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8 hours ago, Old guy said:

The one thing you are missing here is the number of deaths. As long as this remains relatively low, meaning people at large infected with the virus are not dying in a large scale, things will be OK vaccine or no vaccine. What is an acceptable death total from something like this, just compare it to the flu. We suffer flu epidemics every year that kill thousands of people without having a second thought about this. Things get serious when the death is much higher than the flu's. Things get unacceptable when the death rate reaches over 6 figures in the US. It becomes a true catastrophe it the number of deaths goes over 7 figures.

The rate of spread is important, and needs to be moderated, but only as a means to keep the number of deaths low in the acceptable range.

We lose about 20,000 - 40,000 per year to the flu.  Spain is closely tracking Italy in their rapidly increasing death totals.  They're probably 4-5 days behind.  We could see both countries hit 1,000 deaths a day in the next week.   At that rate, those two countries could lose 40,000 people in just a couple of months.  And we have a much larger population than either of those countries.  The math doesn't look good right now.  

 

 

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On 3/20/2020 at 6:31 PM, BIG BILL FAN said:

No, I’m saying that there are thousands of seasonal Chinese workers and many more who have relocated in Italy, which was a major factor in the spreading the disease. Not sure why this should be a controversial statement... I guess  facts disturb a certain segment of our society... I was just trying to point out why Italy was not a good comparison...pretty comical, people call you a troll but don’t refute your facts... it’s sad that some just blindly follow the lead of an uninformed source with out any interest in the truth...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3073987/stay-or-go-tough-call-chinese-italy-coronavirus-crisis-hits

Big Bill Fan, the virus vector was not driven principally by immigration nor by seasonal workers, it was brought back mainly by family members visiting China, being in the hot zones, getting infected, and returning home to Italy.

Once the virus vector hits an unvaccinated population, with zero immunity, it becomes a pure exponential biological model.

While Italy has 20 million more people, public transit and population densities are fairly similar in most of the ten largest cities in both.

Italy has 8.21 million people in Rome, Milan, Naples, Turin, Palermo, Genoa, bologna, Florence, bari, and Catania.

California has 9.91 million people in LA, San Diego, San Jose, San Francisco, Fresno, Sacramento, Long Beach, Oakland, Bakersfield, and Anaheim.

California has a lower population density outside it’s urban areas, but a larger population density inside its urban areas, with significant travel between them. 
We aren’t arguing facts, we are arguing which presentation of facts leads to a better understanding of how the virus/infection spread, and how to model possible spread in the US.

The Italian model is unfortunately being mimicked in Washington and New York. We will know in more complete detail as testing drills deeper into the epidemic.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-data-logarithm-chart.amp.html

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12 hours ago, Sheltiedave said:

You are right, Old Guy. You are one of the few who can SWAG about # of deaths with any degree of scientific validity, I don’t trespass there.

My concern is people refuse to accept and take sensible action based on the models we have available. If we don’t radically change our social behaviors over the next three months, we will rapidly blow through the safety net our hospitals and medical community provide.

Just stop loser, you are trying to create a story, not add to one. Saying, Italy is not comparable to the United States is not saying there isn’t a problem. Apparently you are cheering with glee at every death so you can come back on this board and say I told you so. The statements I made were 100% factual! What we have determined is that YOU HAVE BEEN QUOTED AS SAYING JIMMY BELL IS A HEAVY FOOTED TROLL... FALSELY ATTACKING OTHER IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE THE FACTS... I’m through with the discussion... 

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It seems like over the weekend the overall tone has changed somewhat.  A lot of people are starting to ask how many lives will be lost due to a 35% unemployment rate.

Then it looks like Pres Trump tweeted out last night (in all caps of course) - "We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem".  I also read that New York is allowing that malaria drug to be administered to treat Covid starting today.  The death rate seems not to be getting exponential on us and it seems like conditions in Washington state are improving.  I say "it seems" because I cannot keep straight what is actual info with all the slanted takes out there based on whatever viewpoint in the news you are looking for.

It also seems that the GOP Senate really does not want to send people monthly checks.  That seems to be the problem with the, "give a mouse a cookie" and having the govt float checks in the mail for rent/bills/etc of the normal American.  If people realize that the gov't can actually do things like this on a mass scale, it becomes very hard to take it away and stop the country from moving left on the spectrum.  I think GOP senate leadership will resist that at all costs.  I think they'd prefer to open up the economy and let Covid run its course.  So they will stick to the bailouts for corporations, loans, etc.... and the Dems will continue to be somehow blamed for any inaction, bc their ability to put out a coherent message is about equal to French at the free throw line.

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58 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said:

It seems like over the weekend the overall tone has changed somewhat.  A lot of people are starting to ask how many lives will be lost due to a 35% unemployment rate.

