The Bills over WY by 2

[The Wiz]

General Outlook.... 

A couple of points to start....First ...Fans say we haven't really played anyone. That will end with this game...WY, while not a powerhouse comes in at C+ and with some very impressive stats.  This will be our toughest game so far. The Bills remain at B.

Point two...We are 3-0 ...why do we seem to be moving sideways in the ratings.  Because we haven't really womped (a technical term) anyone. Even though we have won by nice margins we haven't beat my spread. My spread weighs heavily on margin of victory. Whether you want to call it that or Net Efficiency, the bottom line is ...The NET is based on margin of victory.  I have tried to model my system after the NET as many other rating systems have.  Had we made my spreads we would have moved up on most rating services....Had we been able to hold the 24 pt leads, we would have made some big jumps. Make no mistake about it...the primary goal of any rating system is to win but after that it is by how much.

 Game Preview....

Which brings us to this game...a tough matchup.   As you can see by the spread, the goal here will be to win by any margin.  WY has some eye popping stats...shooting FG% 58%...3P% 49%...3 players averaging a combined 53pts /gm. ...a player shooting 80% with 10 rebs /gm....I could go but you get the idea...unsustainable season stats ...and it will be The Bills job to start making those stats unsustainable.  How can we do that? By playing Bills ball. First a dose of reality...The Cowboys have 2 wins...1 against a D2 team , the other against Cal Poly ...one of the worst D1 teams in a weak league (Big West) So the stats have been inflated a bit but WY can still play. Manyawu is an athletic  6'9 forward who can shoot and rebound especially if playing against a weak defense. His sub is a 7 footer Kojenets....who is a fly swatter averaging 4 blocks a game...you have to work around him...if you come at him the game will turn into a ping pong match.  Add in some guards that can shoot 3s when left alone and you have a sizeable task.  The Cowboys have 6 good players but not much depth. They will start to fade in a tourney with 3 games in 4 days.  Hopefully our run and gun will cause them to fade in our game .  The computer has sifted through all of this data  and still has made the determination we can win this game....ie we are the better team....if we play our game.

 

Report Card.... 

Let's see what things look like....

...................SLU......................WY........................SLU.............................WY

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B.........................A.............................C+..................................B+

FG%...............C+......................A+...5th ITN.........A-...................................B+

3P%...............A-......................A+.....5th ITN.........B-..................................D

FT%...............C+......................D..................................................................

Reb...............C.........................C.............................F+.................................A

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....FT%...Def.....FG%

Down.........Off.......3P%....Reb......Def....none

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

TOs/Gm....The Bills...20th...8.6/gm

WY

Assts...Kot...66th...5

Rebs...Manyawu...37th...10

FG%....Manyawu....26th...80%

Blks...Kojenets....2nd....4/gm

 

Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills....

none

WY.....

Foster....G...Out for season (Nov 6)....Achilles

Waters...F...Out till mid Jan (Oct 19)...Thumb

 

...

Keys to the game.. . 

..We need to play 4 quarters....Let me reword that....We need to play the 4th quarter.....The first 2 D1 games we have played have been great games for 3 quarters...the 4th quarters we seem to run out of steam...We need to out score them in the final 10 mins which will not only give us a win but we will beat the spread by a bit too.  Make FTs . We shot great against ILST... the other 2 games not so good.  FTs don't always matter in the outcome of the game. It will matter in this game. Not only because it is projected to be close...but because WY is a poor shooting FT team....They have 1 guy who can shoot (Kot...94%) ...the rest of the team...meh.... advantage Bills...take it....Finally, make some 3s...The Cowboys don't defend well from the arc.

WWN2D2W...Make some shots...50/40/ 75....Protect the ball...10 TOs...Out rebound them by  4....Play some D....hold there top 3 scorers to 42 pts and the team to 73pts....Score more pts then them in the final quarter

Bottom line....This will be a good test. If the Bills play their game , we will ride the Cowboys out of town.

[Old guy]

I fully agree we have to play WY all 4 quarters, that is keep the pressure up. I believe that is we do the normal 3 aggressive quarters and the last quarter using decreased pressure, we will lose the game. Who knows what will happen, as you say this is a test.

