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The Wiz

The Bills over Valp by 9

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First , I will make a few points and then we will get down to game analysis

1.  Great game against FGCU...point of information....FGCU has fallen to D+ after their loss to us.

2. As I mentioned in the post game analysis (see FGCU spread thread for more info)...we had 9 TOs ....anytime you are in single digits it is outstanding and while it is just 1 game....there have been whole seasons where we haven't been in single digits. This will be an important stat this season ... keeping the TOs down. 

3. Foul shooting....The last 2 games we have made 10 fowl shots ( apologies to the spelling police)...just enough for a chicken sandwich each game....Suggestion...offer a deluxe chicken sandwich for 15 fowl shots made...maybe that will push our  FT% up .

4. Off topic....I stumbled across this stat while preparing this report.....Jalen Johnson ..scores 22pts  w/ ULL and is 89th ITN

OK ...On to the game.

We have moved up to a grade B....Valp is a C....Plus the spread is bigger this game.....so we got this game...right?  Now the warning ...Valp  beat Toledo . You say, so what...Toledo is a B team ...same as us...Valp won at home by 2...a game they may have lost if they had been away.  In addition , the grades are not as meaningful as they will be at game 8 (full set of data at that point) However it is a current measure along with the predictive tool which is a warning...let up and we lose.

With that said , we should win this game. We have a better offense....something I couldn't say much last year and a better defense....though we are down a little on shot defense. I will let you all discuss the why of shot defense....My take on it is we have played 2 good shooting teams....especially 3s (40%+)....that will not happen with Valp...they are an OK shooting team but should not go over 40%  on 3s.

Let's take a look at the report card.....

..............................SLU...............................VAL.............................................SLU....................................VAL

..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................A-.................................B....................................................B-...................................C

FG%..........................B.................................B-.. ............................................ ...C....................................C-

3P%..........................A-................................C+ ..................................................C-...................................C-

FT%...........................C-...............................A-.............................................................................................

Reb............................B................................B-.....................................................A...................................B+

 

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb ..

In actual offensive rebs were 11th ITN

TOs by The Bills....3rd ITN....Opp TOs...29th ITN

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...66th

Blks.....French.........35th

Assts...Collins....8th....slu72 are you reading this?

Valp

PPG......Fazekas..64th....23pts

Stls.....Sackey....66th

Assts...Sackey...14th

Bottomline.....We need to win the battle on the boards...this will be our biggest challenge so far...advantage The Bills....Likewise on TO differential (the difference between our TOs and theirs)....again our toughest challenge so far...advantage The Bills.....Foul shooting ...pray that it isn't a close game that depends on FTs (not that I'm chicken)...I think our regular shooting will make up for  any FT deficit....    Fazekas....Hold this guy to 14 pts......Whoever Sackey guards....protect the ball    Our slash...48/38/ 63....63?...I can dream

Any let up or cold spell and this team is right back at us....If we play like we did against FGCU...we win

Go Bills

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I do not see why we should doubt we will play the same way we played against FGCU. Likewise I cannot see why we cannot expect our team to improve the way they play. After all FGCU was the very first real game of the season. I assume the level of jitters will go down for at least some of the freshmen during this coming game.

Another issue is that the way we appear to be playing this year depends a lot less on straight defense, as we have done traditionally. Our defense is great, of course, but this year we have some offensive capacity based upon full court playing and constant pressing. This Shaka's havoc style of play depends more upon the ability to disrupt the opposing team play plan and flow, causing turnovers, and pestering them constantly. That is what I expect for the next game, and hopefully for all the following games as well.

I hope Jacobs loosens up and gets more aggressive in his play, same for Hankton. I hope to see Hargrove playing, and better play from Bell. Go Bills!

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Wiz..the problem with one game analytics is that it is not indicative of who the real person to stop is. Javon Freeman-Liberty is their star not Fazekas . He is the one who we must stop to win. 

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11 minutes ago, billikenblue said:

Wiz..the problem with one game analytics is that it is not indicative of who the real person to stop is. Javon Freeman-Liberty is their star not Fazekas . He is the one who we must stop to win. 

Freeman-Liberty and Fazekas can both be a problem.  If we put Thatch on Freeman-Liberty, I don't know if we have anybody who can guard a 6'7 flamethrower like Fazekas.  

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Sure we do, French, Bell, Hankton, Perkins and Hargrove can and will have to all guard Fazekas

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Freeman-Liberty had a SLU offer at one point. Valpo also has Donovan Clay, a freshman from Alton, on the roster.

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1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said:

Freeman-Liberty and Fazekas can both be a problem.  If we put Thatch on Freeman-Liberty, I don't know if we have anybody who can guard a 6'7 flamethrower like Fazekas.  

