Loy over The Bills by 10

[The Wiz]

General Outlook....I am not going to discuss the TO issue ...at least not here.  If you want to follow that ...check  the thread..."The  Wiz and the SLPD" on the board. 

For this post , I would like to talk about point spreads.  Point spreads  are most commonly used in the betting world. But in the analytical world, they are used as a measuring device, like a ruler or a tape measure.  I am always amused when the spread is off some board members start to complain about the computer being broke or it doesn't know what it's doing.  When it draws up the forecasted spread , it is reviewing all the data of all the teams and assessing where The Bills are in the D1 universe.  If the spread is off on the downside (we do worse than expected)  we under preform and the computer looks for the reason. On the upside, when we overperform(do better than expected) then the computer looks for what went right. Imagine going into a hardware store and buying a 4ft board. When you get home , you measure the board with the tape measure you have had for years and the board  is only 3 ft long.  Would you blame the tape measure...would you say it was   faulty or would you use it as a tool to understand that the store may have under performed and given you a too short board.  Currently we have been under performing...which sets up a downward trend. The computer job is to spot those trends and locate where the issues are in the data.  It is the job of the coaching staff to try and fix it and make changes... it is the job of the message board to discuss the fixes and changes( in a civil manner). 

Let's take a look at the game

Game Preview....Loy come in as a B team The Bills are on the bottom as a C- team.  While the game spread is big this is not a auto win for Loy.  Loy has some weaknesses ..if we exploit them we can win. One weakness is they shoot poorly from the FT line...another big weakness is poor 3P defense...That could play into our strength. They are an F team when defending the 3.  We are a B+ team from the arc. In our last game it lined up like this ...a  B+ team shooting against an F team and we finish with a C+...not the outcome you would hope for. At the FT line, Loy came through with a 60%...unfortunately , we shot a horrible 42%...we need to do better on the slash to win. Finally, the TO spread rears its head one more time.  We turned them over 9 times ...not great but better than we have been doing recently.  But we had 14 TOs which led to a negative 5 TOs...an 11 pt swing in a 7 pt Loy win.  Match them on TOs and we're back in this game.

Let's take a look at this game's report card....

Report Card.... 

The card is positive....2 up and 1 down......The good news  is we were up in 2 Off categories...the bad news  is we recorded our 1st F on the card....of course the real bad stat continues to be opp TOs...F-...14th W ITN

.................SLU............Loy................SLU.........................Loy

...........................OFF..........................................DEF.............

PPG..........D+..................C-..................F+...........................B

FG%..........D+.................B....................D-............................A

3P%...........B+..................C+................D+...........................F

FT%..........B.....................D-.....................................................

Reb...........D.....................C+..................D...........................B-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....3P%...FT%....Def....none

Down.........Off....none......Def....PPG

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

 Min /gm...Jimerson ...43rd...dn

Loy

Ast...Norris...65th

FG%...Adelekun...63rd

Blks...Rubin...17th

Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills....None

Loy....None

Keys to the Game.......Stop Alston and Watson....Watson is their 3P guy and Alston is their inside guy. We did a good job on Alston the last time we played the Ramblers.  Not so much on Watson who scored 24 pts including over 70% from the arc (5-7). The Bills need to make 3s and FTs...Last time we played Loy,  we shot a below average 34.6% from the arc and only slightly better from the FT line...42%...Last game we actually had too many TOs...14...that needs to come down. Don't dribble into their shot blocker ...Rubin...17th ITN.

WWN2D2W...Target slash...48/40/75....Hold Loy to 70 pts....Match Loy on TOs....Hold Watson to 12 pts....Alston to 10...Beat Loy on 3P% and FT%...Out score them from the arc. Hold Rubin to 1 blk....limit Norris to 2 FTAs

Bottom line....If we can match them on TOs and make the slash, we could ramble off with a win.

[billikenbill]

Some random thoughts:

1. Would like to see Meadows at the point for 30-32 mins. which limits Medley to 8-10. He’s just not a productive PG at this point.

2. Parker has got to get his decision-making under control. Granted, he’s our only one on one threat, but he just can’t throw up anything to the rim. If it’s not there, keep the ball moving.

3. Hoping Van Bussell is now the first back-up to EZ. We need his energy on the floor. Bruce is just too weak to consistently compete in the paint. If he knows he’s the backup, maybe he stops fouling so much.

