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NET Tracker 2021-22


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38 minutes ago, WVBilliken said:

Dang, he's 24 next August ..... I'd be surprised unless he's academicly driven and going for MBA or whatever.

I think being injured/ rehabbing during during the months of april-july is his biggest reason to want to play one more season imo

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55 minutes ago, WVBilliken said:

Dang, he's 24 next August ..... I'd be surprised unless he's academicly driven and going for MBA or whatever.

I think he's driven by a desire to have a shot at the NBA.  After his injury, that's not going to happen if he leaves.  He just doesn't have the track record, yet, to warrant a draft pick or being an undrafted signee to a camp.  His only shot is to light it up next season.  So, makes sense to me.

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2 hours ago, bauman said:

I know what if's don't matter but it would sure be nice to have gotten W's against Belmont and UAB, both of which could have very easily happened.  Who knows, maybe with JP we would have added a W against Auburn.

Belmont & UAB losses sting extra because those are both likely NCAA bubble teams.  SLU needs a stellar showing during conference play to get on the bubble.  I think they can do it, but even if they do they'll have a very tough time jumping Belmont and/or UAB in the "eye test" since those teams won at Chaifetz.

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9 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

I think he's driven by a desire to have a shot at the NBA.  After his injury, that's not going to happen if he leaves.  He just doesn't have the track record, yet, to warrant a draft pick or being an undrafted signee to a camp.  His only shot is to light it up next season.  So, makes sense to me.

I also think it will be hard to go to Europe while rehabbing from a knee injury. The timing of Javontes injury stinks for immediate pro prospects but sets him up ok if he wants to play another year in school

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13 minutes ago, wgstl said:

I think being injured/ rehabbing during during the months of april-july is his biggest reason to want to play one more season imo

Maybe, Perkins is in a tough spot. First, without knowing the specific feedback he got from NBA scouts it's impossible to know why he came back this year, was there something specific they told him he needed to work on, were teams telling him he might be drafted in the 2nd round, not at all? Has he gotten any feedback from NBA scouts since the injury? Second, knee injuries can be tricky and true recovery time can vary wildly. What if he comes back to SLU next year and is only ever 70% of what he was? What if he has a setback and can't play until January? It's a lot to consider, I hope whatever decisions he make work out best for him. 

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23 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

Belmont & UAB losses sting extra because those are both likely NCAA bubble teams.  SLU needs a stellar showing during conference play to get on the bubble.  I think they can do it, but even if they do they'll have a very tough time jumping Belmont and/or UAB in the "eye test" since those teams won at Chaifetz.

I think 3 losses is the most we can have in conf to get an at large. 

 

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11 minutes ago, MichaelC said:

Maybe, Perkins is in a tough spot. First, without knowing the specific feedback he got from NBA scouts it's impossible to know why he came back this year, was there something specific they told him he needed to work on, were teams telling him he might be drafted in the 2nd round, not at all? Has he gotten any feedback from NBA scouts since the injury? Second, knee injuries can be tricky and true recovery time can vary wildly. What if he comes back to SLU next year and is only ever 70% of what he was? What if he has a setback and can't play until January? It's a lot to consider, I hope whatever decisions he make work out best for him. 

I did find it interesting that he can begin basic shooting in about a month

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2 minutes ago, jonny karate said:

Didn't Ramsey say Richmond starter avg 24 yrso

Don't know if Rammer said it but I tweeted this yesterday: 

I started out by wondering how old Golden was and then started going through their whole roster.

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1 hour ago, wgstl said:

I think 3 losses is the most we can have in conf to get an at large. 

 

I don't know how we can lose 3 more games, when all of our remaining games are A 10 opponents, given the NET of A 10 teams.  We would have no, as in zero, signature wins.  That doesn't get you into the NCAA.  Our only hope is the Conf. Tournament.

Getting an at large bid with 3 A 10 losses would mean we have 7 losses plus one in the Conf Tour. , 8 losses with no big win to hang our hat on.  that ain't gonna do it.

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Frank has speculated that Javonte could get enough NIL money to make it worth his while to stay.  Think about it- you could make low level European money, and have all your expenses paid (and you don't need to go to Eastern Europe to do it)

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11 minutes ago, Band Legend said:

Frank has speculated that Javonte could get enough NIL money to make it worth his while to stay.  Think about it- you could make low level European money, and have all your expenses paid (and you don't need to go to Eastern Europe to do it)

Good point, I had forgotten about that.

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4 hours ago, WVBilliken said:

Dang, he's 24 next August ..... I'd be surprised unless he's academicly driven and going for MBA or whatever.

He has not yet earned his bachelor’s degree, unless he received it at this semester break. 

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15 hours ago, Band Legend said:

Frank has speculated that Javonte could get enough NIL money to make it worth his while to stay.  Think about it- you could make low level European money, and have all your expenses paid (and you don't need to go to Eastern Europe to do it)

"The Perkolator" branded coffee - good to the last bucket.