Fazekas is 6'7"/6'8" and they also start McMillan at 6'8".  Divide up between Bell and French.? Whomever has Fazekas has to follow him out to the Arc. Fazekas may be an assignment for Goodwin.   It will be interesting to see how Ford matches up, and how he starts.  Ford did comment that he doesn't necessarily start his five best, he starts the five he needs to start.

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2 hours ago, billikenblue said:

Wiz..the problem with one game analytics is that it is not indicative of who the real person to stop is. Javon Freeman-Liberty is their star not Fazekas . He is the one who we must stop to win. 

The reason I mentioned Fazekas is because while he can go inside or outside .  he is Valpo's only real outside threat...12 of his 23 pts came from outside the arc ...4 of 10 (there's that 40 % number again )...The difference here vs the first 2 games  is he is a single threat vs multiple outside threats in the other 2 games. ....Freeman is definitely a player we will have to deal with...which is why in the original post I warned this game won't be a cake walk. Valpo is susceptible to being worn down as they don't have as much depth as we do.

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I was going to help you out with your analysis of Valpo but it's obvious my contributions to this board aren't appreciated. See ya. 

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3 minutes ago, bbtds said:

I was going to help you out with your analysis of Valpo but it's obvious my contributions to this board aren't appreciated. See ya. 

wah.....

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10 minutes ago, bbtds said:

I was going to help you out with your analysis of Valpo but it's obvious my contributions to this board aren't appreciated. See ya. 

Don't give up so easily bbtds, you need a thick hide to post here. I will always be happy to see any other sources of statistical analysis and modelling being posted if this is what you mean by  "helping you."

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35 minutes ago, bbtds said:

I was going to help you out with your analysis of Valpo but it's obvious my contributions to this board aren't appreciated. See ya. 

 

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On 11/7/2019 at 10:50 AM, bbtds said:

I was going to help you out with your analysis of Valpo but it's obvious my contributions to this board aren't appreciated. See ya. 

what in the world

Valpo hasn't beaten SLU since 1982 and has never beaten SLU in St. Louis. What is there to talk about?

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6 minutes ago, Littlebill said:

what in the world

Valpo hasn't beaten SLU since 1982 and has never beaten SLU in St. Louis. What is there to talk about?

Too late bbtds has left the building.

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To anyone interested, teamrankings just published the Vegas implied expected scores for tomorrow's game, as follows: SLU 70, Valpo 61. We are favored by 9 pts.

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13 hours ago, Old guy said:

To anyone interested, teamrankings just published the Vegas implied expected scores for tomorrow's game, as follows: SLU 70, Valpo 61. We are favored by 9 pts.

70-61=

giphy.gif

9

You're right old guy it is 9.

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Oh my, why is everyone so Negative and crabby?We had a great first game. 

i was very impressed by the foundation we have to build from from the first game. Very pleasantly surprised :)

I’m ecstatic for this year. AND! My husband an I are expecting again so I’m happy that I’ve already made one game and will make another. Hopefully I can make quite a few this year. It’s definitely harder than it used to be,

as always, I LOVE being a Billikens fan! 
 

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Just now, BilliKitty said:

Oh my, why is everyone so Negative and crabby?We had a great first game. 

i was very impressed by the foundation we have to build from from the first game. Very pleasantly surprised :)

I’m ecstatic for this year. AND! My husband an I are expecting again so I’m happy that I’ve already made one game and will make another. Hopefully I can make quite a few this year. It’s definitely harder than it used to be,

as always, I LOVE being a Billikens fan! 
 

Congrats on the baby!  that is so awesome.  

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Thanks, living the dream! 😊

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15 minutes ago, BilliKitty said:

Oh my, why is everyone so Negative and crabby?We had a great first game. 

i was very impressed by the foundation we have to build from from the first game. Very pleasantly surprised :)

I’m ecstatic for this year. AND! My husband an I are expecting again so I’m happy that I’ve already made one game and will make another. Hopefully I can make quite a few this year. It’s definitely harder than it used to be,

as always, I LOVE being a Billikens fan! 
 

what a voice of reason? Baby make 3?

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1 hour ago, Old guy said:

My God! Dlarry you too can do math. Tell me, did you use your fingers or did you do it inside your head?

@gobillsgo, I'm wondering why you responded to Old Guy's post, "Troll."  Our billikens.com convention is that blue font is supposed to indicate that the poster is making a tongue-in-cheek or playfully sarcastic comment.  Dlarry, who the post was directed towards, got it and liked the post.  There was no malice on Old Guy's part to warrant being considered a troll because of this post.

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10 minutes ago, almaman said:

what a voice of reason? Baby make 3?

It is! I’ve got a (1yo) boy and a (3yo)girl and this one is the tie breaker :) 

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19 minutes ago, BilliKitty said:

It is! I’ve got a (1yo) boy and a (3yo)girl and this one is the tie breaker :) 

Zone Defense is in your future!

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