Then it looks like Pres Trump tweeted out last night (in all caps of course) - "We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem".  I also read that New York is allowing that malaria drug to be administered to treat Covid starting today.  The death rate seems not to be getting exponential on us and it seems like conditions in Washington state are improving.  I say "it seems" because I cannot keep straight what is actual info with all the slanted takes out there based on whatever viewpoint in the news you are looking for.

It also seems that the GOP Senate really does not want to send people monthly checks.  That seems to be the problem with the, "give a mouse a cookie" and having the govt float checks in the mail for rent/bills/etc of the normal American.  If people realize that the gov't can actually do things like this on a mass scale, it becomes very hard to take it away and stop the country from moving left on the spectrum.  I think GOP senate leadership will resist that at all costs.  I think they'd prefer to open up the economy and let Covid run its course.  So they will stick to the bailouts for corporations, loans, etc.... and the Dems will continue to be somehow blamed for any inaction, bc their ability to put out a coherent message is about equal to French at the free throw line.

At this point the Democrats do have a coherent message - take care of people first.  The problem is the GOP keep moving the goal posts.  Send a check to everyone - no wait send loans that are unsecured to essential corporations - no wait give money to anybody who are FoT - no wait give money to all corporations including Trump's business - no wait who knows what is next.  My point is as long as the objective keeps changing it is hard to do/say anything.  No matter what happens the Dems will be blamed since Trump has the bully pulpit and the media just keeps chasing the next shiny object he puts out there.  At this point, just beef up the unemployment benefits and develop a small business loan system and let the corporations borrow on the open market at virtually no interest unless they are willing to agree to use the money correctly and are willing to secure the money with equity in their companies.  Cruise lines are not essential nor are casinos and resorts.  I am sure there are more that others can think of.  

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Big ? about CV 19. The site I use to track #s is

 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/.

my ? is where it list total cases, then # died followed with cases recovered is this akin to c span showing votes where the total will eventually be deaths + recovered = totaled cases?

so as seen below if it was over now we would eventually have north of 30K dead if we never have another new case?  

Coronavirus Cases:

85,594 

Deaths:

1,300

Recovered:

1,868

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At this point, there is a disconnect between what the economy is doing and what the virus is actually doing. The economy has a life and a direction of its own that has become independent from the virus. Not a good thing.

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this morning on the radio i heard that 3% of the nationwide restaurants and bars will never reopen and each week that we remain in this holed up in our basements self imposed quarantine more will shutter.   when the small businesses of america are permanently shutting down that is not a good thing.   we are headed for 1930's depression like days if america doesnt get back to work.   deaths from suicide, crime etc will far exceed this chinese flu virus if it gets that bad.  pick your poison. 

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Spain has caught up to Italy in its number of daily deaths.  The question is how much worse is it going to get over there?  Are they going to lose 2,000 a day?  Because we have five times their population and our coronavirus graph looks a lot like theirs.  You do the math. 

What's an acceptable level of death?  You can't just complain about the economy.  To make a decision about the economy you first have to answer that question.

 

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27 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

this morning on the radio i heard that 3% of the nationwide restaurants and bars will never reopen and each week that we remain in this holed up in our basements self imposed quarantine more will shutter.   when the small businesses of america are permanently shutting down that is not a good thing.   we are headed for 1930's depression like days if america doesnt get back to work.   deaths from suicide, crime etc will far exceed this chinese flu virus if it gets that bad.  pick your poison. 

Economists do not agree with you. 

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Roy, every bar in the country was shuttered from 1920 to 1933. Somehow we survived.

Yes, we are headed toward a recession. We also are headed toward a catastrophic collapse of our health care system. In a race between being poorer, or being without adequate health care, the majority of the country will vote for being poor.

I know it is a simplistic argument, but these are the basic two tailed tracks we are on. We are both old enough to have walked though the tail end of polio wards. We grew up having parents who were children during the Depression/WW2. Just like they endured and overcame, we need to do the same.

Don’t believe me. Don’t even respect me. Ask your wife, the SLU BSN-RN, when she will allow you to stop taking a Z pack prescribed for a bad case of the flu. Is it the first day you feel better, or only when the script is exhausted?

When do you want to reopen New York City. It took less than three weeks to go from under 300 cases to over 30k. We went from 4 cases to hundreds in a week. The numbers don’t lie. 

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2 minutes ago, Sheltiedave said:

Roy, every bar in the country was shuttered from 1920 to 1933. Somehow we survived.

Yes, we are headed toward a recession. We also are headed toward a catastrophic collapse of our health care system. In a race between being poorer, or being without adequate health care, the majority of the country will vote for being poor.

