Loy over The Bills by 10

[slufan13]

I'll say this. The team responded when Ford's son got exposed on Twitter. Maybe they'll respond when Ford's buyout was exposed. 

What else can we dig up each game the rest of the season?

[Lord Elrond]

Bad defense + Bad offense = Bad basketball. Not sure the computer is needed to analyze this, I have an old slide rule that can do the trick. Shoutout to Logrythms 

[The Wiz]

9 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said:

Bad defense + Bad offense = Bad basketball. Not sure the computer is needed to analyze this, I have an old slide rule that can do the trick. Shoutout to Logrythms 

Maybe that should read Loyrythms

[thetorch]

Delete your program and smash the motherboard if it doesn't have every team favored by 20 over SLU the rest of the season.

[The Wiz]

Another painful loss...The good news is we won the TO spread (by 4).  Time to check out what I said in the SLPD thread  on TOs

When the Bills lose the TO spread...there is an 82% chance of a loss. Conversely, when they win the TO spread they win 50% of the time.  This means when you lose the spread it is almost a sure loss ...if you win the spread  you have a chance to win.  In other words, winning the spread you still have work to do (like making the slash) but it gives you a chance....Losing the TO spread is almost a certain loss regardless of what else you do.

So we won the TO battle which gave us a chance to win. And then we shot poorly...really poor...2 of 14 (14%) from the arc....Here is what tonight's graded slash looks like....F-/ F- / F- / C-....Had The Bills just shot their own season average they would have had 4 more 3s...1 more 2 and 1 more FT...Total 15 pts.  Again, they didn't need a good shooting game but just an average Bills night to win.

This isn't complicated with fancy efficiency stats ....Win the TO battle and then shoot The Bills average to win games.

[Old guy]

There is a problem with this analysis. In tonight's game, SLU had 12 TOs, Loyola had 16. At the end of the game Ford's comments indicated that the players had consistently chosen to shoot low probability shots and missed them.  They did not choose to penetrate closer to the rim to take higher percentage shots. It must be kept in mind that higher percentage shots have a higher probability of physical contact and pain/injury. It is also true that we did not reach our usual averages this game.

My personal conclusion continues being that this team and the coach are not well associated/coordinated with one another. We lost this game after winning the TO battle, at least this time.

[Soderball]

12 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Another painful loss...The good news is we won the TO spread (by 4).  Time to check out what I said in the SLPD thread  on TOs

When the Bills lose the TO spread...there is an 82% chance of a loss. Conversely, when they win the TO spread they win 50% of the time.  This means when you lose the spread it is almost a sure loss ...if you win the spread  you have a chance to win.  In other words, winning the spread you still have work to do (like making the slash) but it gives you a chance....Losing the TO spread is almost a certain loss regardless of what else you do.

So we won the TO battle which gave us a chance to win. And then we shot poorly...really poor...2 of 14 (14%) from the arc....Here is what tonight's graded slash looks like....F-/ F- / F- / C-....Had The Bills just shot their own season average they would have had 4 more 3s...1 more 2 and 1 more FT...Total 15 pts.  Again, they didn't need a good shooting game but just an average Bills night to win.

This isn't complicated with fancy efficiency stats ....Win the TO battle and then shoot The Bills average to win games.

So if the Billikens didn't suck they might have a chance to win?

 

The computer knows the Billikens suck. The Billikens lost.

[Old guy]

Wiz, I find it interesting to discuss probability with you. Yes, the probability of a loss may well 82% when the Bills do not win the TOs, and 50% when they win the TOs. That is generally speaking. I would like to point out that it is not the same to lose by a couple of points than to lose by 15 points or more after losing the TO's in any given game. Individual case probability is not an exact science which depends upon the averages of preferably large numbers of cases, some of which will be outliers.  When evaluating the probability of a single case oftentimes you have to look for details suggesting this particular individual case is an outlier, which was the case in the Bills vs Loyola game. It can be done, please believe me.

[The Wiz]

4 hours ago, Old guy said:

Wiz, I find it interesting to discuss probability with you. Yes, the probability of a loss may well 82% when the Bills do not win the TOs, and 50% when they win the TOs. That is generally speaking. I would like to point out that it is not the same to lose by a couple of points than to lose by 15 points or more after losing the TO's in any given game. Individual case probability is not an exact science which depends upon the averages of preferably large numbers of cases, some of which will be outliers.  When evaluating the probability of a single case oftentimes you have to look for details suggesting this particular individual case is an outlier, which was the case in the Bills vs Loyola game. It can be done, please believe me.

I think the computer takes what you say into account.  It predicted  a 10 pt  win for Loy...Loy won by 15. .  Once the computer picks a double digit win anything above the forecast is considered a "diminishing return" and not that meaningful. The key point of that TO stat was...in most cases you have to win the TO battle first AND THEN you need to win the game with other stats.   Lose that TO battle and it will be very difficult to win the game (as in 54% + from the arc).  In the A10 where you have a great deal of parity  even a small TO spread can affect the outcome of the game.. The larger TO spreads just turn the games into blowouts.