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Dayton over The Bills by 7


The Wiz

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Game Outlook...

Just a left over stat from the VCU game written after the Bills/VCU contest for your consideration...  Baldwin had a season stopper game...80/80/80/100 (the extra slash is the 2P category). ...37pts with at least 9 pts in each category.... 9 consecutive FTM...12pts from 3...16 pts from 2.  We will play VCU again... maybe twice more...Baldwin will not have a game like that again,  against us or anyone else.  In the first game since our meeting with them , Baldwin's slash last night with Day was...29% (6-15) / 43% (6-14 / 0% (0-7) / 100% (2-2) .  While this stat shows, that Baldwin's outbreak against us was an anomaly, there is a much more important point , coming out of the VCU/Day game last night.  Baldwin and VCU shot poorly and yet that game came down to the final seconds.   As you will see in the report card below, Dayton has a stellar defense....one of the best in the country...a defense that should have put VCU away when combined with VCU's weak shooting numbers.  Dayton does have an Achilles heel.  They turn the ball over.  Last night , they turned it over 17 times. It allowed VCU to stay in the game till the very end.

Getting other teams to turn it over isn't our strong suit , but the Bills did force 14 TOs against Rhody.  Will they do that against Dayton?  If we  do,  it would be a step toward victory.

Dayton will be the best defense we face this year. It is going to be tough BUT we can do it...just remember this...RI just beat them recently. That's all you need to know.

General Outlook....

At the beginning of conference play , I talked about the 11...the first 11 games of the season.  In order for us to have a successful season we needed to do well during these games.  The computer forecasted we would be favored in all of them and thought we would win between 7 and 9 games...we came in at 8...More importantly, was to become positioned for the end of the season. Becoming positioned meant finishing 1st after 11 games...which we have done  now that we are tied for 1st on the lost side.  As of today the computer is projecting us to finish 3rd in the A10. ..double bye...followed by games with VCU and Dayton.   While all the games are important from here on out there is one game that can change the standings and propel us into a possible 1st place finish ...the game against VCU on Feb 28. No one said it was going to be easy but there still is a path to The Dance....A win in this game would be a big deal and make our path easier.  For the NET watchers,  a win would cause a decent move up in the rankings.  Let's take it one game at a time.

Report Card....

1 category up( opp Rebs) .....1 category down (3P Def ).  Another clean Card (no Ds or Fs).   We are close to the honor roll on offense (B's or higher) if we can continue to shoot at the same 3P rate we have been,  we can make it.

Let's look at the report card...

...................SLU......................Day........................SLU.............................Day

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B....................D+..............................C-..................................A+...16th ITN

FG%...............B....................B+..............................A-..................................A+...13th ITN

3P%...............C+..................D+.............................B-..................................A+...9th ITN

FT%...............B-...................D+..................................................................

Reb...............A.....................B...............................C+....................................A+...14th ITN

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....none....Def....Opp rebs

Down.........Off......none...Def....3P%

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......36th  all time D1 list...1st all time A10

Assts/TO ratio...Collins...17th...dn

Reb...Okoro...53rd...dn

Blks...Okoro ...65th...up

Off Reb...Okoro...24th ...dn

Dou Dou...Collins...56th...dn

3PM....Jimerson...80th

DAY

PPG....Holmes...80th

FG%...Holmes...27th

Blks...Holmes...32nd

Dou Dou...Holmes...13th 

Off Reb....Holmes...75th

Rebs...Camara...35th...Holmes...100

 

 Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills....2/8..Thames....Out indefinitely...undisclosed.....No timetable for return

DAY...2/7...Smith...Ques...ankle...uncertain if he will be able to play Fri

 

Keys to the game.... Stopping Holmes and Camara....as you can see by the report card Holmes is their main man. But if you want to win , you have to stop both...  Dayton can make shots close to the basket...every step back from the basket their percentages drop quickly.  Make them shoot from as far away as possible on every shot. ...Protect the ball. TO differential will be important ..No careless passes.. bother them as much as possible . And finally make some shots...we have an edge on offense , hopefully we will take advantage of it.

WWN2D2W...Make the slash...47/40/75...Hold their  top 2 guys Holmes and Camara  to 25 pts combined.....beat them on TOs by 1...Out rebound them by 3.