4. Get Curcic on the floor for a 3-4 min. stretch each half and see if he can knock down some threes. I like the fire he plays with and his shot mechanics are excellent. Looks like a pure shooter and not just a streak shooter.

5. EZ has got to stop fouling. He’s got to stay on the floor for us to have a chance. Sat. we get off to a great start, he commits a touch foul, goes to the bench, and UMass starts its rally back.

[Soderball]

10 hours ago, The Wiz said:

General Outlook....I am not going to discuss the TO issue ...at least not here.  If you want to follow that ...check  the thread..."The  Wiz and the SLPD" on the board. 

For this post , I would like to talk about point spreads.  Point spreads  are most commonly used in the betting world. But in the analytical world, they are used as a measuring device, like a ruler or a tape measure.  I am always amused when the spread is off some board members start to complain about the computer being broke or it doesn't know what it's doing.  When it draws up the forecasted spread , it is reviewing all the data of all the teams and assessing where The Bills are in the D1 universe.  If the spread is off on the downside (we do worse than expected)  we under preform and the computer looks for the reason. On the upside, when we overperform(do better than expected) then the computer looks for what went right. Imagine going into a hardware store and buying a 4ft board. When you get home , you measure the board with the tape measure you have had for years and the board  is only 3 ft long.  Would you blame the tape measure...would you say it was   faulty or would you use it as a tool to understand that the store may have under performed and given you a too short board.  Currently we have been under performing...which sets up a downward trend. The computer job is to spot those trends and locate where the issues are in the data.  It is the job of the coaching staff to try and fix it and make changes... it is the job of the message board to discuss the fixes and changes( in a civil manner). 

Let's take a look at the game

Game Preview....Loy come in as a B team The Bills are on the bottom as a C- team.  While the game spread is big this is not a auto win for Loy.  Loy has some weaknesses ..if we exploit them we can win. One weakness is they shoot poorly from the FT line...another big weakness is poor 3P defense...That could play into our strength. They are an F team when defending the 3.  We are a B+ team from the arc. In our last game it lined up like this ...a  B+ team shooting against an F team and we finish with a C+...not the outcome you would hope for. At the FT line, Loy came through with a 60%...unfortunately , we shot a horrible 42%...we need to do better on the slash to win. Finally, the TO spread rears its head one more time.  We turned them over 9 times ...not great but better than we have been doing recently.  But we had 14 TOs which led to a negative 5 TOs...an 11 pt swing in a 7 pt Loy win.  Match them on TOs and we're back in this game.

Let's take a look at this game's report card....

Report Card.... 

The card is positive....2 up and 1 down......The good news  is we were up in 2 Off categories...the bad news  is we recorded our 1st F on the card....of course the real bad stat continues to be opp TOs...F-...14th W ITN

.................SLU............Loy................SLU.........................Loy

...........................OFF..........................................DEF.............

PPG..........D+..................C-..................F+...........................B

FG%..........D+.................B....................D-............................A

3P%...........B+..................C+................D+...........................F

FT%..........B.....................D-.....................................................

Reb...........D.....................C+..................D...........................B-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....3P%...FT%....Def....none

Down.........Off....none......Def....PPG

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

 Min /gm...Jimerson ...43rd...dn

Loy

Ast...Norris...65th

FG%...Adelekun...63rd

Blks...Rubin...17th

Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills....None

Loy....None

Keys to the Game.......Stop Alston and Watson....Watson is their 3P guy and Alston is their inside guy. We did a good job on Alston the last time we played the Ramblers.  Not so much on Watson who scored 24 pts including over 70% from the arc (5-7). The Bills need to make 3s and FTs...Last time we played Loy,  we shot a below average 34.6% from the arc and only slightly better from the FT line...42%...Last game we actually had too many TOs...14...that needs to come down. Don't dribble into their shot blocker ...Rubin...17th ITN.

WWN2D2W...Target slash...48/40/75....Hold Loy to 70 pts....Match Loy on TOs....Hold Watson to 12 pts....Alston to 10...Beat Loy on 3P% and FT%...Out score them from the arc. Hold Rubin to 1 blk....limit Norris to 2 FTAs

Bottom line....If we can match them on TOs and make the slash, we could ramble off with a win.

I agree with your spread call. I thought you were way too generous to us in the UMASS game.

 

It's the job of the message board to call for failed coach's metaphorical head. FIRE TRAVIS FORD!

[Soderball]

1 hour ago, billikenbill said:

Some random thoughts:

1. Would like to see Meadows at the point for 30-32 mins. which limits Medley to 8-10. He’s just not a productive PG at this point.

