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Billy Ken

Will Spring Sports Play in 2021?

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If soccer, basketball gets pushed to spring will they play with baseball and softball and track???

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30 minutes ago, Billy Ken said:

If soccer, basketball gets pushed to spring will they play with baseball and softball and track???

I think fall sports will move to spring, and winter sports will start late. 

I also think theres a better chance for fall sports to be played than no sports at all next year.

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It would be some extra logistics to manage but I think most fall/winter/spring sports could overlap. It would be easier than trying to play a baseball season into August, for example. 

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2 hours ago, wgstl said:

I think fall sports will move to spring, and winter sports will start late. 

I also think theres a better chance for fall sports to be played than no sports at all next year.

Moving fall football to spring would be difficult.  Every top NFL draft eligible player would opt out.  But if you got to, spring football is better than no football, even with diminished squads.  

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Here is another take on the 2020-21 hoops season. 

NCAA Executive Asks Conferences to Consider Starting Basketball Season Two Weeks Early

Pat Forde  Jul 6, 2020

The NCAA’s highest-ranking basketball executive has floated the idea to conference leaders about accelerating the start of the men’s basketball season, moving it up two weeks to increase scheduling flexibility and get more games played in event of a winter interruption.

NCAA senior vice president of basketball Dan Gavitt told Sports Illustrated on Monday that he has proposed moving season-opening games from Nov. 10 to Oct. 27, with perhaps a corresponding acceleration of practice from the currently scheduled start date of Sept. 29. The goal is for schools to play something closer to a full slate of regular-season games amid what could be an uncertain collegiate school year both academically and athletically, as campuses search for ways to deal with COVID-19 fallout.

“At this point it’s just a concept,” Gavitt said. “But we have presented it to the conference commissioners and the oversight committees. The ball is in their court. It has some utility, adds some flexibility and options with the (academic) calendar changing, which could affect the break period.”

With dozens of schools shutting down campus between Thanksgiving and the start of second-semester courses in January, Gavitt said it is “almost a certainty” that some basketball games scheduled for that window will be canceled. The optics of leaving winter sports teams on campus for six weeks or more while their fellow students are home is an issue, and there are concerns about traveling for several non-conference games during that time. That could result in schools sending their basketball teams home during the break as well, possibly eliminating anywhere from eight to 12 games and truncating the season.

In that scenario, Gavitt’s solution would call for front-loading the schedule with up to four games played per team in that window between Oct. 27 and Nov. 10. (Most schools will avoid competition on Nov. 3, which is election day, in order to give their athletes the opportunity to vote.) Some of the high-profile games subject to being canceled during the winter break might be moved to that late-October, early-November window, or local opponents could be scheduled during that time to limit travel. Playing conference games in that time also could be an option.

“A little more time, rather than less time, makes sense to me,” Gavitt said. “It would be permissive; no one is saying you have to do it. It would be up to the individual institutions or conferences to figure out how to do it.”

Gavitt said he first started sounding out conference leaders about the concept a couple of weeks ago, and response to the idea thus far falls into the wait-and-see category. For now, most high-major athletic departments are fixated on a more immediate (and financially weighty) concern: football and other fall sports seasons. Whether those will start or end on time, and how many games will be played, are all-consuming questions for athletic administrators right now.

What happens in football obviously will affect basketball. Projections are all over the map, ranging from a continued push to kick off on time Aug. 29, to conference-only schedules, to punting the season into the second semester. If football becomes a spring sport for a year, it would free up a television programming window in the fall for basketball—but the chances of that season starting on time would seemingly diminish if fall sports are being postponed.

“It would take some creativity,” Gavitt said of his accelerated season tipoff plan. “It would probably be imperfect from an operational standpoint. But what is going to be perfect this year? Once you start the season, there’s no looking back."

College basketball traditionally is dependent upon two months of non-conference competition to facilitate its NCAA tournament selection procedures. Most ratings metrics, including the NCAA NET Rating, use data from those games to establish a pecking order for strength of the individual conferences. A season with a dearth of non-conference games would create dilemmas for the men ’s and women’s selection committees in terms of at-large bids and seeding.

