bids, 43% of the 68 total bids;  Power 5 + 1 - 35 bids, 51% of the 68 total bids;  Power 5 + 2 - 37 bids, 54% of the total bids.

The number of One Bid (Juan Bid) conferences, with 1 Automatic Bid only, is 21, 31% of the entire 68 NCAA field.  Adding the multi-bid below the line conferences, the total is 31 bids, 46 % of the total bids.

One can see in those numbers how the pendulum sways. In 2021, an NCAA Tournament unit was worth $337,141 annual value, applied to units earned by conferences over the previous 6 tournaments.

Conclusion:  This shows what we've always known, that the NET (like its predecessor RPI) aids the Power 5 and the Power 5 + 1.  The NET is a self-perpetuating tool.

SLU with NET 69 is the 16th NIT team, meaning the last #4 seed, meaning at least 1 NIT home game.

 

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40 minutes ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

NET isn’t used to rank teams for the tournament it’s used to group together teams into the 4 quadrants that are much more important. If you have a low NET it might not mean as much if you have a ton of Q1 wins and vice versa. 

Irrespective of the Quads and the claims re the Quads, there are annually about 3 variances per season per a pure following of the NET and the actual NCAA field.  Last season, there were 2, and regrettably, SLU was 1 of the 2.

I've followed the RPI and its successor, the NET, for years, probably for decades.  It is pretty easy to determine what is happening.

If SLU was in the Big East, or if it could get in the Big East, SLU wouldn't have this type of NET problem.  (Winning might be another issue.) A 43 NET SLU team in the Big East would not have been snubbed.

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2 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

If SLU and VCU don't suffer devastating injuries before the season, we'd have three teams in the top 45 right now.  Stuff happens.

This is a great point. Two fluke injuries flipped the conference narrative completely.

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21 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

If you don’t want to include the AAC, then the Power 5 + 1 (Big East) proves the point even more.  The NET aids the Power 5 + 1, or the Power 5 + 2, take your pick.

The AAC just doesn't deserve any special, top-tier grouping. As your analysis shows, the NET doesn't appear to be "aiding" the AAC any more than the Mountain West, C-USA, or OVC, and much less so than the West Coast Conference.

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1 hour ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

SLU's NET remains at 67 despite the Big Win over Iona.  That is disheartening and exposes the NET for what it really is.

SLU is 78 in Pomeroy, 53 in the ESPN BPI.

Iona's NET fell from 47 to 54 with the Quad 1 Loss.

Honestly just getting a Q2 win is the most important part to me. If we can win a lot of close games in the Q1/Q2 areas, our NET may not drastically improve but our resume will. The easiest way we can improve our NET is by dominating the Q3/Q4 teams. For example VCU moved from 64 to 53 after beating LaSalle by 19 and Dayton moved up 15 spots after beating GW by 25.

The goal needs to be to beat Dayton to get another Q2 win for our resume and then run up the score on Fordham, UMass2x, and GW for NET improving purposes.

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6 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

SLU's NET remains at 67 despite the Big Win over Iona.  That is disheartening and exposes the NET for what it really is.

SLU is 78 in Pomeroy, 53 in the ESPN BPI.

Iona's NET fell from 47 to 54 with the Quad 1 Loss.

 

4 hours ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

Honestly just getting a Q2 win is the most important part to me. If we can win a lot of close games in the Q1/Q2 areas, our NET may not drastically improve but our resume will. The easiest way we can improve our NET is by dominating the Q3/Q4 teams. For example VCU moved from 64 to 53 after beating LaSalle by 19 and Dayton moved up 15 spots after beating GW by 25.

The goal needs to be to beat Dayton to get another Q2 win for our resume and then run up the score on Fordham, UMass2x, and GW for NET improving purposes.

The Billikens were favored by 4 and only won by 1.  Doesn’t that factor into the NET?

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14 minutes ago, CenHudDude said:

 

The Billikens were favored by 4 and only won by 1.  Doesn’t that factor into the NET?

That was the betting line - I am not sure how much the betting line enters into the NET figures.

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We shouldn't be worrying about NET. It's an exercise in futility. I don't think even if we went undefeated in the A10, but don't win the tourney, the committee lets us play. ESPN had an article yesterday that 8 big 10 and 8 Beast teams will make the field. That's crazy, but it's likely to be close to that. Bottom line, we've got to win in DC come March. And I think with the further development of Okoro and Nesbitt, we've got a better than good chance of taking the tourney. 

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Looking at the NET from a broad point of view, you find the following principle at work: "The more complex and subjective you (in this case the NCAA) make the rules, the more freedom you have to do as you wish when you apply them." You see the application of this principle just about everywhere you care to look in depth at.

Judging by the prior post from slu72, they already have a pretty good idea in their heads about who will go to the Dance this year.

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6 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

SLU's NET remains at 67 despite the Big Win over Iona.  That is disheartening and exposes the NET for what it really is.

SLU is 78 in Pomeroy, 53 in the ESPN BPI.

Iona's NET fell from 47 to 54 with the Quad 1 Loss.

Two of the teams we played had bad losses yesterday: UAB and SFA.  And the losses we would normally see from the teams a few spots ahead of us didn't happen because those games were postponed. 

It's kind of hard to move up with a Q2 win when so few games are being played.  Bumps that normally would take place in one day are delayed by several days as games play out.

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1 hour ago, CenHudDude said:

Does anyone know?  The NET is a mystery.

The betting line itself does not factor into the NET but the margin of victory does factor into the NET via the efficiency piece. We beat a team ranked 20spots ahead of us by 1 point at home. It doesn’t surprise me that this win wouldn’t help our NET much.

In general, it’s fair to expect that any of our remaining home wins will help our NET much, unless we blow the teams out. We’ll have to do our damage on the road.

 

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1 hour ago, NH said:

The betting line itself does not factor into the NET but the margin of victory does factor into the NET via the efficiency piece. We beat a team ranked 20spots ahead of us by 1 point at home. It doesn’t surprise me that this win wouldn’t help our NET much.

In general, it’s fair to expect that any of our remaining home wins will help our NET much, unless we blow the teams out. We’ll have to do our damage on the road.

 

Resume is more important than NET.  The NET ranking has proved pretty useless among bubble teams last few years. 

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