2. Parker has got to get his decision-making under control. Granted, he’s our only one on one threat, but he just can’t throw up anything to the rim. If it’s not there, keep the ball moving.

3. Hoping Van Bussell is now the first back-up to EZ. We need his energy on the floor. Bruce is just too weak to consistently compete in the paint. If he knows he’s the backup, maybe he stops fouling so much.

4. Get Curcic on the floor for a 3-4 min. stretch each half and see if he can knock down some threes. I like the fire he plays with and his shot mechanics are excellent. Looks like a pure shooter and not just a streak shooter.

5. EZ has got to stop fouling. He’s got to stay on the floor for us to have a chance. Sat. we get off to a great start, he commits a touch foul, goes to the bench, and UMass starts its rally back.

1. Medley is the worst pg we have ever had and needs to move on to future endeavours, which I wish him good luck in.

2. Parker has to take attempts, noone else can since Dalger is gone.

3. SVB sucks and Zhang is much better on the rebound and touch around the rim and holding position on D

4. Curcic should be playing 12-20 mins a game because he can shoot and the PGs are trash anyway

5. Ezewiro fouls intentionally to get out of the game.

What team are you watching?

[Lord Elrond]

One thing I noticed was we managed fewer Field Goal Attempts against UMass (55 to UMass’s 61) and Davidson (56 to Davidson’s 65). Is the fact that one team is able to get more field goal chances of another team a stat that can be used to measure overall defensive effectiveness, or is it more a by-product of other stats and doesn’t mean that much in and of itself? On the face, it seems logical that if you end up with more attempts to score than your opponent, your defense was better than your opponent, but the more I think about it the more it seems like maybe not. I am curious to see what others thought, including of course the great, all knowing computer of @The Wiz. 

[Taj79]

I watched Loyola go into Richmond and give VCU a game.  I was impressed because I don't think much of Loyola, Watson and Valentine.  I figured VCU's athleticism would overpower them just as it did us.  VCU was favored by 5.5 and the win by 7 allowed me to make some money.  But Loyola hung really tough.  Adelekun led Loyola with 14.  Loyola, just like us, had no answer for Bamisile and his 25.  

We don't do well on the road and we've already lost to these guys.  Not good.

[billikenbill]

2 hours ago, Soderball said:

1. Medley is the worst pg we have ever had and needs to move on to future endeavours, which I wish him good luck in.

2. Parker has to take attempts, noone else can since Dalger is gone.

3. SVB sucks and Zhang is much better on the rebound and touch around the rim and holding position on D

4. Curcic should be playing 12-20 mins a game because he can shoot and the PGs are trash anyway

5. Ezewiro fouls intentionally to get out of the game.

What team are you watching?

I said Medley was unproductive. Isn’t that what you are saying?

[wgstl]

If slu keeps it within 10 I’ll reverse my stance on Ford and start a burner account. That’s how sure I am that it will be a blowout 

[CenHudDude]

40 minutes ago, wgstl said:

If slu keeps it within 10 I’ll reverse my stance on Ford and start a burner account. That’s how sure I am that it will be a blowout 

I don’t think you will be getting much of an argument from anyone here on that take, but I would hope that The Wiz’s computer knows more than we do.  I would like to see it be competitive.

[slu72]

Curcic is a keeper. Play him or lose him to the portal. Kid can shoot, he’s strong, and hoops savvy. I’d even try him at the point. I’d bet he’s done nothing his entire life but play bb. He strikes me as the Euro kid who has been drilled in bb skills. Of course, Travis prefers athleticism, but he shouldn’t be discounting kids with good basic skills and smarts. Play him! 

[wgstl]

18 minutes ago, slu72 said:

Curcic is a keeper. Play him or lose him to the portal. Kid can shoot, he’s strong, and hoops savvy. I’d even try him at the point. I’d bet he’s done nothing his entire life but play bb. He strikes me as the Euro kid who has been drilled in bb skills. Of course, Travis prefers athleticism, but he shouldn’t be discounting kids with good basic skills and smarts. Play him! 

I agree but he's likely going to the portal regardless. 

[Adman]

I like Curcic. Has a nice shot, is smart and has great energy. But let's be realistic. He's not quick enough; gets beat off the ball on D and won't beat defenders off the ball on O.

3-4 minutes per half.