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I'm putting this post in this thread, rather than in the 2020-21 thread, to keep that one from going off the rails again.  In fairness to Reinert310 and others who commented on my post where I showed some charts that gave me reason to believe that there was some hope for this season happening, I have to show the update.  Sadly, the numbers on the number of deaths chart (see below) have started spiking upward.  I had hoped that the steady downward trends of deaths was a good sign and that, possibly, it meant that things were a little better than some of people were predicting.  Don't know what this means for the upcoming season, although it cannot be good.  However, I thought it was only fair to show this given the debate that occurred.

Covid Chart 3.png

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21 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

I'm putting this post in this thread, rather than in the 2020-21 thread, to keep that one from going off the rails again.  In fairness to Reinert310 and others who commented on my post where I showed some charts that gave me reason to believe that there was some hope for this season happening, I have to show the update.  Sadly, the numbers on the number of deaths chart (see below) have started spiking upward.  I had hoped that the steady downward trends of deaths was a good sign and that, possibly, it meant that things were a little better than some of people were predicting.  Don't know what this means for the upcoming season, although it cannot be good.  However, I thought it was only fair to show this given the debate that occurred.

Covid Chart 3.png

-I applaud your integrity

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1 hour ago, cgeldmacher said:

I'm putting this post in this thread, rather than in the 2020-21 thread, to keep that one from going off the rails again.  In fairness to Reinert310 and others who commented on my post where I showed some charts that gave me reason to believe that there was some hope for this season happening, I have to show the update.  Sadly, the numbers on the number of deaths chart (see below) have started spiking upward.  I had hoped that the steady downward trends of deaths was a good sign and that, possibly, it meant that things were a little better than some of people were predicting.  Don't know what this means for the upcoming season, although it cannot be good.  However, I thought it was only fair to show this given the debate that occurred.

Covid Chart 3.png

This is one of the rarest things I’ve seen on the internet. Huge props to you. 

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It was never my intent to start or participate in an argument.  I just wanted to show the chart (the one I posted a few days ago), because I thought it was a good sign and I desperately want the Billikens to have this season.  However, my point seems to have been diminished by the new data.

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I've been telling friends that this will be without a doubt the best team in my lifetime. And maybe anyone's lifetime who's a Bills fan. My late parents saw the 1948 team and my dad and I were/are long time fans and season ticket holders, but (different eras and styles notwithstanding) I don't think anything can compare to what we've been waiting for and expecting this coming season.

I just hope they can play and somehow I can get in to see it, too. Last I'm gonna say on the subject.

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I see something generally off with this ----- not that it's good or bad --- just off.  Why is this chart acting like a heart monitor?  Up.  Down,  Up.  Down.  Up.  Down all with relative consistency?  I find that consistency odd.  Plus, I'd like to know how this plays into the national average ..... the context.  In 2017, something like 7,800 people died each day in the US.  Are the numbers above added to that or are they a part of that?  So was the total deaths on April 14 still close to 7,800 (with COVID deaths a part of it) or was it 10,178 that day (the usual daily average plussed up with COVID numbers)?  

Not that I care to debate it, just trying to understand context.  I'd also like to know how many people were tested and ther number of positives found on say March 31, 2020, ads opposed to July 15, 2020 ----- because it would seem if you test 100 people on March 31 and find 5 positives, that's 5%.  If you test 100,000 on July 15 and get 5,000 positives, well, that's still 5%.  But the numbers go a lot higher a lot faster if you have increased testing that much or more each day.  The sheer starkness of numbers on the boob tube is sensational so it sells.  But what does it really mean?

No debate, just questions.

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25 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

I see something generally off with this ----- not that it's good or bad --- just off.  Why is this chart acting like a heart monitor?  Up.  Down,  Up.  Down.  Up.  Down all with relative consistency?  I find that consistency odd.  Plus, I'd like to know how this plays into the national average ..... the context.  In 2017, something like 7,800 people died each day in the US.  Are the numbers above added to that or are they a part of that?  So was the total deaths on April 14 still close to 7,800 (with COVID deaths a part of it) or was it 10,178 that day (the usual daily average plussed up with COVID numbers)?  

Not that I care to debate it, just trying to understand context.  I'd also like to know how many people were tested and ther number of positives found on say March 31, 2020, ads opposed to July 15, 2020 ----- because it would seem if you test 100 people on March 31 and find 5 positives, that's 5%.  If you test 100,000 on July 15 and get 5,000 positives, well, that's still 5%.  But the numbers go a lot higher a lot faster if you have increased testing that much or more each day.  The sheer starkness of numbers on the boob tube is sensational so it sells.  But what does it really mean?

