Jump to content

2018-19 season


Recommended Posts

14 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Okay so then some of the low numbers, we lose.  Butler -3.6 (64%), SIU -2.3 (59%), LaSalle -2.9 (61%), Rhode Island -1.7 (57%), St Joe -4.1 (66%), Dayton -3 (62%), VCU -2.9 (61%) and St. Bonnie -2.7 (61%).  So we go 4-4 in these eight games? (Well I guess Butler and SIU are wins as there are supposed to be 4 conference losses.  That would put us 2-4 in the six conference games.)

Don’t focus on the particular games, it’s an average for the whole season.

Think about it this way, if you are 90% likely to win each game you are obviously a huge favorite in each. If you play 10 such games though you are expected to go 9-1. It’s pointless to focus on which game are you going to win or lose, just understand there is a 10% chance you lose in each game and one of them will likely bite you.

HoosierPal and Zink like this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

21 hours ago, kshoe said:

Don’t focus on the particular games, it’s an average for the whole season.

Think about it this way, if you are 90% likely to win each game you are obviously a huge favorite in each. If you play 10 such games though you are expected to go 9-1. It’s pointless to focus on which game are you going to win or lose, just understand there is a 10% chance you lose in each game and one of them will likely bite you.

I am probably running down the bunny trail a bit on this, but do want to note that if anyone dives too deeply into the numbers that it is not a linear equation on determining the expected record.  Kshoe is right in his assessment, but I just wanted to take it to the next nerd level.  I believe there is a 35% chance of winning all ten games in the above scenario and a 39% chance to win 9 games (if I remember permutations and probability correctly), so the most likely outcome is 1 loss (but not by much).  I show my math below.

NERD ALERT:  The chance of winning all the games is 90% x 90% x 90%....(and so on 10 times for 10 wins).  The chance of winning 9 of ten games is 10% [the chance of the loss] x 90% x 90% x 90% (9 times for 9 wins) then multiply that by 10 (for the number of permutations for WHEN the loss occurs (1st game....2nd game.....10th game).

All I am trying to say is that being a 90% favorite does not equal .1 losses.  

Although you are pretty far down the rabbit hole if you start trying to reverse engineer the predictions and the percentages and begin checking their calculations and math. 

I will say that I think most of these services/projections are reasonably accurate and reasonably free from improper bias (incl. improper conference bias) and if you accept their probability of a win, the resulting projected record is a reasonably accurate portrayal of what is MOST likely to happen.

Zink likes this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

You can check their others so far here: https://www.a10talk.com/category/blog/

They had Stockard 5th and Lewis 12th, a couple other prominent locals in the A10. The other Gudmundsson was 13th. French was 9th and Bess was 20th, our other top 25 entries. I'm guessing Grady will be #1 and Pipkins second.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Pistol said:

You can check their others so far here: https://www.a10talk.com/category/blog/

They had Stockard 5th and Lewis 12th, a couple other prominent locals in the A10. The other Gudmundsson was 13th. French was 9th and Bess was 20th, our other top 25 entries. I'm guessing Grady will be #1 and Pipkins second.

Don't hate Goodwin at 3. Would have probably put him second. A mistake to not have Gordon listed at all. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, RiseAndGrind said:

Don't hate Goodwin at 3. Would have probably put him second. A mistake to not have Gordon listed at all. 

It's really the unknown holding him back. Can Goodwin shoot? And keep in mind, the A10 saw less of Goodwin than they could have, with him missing the last 7 games (mostly against teams we played twice, but still). If he can string together a more consistent season from start to finish, show a little more shooting ability, then I think only Grady has a case as a better player.

A10 Talk is a pretty solid Twitter follow, by the way. Recommended for all SLU fans. They've been overwhelmingly positive about SLU heading into this season, and they do a good job overall.

Edit: Gordon was 21st.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, SShoe said:

Actually, I'm fairly certain Gordon was listed somewhere between 20 and 25.

20 was Bess, and 21 was Gordon. You're right, I completely missed that (to be fair, the blog skips from Bess to 22 Funk, 23 Gilyard, 24 Pierre, 25 Jenkins). Not sure why Gordon didn't save on the main site, but I see him in their Twitter feed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said:

Carteare Gordon takes the court for the first time as a Billiken in 54 hours. THIS IS NOT A DRILL!(okay it’s an exhibition so maybe it’s a drill? Fuok it who cares!) 

never been so pissed to miss an exhibition game before.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...