Crewsorlose Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 Assuming Friday is against UMass, that won't move the NET much. Saturday against the Bonnies could provide a nice bump. Maybe to the 37-39 range. Then a loss to VCU might hold us in the top 40. Still very tight. Gotta wonder if Ford would schedule another game next week against a team like Memphis if the team has a NET of 38 and 8 days off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 55 minutes ago, Crewsorlose said: Assuming Friday is against UMass, that won't move the NET much. Given how last night went, I think a comfortable win 10+ on a neutral court would give us at least 5 spots. Fraz likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crewsorlose Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 We forget how NET can fluctuate "early" in the season and it includes margin of victory and loss. UMass has only played 14 games so a 33-point victory on a neutral court gave it a NET bump from 129 to 109. I'm assuming that's why our NET went up 3 spots to 40 without playing a game. I still think the Bills need to win today and tomorrow. But I'm more confident now that winning those two games probably means an at-large bid. We're now 40th in KenPom as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Crewsorlose said: We forget how NET can fluctuate "early" in the season and it includes margin of victory and loss. UMass has only played 14 games so a 33-point victory on a neutral court gave it a NET bump from 129 to 109. I'm assuming that's why our NET went up 3 spots to 40 without playing a game. I still think the Bills need to win today and tomorrow. But I'm more confident now that winning those two games probably means an at-large bid. We're now 40th in KenPom as well. In my opinion, if we miss the tournament it is solely because of our lack of road wins. Hoping the committee values a couple neutral site wins here. HoosierPal likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Just now, slufan13 said: In my opinion, if we miss the tournament it is solely because of our lack of road wins. Hoping the committee values a couple neutral site wins here. In the past I have read that the committee places a decent value on neutral site games because the tournament is neutral site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUBillsFan Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 31 minutes ago, Crewsorlose said: We forget how NET can fluctuate "early" in the season and it includes margin of victory and loss. UMass has only played 14 games so a 33-point victory on a neutral court gave it a NET bump from 129 to 109. I'm assuming that's why our NET went up 3 spots to 40 without playing a game. I still think the Bills need to win today and tomorrow. But I'm more confident now that winning those two games probably means an at-large bid. We're now 40th in KenPom as well. I had forgotten until yesterday about this kinda neat "tool" on the TRank website that let's you plug in results for future games and see where a team is projected as far as NCAA tournament hopes. https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Saint+Louis&year=2021 I don't think it is totally reasonable, but a decent way to judge where we would stand in various scenarios. The key for me isn't whether or not we are "IN" or not, but the bid % we have. Unless we win the whole thing we really can't get much better than 50/50 for a bid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compton Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 36 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said: The key for me isn't whether or not we are "IN" or not, but the bid % we have. Huh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUBillsFan Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 21 minutes ago, Compton said: Huh? If you look at the current info on TRank it lists teams a IN the tournament (3rd to last team IN), but there is also a column for bid% that I think is the odds we would get an at-large bid. Eventhough TRank has us "IN" right now, we only have a 32.5% chance of actually getting an at-large bid because there are a bunch of other teams right below that % that are "OUT" and also the possibility of fewer at-larges because of teams who wouldn't otherwise get an at-large winning their conference tournaments. Estimating IN or OUT of the tournament right now doesn't really tell you anything except one guy's or one formula's guess. That bid % number is more useful I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juniorbill76 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adman Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 7 hours ago, RUBillsFan said: I had forgotten until yesterday about this kinda neat "tool" on the TRank website that let's you plug in results for future games and see where a team is projected as far as NCAA tournament hopes. https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Saint+Louis&year=2021 I don't think it is totally reasonable, but a decent way to judge where we would stand in various scenarios. The key for me isn't whether or not we are "IN" or not, but the bid % we have. Unless we win the whole thing we really can't get much better than 50/50 for a bid. Interesting tool, thanks for sharing. For what it's worth, here are the scenarios and results presuming we play VCU: Odds to NCAA Tourney Seed Today post UMass victory: 40.3 11, 3rd of Last Four Byes After beating Bonnies: 72.3% 10 After losing to VCU 59.8% 11, 2nd of Last Four Byes After beating VCU 100% (obviously) 9 But really curious how close this is to Wiz prediction. In Wiz I trust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010andBeyond Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 Up to 36 today, a bit better than I expected. I’m increasingly optimistic that a win today will get us in. David King, BilliesBy40 and Crewsorlose like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fraz Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 35 minutes ago, 2010andBeyond said: Up to 36 today, a bit better than I expected. I’m increasingly optimistic