No debate, just questions.

I thought this was an interesting question so did a quick search. See the chart below...I chose the week closest to the April 14 date you mentioned. During the week ending 4/11/2020 looks like there were about 20,000 more observed deaths than expected. (79,528 observed compared to an average of 56,258 expected) This doesn't necessarily mean 100% of those 20,000 were from COVID. Just a lot more people died that week than usual. 20,000/7 days in a week gives you ~ 2,800, which tracks pretty closely with the difference you gave above.  You can play around with the chart and search for dates and look more at how the data are compiled and their methodology here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

image.thumb.png.00043661930f1e05a8b1133dd079ac2d.png 

 

 

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22 hours ago, cgeldmacher said:

I'm putting this post in this thread, rather than in the 2020-21 thread, to keep that one from going off the rails again.  In fairness to Reinert310 and others who commented on my post where I showed some charts that gave me reason to believe that there was some hope for this season happening, I have to show the update.  Sadly, the numbers on the number of deaths chart (see below) have started spiking upward.  I had hoped that the steady downward trends of deaths was a good sign and that, possibly, it meant that things were a little better than some of people were predicting.  Don't know what this means for the upcoming season, although it cannot be good.  However, I thought it was only fair to show this given the debate that occurred.

Covid Chart 3.png

One of the weirdest things about this chart is that it is wrong. That end spike was not shown in the underlying data. I couldn’t figure out whether it was right or wrong yesterday, and several articles were citing the number: 1,400. The underlying data was saying 873. Now, today, the same chart is updated to show 873. So, at least it is not a big upward spike yet.

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1 hour ago, Taj79 said:

I see something generally off with this ----- not that it's good or bad --- just off.  Why is this chart acting like a heart monitor?  Up.  Down,  Up.  Down.  Up.  Down all with relative consistency?  I find that consistency odd.  Plus, I'd like to know how this plays into the national average ..... the context.  In 2017, something like 7,800 people died each day in the US.  Are the numbers above added to that or are they a part of that?  So was the total deaths on April 14 still close to 7,800 (with COVID deaths a part of it) or was it 10,178 that day (the usual daily average plussed up with COVID numbers)?  

Not that I care to debate it, just trying to understand context.  I'd also like to know how many people were tested and ther number of positives found on say March 31, 2020, ads opposed to July 15, 2020 ----- because it would seem if you test 100 people on March 31 and find 5 positives, that's 5%.  If you test 100,000 on July 15 and get 5,000 positives, well, that's still 5%.  But the numbers go a lot higher a lot faster if you have increased testing that much or more each day.  The sheer starkness of numbers on the boob tube is sensational so it sells.  But what does it really mean?

No debate, just questions.

It's really just an issue with reporting the data.  There are often delays and some states report on a daily basis, while others on a weekly or even monthly basis.  

It was an eventuality that deaths were also going to tick back up again following the sharp rise in cases since deaths are a lagging indicator by at least 2 or 3 weeks (maybe even a month). Basically you can't have more deaths until you have more cases.  Now, we may not have the same rise in deaths that we had in the spring since a much larger share of cases are in young people, we're better at treatment, etc., but an increase is going to happen (if it's not already).

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On 7/14/2020 at 2:08 PM, Bills71 said:

If anyone knew, they'ed be lying/guessing!

 

Thank you Yogi 😃

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22 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said:

One of the weirdest things about this chart is that it is wrong. That end spike was not shown in the underlying data. I couldn’t figure out whether it was right or wrong yesterday, and several articles were citing the number: 1,400. The underlying data was saying 873. Now, today, the same chart is updated to show 873. So, at least it is not a big upward spike yet.

I notice that too.  As with anything, it's a fluid situation.  It seems like they changed the numbers from that last chart.  It's hard to develop an opinion when you can't even get good numbers to base it on.

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5 hours ago, Taj79 said:

I see something generally off with this ----- not that it's good or bad --- just off.  Why is this chart acting like a heart monitor?  Up.  Down,  Up.  Down.  Up.  Down all with relative consistency?  I find that consistency odd.  Plus, I'd like to know how this plays into the national average ..... the context.  In 2017, something like 7,800 people died each day in the US.  Are the numbers above added to that or are they a part of that?  So was the total deaths on April 14 still close to 7,800 (with COVID deaths a part of it) or was it 10,178 that day (the usual daily average plussed up with COVID numbers)? 

