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Putting this season in perspective


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45 minutes ago, Crewsorlose said:

8-1 is a great start, and a top 4 finish in the A-10 seems possible and not far-fetched. If the Bills can somehow end up at 10-2 OOC, and 11-5 in conference, it's quite likely that an NCAA bid could come our way. There's a lot of season left to play, but it's possible. 

Imagine what that would do for our program. First, to finish top 4 it will mean some great victories and some very hyped games at Chaifetz. Fans will sprout up, and the bandwagon will need an extension. Second, it will pave the way for next year. There's a lot of left before we can talk about a 2020-21 roster, but what we know so far is that Jacobs and Collins are taking PT away from our one senior, Weaver. So of the 9 or 10 guys that play, we'll be losing our 9th or 10th man

 Imagine the hype going into next season if the Bills return their top 8 from a tourney team? Consensus 1st place in the A-10? Possible pre-season top 25? Preseason POY for Goodwin or French? And imagine how Ford will be able to leverage that on the recruiting trail? 

The present tastes great, but the future smells fantastic. We could be moving into a golden era of Billiken hoops!

not to be debbie downer, but it will only take one cheerleader.

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16 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

not to be debbie downer, but it will only take one cheerleader.   one bad decision by a player

Seemingly pointless correction by me but something that grinds my gears. I know no malicious intent meant though 👍

One thing that encourages me beyond 2021 is that we already have pieces of the puzzle for the next 3 years. Obviously next years team will be good, but Yuri, Jacobs, Jimerson, Bell, Hargrove being around after that will hopefully allow us to "reload" instead of "rebuild". Something we haven't really had at SLU. Good job to Ford and staff so far

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3 minutes ago, The Valley Sucks said:

Need to split kstate and Auburn. Win the last 2 non con at home that puts us 11-2. 13-5 in the conference puts us 24-7 would it be enough?

Probably depends on who we beat. If we are 24-7 with wins over Auburn in Birmingham and either home or @ Dayton I would say maybe.  If our best win is K State or a team like Richmond, probably not. 

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6 minutes ago, The Valley Sucks said:

Need to split kstate and Auburn. Win the last 2 non con at home that puts us 11-2. 13-5 in the conference puts us 24-7 would it be enough?

Split at the very least. 
 

If we beat auburn and lose to kstate, we can afford to lose more conf games, beat state but lose to auburn, we have to be on point in conf play.  
 

 

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29 minutes ago, The Valley Sucks said:

Need to split kstate and Auburn. Win the last 2 non con at home that puts us 11-2. 13-5 in the conference puts us 24-7 would it be enough?

http://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team=Saint+Louis&year=2020
 

that’s a fun website I found where you can plug in different game results and get a projection for where would be in the net rankings/NCAA tournament seeding. Basically we have to win against Auburn or have a nearly flawless conference season. 

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9 minutes ago, bills10 said:

http://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team=Saint+Louis&year=2020
 

that’s a fun website I found where you can plug in different game results and get a projection for where would be in the net rankings/NCAA tournament seeding. Basically we have to win against Auburn or have a nearly flawless conference season. 

Lol I said we beat auburn, and H against UD with just 4 losses(5 on the season) and it says we still don’t make it 

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11 minutes ago, bills10 said:

http://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team=Saint+Louis&year=2020
 

that’s a fun website I found where you can plug in different game results and get a projection for where would be in the net rankings/NCAA tournament seeding. Basically we have to win against Auburn or have a nearly flawless conference season. 

Perhaps this is the answer to what @Clock_Tower was asking @The Wiz about in the A-10 forecast thread.

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6 minutes ago, wgstl said:

Lol I said we beat auburn, and H against UD with just 4 losses(5 on the season) and it says we still don’t make it 

Yeah not too favorable for us unless you include conference tourney. Win one game and they project us to be in 

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18 minutes ago, bills10 said:

Yeah not too favorable for us unless you include conference tourney. Win one game and they project us to be in 

I don't know about this thing - If THEORETICALLY SLU finishes non con 12-1 with wins over Auburn, K State, and Belmont, NO bad losses while going 14-4 in conference (@RI, VCU, @Dayton, @RIch,) and beating Dayton at Chaifetz gets us into the tournament 100% of the time. According to this, we'd be the 5th team out. 

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4 minutes ago, Littlebill said:

I don't know about this thing - If THEORETICALLY SLU finishes non con 12-1 with wins over Auburn, K State, and Belmont, NO bad losses while going 14-4 in conference (@RI, VCU, @Dayton, @RIch,) and beating Dayton at Chaifetz gets us into the tournament 100% of the time. According to this, we'd be the 5th team out. 

But if the Bills are good enough to do all of that, why have them losing to VCU?

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9 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

But if the Bills are good enough to do all of that, why have them losing to VCU?

I was just moving things around. Point is, with that resume that shouldn’t be outside of the Bubble 

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When you have a ranking system that produces seemingly illogical, or unintelligible ratings, this is a system that basically allows the NCAA to do whatever they decide they want to do. Not a system based upon winning games against opponents.

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Here is my take ....

It will take a minimum of 24 wins.....assuming we lose to Aub and win against KSU and Bethune...we finish 10-2...No I didn't forget Mville...I don't count Div 2 because the NCAA doesn't count them...which means we need 14 wins ...if we go 12-6  that would be 10+ 12 =22 ...which means you need 2 A10 tourney wins to have a chance at   a bid.  One of the problems  in making the calculation is ...you don't know how many at large bids there will be. If during the conf tourneys you start having upsets...ie  Bost Coll wins the ACC torneyor Tex A&M wins the SEC tourney ,  this decreases the number of at large bids. In a "normal" year...24 wins gets you a 60% chance of getting in...a few  upsets and you are below 50%.  So for those that want to be doubly sure ...you can use 25 wins....Sometimes when there are few upsets , 23 will work....but in general I would use 24 as a minimum.

I will let you all fool with the different combos to get to 24 or 25 wins.

Bottom line...No matter how you do it ...it won't be easy....Just win...one game at a time.

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Funny thing Wiz, the 10-2 record for the ooc is what I have been talking about in prior posts. As far as the conference goes, I think there will be 3 difficult games to win (2 against Dayton, and 1 against VCU), so I see a possible 15-3 record in conference. Possible, not certain. The conference record of 15-3 may mean winning all winnable games and losing all the hard ones, or winning one or more of the hard ones and losing one or more of the games we should win. Anyway you look at these numbers, if they come to pass (big if), the overall record without counting the A10 tournament could possibly be 25-5, that is what I think is possible this year. A few more wins in the A10 tournament and we might have a pretty good chance for the dance with or without winning the A10 tournament.

It must be said that this thinking requires no sidelining injuries, and as we all know we already have two good players sidelined. So, we may wind up with a more modest record for the year, and we may not make the dance after all. We will see what happens in time, but this promises to be a one hell of a season, at least it looks that way to me. And, I agree it will be difficult to do and require a lot of hard work from the team.

Go Bills!

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