that a win today will get us in. Win and we’re definitely in.. lose a close game I still think we’d be top 40 NET and feel okay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe_davola Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Fraz said: Win and we’re definitely in.. lose a close game I still think we’d be top 40 NET and feel okay I honestly think we are on the outside looking in if we lose today. Hell I don’t want to take the chance of winning today and losing in the final. Totally get what you are saying that we will still have a NET 40 but in no way would I feel okay. I would be sweating bullets on Selection Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fraz Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, joe_davola said: I honestly think we are on the outside looking in if we lose today. Hell I don’t want to take the chance of winning today and losing in the final. Totally get what you are saying that we will still have a NET 40 but in no way would I feel okay. I would be sweating bullets on Selection Sunday. Lunardi has Colorado St, Boise, and Xavier all in his Last 4 IN. Each with bad/significant losses in the last 7 days. They have all tumbled in the NET but not bracketology. Colorado State and Boise play in the MWC quarterfinal. This is a virtual play in game so a spot will open up. NextYearBill likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slu let the dogs out? Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 43 minutes ago, 2010andBeyond said: Up to 36 today, a bit better than I expected. I’m increasingly optimistic that a win today will get us in. Samesies. Obviously it depends on where our opponents end in the NET (and I just briefly glanced at NET rankings on my phone while trying to feed a nagging little 6 month old) but win today and lose to VCU in the finals and we’d likely finish with a record of 15-6, 3-2 in Q1, and a NET in the high 30s. How about we just win the whole damn thing and enter the tourney as a 10 seed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 Updated NCAA NET for the A10 Final 4: Bona 28, VCU 35, SLU 36, Davidson 60. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 Part of our +14 NET jump was due to NCState becoming a Q2 win and St. Bonnie becoming a Q1 win. St. B and LSU are barely in Q1. We win today and St. B could go back to Q2. Slu let the dogs out? likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsBeliever!!! Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 In the 2019 NCAA Tournament, only two teams in the NET top 40 got left out, NC State (33) who had the #352 SOS and was horrible in Q1, and Clemson (35), who had similar issues. win today and I think we’re in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 I don't understand the Bonnies ranking. I'm glad they have it as it help us. But they have 1 win at home against VCU that is decent. They have losses to @RI, @SLU, @VCU, and home vs Dayton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slu let the dogs out? Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, HoosierPal said: Part of our +14 NET jump was due to NCState becoming a Q2 win and St. Bonnie becoming a Q1 win. St. B and LSU are barely in Q1. We win today and St. B could go back to Q2. Fingers crossed Bona can somehow stay top 30 if we win today. A nice SEC tourney run by LSU would be neato. First things first: a win today in Columbia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, BillsBeliever!!! said: In the 2019 NCAA Tournament, only two teams in the NET top 40 got left out, NC State (33) who had the #352 SOS and was horrible in Q1, and Clemson (35), who had similar issues. win today and I think we’re in. i say we also need a VCU win. a loss to VCU in the championship wont kill us. a loss to davidson will imo. the committee is not letting 4 A-10 teams in. I say VCU and St Bonnie's are in regardless. so this tourney now is us and davidson for the last spot for the A10 HoosierPal likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe_davola Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, billiken_roy said: i say we also need a VCU win. a loss to VCU in the championship wont kill us. a loss to davidson will imo. the committee is not letting 4 A-10 teams in. I say VCU and St Bonnie's are in regardless. so this tourney now is us and davidson for the last spot for the A10 Agreed. We need vcu in the final and we need to win today. Before this tourney started I felt we had to win the whole thing...I’m more and more comfortable thinking we get in if we beat the bonnies today and have a close loss to VCU in the finals (although I know we can beat them). We absolutely have to win the entire tourney imo if Davidson makes it to the final. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 43 minutes ago, slufanskip said: I don't understand the Bonnies ranking. I'm glad they have it as it help us. But they have 1 win at home against VCU that is decent. They have losses to @RI, @SLU, @VCU, and home vs Dayton. They are 4-3 in Q1/2 and 6-1 in Q3 with the loss to #80 Dayton. We are also 4-3 in Q1/2 but 4-2 in Q3, with that butt-ugly loss to #202 LaSalle in addition to #80 Dayton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 So based on all this ..... go Bills, go VCU today? joe_davola likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 1 hour ago, HoosierPal said: They are 4-3 in Q1/2 and 6-1 in Q3 with the loss to #80 Dayton. We are also 4-3 in Q1/2 but 4-2 in Q3, with that butt-ugly loss to #202 LaSalle in addition to #80 Dayton. Grouping Q1 and Q2 together makes it look equal. However we have 2 Q1 wins they have 0 The quadrant system is stupid anyway. Considering a win against the 31st team and the 75th team equal is ridiculous. Or we could beat Gonzaga at home or Furman on the road and they're equal. I just don't see any sort of realistic evaluation that puts the Bonnies as higher ranked than us. And I know it doesn't count this way but it should WE BEAT THEM BY DOUBLE DIGITS Either way it's in our hands tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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