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Mem over The Bills by 7


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The EIU game concludes the Cupcake  portion of the season. These games turned out to be valuable....They let the Bills build some confidence, tap into some of their potential and do  a little gelling.  It would have been nice if we could have then transitioned into some harder games...say a C rated team but instead we are going straight from the freezer to the oven as we face A rated Memphis.

 
Before we get started here ...let's do some trivia questions. ...Trivia with a purpose.
 
1...What team is most like Memphis from a competitive standpoint?... ie The game would be even on a neutral court.
2...What venue is most like the Pyramid?... ie This court would be just as difficult for a visiting team as the Pyramid
3...If we played Mem  at the Fetz, who wins?
 
Answers
 
1. St. B...When I search the database for the team most likely to play Mem even...St. B appears..... ...This is interesting...Both are A teams . Memphis is ranked 12th.   St. B is not ranked.  Memphis is not a ranked team on my list (probably a bit over ranked by the voters) ... We know that St. B  is a good team that will likely get a dance bid  but know one here would be ringing their hands going...OMG...It's St. B ...Oh woe is me.   We would say ...this is a tough game that we can win...need to do the same with this Mem game.
 
2...The Pyramid is a very tough venue to play in for visiting teams. Again a search of the database for a similar difficult venue turns up...Dayton.  We know Dayton well...it is home team friendly arena but we have won their before and likewise  we can win in the Pyramid.
 
3...The Bills would be favored in a game at the Fetz today.  The point of this question is to show how close these teams are on a competitive level. You say how can that be .  That is because the Bills currently grade out at A-  just a shade below Mem. But wait ..the Bills have played a cupcake schedule...well so has Mem....both teams grade out at F on SOS.   So when you dig deeper into the data , The Bills actually matchup pretty well against Mem.
 
Let's look at the report card.
 
 
..........................SLU............................................Mem..........................................SLU.....................................Mem

...................................................OFF.........................................................................................DEF...............

PPG............................A+...7 ITN.............................B+............................................A.........................................B+

FG%...........................A+...17th ITN..........................A+...19th ITN..........................A.........................................A+..15th ITN

3Pt%...........................A-...........................................A.............................................C..........................................A+..17th ITN

FT%.............................B.............................................D............................................................................................

Reb.............................A-............................................C+...........................................A+...9th ITN.......................B

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP.......OFF......PPG...FG%,,,,FT%...Reb..........DEF....PPG..FG%..3P%...Reb

Down...OFF..3P% 

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

Assts...Collins...5th

FG%...Traore....63rd (75%) ...Linssen...89th (72.2%)  

Double-Double....Collins...17th....Okoro....17th

Mem

FG%....Duren....57th (76.9%)
Blks......Duren... 8th (4blks)...Danbridge ...72nd

 

WWN2D2W

We need to take care of the ball....We have done that so far . We have averaged an excellent 10.5 TOs /gm.  Meanwhile , Mem has averaged 18 PER GAME. Remember, this is against the same bad competition we played. This is their Achilles heel.  If we can maintain a spread of 8+ TOs, we will win this game.  ...Rebounds ... The data shows we can outrebound them. ....We need to shoot well.  ....50/40/80....these numbers are not pie in the sky ...we are doing them.  This game again presents the fly swatter problem. They have not one but 2 swatters...Duren and Danbridge....together they average 6 to 7 blocks /game....be more selective on the shots ...I thought we deed a pretty good job against Hamlin...the EIU swatter...a good warmup for this game.  ...one last thing ...they are a bad shooting FT team.. we can beat them at the charity stripe...when was the last time we could say that.

Bottom line...We  need to shoot well ...we need to press them and force errors.  We need to come out and set the tempo of the game right from the opening bell. If we make a few baskets  and take care of the ball...Memphis could be singing the blues.

