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Billy Ken

Will Spring Sports Play in 2021?

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22 hours ago, SLU_Lax said:

I did not pull numbers and do not care much to (delays in collections make it hard to rely on data and to get it).  That said....I can confidently say that overall mortality should be down.  Until you are closing in on Social Security eligibility, the thing that is most likely to kill you is your car.  If people are driving less....they are dying less in car accidents.  I do not think Do-It-Yourselfers deciding to use a chainsaw for the first time or other in home accidents are spiking enough to fill the car accident gap.  Who knows....I may be wrong.  There has to be an actuary on this board that knows more than me and would have an interesting take.

In short, so many things have changed that it is very hard to mathematically isolate the fluctuations in mortality.  Also....wear your seatbelt.

Car accident fatalities are up because more people are driving faster with less congested highways.

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7 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Car accident fatalities are up because more people are driving faster with less congested highways.

I've been amazed how bad driving is during this B S. I went south on Broadway from brewery last week to river D P and this truck used the turning lane as his own passing lane all through Carondelet.

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I think it is rage that causing the bad driving. There is very little traffic, nowhere to go, no deadline to get there in a good % of all our lives now so what's the hurry?

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1 hour ago, brianstl said:

Car accident fatalities are up because more people are driving faster with less congested highways.

I believe you. That is ridiculous and just amazingly stupid. 

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6 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

Fear not.  Our County Exec has pretty much canceled all Youth (teenage) amateur sports, citing 10-19 young athlete's sporting events as the primary cause of the July increase. (They have all quickly moved games to St. Charles and Jefferson County.  I guess you can't get the virus out there.)  So with this one swift move all will be well in a few weeks.  

I don’t get people b*tching about youth sports being shut down. If professional sports aren’t actually playing games right now, why should youth sports games be happening?  Youth sports are very very far from “essential”, so if they’re contributing at all the the spread (even if not the main contributor), it makes sense to shut them down.

I do agree it is ridiculous that they’re just moving games to St. Charles or JeffCo.

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Our national response reminds me of the overall attitude about drinking and driving.

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On 7/17/2020 at 11:05 AM, Taj79 said:

I see something generally off with this ----- not that it's good or bad --- just off.  Why is this chart acting like a heart monitor?  Up.  Down,  Up.  Down.  Up.  Down all with relative consistency?  I find that consistency odd.  Plus, I'd like to know how this plays into the national average ..... the context.  In 2017, something like 7,800 people died each day in the US.  Are the numbers above added to that or are they a part of that?  So was the total deaths on April 14 still close to 7,800 (with COVID deaths a part of it) or was it 10,178 that day (the usual daily average plussed up with COVID numbers)?  

Not that I care to debate it, just trying to understand context.  I'd also like to know how many people were tested and ther number of positives found on say March 31, 2020, ads opposed to July 15, 2020 ----- because it would seem if you test 100 people on March 31 and find 5 positives, that's 5%.  If you test 100,000 on July 15 and get 5,000 positives, well, that's still 5%.  But the numbers go a lot higher a lot faster if you have increased testing that much or more each day.  The sheer starkness of numbers on the boob tube is sensational so it sells.  But what does it really mean?

No debate, just questions.

I read a couple months back that many hospitals don’t report new info on Sundays (some don’t on Saturday either?), so when you look at daily graphs, you’ll get these weird up and down spikes. Smoothed graphs or ones that bin longer timeframes take care of this issue, but aren’t always ideal for other reasons.

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4 hours ago, RUBillsFan said:

I don’t get people b*tching about youth sports being shut down. If professional sports aren’t actually playing games right now, why should youth sports games be happening?  Youth sports are very very far from “essential”, so if they’re contributing at all the the spread (even if not the main contributor), it makes sense to shut them down.

I do agree it is ridiculous that they’re just moving games to St. Charles or JeffCo.

I acknowledge your opinion but totally disagree.  

Let's keep hands off the bar hopping 20 - 29 year old's and their still legal softball leagues, right, who have three times the increase in incident rates since late June as does the 10 -19 group and oh by the way, can vote.  Let's blame the teenagers, who yes are equally irresponsible out in society, but it isn't because of the sports.  It's because their parents/guardians haven't set the right example.  The episode Page cited with a HS + football player causing 14 others to be quarantined was because the player was out party hopping with his buddies over July 4.  The player and several of his buddies all tested positive.  Who set up this party and who chaperoned it?  The incident was not because of youth sports.  That group contracts the virus with or without sports.  The number count is the same with or without sports.  Page has missed the mark and is looking for a scape goat. 

We have friends whose teenage son contracted the virus while working at a golf course.  There is no talk of shutting down golf courses.  (Too much $$.)  If we want to protect our teens, let's eliminate them from the work force.

I am done b*tching about what I feel was a blatant political move.  Let's get back to hoops.  And I apologize for a political rant on a basketball forum.

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1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:

I acknowledge your opinion but totally disagree.  

Let's keep hands off the bar hopping 20 - 29 year old's and their still legal softball leagues, right, who have three times the increase in incident rates since late June as does the 10 -19 group and oh by the way, can vote.  Let's blame the teenagers, who yes are equally irresponsible out in society, but it isn't because of the sports.  It's because their parents/guardians haven't set the right example.  The episode Page cited with a HS + football player causing 14 others to be quarantined was because the player was out party hopping with his buddies over July 4.  The player and several of his buddies all tested positive.  Who set up this party and who chaperoned it?  The incident was not because of youth sports.  That group contracts the virus with or without sports.  The number count is the same with or without sports.  Page has missed the mark and is looking for a scape goat. 