[JohnnyJumpUp]

25 minutes ago, slu72 said:

Curcic is a keeper. Play him or lose him to the portal. Kid can shoot, he’s strong, and hoops savvy. I’d even try him at the point. I’d bet he’s done nothing his entire life but play bb. He strikes me as the Euro kid who has been drilled in bb skills. Of course, Travis prefers athleticism, but he shouldn’t be discounting kids with good basic skills and smarts. Play him! 

Only time he needs the ball in his hands is when he is shooting. He lacks both skill and confidence when handling the point.

[cgeldmacher]

40 minutes ago, slu72 said:

Curcic is a keeper. Play him or lose him to the portal. Kid can shoot, he’s strong, and hoops savvy. I’d even try him at the point. I’d bet he’s done nothing his entire life but play bb. He strikes me as the Euro kid who has been drilled in bb skills. Of course, Travis prefers athleticism, but he shouldn’t be discounting kids with good basic skills and smarts. Play him! 

Every year, and I mean every single year, guys on this board latch onto one guy who has not gotten much playing time, but has hit a few three pointers when he's gotten in.  Then, that guy becomes the next Larry the Legend, and the only reason he's not an NBA prospect is that the kid is not getting minutes.  Have you ever seen a kid who is a walk on come off the bench in garbage time and hit two 3-pointers and the home crowd goes nuts?  Curcic has about the same amount of evidence in his favor as those walk-ons.  I'm not saying Curcic can't play, but there's a reason a coach who has everything on the line right now is not playing him.  Could Travis be wrong?  Sure.  But does that mean that we know for sure that this kid is a "keeper?"  No.  I agree that we should give him some more time to see what he can do, but I also know we don't have nearly enough information to be drawing long term conclusions about this kid.

[billiken_roy]

1 hour ago, slu72 said:

Curcic is a keeper. Play him or lose him to the portal. Kid can shoot, he’s strong, and hoops savvy. I’d even try him at the point. I’d bet he’s done nothing his entire life but play bb. He strikes me as the Euro kid who has been drilled in bb skills. Of course, Travis prefers athleticism, but he shouldn’t be discounting kids with good basic skills and smarts. Play him! 

he had a nice game saturday.   but he falls into the highmark rule, better outscore your man.   his defense isnt near the top of the chart.   i will say this, he is a decent athlete.   he dunks in pregame layups.   he did play point guard in the early games in the year and my memory was he wasnt an improvement on meadows and medley.   

ford's love for athletes is befuddling.   he does nothing to take advantage of any athletic talent.   once again we casually bring the ball down the floor and do nothing with it.   many say we dont press well that is why we rarely do it.   i say, if you dont practice it, it wont be good.  so a self fullfilling resuilt, we are not a good play fast team. 

 i am convinced the team plays video games at practice because i sure dont see fundamentals or knowledge of the game getting any better.  i find it hard to believe there is any focus on mistakes or aspects to improve on.   

[wgstl]

1 minute ago, billiken_roy said:

he had a nice game saturday.   but he falls into the highmark rule, better outscore your man.   his defense isnt near the top of the chart.   i will say this, he is a decent athlete.   he dunks in pregame layups.   he did play point guard in the early games in the year and my memory was he wasnt an improvement on meadows and medley.   

ford's love for athletes is befuddling.   he does nothing to take advantage of any athletic talent.   once again we casually bring the ball down the floor and do nothing with it.   many say we dont press well that is why we rarely do it.   i say, if you dont practice it, it wont be good.  so a self fullfilling resuilt, we are not a good play fast team. 

 i am convinced the team plays video games at practice because i sure dont see fundamentals or knowledge of the game getting any better.  i find it hard to believe there is any focus on mistakes or aspects to improve on.   

All Crucic has to do is tell Ford he's a 6'6 wing and he'll start the next game. 

[slu72]

Curcic was raised in euro ball. Euro coaches know they don’t have athletic players like the USA. So they stress D, fundamentals, muscle ball, and 3 point accuracy. Give Curcic the chance and he’ll be a solid player. 

[VeniceMenace]

3 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

he had a nice game saturday.   but he falls into the highmark rule, better outscore your man.   his defense isnt near the top of the chart.   i will say this, he is a decent athlete.   he dunks in pregame layups.   he did play point guard in the early games in the year and my memory was he wasnt an improvement on meadows and medley.   

ford's love for athletes is befuddling.   he does nothing to take advantage of any athletic talent.   once again we casually bring the ball down the floor and do nothing with it.   many say we dont press well that is why we rarely do it.   i say, if you dont practice it, it wont be good.  so a self fullfilling resuilt, we are not a good play fast team. 

 i am convinced the team plays video games at practice because i sure dont see fundamentals or knowledge of the game getting any better.  i find it hard to believe there is any focus on mistakes or aspects to improve on.   