 

 

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Wiz, glad your estimate is only 7 in favor of Memphis. We all know Memphis will be favored by the Vegas line as well, it remains to be seen by how much. Your analysis supports my analysis of prior games played by SLU and Memphis that I posted today. I think we will out rebound them, and also think we will have lower TOs than they will. As far as the blocks go with their two human fly swatters, Duren appears to be their primary fly swatter and Dandridge appears to be a reserve. Duren has been playing longer than Dandridge since the OOC started for Memphis. So, if we can neutralize Duren somehow we might have an easier time in beating them.

 I think we can beat Memphis, but we have to wait until Tuesday to find out.

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21 minutes ago, Bills By 40 said:

The Bonnies are ranked 23rd in the country...no?

You are correct ...23 AP Poll ...24 Coaches Poll....Neither made The Wiz's Top 25.

It will be interesting to see if St. B can hang on to their ranking after the close call with D-  rated  Canisius.

I have already downgraded St. B to A- and even with The Bills.  Let's hope that same downgrade happens to Mem tomorrow.

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Folks, this is a road game against a team with two lottery picks. I believe in Ford outcoaching Penny and Yuri being our floor general, but it's the first real road game for a lot of these guys and Memphis is crazy athletic. Our most talented player is also going to try to prove something to the opposition, and that doesn't always turn out great.

I can't wait to watch the game. If it's close with less than 10 minutes left, I consider it a win. If the final margin ends up being 20, but the game felt closer, a win. Or maybe Memphis is up 22 with 8 minutes left and we cut it to 8. 

Lots need to go right to win. Things I'm concerned about

  • Jimerson missing a couple of open shots and getting exploited on D
  • Linssen picking up two fouls in first four minutes
  • Nesbitt picking up charges
  • lack of size getting exposed
  • trying to play bully ball against a more athletic team

On the other hand, a single-digit loss means this team is probably top 4 in the A-10. 

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There is a very wide range of outcomes I can see for this game. We have the personnel to play with Memphis but this will be the best defense we'll see all year and I still think we are figuring out a lot offensively without Perkins. Jimerson was really good against LSU last year so I have confidence he can play a big role. But we do need multiple guys who can knock down 3's tomorrow night 

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1 hour ago, slufan13 said:

There is a very wide range of outcomes I can see for this game. We have the personnel to play with Memphis but this will be the best defense we'll see all year and I still think we are figuring out a lot offensively without Perkins. Jimerson was really good against LSU last year so I have confidence he can play a big role. But we do need multiple guys who can knock down 3's tomorrow night 

LSU was a poor defensive team.  They won games with their offense and we just outgunned them that night.  Even with Perkins having one of the all time Billiken offensive performances, it was undecided until the final minute.  

We've never lit up a strong defensive team.  My dream scenario is we get their key defenders in foul trouble.

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18 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

LSU was a poor defensive team.  They won games with their offense and we just outgunned them night.  Even with Perkins having one of the all time Billiken offensive performances, it was undecided until the final minute.  

We've never lit up a strong defensive team.  My dream scenario is we get their key defenders in foul trouble.

The Wiz really nails the issue for Memphis, can they avoid turnovers. They have a good PG, but not a Collins level PG. How will they look when they face a team that can cover an extra 6 inches in the passing lanes? That said, Duren and Bates will probably score some baskets where no one could really stop it. We also have a lot of guys who could get hit from the outside.

This game is similar to the FSU game from 2018/19. We got trounced because of the overall talent on that FSU team. I think our overall talent level is a lot better (meaning the bench too). PG play is a lot better. Our ability to get points from outside is night and day better. Our 2018/19 team struggled to play with low level teams, and these guys are blowing teams out by 40 points. We definitely have a shot here.

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21 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said:

 

This game is similar to the FSU game from 2018/19. We got trounced because of the overall talent on that FSU team. I think our overall talent level is a lot better (meaning the bench too). PG play is a lot better. Our ability to get points from outside is night and day better. Our 2018/19 team struggled to play with low level teams, and these guys are blowing teams out by 40 points. We definitely have a shot here.

Florida state was an older team, and it was near the middle of the schedule. Memphis is still learning to play

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