[VeniceMenace]

Get Mugassa eligible & then it’s Bills by 4

[slu72]

For some reason 4th qtr collapses are becoming a trademark of Ford’s Bills. I don’t think any Bills fans will ever forget the SIUE meltdown after being up 18 w/ about 11 minutes left and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Our last game vs Ill St, had us all saying, uh oh, here we go again. The Wy report means they will not go down easily. Yeah, they really haven’t played anyone of note but neither have we. What scares me is their 3 pt %. Hell, 49% is a good % for warmups. I’m sure the 2 teams they played at least put their arms up to defend. And we all know how pitiful we are at defending the 3. 
I’ll be sitting w/ Taj Mahal 79 and B’roy in MB to see this up front and personal. If we blow a lead, don’t defend the 3, start that weave crap, and/or slow down the tempo, I fully expect the 3 of us will be asked to leave as we won’t have a raucous crowd to muffle our expletives. I’m especially concerned about Taj Mahal 79 the first time we start the dreaded weave that only eats up clock and then ends with a poor hurried shot. 
I know I’m gonna be po’d if I see Gibby standing in his corner not getting any help to set him up for open looks. 
I really didn’t think the cow punchers would be a difficult game. Now I’m not so sure. And I was looking forward to a matchup in game 2 with CofC. Which we still might get even if we lose as Alpine U (VT) is no pushover and CofC got slammed by Duquesne. 
GO BILLS! 

[TheA_Bomb]

This team will not out rebound anyone. 

We need to get favorable calls hit FTs and hit 3PTRs at a higher rate. 

[billiken_roy]

45 minutes ago, slu72 said:

For some reason 4th qtr collapses are becoming a trademark of Ford’s Bills. I don’t think any Bills fans will ever forget the SIUE meltdown after being up 18 w/ about 11 minutes left and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Our last game vs Ill St, had us all saying, uh oh, here we go again. The Wy report means they will not go down easily. Yeah, they really haven’t played anyone of note but neither have we. What scares me is their 3 pt %. Hell, 49% is a good % for warmups. I’m sure the 2 teams they played at least put their arms up to defend. And we all know how pitiful we are at defending the 3. 
I’ll be sitting w/ Taj Mahal 79 and B’roy in MB to see this up front and personal. If we blow a lead, don’t defend the 3, start that weave crap, and/or slow down the tempo, I fully expect the 3 of us will be asked to leave as we won’t have a raucous crowd to muffle our expletives. I’m especially concerned about Taj Mahal 79 the first time we start the dreaded weave that only eats up clock and then ends with a poor hurried shot. 
I know I’m gonna be po’d if I see Gibby standing in his corner not getting any help to set him up for open looks. 
I really didn’t think the cow punchers would be a difficult game. Now I’m not so sure. And I was looking forward to a matchup in game 2 with CofC. Which we still might get even if we lose as Alpine U (VT) is no pushover and CofC got slammed by Duquesne. 
GO BILLS! 

i dont think this team will have a lay down win all season.   the lack of a true inside focus, is going to always weigh the billikens down.   not that i dont appreciate the effort and athleticism of hargrove.   he plays the game hard and is all out.   but we all know that you have a real time making up size.  

[johnbj14]

4th quarter collapses aren’t becoming a thing for Ford teams. They’ve been a thing for 5 years now. He switches to an extremely conservative approach the last 10 minutes and it simply doesn’t work. I get slowing down a bit and only taking good shots, but his offensive sets don’t generate those in large quantities. 

[3star_recruit]

6 minutes ago, johnbj14 said:

4th quarter collapses aren’t becoming a thing for Ford teams. They’ve been a thing for 5 years now. He switches to an extremely conservative approach the last 10 minutes and it simply doesn’t work. I get slowing down a bit and only taking good shots, but his offensive sets don’t generate those in large quantities. 

I don't recall 4th quarter collapses being an issue prior to Covid.  If we were up double digits with 10 minutes left, that was a W.  Our problem in losses and close games was getting a lead, not losing them.

[wgstl]

11 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

I don't recall 4th quarter collapses being an issue prior to Covid.  If we were up double digits with 10 minutes left, that was a W.  Our problem in losses and close games was getting a lead, not losing them.

Partially because pre covid Fords teams could never get a lead. Every game was close. 

[Billiken Rich]

1 hour ago, TheA_Bomb said:

This team will not out rebound anyone. 

We need to get favorable calls hit FTs and hit 3PTRs at a higher rate. 

My thoughts exactly

 

[Soderball]

The billikens cannot rebound, Wiz. You need a different key to the game. We just got outrebounded badly by a terrible ILST team.

