The Wiz Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 I think this spread is closer than a lot of people expected it to be. The actual variable spread is 5-7pts. in favor of FSU....allowing for a 3 pt margin of error...favorable bounce , good reffing ..or not ...the spread could be as close as 2 pts....one 2 footer that drops or a couple of FTs. So how does this game stack up against the other top games we have played ...........regular grade....................adjusted for home /away advantage Butler.........A....................................................A- Hou............A-...................................................A Fl St...........A.....................................................A S Hall.........B+...................................................A- So FSU = Hou in terms of difficulty with But and SH slightly behind...Reg grade is on a neutral court. So this means that this will be one of the top games of the year....as the year goes on the grades may change....We won't really know our toughest game until the season is over. Let's take a look at the report card and see what we are dealing with. ................................SLU..............................FSU.............................................SLU.............................FSU ..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF............... PPG.........................F+...................................B+.................................................A..................................B-. FG%..........................D...................................B-.................................................B+.................................C 3P%..........................D+..................................D..................................................A.................................C... FT%...........................F-....3rd worst ITN......A......................................................................................... Reb............................B+................................C+...............................................B-...................................A+...6th ITN Top 100 ITN Stls Goodwin ...23rd.....Forrest....25th Blks....Gordon ...68th...Koumadje...79th FG%.....Koumadje..........49th...62.9% So our offensive grades went up a little (except FT) Defense slipped a little but still great....def reb improved too which will be important this game. WWN2D2W.......This is a scoring team...averaging over 81pts /game....They have 4 regs shooting 49% 51% 51% 63%....in addition they are a great FT team....their A vs our F- in FTs doesn't bode well.. Their defense on paper is just average BUT....they are good at forcing errors and keeping the opponent to 1 shot /possession.. We need to hold them to 70pts or less. The good news is we have established the trend of playing to the competition. This will work in our favor. This should be a close game the whole way....What can go wrong? If we start to turn the ball over....blowout......No 16-22 TOs...need to keep it at 12...and the differential needs to be in our favor....3 in our favor gives us a good chance to win. Finally we need to have a decent slash...which means we have to make the 2s ...the easy ones...2 footers and fast breaks. ...also make some FTs...I know it's a struggle to hit 70% but there is no excuse for shooting in the 40s or 50s.....shooting below 60% will probably mean a loss. Bottom line...This game is very winnable....It will be played on neutral ground which will be a big help. My numbers show this team to be equal to Hou (especially against us)...and we battled Hou to the final seconds with a chance to win. This game will be about great offense against great defense....The unstoppable force against the immovable object. If we play FSU like we played NCC in the 2nd half ...we win. Go Bills Spoon-Balls likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUBillsFan Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 22 minutes ago, The Wiz said: Bottom line...This game is very winnable....It will be played on neutral ground which will be a big help. I'm not sure I'd call Saint Louis playing Florida State in Florida purely neutral. I understand both teams will be playing outside their home gyms so there will be some level of neutrality. However, I'm guessing the vast majority of fans in attendance will be pro-FSU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 13 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said: I'm not sure I'd call Saint Louis playing Florida State in Florida purely neutral. I understand both teams will be playing outside their home gyms so there will be some level of neutrality. However, I'm guessing the vast majority of fans in attendance will be pro-FSU. They might be but don't forget Florida/FGCU plays in the second game. I imagine that both those fan bases will be behind the boys in blue, especially Gator fans. SLU_Nick likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBL_Bills Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Something I've always wondered. What contributes most to a home court advantage? Surely the crowd plays some sort of role, meaning a non-neutral crowd on a neutral court will be slightly more like a home game. But do the actual physical attributions of the court count more? Background behind the net, weird reflections from a particular light, etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SShoe Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, GBL_Bills said: Something I've always wondered. What contributes most to a home court advantage? Surely the crowd plays some sort of role, meaning a non-neutral crowd on a neutral court will be slightly more like a home game. But do the actual physical attributions of the court count more? Background behind the net, weird reflections from a particular light, etc? Pomeroy did some analysis on this a few years back. IIRC, he attributed it mostly to the refs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 29 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said: I'm not sure I'd call Saint Louis playing Florida State in Florida purely neutral. I understand both teams will be playing outside their home gyms so there will be some level of neutrality. However, I'm guessing the vast majority of fans in attendance will be pro-FSU. Sunrise Fl is 454 miles from Tallahassee...farther than St. Louis to Columbus OH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 The game is at the BB&T Center, home of the NHL Florida Panthers, end of the expressway out of Fort Lauderdale before you hit Alligator Alley to the west coast of Florida. A part of the Sawgrass Mills shopping complex. Good info/take by 05 --- have to believe all the Gators fans will back the visiting Bills so that would work a little in our favor. Ours is the first game of the doubleheader so will Florida and/or Florida Gulf Coast folks com ein early and support us? Kind of doubt it. But its certainly not around the corner from FSU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, Taj79 said: The game is at the BB&T Center, home of the NHL Florida Panthers, end of the expressway out of Fort Lauderdale before you hit Alligator Alley to the west coast of Florida. A part of the Sawgrass Mills shopping complex. Good info/take by 05 --- have to believe all the Gators fans will back the visiting Bills so that would work a little in our favor. Ours is the first game of the doubleheader so