Transfers - 2023

[JMM28]

Some interesting stats that go against the “portal is going to kill mid majors” narrative. 
 

 

 

[TheChosenOne]

7 hours ago, VeniceMenace said:

Cannot blame SLU for moving on from these perpetual holding patterns. School is starting…

I would have recommended moving on much sooner. It seems like we picked the wrong horses this spring. Good job attacking the International market though to hopefully make up for the failure in the transfer portal.

[Lord Elrond]

So while some have moved up, that’s only 1 in 12 of those who transferred, or 8.33% of the 55% who transferred, or roughly4.6% of the total into the portal. Entering the portal it was 10 times more likely that a player would not be on a new team than a player would find a new home at a better school. Most who transferred stayed at a similarly ranked institution.

The real narrative of the portal seems to be more about how it’s used by all teams to get rid of their recruiting mistakes primarily. If a player manages to move up to a better school that’s actually a relatively rare thing. 

[ACE]

1 hour ago, JMM28 said:

Some interesting stats that go against the “portal is going to kill mid majors” narrative. 
 

 

 

I don't think it's helping the A-10. There were former A-10 players all over the most recent NCAA Tourney field, yet only one A-10 team in it. And I think NIL is an even bigger detriment to all non-P6 schools.

[Old guy]

I agree with ACE. I wonder why Lord Elrond analysis did not include the possible impact of NIL offers received vs personal player ambition/agent recommendation on the part of the players in the portal. Are the players really interested in transferring to better schools or are they primarily interested in getting the largest NIL possible? And among those players that did not find a new home, how many received NIL offers they considered inadequate? The role of the players agents in determining how high a NIL should individual players in the portal be aiming for was probably also involved in this process. I am aware that there is no reliable information available  about how much in NIL was offered and rejected by the players that did not  find a new home in the portal this year. 

From my point of view, player/agent ambition and greed may have played an important role in the failed transfer outcome for at least some of the players that did  not find a new home. It must be remembered that many young kids are probably not ready to say "enough is enough" and accept a good offer.

 

 

 

[shempie]

 

Players still entering the portal.

 

[wgstl]

10 minutes ago, shempie said:

 

Players still entering the portal.

 

dudes gotten worse every year.  But im sure this post was maybe about players still entering.  At this point a player only enters the poral because he sucks, or he already has a spot he's going to.  Players don't just leave to leave. 

[ACE]

It looks like Bradford still has not found a home. Maybe he has retired.

[wgstl]

14 minutes ago, ACE said:

It looks like Bradford still has not found a home. Maybe he has retired.

Gonna have to sit out a year. 

[Lord Elrond]

1 hour ago, Old guy said:

I agree with ACE. I wonder why Lord Elrond analysis did not include the possible impact of NIL offers received vs personal player ambition/agent recommendation on the part of the players in the portal. Are the players really interested in transferring to better schools or are they primarily interested in getting the largest NIL possible? And among those players that did not find a new home, how many received NIL offers they considered inadequate? The role of the players agents in determining how high a NIL should individual players in the portal be aiming for was probably also involved in this process. I am aware that there is no reliable information available  about how much in NIL was offered and rejected by the players that did not  find a new home in the portal this year. 

From my point of view, player/agent ambition and greed may have played an important role in the failed transfer outcome for at least some of the players that did  not find a new home. It must be remembered that many young kids are probably not ready to say "enough is enough" and accept a good offer.

 

 

 

If the players were only interested in more money, then for 45% of them entering the portal it failed completely.  There is no way that that many players will go pro anywhere in the world, there simply aren’t that many professional basketball jobs out there, so they are essentially out of basketball at this point. Maybe if they stay in shape, and stay academically eligible somehow then they can try to get on a team at mid season where there was a season ending injury, or try to get back in next year, but the academically eligible part of that is probably going to be the hardest part of that, as they no longer have access to free tutoring and other things that schools do to help their players academically, they are just on their own.