Bottom line....Dayton is  weak offense (except close in), and strong defense.... 2 great players...This game will be about the unstoppable force  (the Bills when they are on ) vs the immovable object( Dayton when they don't turn the ball over)...If The Bills play smart , they will Fly high.

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Can't really see this Bills team the way they have played this season gets a win at Dayton. When they play them at Chaifetz at best it will be a toss up and that's if the Bills play a 40 minute game. They didn't at home VS VCU which led to an L.

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11 hours ago, The Wiz said:

 

Dayton will be the best defense we face this year. It is going to be tough BUT we can do it...just remember this...RI just beat them recently. That's all you need to know.

 

Interesting. Everywhere I’ve seen has UD as the 5th best defense we will have faced up till now. Is this bc we’re playing @UD with that defense ? 

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22 minutes ago, Schasz said:

Can't really see this Bills team the way they have played this season gets a win at Dayton. When they play them at Chaifetz at best it will be a toss up and that's if the Bills play a 40 minute game. They didn't at home VS VCU which led to an L.

The ball movement through the first 8 minutes of the VCU game resulted in so many great looks. They looked in sync and smooth. I wish they could do that over a full 40 minutes.

brianstl and Dr Bird like this
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1 hour ago, wgstl said:

Interesting. Everywhere I’ve seen has UD as the 5th best defense we will have faced up till now. Is this bc we’re playing @UD with that defense ? 

We have faced some good defenses this year.  I would say the best we have seen so far is Auburn. Here is how that shakes out.

Defense

........................Auburn.........................................Day

PPG..................A-.................................................A+..15th ITN

FG%.................A+..9th ITN.................................A+...12th ITN

3P%.................A+...4thITN.................................A+....9th ITN

Reb..................C..................................................A+....14th ITN

So I will stick with my original statement...this is the best defense we will see this year.

But again, remember, Day is a team that lost to RI and GW back to back.  And yes , I do know that we are playing at Day and Day is a difficult venue. On the other hand , RI and GW are the not the A10 cream of the crop.

Beating them won't be easy but it can be done.

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21 minutes ago, juniorbill76 said:

The main question for Friday night: bourbon or scotch? Please discuss.

Depending how it goes, may have to break out the Rocket Fuel.  The mix, you ask? 1/3 rum, 1/3 vodka, 1/3 everclear, with red food coloring added. You can run your car on that, if it has a carburetor and you adjust it properly.

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19 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Game Outlook...

Just a left over stat from the VCU game written after the Bills/VCU contest for your consideration...  Baldwin had a season stopper game...80/80/80/100 (the extra slash is the 2P category). ...37pts with at least 9 pts in each category.... 9 consecutive FTM...12pts from 3...16 pts from 2.  We will play VCU again... maybe twice more...Baldwin will not have a game like that again,  against us or anyone else.  In the first game since our meeting with them , Baldwin's slash last night with Day was...29% (6-15) / 43% (6-14 / 0% (0-7) / 100% (2-2) .  While this stat shows, that Baldwin's outbreak against us was an anomaly, there is a much more important point , coming out of the VCU/Day game last night.  Baldwin and VCU shot poorly and yet that game came down to the final seconds.   As you will see in the report card below, Dayton has a stellar defense....one of the best in the country...a defense that should have put VCU away when combined with VCU's weak shooting numbers.  Dayton does have an Achilles heel.  They turn the ball over.  Last night , they turned it over 17 times. It allowed VCU to stay in the game till the very end.

Getting other teams to turn it over isn't our strong suit , but the Bills did force 14 TOs against Rhody.  Will they do that against Dayton?  If we  do,  it would be a step toward victory.

Dayton will be the best defense we face this year. It is going to be tough BUT we can do it...just remember this...RI just beat them recently. That's all you need to know.

General Outlook....

At the beginning of conference play , I talked about the 11...the first 11 games of the season.  In order for us to have a successful season we needed to do well during these games.  The computer forecasted we would be favored in all of them and thought we would win between 7 and 9 games...we came in at 8...More importantly, was to become positioned for the end of the season. Becoming positioned meant finishing 1st after 11 games...which we have done  now that we are tied for 1st on the lost side.  As of today the computer is projecting us to finish 3rd in the A10. ..double bye...followed by games with VCU and Dayton.   While all the games are important from here on out there is one game that can change the standings and propel us into a possible 1st place finish ...the game against VCU on Feb 28. No one said it was going to be easy but there still is a path to The Dance....A win in this game would be a big deal and make our path easier.  For the NET watchers,  a win would cause a decent move up in the rankings.  Let's take it one game at a time.