One of the video games must be called “Assault the 3 PT Shooter”

[The Wiz]

8 hours ago, Lord Elrond said:

One thing I noticed was we managed fewer Field Goal Attempts against UMass (55 to UMass’s 61) and Davidson (56 to Davidson’s 65). Is the fact that one team is able to get more field goal chances of another team a stat that can be used to measure overall defensive effectiveness, or is it more a by-product of other stats and doesn’t mean that much in and of itself? On the face, it seems logical that if you end up with more attempts to score than your opponent, your defense was better than your opponent, but the more I think about it the more it seems like maybe not. I am curious to see what others thought, including of course the great, all knowing computer of @The Wiz. 

There are many ways to measure FGA frequency.  Let's start with a simple one.....FGA...Dav 65  SLU 56  = 9.....TOs... Dav 3 ...SLU..12 = 9.... FGA...UMass   61...SLU...55...= 6....TO  UMass  7...SLU  12 = 5....You can see the pattern... TO's= extra opp Poss = extra FGA

Of course ,  I like the TO spread  I use because it converts  the spread into points and you can really see the affect the TOs have on the game.  If you will allow me to plagiarize myself from the post "The Wiz and the P-D" here is what I wrote..."TO spreads affect point spreads.  This is different from the stat that is labeled points off  TOs whereby you take possession of the ball and you score on a TO.  The magic number in a TO spread is 2.25 pts.   This calculation takes into account not just points that could be scored on a TO but the lost opportunity from the team that turned it over.  The rough breakdown is  the the opponent gets 1.25pts for the TO and the team that lost the ball loses an "opportunity point".  The numbers are based on the teams shooting percentages and generally vary between 2 and 2.4 pts.  But generally it gravitates to around 2.25. "        In the Mass game multiplying the 5 TOs by 2.25 = the actual game spread.  In the Dav game  multiplying the 9 TOs by 2.25 =20.25 pts again very close to the actual game spread of 23 pts.

There are other stats that measure efficiency. Effective Possession Ratio (EPR). A team's ability to generate shots for itself....The way this works is Off Rebs get you another possession to shoot. Get more Off  Rebs and your EPR goes up....Getting a TO also  gets you another possession and causes your EPR to go up. Conversely , low Off rebs and losing TOs push your EPR down. What does this mean for SLU?  SLU's EPR grade =D....When we look at opponent EPR...SLU's opponent EPR grade is F....19th worst ITN.

Finally, let's look at one last stat related to all of this....Extra Chance Pts . You get a point for every TO forced and  every Off reb and lose a point for every TO and Off reb you lose.  The SLU ECP grade is another F.

One last thought, I am not a big fan of the  EPR and ECU.  I watch them  and find them interesting but sometimes Off Rebs are down because you are just having a great day shooting  and your opp can't shoot even when given extra shots.  But when you are talking TOs...TO always equals bad.

Bottom line...Big negative TO spreads  = less possessions = less FGAs = less wins

[SLUMS81]

Our defense may look good enough to the coaching staff in practice - problem is, they are guarding players who can’t generate high level offense. 

[JMM28]

Tweet from SLU shows that the team chartered to Loyola. Why?! Save the money. Bus them. 

[Lord Elrond]

5 hours ago, JMM28 said:

Tweet from SLU shows that the team chartered to Loyola. Why?! Save the money. Bus them. 

Condemn them to the most boring bus ride there is? “Look! A lot of farmland and it’s all flat like a pancake….”

[thatskablamo]

4 hours ago, Lord Elrond said:

Condemn them to the most boring bus ride there is? “Look! A lot of farmland and it’s all flat like a pancake….”

There’s also the Lincoln Service up to Chicago Union Station. Amtrak is a budget-friendly alternative. 

[Bay Area Billiken]

Lines:  

Per cbssports.com:  Loyola -9.5, o147;

ESPN.com concurs, Loyola -9.5.

Loyola is 13-7, 5-2;  SLU is 8-12, 1-6.

[Box and Won]

11 hours ago, JMM28 said:

Tweet from SLU shows that the team chartered to Loyola. Why?! Save the money. Bus them.