The Wiz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 General Outlook.... Dayton comes in with an A+ and a lock on a Dance bid at this time...We remain at C. Had we lost the St. J game we would have dropped to C-. The trend is starting to turn up for The Bills ..at least on offense. ...Second report card in a row where offense was up. Defense is holding ...low and steady. I would like to point out a worrisome stat...one that needs to be fixed if we are to make continued progress. ...Opponent TOs...This hasn't been good all season (9.9 /gm= grade F)...I bring it up now because it is getting worse...In the last 3 games our opponents are averaging 6.3 TOs /gm ...3rd worst ITN over the last 3 games. Generally, if you have 10 TOs/gm you have had a pretty good game UNLESS your opponent is only turning over 6...A negative 4 TO spread is unacceptable . We have to start bothering other teams and get that rate up. It looks like we are making more of an effort but so far it hasn't generated better results...Rant over...fix it. While our overall numbers have improved some...we are still in the PIG pen....1st Priority is to get out of the sty. Let's look at this game to see if we can take a step up. Game Preview....At first glance (and 2nd glance) it doesn't look promising. I haven't put up too many spreads where the Bills are down nearly 20 pts. A win over Day would be a true upset...With my numbers you need to beat a team that is a full 2 letters above you to be an upset...This qualifies. In fact to rush the floor you need to beat a top 25 team...Day is currently 18th on the NET...8th on the Wiz rankings. Although no one will be rushing the floor in Day if The Bills pull off an upset. So is all hope lost...heck no...Where there is a will, there is a way. First let me make a couple of points...We have established that Day is a great team..an A+ team...but we have already played another great team ...A+ and on a neutral floor an even spread with Day...Utah St ...We battled them down to the end of the game and with an additional basket near the end could have pulled it out. So we can play with an A+ team. But how can we beat the Flyers ? Did you know that Day only scores 73.4 pts a game... you say, they only give up 64.5 /gm. Did you know that St J has a better D than Day and we scored 88pts against them...Let's look at the defense cards before both teams played the Bills Def............Day........St. J PPG...........A-...........B+ FG%..........B............A+...6th ITN 3P%..........C+...........A- Reb............B- ..........C AND we scored 88 against St. J So what's the point of this long report on a lopsided game.... For 1 thing , this is what happens when the wind chill drops to -18...hmmm same as the spread.... and my evening was canceled by weather . But the main point here is ...play like you did against St. J (with a few more opp TOs) and we can win this game. Is it a long shot? ...Sure ...but so was scoring 88 pts against St. J. Let's take a look at this game's report card.... Report Card.... The card is positive this game with no categories down and 3 up ...all on offense.... .................SLU............Day................SLU..........................Day ...........................OFF..........................................DEF............. PPG..........C....................C-..................D-............................A- FG%.........C....................B+...................D-...........................B 3P%........A+...16th ITN...A+...5th ITN...D+..........................C+ FT%.........C+....................A-..................................................... Reb.........D-.....................D-.....................D+...........................B- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....PPG...3P%...FT%....Def....FG%...none Down.........Off......none....Def....none Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...34th...up Day FT%...Elvis ....3rd (97.2%) 3P%...Brea...44th (48.3%)...Santos ...51st(48.1%) PPG....Holmes...53rd (18.7) Blks.......".....".....28th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... None...Finally Day... Smith....Nov 9....Knee...out for season Padegimes...Jan12...Illness ...questionable Keys to the Game.......Holmes leads the team in PPG...rebs...FG% and blks...stop Holmes ...win the game...also 2 of the hottest shooting 3P teams ITN...which ever team wins this battle will have the upper hand. WWN2D2W...Target slash...50/40/75....Hold Day to 72pts....Match Day on TOs AND Rebs....Keep Brea and Santos under 40% from the arc ....Hold Holmes to 15 pts...no double -doubles for him..... Match team FTM Bottom line.... If we can flood the arc with 3s We can wash away the Day Noah way , you say Then let's make it a 2s day. Adman likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I still do not understand how we managed to beat St. Joe. I think you are entirely correct in your estimate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLU_Nick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Good post Wiz. Dark times Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 CTF is going to shock