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20 hours ago, WVBilliken said:

Dang, he's 24 next August ..... I'd be surprised unless he's academicly driven and going for MBA or whatever.

The average age in the NBA is 26 and change.  I couldn't find the median.  Thinking you can begin at 25 seems overly optimistic.

Don't try, don't succeed.  I get it, but I hope he is using basketball for non-basketball goals as well.  

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SLU's NCAA NET ranking through games played 1/3/22:  SLU 71.

Other A10 NET rankings:  Davidson 42, VCU 67, URI 94, Mason 102, Dayton 106, Richmond 107, St. Bona 113, St. Joe's 122, UMass 147, Fordham 151, Duquesne 230, LaSalle 273, GW 274.

A10 is #9 in Conference NET, has passed the #10 WCC, remains behind the #7 AAC (American) and #8 Mountain West.

Other SLU ratings:  Sagarin 56, ESPN BPI 56, Massey 60, Pomeroy 76, RPI 92.

Comment:  SLU isn't going to get much traction in the NET absent winning big A10 road games against decent A10 opponents, such as this Sat. at St. Bona, also at Davidson.  Protecting the home court is also essential, in addition with no slip ups on the road or neutral (A10 Tourney) against the bottom 6.  Simple, isn't it?  Not.  When you're in a below the Power 5 +1, or +2 like the A10, especially this year's relative mediocre A10, there is no margin for error.  And once you've made your bed, it is difficult to get out of it.  SLU made its bed by those home court losses to Belmont and UAB.

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Per the NET, a whopping 25 of the 36 NCAA At Large bids would go to the Power 5 (Big XII, Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Pac-12), with 4 more going to the Big East and 2 to the AAC, for a Total of 31 of the 36 NCAA At Large Bids to the Power 5 + 2.  

Adding the Automatic Bids, that's 30 NCAA Bids to the Power 5 and 38 (of the 68) to the Power 5 +2.

The WCC (#10 Conference NET) continues to have 4 NCAA bids per the NET:  4 Gonzaga, 31 BYU, 34 USF-CA, and 41 St. Mary's (CA).  I don't believe that will happen.  At least 1 of the 4, probably St. Mary's if all stays as is, will be excluded.  St. Mary's has been snubbed multiple times before.  Long dormant, but former national power USF is more of a feel good story.

The Mountain West (#8 Conference NET) would have 2 NCAA bids:  25 Colorado State and 33 Wyoming.  The Ohio Valley Conference (#21 Conference NET) would have 2 NCAA teams per the NET:  36 Belmont and 47 Murray State, although I do not believe the OVC would actually get 2 NCAA teams.

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18 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

Per the NET, a whopping 25 of the 36 NCAA At Large bids would go to the Power 5 (Big XII, Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Pac-12), with 4 more going to the Big East and 2 to the AAC, for a Total of 31 of the 36 NCAA At Large Bids to the Power 5 + 2.  

Adding the Automatic Bids, that's 30 NCAA Bids to the Power 5 and 38 (of the 68) to the Power 5 +2.

The WCC (#10 Conference NET) continues to have 4 NCAA bids per the NET:  4 Gonzaga, 31 BYU, 34 USF-CA, and 41 St. Mary's (CA).  I don't believe that will happen.  At least 1 of the 4, probably St. Mary's if all stays as is, will be excluded.  St. Mary's has been snubbed multiple times before.  Long dormant, but former national power USF is more of a feel good story.

The Mountain West (#8 Conference NET) would have 2 NCAA bids:  25 Colorado State and 33 Wyoming.  The Ohio Valley Conference (#21 Conference NET) would have 2 NCAA teams per the NET:  36 Belmont and 47 Murray State, although I do not believe the OVC would actually get 2 NCAA teams.

As evidenced by your analysis, the AAC doesn't belong in the same grouping as the P6.

Also, the #3 team in the AAC, Memphis, has a NET of 58, which by no means guarantees an at-large. The "anticipated # of at-large bids + 1 auto-bid" calculation would generally over count as there will be double counting of top ranked teams that win their conference tourneys.

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Memphis’ NET was 51 yesterday morning through games played 1/3/22, when my analysis was made, then later (overnight) dropped to 58 through games played 1/4/22. Memphis’ then NET of 51 would have yielded the 36th and final NCAA at large bid. NET 58 would be OUT, NIT.

Re the Automatic bids, the analysis assumes the top NET team from a conference gets the Auto bid. The auto bid winner is not included in the at large ratio of Power 5 + 2 to the 36 at large bids of 31:36 and 25:36 for the Power 5 itself.
 

The groupings traditionally are Power 5 (Big XII, Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Pac-12) + 1 (Big East) + 2 (AAC), which as of games played 1/3/22 were the Top 7 in Conference NET.

The outliers are the #10 WCC, which per the NET would have 4 NCAA teams, 3 at large, and the #21 OVC, which would have 2 NCAA teams, 1 at large, both through games played 1/3/22. 

 

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