There is no transparency in any of this NIL and transfer portal process. I have no doubt that many players got bad information from lousy agents (again, no regulation of any of these “agents”, no history or track record of success to go on) and made bad decisions off of that. I have no doubt that many of the players had exaggerated opinions of what they should get as well, and family/friends pushing that as well, that turned out badly for them. I don’t see any way of ever quantifying any of that.   I’m also sure many of the transfers were more about playing time, or coaching/assistant coach changes, or family reasons, or whatever.  But I do think that getting rid of recruiting mistakes is a major reason for the big schools and coaches to not totally hate the portal.

[Compton]

17 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said:

If the players were only interested in more money, then for 45% of them entering the portal it failed completely. 

The statistic was that 45% of players who entered the portal this year will not play NCAA basketball in the upcoming 2023-24 season.

Some of that 45%, including possibly Ezewiro, are on teams and may be getting NIL deals, they just won't be playing in 2023-24.

[Lord Elrond]

3 minutes ago, Compton said:

The statistic was that 45% of players who entered the portal this year will not play NCAA basketball in the upcoming 2023-24 season.

Some of that 45%, including possibly Ezewiro, are on teams and may be getting NIL deals, they just won't be playing in 2023-24.

The quote was 817 of 1815 D1 players who entered the portal have not found a new home. Ezewiro found a home, he just might be ineligible this year (or he may be, the NCAA hasn’t ruled him ineligible yet). So those 817 are out of NCAA basketball at this point.

[brianstl]

2 hours ago, Lord Elrond said:

The quote was 817 of 1815 D1 players who entered the portal have not found a new home. Ezewiro found a home, he just might be ineligible this year (or he may be, the NCAA hasn’t ruled him ineligible yet). So those 817 are out of NCAA basketball at this point.

I would be shocked if a large percentage of those 817 weren't walk-ons.  I was amazed at the sheer volume of walk-ons entering the portal during the spring.

[Old guy]

8 hours ago, Lord Elrond said:

If the players were only interested in more money, then for 45% of them entering the portal it failed completely.  There is no way that that many players will go pro anywhere in the world, there simply aren’t that many professional basketball jobs out there, so they are essentially out of basketball at this point. Maybe if they stay in shape, and stay academically eligible somehow then they can try to get on a team at mid season where there was a season ending injury, or try to get back in next year, but the academically eligible part of that is probably going to be the hardest part of that, as they no longer have access to free tutoring and other things that schools do to help their players academically, they are just on their own.

There is no transparency in any of this NIL and transfer portal process. I have no doubt that many players got bad information from lousy agents (again, no regulation of any of these “agents”, no history or track record of success to go on) and made bad decisions off of that. I have no doubt that many of the players had exaggerated opinions of what they should get as well, and family/friends pushing that as well, that turned out badly for them. I don’t see any way of ever quantifying any of that.   I’m also sure many of the transfers were more about playing time, or coaching/assistant coach changes, or family reasons, or whatever.  But I do think that getting rid of recruiting mistakes is a major reason for the big schools and coaches to not totally hate the portal.

I completely agree that every single player entering the portal had his own goals/desires involved in their decision to accept or refuse an offer, assuming there was one. I agree that all of these kinds of information are opaque and will remain so regardless. However, those players joining the portal looking for the largest amount of NIL money possible and still not committed made a major mistake. Not only did they lose the money they were hoping to get, but they also lost the chance of getting a free education. Many of the players in the portal may, as you say, have had little potential for going professional. The loss of a free education for these players with little potential for going professional is a very serious loss anyway you look at it. 

[Lord Elrond]

5 hours ago, Old guy said:

I completely agree that every single player entering the portal had his own goals/desires involved in their decision to accept or refuse an offer, assuming there was one. I agree that all of these kinds of information are opaque and will remain so regardless. However, those players joining the portal looking for the largest amount of NIL money possible and still not committed made a major mistake. Not only did they lose the money they were hoping to get, but they also lost the chance of getting a free education. Many of the players in the portal may, as you say, have had little potential for going professional. The loss of a free education for these players with little potential for going professional is a very serious loss anyway you look at it. 