Report Card....

1 category up( opp Rebs) .....1 category down (3P Def ).  Another clean Card (no Ds or Fs).   We are close to the honor roll on offense (B's or higher) if we can continue to shoot at the same 3P rate we have been,  we can make it.

Let's look at the report card...

...................SLU......................Day........................SLU.............................Day

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B....................D+..............................C-..................................A+...16th ITN

FG%...............B....................B+..............................A-..................................A+...13th ITN

3P%...............C+..................D+.............................B-..................................A+...9th ITN

FT%...............B-...................D+..................................................................

Reb...............A.....................B...............................C+....................................A+...14th ITN

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....none....Def....Opp rebs

Down.........Off......none...Def....3P%

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......36th  all time D1 list...1st all time A10

Assts/TO ratio...Collins...17th...dn

Reb...Okoro...53rd...dn

Blks...Okoro ...65th...up

Off Reb...Okoro...24th ...dn

Dou Dou...Collins...56th...dn

3PM....Jimerson...80th

DAY

PPG....Holmes...80th

FG%...Holmes...27th

Blks...Holmes...32nd

Dou Dou...Holmes...13th 

Off Reb....Holmes...75th

Rebs...Camara...35th...Holmes...100

 

 Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills....2/8..Thames....Out indefinitely...undisclosed.....No timetable for return

DAY...2/7...Smith...Ques...ankle...uncertain if he will be able to play Fri

 

Keys to the game.... Stopping Holmes and Camara....as you can see by the report card Holmes is their main man. But if you want to win , you have to stop both...  Dayton can make shots close to the basket...every step back from the basket their percentages drop quickly.  Make them shoot from as far away as possible on every shot. ...Protect the ball. TO differential will be important ..No careless passes.. bother them as much as possible . And finally make some shots...we have an edge on offense , hopefully we will take advantage of it.

WWN2D2W...Make the slash...47/40/75...Hold their  top 2 guys Holmes and Camara  to 25 pts combined.....beat them on TOs by 1...Out rebound them by 3.

Bottom line....Dayton is  weak offense (except close in), and strong defense.... 2 great players...This game will be about the unstoppable force  (the Bills when they are on ) vs the immovable object( Dayton when they don't turn the ball over)...If The Bills play smart , they will Fly high.

-oh great, another big that blocks shots, we typically don't do well with those

-so would it be extra beneficial to our chances to win this game to make their guards shoot jumpers as opposed to blowing by us and getting to the basket? in other words, keep them in front of us?

-hope we find our ft mojo

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1 hour ago, Cowboy II said:

-oh great, another big that blocks shots, we typically don't do well with those

-so would it be extra beneficial to our chances to win this game to make their guards shoot jumpers as opposed to blowing by us and getting to the basket? in other words, keep them in front of us?

-hope we find our ft mojo

Anything we can do to keep them away from the basket would help.  As good as they are on defense , they have trouble shooting unless they are close to the basket. If Majerus was reading this thread , he would say...make them shoot deep 2s.  The farther from the basket the better.

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2 hours ago, Cowboy II said:

 

-so would it be extra beneficial to our chances to win this game to make their guards shoot jumpers as opposed to blowing by us and getting to the basket? in other words, keep them in front of us?

Be careful of what you wish.  In their twelve A10 conference games, the Flyers are second in the conference (to SLU) in 3%, 38.5% to our 38.9%.  So call it a push between the two teams.  In conference games, Brea is hitting 45% of his three's (25 of 55) , Elvis 48% (11 of 23), Blakney (who may not play) 41% (9 of 22), and Amzul 33% (14 of 42).  Smith, who also may not play, is at 50%, but only 5 of 10. 

Even Holmes is 43%, albeit 3 of 7.  Camera is 36% at 12 of 33.  Keep them off the arc, and keep Holmes and Camera away from the rim.  Sound difficult?

Bottom line, they can shoot jumpers.

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