[The Wiz]

It looks like there are a few on this thread who feel we can't out rebound  WY.....If you look at the report card both teams have a grade of C on total rebounds.   The computer says it is a coin flip since both teams are showing the same grade. In WWN2D2W, the computer shows what it will take to win the game.  Do we need to make all those parameters ?....No...If we make most of them or some of them( like out rebounding WY by 4)  the probability is that we will win.  In fact even if you only made 1 or 2 of the parameters and far exceeded we could still win.

In its quantum state, the computer says both teams win the rebound battle...it will depend on the observer(s) for the final outcome.

 

[TheA_Bomb]

1 minute ago, The Wiz said:

In its quantum state, the computer says both teams win the rebound battle...it will depend on the observer(s) for the final outcome.

 

Ah Schrödinger's rebounds. Right now we've both outrebounded and under rebounded WY.

[shempie]

One of my favorite teams was the 93-94 team. It was outrebounded by about 2/game but had 6 fewer turnovers per game. If we get no more bigs eligible, there is a model to be successful. And I am not comparing this team to 93-94, just pointing out that there is more than one way to generate possessions.

[Soderball]

If we score more points than Wyoming we will win.

[CenHudDude]

28 minutes ago, Soderball said:

If we score more points than Wyoming we will win.

50/50?

[WVBilliken]

Looks like the local press expects a blowout win for Wyoming. 

https://www.wyomingnewsnow.tv/sports/betting/2023/11/16/wyoming-saint-louis-college-basketball-picks-predictions/

[BrettJollyComedyHour]

17 minutes ago, WVBilliken said:

local press

That says it all though 

[Billiken Rich]

3 minutes ago, BrettJollyComedyHour said:

That says it all though 

Just saying press is enough, these days......

[TheA_Bomb]

It was a AI generated article with a prediction from their computer model.

[RiseOfTheBillikens]

16 minutes ago, TheA_Bomb said:

It was a AI generated article with a prediction from their computer model.

I'd like to see the Wiz's and their computer battle it out. My money is on the Wiz's machine.

[CenHudDude]

17 minutes ago, TheA_Bomb said:

It was a AI generated article with a prediction from their computer model.

I’ll take the wiz’s computer model thank-you.

[billikenbill]

6 hours ago, slu72 said:

For some reason 4th qtr collapses are becoming a trademark of Ford’s Bills. I don’t think any Bills fans will ever forget the SIUE meltdown after being up 18 w/ about 11 minutes left and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Our last game vs Ill St, had us all saying, uh oh, here we go again. The Wy report means they will not go down easily. Yeah, they really haven’t played anyone of note but neither have we. What scares me is their 3 pt %. Hell, 49% is a good % for warmups. I’m sure the 2 teams they played at least put their arms up to defend. And we all know how pitiful we are at defending the 3. 

Had the day off so took some time to watch the last 12:55 of Ill. St. SLU had 23 possessions during that time, 22 actual possessions, and a quirky one where Parker’s flagrant 1 foul was considered a possession.

Of those 22 real possessions, the Bills had 8 end in a shot attempt (went 0-9 as Gibby had a putback blocked,) 8 ended in a turnover, and 6 ended in FTs. Most of the shots missed were good shots which were falling earlier but missing late. One or two of the turnovers came as a result of risky passes, but the rest were just things that can happen at any point in a game. Guys were trying to make plays but for one reason or another couldn’t pull them off.

IMHO, it didn’t look to me like there was any change in tempo, just the law of averages working out to where you have one turnover in 52 possessions,  but 8 in 22, while shooting 51% on 43 attempts for 27 mins. and 0% on 9 attempts for 13 mins.

As far as the weave goes, it seems to me the time spent on that has been cut at least in half, and the two or three passes involved are simply to establish each player’s position in the halfcourt set to initiate screens, cuts, passing lanes, and so on.

We need to get our bigs improving quickly and avoid injuries. So far, it’s been a fun team to watch despite the late fades.

[Bay Area Billiken]

Line per cbssports.com has SLU as a 4.5 point favorite over Wyoming, o151.

[Lord Elrond]

1 hour ago, TheA_Bomb said:

Ah Schrödinger's rebounds. Right now we've both outrebounded and under rebounded WY.

So until the game is played, we will either out-rebound them or be out-rebounded by them…