Getting a college degree WITHOUT being burdened with major debt related to it is not nothing, it is a very big something. Ask a recent college grad who has his degree, but also who has a huge student loan that they will be repaying almost until they retire what they would think about having that degree, but no student loan debt, and they will tell you just how much they would love to have that deal.  I think the problem is that a lot of kids who are good enough to play college basketball or football think that they are also good enough to go pro, and will keep pursuing that no matter what, even though the number of college players who go on to play professionally is a very very small number of the total number of college players. I think the kids who are smart enough to leverage their athletic skill into getting a college degree with little to no debt have the right idea, but I can’t force that idea on them, they are free to do whatever they want, and sometimes when people make a choice they make a choice they end up regretting.

[billiken_roy]

12 hours ago, Old guy said:

I completely agree that every single player entering the portal had his own goals/desires involved in their decision to accept or refuse an offer, assuming there was one. I agree that all of these kinds of information are opaque and will remain so regardless. However, those players joining the portal looking for the largest amount of NIL money possible and still not committed made a major mistake. Not only did they lose the money they were hoping to get, but they also lost the chance of getting a free education. Many of the players in the portal may, as you say, have had little potential for going professional. The loss of a free education for these players with little potential for going professional is a very serious loss anyway you look at it. 

it's my opinion the majority of D1 college athletes in the revenue sports never cared about an education.   it was always about playing in the nfl or nba no matter how remote their possibility was.  

[Lord Elrond]

16 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

it's my opinion the majority of D1 college athletes in the revenue sports never cared about an education.   it was always about playing in the nfl or nba no matter how remote their possibility was.  

There is a lot of truth in that.  It’s their life and their choice is really the bottom line.

[3star_recruit]

4 hours ago, Lord Elrond said:

There is a lot of truth in that.  It’s their life and their choice is really the bottom line.

This is really a class discussion.  Kids coming from comfortable upper middle class situations don't have the same sense of urgency to make a ton of money right away that a working class kid does.  Kids who are potential lottery picks, of course, are leaving regardless of their financial situation.

[Old guy]

I agree with both of you, education is probably not as important as basketball for these kids. However, regardless of how important it is for them, the loss of an opportunity to obtain a free of charge college education is a major loss for anyone.

[thetorch]

On 8/17/2023 at 8:25 PM, TheChosenOne said:

I thought we were getting Malcolm Dandridge and Jalen Rucker from Army?

TheOne was talking out of his a**.

Rucker got in serious trouble at Army and won't be able to enroll in any school until it is cleared up.  If we seriously thought he was an option the staff did not do their due diligence.

Dandridge is a mess and again if the staff did their due dilligence they would have known the chances of landing him were nil.  

It seems the board insider was blowing smoke for the staff or was very misinformed.

 

[slu72]

Who knows what transpired with these two and the staff. Let’s not knock the One. He’s been spot on more than off the mark. 

[almaman]

On 3/8/2023 at 11:24 AM, wgstl said:

I hate that I enjoy it so much.  Every time SLU shows up in the list of schools that reach out to a kid, and that kids stats fit perfectly in what we need, I immediately starting looking at final four locations. 

team's fanbase well educated many in the same institution giving them the free ride, but just as the players to a man see a path to NBA we can always connect the dots to the finals but the chance is really as good as the lottery imo.

[cheeseman]

On 8/18/2023 at 6:55 AM, JMM28 said:

Some interesting stats that go against the “portal is going to kill mid majors” narrative. 
 

 

 

Interesting data - I guess if your top player at your mid major transferred you would think the portal is ruining your situation.  

[3star_recruit]

41 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

Interesting data - I guess if your top player at your mid major transferred you would think the portal is ruining your situation.  

Depends on whether you were losing your top player even before the portal.  See Duquesne.

[thetorch]

The portal went as many predicted.  It is a system make the rich richer, and the poor even poorer.

There is very little upward mobility in the portal.

The portal allows big time schools to dump their recruiting mistakes on the smaller schools.  Then bring in more highly ranked freshman, prep, and JUCO players while the rest of college basketball falls all over themselves fighting for backup centers and shooting guards that can't shoot.

It looks like Ford figured this out halfway through the summer.  Build your programs with freshman recruits, augent with available transfers.  Using the transfer portal to build your program just doesn't work.