the A-10 by unleashing Stef VanBussel to neutralize Holmes. Look for the return of the Arch Baron Cup to St. Louis. Better not bet the house on it though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOSLU68 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 SVB does something no one else can or is willing to do- use his toughness to impose on the lane and play near the basket- everyone else wants to be out at the key or sideline- this is the least imposing Ford team we have witnessed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 9 hours ago, Old guy said: I still do not understand how we managed to beat St. Joe. I think you are entirely correct in your estimate. St. Joes foolishly played zone for several possessions in a row. Bills got the ball to the middle, found the open shooter and knocked down shot after shot, making six threes in a row and 9 of 12. Major coaching blunder by Lange. Going 14-15 from the stripe in the second half was huge as well. TheChosenOne likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeniceMenace Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 8 hours ago, CenHudDude said: CTF is going to shock the A-10 by unleashing Stef VanBussel to neutralize Holmes. Look for the return of the Arch Baron Cup to St. Louis. Better not bet the house on it though. This is known as the JLove-breaks-Kenyon Martin’s-leg strategy. MariaReynolds and CenHudDude like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 hours ago, billikenbill said: St. Joes foolishly played zone for several possessions in a row. Bills got the ball to the middle, found the open shooter and knocked down shot after shot, making six threes in a row and 9 of 12. Major coaching blunder by Lange. Going 14-15 from the stripe in the second half was huge as well. OK, that may indeed have been what happened, but it is none of our business to deal with the mistakes of others, just to take advantage of them. This may well have been the case. I tell you all that I have been watching lots of college basketball lately. We just cannot play at the level of someone like Maryland or Kentucky, period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MusicCityBilliken Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 35 minutes ago, VeniceMenace said: This is known as the JLove-breaks-Kenyon Martin’s-leg strategy. We had a really tough group on that team: Tatem, Heinrich & Baniak. If a opposing player made a drive to the basket, they were mugged. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, VeniceMenace said: This is known as the JLove-breaks-Kenyon Martin’s-leg strategy. Ha Ha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Holly Hills Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, VeniceMenace said: This is known as the JLove-breaks-Kenyon Martin’s-leg strategy. MSU (then southwest Missouri state), MU, ILL, and SLU all went to the tournament that year. VeniceMenace likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, Old guy said: OK, that may indeed have been what happened, but it is none of our business to deal with the mistakes of others, just to take advantage of them. This may well have been the case. I tell you all that I have been watching lots of college basketball lately. We just cannot play at the level of someone like Maryland or Kentucky, period. Considering we’ve never played at that level, it doesn’t concern me that much. Those programs can make Final Fours and win natties. SLU is a mid-major program hoping to maximize the skills of 3-star talent, and the occasional local 4-star guy who wants to play near home. Making the dance and getting to the Sweet 16 is as far as it goes. Sure would like to see it once. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 hours ago, Old guy said: OK, that may indeed have been what happened, but it is none of our business to deal with the mistakes of others, just to take advantage of them. This may well have been the case. I tell you all that I have been watching lots of college basketball lately. We just cannot play at the level of someone like Maryland or Kentucky, period. In other news, water is wet. I'd just like to play at the level of Dayton or VCU consistently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 18 hours ago, White Pelican said: In other news, water is wet. I'd just like to play at the level of Dayton or VCU consistently. Don't you know that is a preposterous expectation!? How dare you set such lofty goals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 SLU, VCU, and Dayton commit the most resources to their programs in the A10. These three programs should more or less be locks for top-4 spots every season. Two of them pretty much are - I think both VCU and Dayton have missed the top 4 twice in the past decade. SLU has made it 4 times, not winning the conference outright since 2014. It's just not good enough. Regarding the Wiz's line of 18 points, the most likely way we get there is to leave the starters in when we're down 25-30 and close the gap with a few late 3-pointers. We've done it a few times already this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Dayton