kshoe Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, HoosierPal said: Okay so then some of the low numbers, we lose. Butler -3.6 (64%), SIU -2.3 (59%), LaSalle -2.9 (61%), Rhode Island -1.7 (57%), St Joe -4.1 (66%), Dayton -3 (62%), VCU -2.9 (61%) and St. Bonnie -2.7 (61%). So we go 4-4 in these eight games? (Well I guess Butler and SIU are wins as there are supposed to be 4 conference losses. That would put us 2-4 in the six conference games.) Don’t focus on the particular games, it’s an average for the whole season. Think about it this way, if you are 90% likely to win each game you are obviously a huge favorite in each. If you play 10 such games though you are expected to go 9-1. It’s pointless to focus on which game are you going to win or lose, just understand there is a 10% chance you lose in each game and one of them will likely bite you. Zink and HoosierPal like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLU_Lax Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 21 hours ago, kshoe said: Don’t focus on the particular games, it’s an average for the whole season. Think about it this way, if you are 90% likely to win each game you are obviously a huge favorite in each. If you play 10 such games though you are expected to go 9-1. It’s pointless to focus on which game are you going to win or lose, just understand there is a 10% chance you lose in each game and one of them will likely bite you. I am probably running down the bunny trail a bit on this, but do want to note that if anyone dives too deeply into the numbers that it is not a linear equation on determining the expected record. Kshoe is right in his assessment, but I just wanted to take it to the next nerd level. I believe there is a 35% chance of winning all ten games in the above scenario and a 39% chance to win 9 games (if I remember permutations and probability correctly), so the most likely outcome is 1 loss (but not by much). I show my math below. NERD ALERT: The chance of winning all the games is 90% x 90% x 90%....(and so on 10 times for 10 wins). The chance of winning 9 of ten games is 10% [the chance of the loss] x 90% x 90% x 90% (9 times for 9 wins) then multiply that by 10 (for the number of permutations for WHEN the loss occurs (1st game....2nd game.....10th game). All I am trying to say is that being a 90% favorite does not equal .1 losses. Although you are pretty far down the rabbit hole if you start trying to reverse engineer the predictions and the percentages and begin checking their calculations and math. I will say that I think most of these services/projections are reasonably accurate and reasonably free from improper bias (incl. improper conference bias) and if you accept their probability of a win, the resulting projected record is a reasonably accurate portrayal of what is MOST likely to happen. Zink likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brighton Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Who's Carte'Are Johnson ? https://www.101sports.com/2018/10/22/billikens-return-to-101-espn-looking-to-uphold-the-hype-with-size-and-defense/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 59 minutes ago, Brighton said: Who's Carte'Are Johnson ? https://www.101sports.com/2018/10/22/billikens-return-to-101-espn-looking-to-uphold-the-hype-with-size-and-defense/ Yeah, from our own radio affiliate too. Geez. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeniceMenace Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Brighton said: Who's Carte'Are Johnson ? https://www.101sports.com/2018/10/22/billikens-return-to-101-espn-looking-to-uphold-the-hype-with-size-and-defense/ He’s the brother of Jalen Johnson and Justin Johnson... MattyMo213 likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Just now, VeniceMenace said: He’s the brother of Jalen Johnson and Justin Johnson... The law firm of... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlarry Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 20 minutes ago, White Pelican said: Yeah, from our own radio affiliate too. Geez. Maybe Gus Phillips wrote the article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Carte’Are Johnson..........oh brother. what a reporter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 You can check their others so far here: https://www.a10talk.com/category/blog/ They had Stockard 5th and Lewis 12th, a couple other prominent locals in the A10. The other Gudmundsson was 13th. French was 9th and Bess was 20th, our other top 25 entries. I'm guessing Grady will be #1 and Pipkins second. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiseAndGrind Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, Pistol said: You can check their others so far here: https://www.a10talk.com/category/blog/ They had Stockard 5th and Lewis 12th, a couple other prominent locals in the A10. The other Gudmundsson was 13th. French was 9th and Bess was 20th, our other top 25 entries. I'm guessing Grady will be #1 and Pipkins second. Don't hate Goodwin at 3. Would have probably put him second. A mistake to not have Gordon listed at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SShoe Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, RiseAndGrind said: Don't hate Goodwin at 3. Would have probably put him second. A mistake to not have Gordon listed at all. Actually, Gordon was listed at #21. https://www.a10talk.com/a-10-preseason-top-25-player-countdown-21-carteare-gordon/ RiseAndGrind likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, RiseAndGrind said: Don't hate Goodwin at 3. Would have probably put him second. A mistake to not have Gordon listed at all. It's really the unknown holding him back. Can Goodwin shoot? And keep in mind, the A10 saw less of Goodwin than they could have, with him missing the last 7 games (mostly against teams we played twice, but still). If he can string together a more consistent season from start to finish, show a little more shooting ability, then I think only Grady has a case as a better player. A10 Talk is a pretty solid Twitter follow, by the way. Recommended for all SLU fans. They've been overwhelmingly positive about SLU heading into this season, and they do a good job overall. Edit: Gordon was 21st. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Just now, SShoe said: Actually, I'm fairly certain Gordon was listed somewhere between 20 and 25. 20 was Bess, and 21 was Gordon. You're right, I completely missed that (to be fair, the blog skips from Bess to 22 Funk, 23 Gilyard, 24 Pierre, 25 Jenkins). Not sure why Gordon didn't save on the main site, but I see him in their Twitter feed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Carteare Gordon takes the court for the first time as a Billiken in 54 hours. THIS IS NOT A DRILL!(okay it’s an exhibition so maybe it’s a drill? Fuok it who cares!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgeldmacher Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Poach Martin must be working furiously to flip before that happens. If it doesn't happen, then I'm sure they weren't really interested in him anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 14 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said: Carteare Gordon takes the court for the first time as a Billiken in 54 hours. THIS IS NOT A DRILL!(okay it’s an exhibition so maybe it’s a drill? Fuok it who cares!) never been so pissed to miss an exhibition game before. JohnnyJumpUp and SLUMedBilliken15 like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlebill Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 15 minutes ago, wgstl said: never been so pissed to miss an exhibition game before. My feelings exactly. Anyone trying to periscope this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brighton Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Bills are ranked #50 https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/college-basketball-rankings-1-353-from-kansas-to-no-353-and-an-interesting-fact-on-every-team/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QUAILMAN Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 14 minutes ago, Brighton said: Bills are ranked #50 https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/college-basketball-rankings-1-353-from-kansas-to-no-353-and-an-interesting-fact-on-every-team/ Already discussed in the rankings thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 1 hour ago, cgeldmacher said: Poach Martin This nick name has legs. Like Obamacare eventually he will answer to Poach. So Roy down the road PM will refer to Mizzou coach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlebill Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 What about a radio broadcast? Does ESPN 101 do exhibition games? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Pistol said: What about a radio broadcast? Does ESPN 101 do exhibition games? Normally not - in the past the games start with the first actual game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 12 minutes ago, Littlebill said: I doubt I'll stay the whole game, otherwise I would commit to streaming it from my seat. I could stream for a little while. Littlebill likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikentim Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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