I know it is a simplistic argument, but these are the basic two tailed tracks we are on. We are both old enough to have walked though the tail end of polio wards. We grew up having parents who were children during the Depression/WW2. Just like they endured and overcame, we need to do the same.

Don’t believe me. Don’t even respect me. Ask your wife, the SLU BSN-RN, when she will allow you to stop taking a Z pack prescribed for a bad case of the flu. Is it the first day you feel better, or only when the script is exhausted?

When do you want to reopen New York City. It took less than three weeks to go from under 300 cases to over 30k. We went from 4 cases to hundreds in a week. The numbers don’t lie. 

tell that to Governor Cuomo who is now having second thoughts on how he should have handled the crisis....maybe the evil orange man is smarter than some are giving credit to....

https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/cuomo-admits-that-quarantine-may-have-backfired-in-some-cases/

 

Sweeping statewide quarantine orders may not have been the most effective strategy to combat the coronavirus, Gov. Andrew Cuomo conceded on Thursday, as he weighed plans to restart the economy.

“We closed everything down. That was our public health strategy,” said Cuomo during an Albany press briefing. “If you re-thought that or had time to analyze that public health strategy, I don’t know that you would say ‘Quarantine everyone.'”

It’s the third day in a row that Cuomo has publicly mused about quarantines and how best to eventually restart the Empire State’s shattered economy.

But Wednesday, Cuomo’s answer during an hour-long news conference about quarantines — which are backed by city and state health officials — took a new turn as he speculated it might have spread the disease.

“I don’t even know that that was the best public health policy. Young people then quarantined with older people, [it] was probably not the best public health strategy,” he said. “The younger people could have been exposing the older people to an infection.”

So far, New York has clocked 37,258 confirmed cases and 385 deaths from COVID-19.

Cuomo’s office said the governor was referencing a study by a Yale professor, who wrote a column that appeared in the opinion section of the New York Times last week.

They pointed The Post to nearly identical comments Cuomo made about the topic during a press conference Monday, when he explicitly named the piece’s author, Dr. David Katz.

“There’s a theory of risk stratification that Dr. Katz who’s at Yale University is working on, which is actually very interesting to me,” Cuomo told reporters then. “Isolate people but really isolate the vulnerable people. Don’t isolate everyone because some people, most people, are not vulnerable to it.”

He added: “And if you isolate all people, you may be actually exposing the more vulnerable people by bringing in a person who is healthier and stronger and who may have been exposed to the virus, right.”

Cuomo has frequently countered his quarantine remarks by criticizing President Trump’s push to get business reopened by Easter, warning that the apex of the coronavirus pandemic in New York is still two to three weeks away.

“Why all of this? Because it’s 1 percent or 2 percent of the population. It’s lives, it’s grandmothers and grandfathers and sisters and brothers,” Cuomo said Tuesday, defending the lockdown. “And you start to see the cases on TV. It’s a 40-year-old woman who recovered from breast cancer but had a compromised immune system and four children at home. That’s what this is about. It’s about a vulnerable population.”

And he’s said that any restart would be conditioned upon the FDA approving tests that would allow doctors to determine if patients have immunity to the deadly disease.

“Younger people can go back to work. People who have resolved can go back to work,” Cuomo again said Wednesday. “People who — once we get this antibody test — show that they had the virus and they resolved can go back to work.

“That’s how I think you do it. … It’s not [that] we’re going to either do public health or we’re going to do economic development and restarting. We have to do both.”

 

 

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30 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

this morning on the radio i heard that 3% of the nationwide restaurants and bars will never reopen and each week that we remain in this holed up in our basements self imposed quarantine more will shutter.   when the small businesses of america are permanently shutting down that is not a good thing.   we are headed for 1930's depression like days if america doesnt get back to work.   deaths from suicide, crime etc will far exceed this chinese flu virus if it gets that bad.  pick your poison. 

This is such a painfully short-sighted misunderstanding of the situation. Comparing it to suicide or crime is a worthless point of reference. Calling it the “Chinese Flu” does nothing productive. Chinese-Americans in this country are already experiencing increasing racism and vitriol because of this pandemic, and you calling it that name only serves to politicize a national crisis and stoke the fires of disunity, which is the last thing we as Americans need right now.

Yes, there are real human/economic costs to shutting down this many businesses. People lose jobs, small businesses close, families lose houses, individuals lose healthcare, homelessness increases, people die, etc.. It is a very costly thing to shutdown the economy in this fashion. But there is a reason that our country is doing it, and that is to prevent the loss of millions of lives, which we have deemed to be a more damaging outcome.

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11 minutes ago, Sheltiedave said:

Roy, every bar in the country was shuttered from 1920 to 1933. Somehow we survived.