will Florida and/or Florida Gulf Coast folks com ein early and support us? Kind of doubt it. But its certainly not around the corner from FSU. Our game is at 1:30 and gators play at 4. My guess is the two games were sold as a package. Hopefully that lends to having gator fans in the building early Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 JGood and Isabell seem to be finding their groove. I'm hopeful. Littlebill likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Chaifetz has a home in Miami. Team is heading there this afternoon/evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlarry Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, SShoe said: Pomeroy did some analysis on this a few years back. IIRC, he attributed it mostly to the refs. I don’t remember the article but I would bet the refs are influenced by the crowd. its probably a combo of a lot of stuff. From the crowd noise and refs to being able to sleep in your own bed and have your favorite pre game lunch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlebill Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, The Wiz said: Sunrise Fl is 454 miles from Tallahassee...farther than St. Louis to Columbus OH It is in the same state - if FGCU played Kansas anywhere in the state of Kansas, it wouldn't be neutral slufanskip likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Backdrops make a bit of a difference as well. Not so much for D1 players as it does for HS and small college players but the sight lines are different from where you practice and play the most. I can understand the refs being the biggest factor, shouldn't be that way but they're human and can be coerced/biased. I also recall some players, especially guards, saying dribbling on unfamiliar courts can be a challenge. I know the old Celtic teams used to get criticized a lot by visiting teams that the Celts knew the parquet's dead spots and took advantage of them. Of course that was a floor laid over a sheet of ice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matty Light Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 I would think rims and backboards would be a key factor. If you are on your home floor, you should have a good feel how much give the backboard and rim will have. The away team will figure it out eventually but the home team has that knowledge coming into the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Littlebill said: It is in the same state - if FGCU played Kansas anywhere in the state of Kansas, it wouldn't be neutral Right. It might not be home court advantage, but it will be home state advantage. I'm sure, though, that those are not all that close, statistically. Familiarity, comfort, and confidence play a significant factor in home court advantage, I suspect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyRican Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, HoosierPal said: Chaifetz has a home in Miami. Team is heading there this afternoon/evening. Delray Beach I thought. It’s right next to Box’s bungalow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyRican Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 I grew up 15 minutes from Sunrise and most of my high school graduating class went to Florida State. There will be a lot more Seminoles in the stands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 We are 1-11 all time versus Florida State. Time to start tipping that scale our way. Anyone see any of the old games v FSU in the Metro Conference? Last meeting was 1/23/1982. @billiken_roy, you were there right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 13 minutes ago, HoosierPal said: We are 1-11 all time versus Florida State. Time to start tipping that scale our way. Anyone see any of the old games v FSU in the Metro Conference? Last meeting was 1/23/1982. @billiken_roy, you were there right? no that game was in Florida. i was but a poor student that had a fulltime job and hadnt traveled outside the two state area my entire life. checkerdome game was January 14. i was there with with about 800 of my good friends. we all had first row seats. only about 6 of us were in the student section. lost by double digits HoosierPal likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 -there are a bunch of tickets in all sections remaining, the seats in the upper deck are not being sold, so not sure how big a crowd there will be -the bigger issue, of course, is FSU who has 10 players averaging over 10 mpg, average 80.8ppg, and of those 10 players only 3 are listed as under 6'5 which I thought might indicate shooting issues for their opponents but their opponents shoot 43.2% while our opponents shoot 39.9% (however I am not making a quality of opponent assessment), FSU is +7.2 rebounding where we are +5.3, if the block stat can be believed we have more blocks than they do, assists and turnovers are about the same between us, as mentioned they shoot 75.6% from the line versus our 58.3%, they have shot 258 from 3 where we have shot 193 and the difference in make % is not much on 3's, they have 13 more offensive rebounds on the season than we do, they shoot 53.9% from 2pt where we shoot 47.1% and FSU opponents shoot 50.6% from 2pt while ours shoot 45.8% -their leading scorer, Kabengele, 6'10, averages 12.4ppg and 4.5rbg in 18.5 minutes, that's impressive and has 6 blocks for the season, Thatch is listed with 5 blocks in 16 less minutes for the season to date, Kabengele has 27 fouls on the season where Thatch has 22 -this is a great opportunity, let's win it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 2 hours ago, HoosierPal said: Chaifetz has a home in Miami. Team is heading there this afternoon/evening. Same Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 19 minutes ago, billiken_roy said: no that game was in Florida. i was but a poor student that had a fulltime job and hadnt traveled outside the two state area my entire life. checkerdome game was January 14. i was there with with about 800 of my good friends. we all had first row seats. only about 6 of us were in the student section. lost by double digits I remember being at an FSU game at The Checkerdome, sitting as Roy notes, right behind the basket, when the Ekker coached Billikens blew a 7 point lead with ~30 seconds left, and lost in regulation. Those Billikens could not handle the FSU press. We would have gone out on the court to help, if only we could. We were that close to the action. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bills71 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 3 hours ago, The Wiz said: Sunrise Fl is 454 miles from Tallahassee...farther than St. Louis to Columbus OH Sorry Wiz, normally I love your posts and understand your posts, but what the hell does Columbus OH have to to with anything?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bills71 said: Sorry Wiz, normally I love your posts and understand your posts, but what the hell does Columbus OH have to to with anything?? He's saying that the site of this game is pretty far from FSU's campus, so even though it's in the same state, it's not as much of a home game as you'd think. The Wiz likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsBeliever!!! Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 This is a must win if we want to have a chance at an auto-bid. Let go Bills! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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