No debate, just questions.

I did not pull numbers and do not care much to (delays in collections make it hard to rely on data and to get it).  That said....I can confidently say that overall mortality should be down.  Until you are closing in on Social Security eligibility, the thing that is most likely to kill you is your car.  If people are driving less....they are dying less in car accidents.  I do not think Do-It-Yourselfers deciding to use a chainsaw for the first time or other in home accidents are spiking enough to fill the car accident gap.  Who knows....I may be wrong.  There has to be an actuary on this board that knows more than me and would have an interesting take.

In short, so many things have changed that it is very hard to mathematically isolate the fluctuations in mortality.  Also....wear your seatbelt.

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Thanks all.

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14 hours ago, SLU_Lax said:

I did not pull numbers and do not care much to (delays in collections make it hard to rely on data and to get it).  That said....I can confidently say that overall mortality should be down.  Until you are closing in on Social Security eligibility, the thing that is most likely to kill you is your car.  If people are driving less....they are dying less in car accidents.  I do not think Do-It-Yourselfers deciding to use a chainsaw for the first time or other in home accidents are spiking enough to fill the car accident gap.  Who knows....I may be wrong.  There has to be an actuary on this board that knows more than me and would have an interesting take.

In short, so many things have changed that it is very hard to mathematically isolate the fluctuations in mortality.  Also....wear your seatbelt.

I am no expert but if the number of cases have risen to record breaking levels which they have, it only stands to reason that mortality rates will rise also regardless of the average age of those getting infected.  I do agree that the reporting of data does complicate the matter.

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If I’m wrong, I’ll own up to it, but I doubt any college sports will be played this year. The hope we had for sports as we’ve known them, which includes fan attendance without limitations, was to shut the economy down through July 4th, and have everyone follow the remediation efforts that we’re all now familiar with. 

Since a July 4th restart scenario wasn’t likely, I hoped we could keep everything shut down through Memorial Day, and maybe we’d get lucky. Once the “liberate states” stuff started, that was likely the end of sports in the USA for ‘20-21.

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38 minutes ago, billikenbill said:

If I’m wrong, I’ll own up to it, but I doubt any college sports will be played this year. The hope we had for sports as we’ve known them, which includes fan attendance without limitations, was to shut the economy down through July 4th, and have everyone follow the remediation efforts that we’re all now familiar with.

I am hoping you are wrong; but my sense is that things are deteriorating rapidly, and the fall semester may turn into a disaster.  So yes, sadly, you may turn out to be right. I've been granted permission from the Dean to do online classes for Fall 2020, and the new schedule just finalized & released yesterday shows that a goodly number of my colleagues are as well.  Still, we should have a better picture of how the "petrie dishes" of college dorms (not to mention the public schools) will ply their effects on the local ER's (both here in STL and nationally) by about the end of September. Then, the flu season may be on tap, along with another round of Corona. The MLB/ NHL reboots will also show us some things about the "bubbles" of team sports.

What a mess; I just never dreamed we would escalate back up so rapidly... I wonder how this will all turn out?

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1 hour ago, DoctorB said:

I am hoping you are wrong; but my sense is that things are deteriorating rapidly, and the fall semester may turn into a disaster.  So yes, sadly, you may turn out to be right. I've been granted permission from the Dean to do online classes for Fall 2020, and the new schedule just finalized & released yesterday shows that a goodly number of my colleagues are as well.  Still, we should have a better picture of how the "petrie dishes" of college dorms (not to mention the public schools) will ply their effects on the local ER's (both here in STL and nationally) by about the end of September. Then, the flu season may be on tap, along with another round of Corona. The MLB/ NHL reboots will also show us some things about the "bubbles" of team sports.

What a mess; I just never dreamed we would escalate back up so rapidly... I wonder how this will all turn out?

Fear not.  Our County Exec has pretty much canceled all Youth (teenage) amateur sports, citing 10-19 young athlete's sporting events as the primary cause of the July increase. (They have all quickly moved games to St. Charles and Jefferson County.  I guess you can't get the virus out there.)  So with this one swift move all will be well in a few weeks.  

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