 

yes the great depression.  that is what i am saying.   we are headed to a recession if this doesnt change directions soon.  if yesterday's unemployment report didnt scare the hell our of you, you arent right. 

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12 minutes ago, Sheltiedave said:

Roy, every bar in the country was shuttered from 1920 to 1933. Somehow we survived.

Yes, we are headed toward a recession. We also are headed toward a catastrophic collapse of our health care system. In a race between being poorer, or being without adequate health care, the majority of the country will vote for being poor.

I know it is a simplistic argument, but these are the basic two tailed tracks we are on. We are both old enough to have walked though the tail end of polio wards. We grew up having parents who were children during the Depression/WW2. Just like they endured and overcame, we need to do the same.

Don’t believe me. Don’t even respect me. Ask your wife, the SLU BSN-RN, when she will allow you to stop taking a Z pack prescribed for a bad case of the flu. Is it the first day you feel better, or only when the script is exhausted?

When do you want to reopen New York City. It took less than three weeks to go from under 300 cases to over 30k. We went from 4 cases to hundreds in a week. The numbers don’t lie. 

there is no reason we cant selectively open different areas of the country as the statistics come down accordingly.   to blindly just close america was/is a mistake.   

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3 minutes ago, NH said:

Calling it the “Chinese Flu” does nothing productive. Chinese-Americans in this country are already experiencing increasing racism and vitriol because of this pandemic, and you calling it that name only serves to politicize a national crisis and stoke the fires of disunity, which is the last thing we as Americans need right now.

 

in my view, it started in china, it is another strain of the flu and it is a virus.   

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4 minutes ago, Sheltiedave said:

We also are headed toward a catastrophic collapse of our health care system. In a race between being poorer, or being without adequate health care, the majority of the country will vote for being poor.

There has not been a collapse yet and a good chance there will not be a catastrophic collapse.

Our government and corporations are in overdrive producing ventilators.  Examples are GM and Ford will mass produce the much needed ventilators.  Locally Davis tool and dye has dropped everything to produce the dyes for GM, my close friend is making the dyes.

In New York the hospital ship will reach port on Sunday.

Our country has the toughness and means to keep this from being a catastrophe.

Our country is the most informed about this virus the numbers of cases, and best possible practices to stop the spread.

I respectfully disagree with your majority comment would vote for adequate health care with the cost of being poor. However If you meant having less wealth and for adequate health care then I am all in on that comment.

Happy Friday be well everyone

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9 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

in my view, it started in china, it is another strain of the flu and it is a virus.   

Pandemics don’t have an ethnicity. That is not the name of the virus. That name only serves to increase xenophobia and harassment towards Asian-Americans living in our country. If you need to change the name of the virus to “Chinese flu” to make yourself feel better about it, then that’s one of the more immature reactions I can imagine having.

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I thought we had a slightly more intelligent basketball following. can't believe some people think it's a good idea to reopen everything in the next few weeks despite every scientist and medical professional recommending against it. I'm sure someone is going to find some random nypost article misquoting a no name doctor in alabama saying that we would be fine if everything opened back up, but I think it's extremely selfish to even think about opening things back up. 

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31 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

there is no reason we cant selectively open different areas of the country as the statistics come down accordingly.   to blindly just close america was/is a mistake.   

Are you going to make sure people don't leave NYC? Or Florida? Or Seattle? Or Louisiana? People move throughout the Country. 

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prior to yesterday the largest one week new unemployment filings record wasnt even close to yesterday.   650,000 claims was the highest ever.   yesterday we had a report that showed 3.3 million filings.   we are on the doorstep of disaster.   none of us lived through the great depression.   the stories that has been passed down are horrible conditions.   to think that wont happen is naive.  

i am not saying open the entire world.   there is ways to strategically open areas as they are deemed safe or not in as much trouble as areas like spain, nyc, italy etc.   also, it is apparent that americans have now gotten the message and are being more cautious and proactive in taking care to not spread the virus.   surely americans that know they are sick and contageous for the most part can do the right thing.   yes all need to be safe, but we also have to get back to work.   this drags on for months we are in trouble big time.  

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2 minutes ago, RiseAndGrind said:

Are you going to make sure people don't leave NYC? Or Florida? Or Seattle? Or Louisiana? People move throughout the Country. 

big mouth arrogant coumo is the governor for a reason.   that's his job.   same with the other high risk areas.   do their jobs.  

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36 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

yes the great depression.  that is what i am saying.   we are headed to a recession if this doesnt change directions soon.  if yesterday's unemployment report didnt scare the hell our of you, you arent right. 

We are not headed to a recession we are in a recession. This is a universal opinion of economists. 

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