is a consistent team that has been winning on defense and timely offense. Their first three conference opponents have not managed to break 62 points and the Flyers themselves have not scored over 72. We have been a consistently weak road team and poor defensively. If we could just manage to play average defense for one game, we can hang around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said: Dayton is a consistent team that has been winning on defense and timely offense. Their first three conference opponents have not managed to break 62 points and the Flyers themselves have not scored over 72. We have been a consistently weak road team and poor defensively. If we could just manage to play average defense for one game, we can hang around. Ahh...being average and consistent. A little over a year ago ( Dec11, 2022), I started a topic ..."The Average Path to Greatness" ...talking about how if the Bills could just play average(their average) we would win more games...the stats would be the same with more wins. The real underlying issue was consistency. Good offense one night with bad defense and then vice versa the next game. At the time I wrote the post we had just come off 2 straight losses ( Iona & Boise St.)after a 7-2 start to the season. After I posted, we beat a good Drake team and then suffered a crushing loss to SIU-e. I had The Bills as a 16 pt fav in that one...SLU = B+ ...SIU=D+ . That game pretty much killed any post season hopes plus put a damper on the rest of the season. Why do I bring this up now? Because that post and thread from a year ago still apply ....not to mention the years preceding 2022-23. Just play average ball (average Billiken ball on a consistent basis -offense and defense) and we win more games. That applied in the past. it applies in the present and it will apply in the future. The last time we had consistent success (year in and year out ) was during the RM years. There may have been more skilled teams than RM but there were no teams that were more consistent. We have a D rated defense...does that mean we should play to that level? Obviously not. Did you know that on TOs (a key component of defense)we were A rated...at the beginning of the year ...In the last month we are F rated on TOs....A to F in the same season = inconsistency. Bottom line....Play consistently = win consistently....check out my 12/11/22 thread...still relevant today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billikenbooster Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 So drill down a little. What has been the difference in those two periods? Personnel? Philosophy? Injuries? My bias is less LH in the more recent period. I believe his injury has made him less effective as a defender, and he has made a series of bonehead TO’s which are very uncharacteristic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Only SLU stat that matters is 3pt%. SLU needs 60% to beat Dayton. Anything less and we lose. Y'all need to start paying attention to this. SLU defense is f_&$ing garbage. Worst I've ever seen in 30+ years. We shot the ball at a historic, jaw-dropping, NBA-busting rate. If we shot like that vs the Pistons we would have a chance to win. That's not normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 3 hours ago, Soderball said: Only SLU stat that matters is 3pt%. SLU needs 60% to beat Dayton. Anything less and we lose. Y'all need to start paying attention to this. SLU defense is f_&$ing garbage. Worst I've ever seen in 30+ years. We shot the ball at a historic, jaw-dropping, NBA-busting rate. If we shot like that vs the Pistons we would have a chance to win. That's not normal. So if we shoot 100% from the arc...we win? Even if are 1-1 from the 3pt line. Duly noted. CenHudDude likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Elrond Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, The Wiz said: So if we shoot 100% from the arc...we win? Even if are 1-1 from the 3pt line. Duly noted. Why limit ourselves? Aim for 150% from 3 pt range! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyRican Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 TIFT! Trust in Ford Tuesday, Bills by 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 hours ago, The Wiz said: So if we shoot 100% from the arc...we win? Even if are 1-1 from the 3pt line. Duly noted. Yes; if Ezewiro morphs into Wilt Chamberlain, drops 70 points, and we only shoot 1 three as a result, we will win. that is correct. SLU shot 54% from trey against St Joes. That's the reason SLU won.(and St Joe's shooting was crap in comparison.. 38/34 yuck. if SLU shoots that we get wrecked) Our defense is so incomprehensibly bad that this is how the game is for us. We can only limit points by reducing total possessions in the 40 minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Ford keeping the starters in down 25 with 4 mins left against Dayton's walk-ons will get this down to a respectable final score. Or burnergate turned around the season and we win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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