We have friends whose teenage son contracted the virus while working at a golf course.  There is no talk of shutting down golf courses.  (Too much $$.)  If we want to protect our teens, let's eliminate them from the work force.

I am done b*tching about what I feel was a blatant political move.  Let's get back to hoops.  And I apologize for a political rant on a basketball forum.

Help me contract tracing experts. How do we know Hoosier’s friends son caught it at a golf course. Did he get it from someone at the course who was positive? Was the kid  totally isolated between work and home? I want to believe that doing stuff outside is relatively safe. 

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12 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

I acknowledge your opinion but totally disagree.  

Let's keep hands off the bar hopping 20 - 29 year old's and their still legal softball leagues, right, who have three times the increase in incident rates since late June as does the 10 -19 group and oh by the way, can vote.  Let's blame the teenagers, who yes are equally irresponsible out in society, but it isn't because of the sports.  It's because their parents/guardians haven't set the right example.  The episode Page cited with a HS + football player causing 14 others to be quarantined was because the player was out party hopping with his buddies over July 4.  The player and several of his buddies all tested positive.  Who set up this party and who chaperoned it?  The incident was not because of youth sports.  That group contracts the virus with or without sports.  The number count is the same with or without sports.  Page has missed the mark and is looking for a scape goat. 

We have friends whose teenage son contracted the virus while working at a golf course.  There is no talk of shutting down golf courses.  (Too much $$.)  If we want to protect our teens, let's eliminate them from the work force.

I am done b*tching about what I feel was a blatant political move.  Let's get back to hoops.  And I apologize for a political rant on a basketball forum.

I'm totally with you Hoosier. Page completely missed the mark in blaming kids under the age of 18 for the spread of the virus when it's clearly the group 20-39 that is back in the bars that has lead to the increases.

In my opinion, what Page in shutting down youth sports and others that want to shut down the universities/ grade schools fail to recognize is what happens to people when these activities are taken away. When a 17 year old junior in high school is told he can no longer play football this year, does Page think he just goes home and sits in his basement every evening and avoids human contact? No, he now has nothing to do, nothing to motivate him and he hangs out with his friends. It could be as benign as that and all we have to fear is he'll spread the virus to his friends and not his teammates. Or, he could be like most 17 year olds when they are bored; they start to find trouble, or trouble finds them. The rise in violence all over St. Louis is not an accident this summer. Think about all those stories we've heard over the years from people saying that sports kept them off the streets and out of jail.

It's the same principle for shutting down the universities. Do people really believe that if classes are online, all these 18-22 year old kids are just going to study at home and never venture out into society? Heck no, they are going to go to parties with their old high school classmates and friends around time. They are going to go to bars, etc. then they are going to come back to their parents' houses and spread the virus to them.

There are certainly no easy answers to any of this but the "shut it all down" crowd really needs to realize that Americans aren't going back to full lock-down mode again and sometimes organized activities are going to be safer long-term than taking away everything and then saying don't hang out with anyone else.

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Everyone make sure to vote Mark Mantovani on August 4th. The region is desperately in need of quality leaders. And to make this Billiken related, he sat a few rows in front of me throughout this past season.

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1 hour ago, TheChosenOne said:

Everyone make sure to vote Mark Mantovani on August 4th. The region is desperately in need of quality leaders. And to make this Billiken related, he sat a few rows in front of me throughout this past season.

I Think Mark is a Billiken season ticket holder. That’s reason enough to vote for him. 

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The death rate for this disease in the college aged kids is near zero. Average death for this is higher than national average. 84 to 83. Sports should absolutely go on. This country should go on. If you have conditions that make you part of the 1% who can be severely affected by this disease, stay home. 

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2 hours ago, TheChosenOne said:

Everyone make sure to vote Mark Mantovani on August 4th. The region is desperately in need of quality leaders. And to make this Billiken related, he sat a few rows in front of me throughout this past season.

SLUH grad - at least they taught ethical thinking 🤔

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2 hours ago, TheChosenOne said:

Everyone make sure to vote Mark Mantovani on August 4th. The region is desperately in need of quality leaders. And to make this Billiken related, he sat a few rows in front of me throughout this past season.

all politics are local, but local politics aren't political here?:)

MM got my vote, went to H S with him was always nice guy.

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1 hour ago, almaman said:

all politics are local, but local politics aren't political here?:)

MM got my vote, went to H S with him was always nice guy.

My bad, I forgot about the no politics policy. I just feel strongly about this Billiken basketball season ticket holder and don’t want St. Louis County to waste this do-over. I can self ban myself the rest of the week as my penance.

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1 hour ago, TheChosenOne said:

My bad, I forgot about the no politics policy. I just feel strongly about this Billiken basketball season ticket holder and don’t want St. Louis County to waste this do-over. I can self ban myself the rest of the week as my penance.

no need. I was goofing on the no politics as I find it kind of silly.

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On 7/19/2020 at 3:44 PM, TheChosenOne said:

My bad, I forgot about the no politics policy. I just feel strongly about this Billiken basketball season ticket holder and don’t want St. Louis County to waste this do-over. I can self ban myself the rest of the week as my penance.

-wow, this week flew past, seemed like only a couple of days

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