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SLU & NCAA Corona Virus Discussion


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3 hours ago, courtside said:

On March 11, you said Sean Hannity was the only person downplaying COVID-19 at Fox News and the right, your words, not mine.

You deferred to Old Guy as the board expert. He said many times COVID-19 U.S. deaths would be below 26,000. You, Brian, even said, "I think Old Guy projection will be closer than anything we got from models that were touted as gospel early on." "Old Guy clearly knew what he was talking about here." .....that was from April 14.

You have also had a repeated pattern of downplaying the lack of preparedness and poor response. 

You supported calling it the Chinese virus and Wuhan virus.

You supported Tucker Carlson, the same Tucker Carlson who said, "The curve flattened but quarantine had nothing to do with it. The virus just isn't nearly as deadly as we thought it was." ...among many other distrasous things.

You have enabled and condoned dangerous and unproven medications for the treatment of COVID-19.

 

 

 

 

I watch Tucker every night, he said there is no scientific proof that social distancing had anything to do with flattening the curve and the reason is because we do not know how many people actually had COVID-19.

Tucker said it could be true just no proof.

Your a good poster on this site I really like your opinion on Billiken basketball and I wish everyone will stop posting on a thread that brings out the worst in us when Billiken fans have so much to be excited about.

@dennis_w don’t leave when the best of the Billikens is coming I hope you stick around to share in the excitement of an A10 championship and a run to the final 4.

Be well Billiken fans.

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7 minutes ago, CBFan said:

I watch Tucker every night, he said there is no scientific proof that social distancing had anything to do with flattening the curve and the reason is because we do not know how many people actually had COVID-19.

Tucker said it could be true just no proof.

Your a good poster on this site I really like your opinion on Billiken basketball and I wish everyone will stop posting on a thread that brings out the worst in us when Billiken fans have so much to be excited about.

@dennis_w don’t leave when the best of the Billikens is coming I hope you stick around to share in the excitement of an A10 championship and a run to the final 4.

Be well Billiken fans.

I really do appreciate the kind words. Thanks. The virus is obviously and unfortunately an important topic. I've known people affected of various ages and backgrounds. And that discussion is limited to this thread.

I'm about to post in women's soccer and another thread in a minute. Maybe just read those threads. 

For fairness sakes, this is the video of what Tucker Carlson said, and how he said it, in his own words. Why don't we agree to just let him speak for himself and let people form their own conclusions? Fair? I found a clip:

https://twitter.com/ndrew_lawrence/status/1254926131570126848?s=19

 

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6 hours ago, brianstl said:

Germany and Switzerland basically had the same responses and response timeline.  Switzerland has actually tested more people on a per capita basis than Germany.  The Swiss have a higher morbidity rate than the US and Germany has a remarkably low morbidity rate.  Why is that?  Well a huge part of that is because in Germany the virus up to this point has not spread among seniors at the rate it has in the rest of the world.  

Cuomo's order forcing senior facilities to take COVID patients is a major reason New York's death rate is so high. 

Comparing Germany and Switzerland's test counts are like comparing apples to oranges.  Switzerland's morbidity rate is higher because their testing is heavily weighted to strongly symptomatic people.  For a month of half, in fact, that's the only people they've tested.  From a March 10 article:

https://www.cnnmoney.ch/shows/big-picture/videos/coronavirus-count-switzerland

The Swiss government is abandoning efforts to keep a close count of coronavirus cases to focus instead on easing the burden on the healthcare system and protecting those most at risk of dying such as the elderly. 
 
“The government has decided that they will only test people who are at risk, who have strong symptoms,” said Michael Hengartner, president of the ETH Board. “Young people, who might have weak symptoms, will simply be asked to stay at home to minimize contagion.”

“Only patients who are hospitalized and health care staff will be tested for coronavirus,” said Claude Kaufmann, a spokesman for Hirslanden Private Hospital Group, which operates 17 hospitals.

****************************************

The side effect of this strategy, of course, that mildly symptomatic people never got tested.  Thinking they were OK, they continued to spread the virus.

 

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1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said:

Comparing Germany and Switzerland's test counts are like comparing apples to oranges.  Switzerland's morbidity rate is higher because their testing is heavily weighted to strongly symptomatic people.  For a month of half, in fact, that's the only people they've tested.  From a March 10 article:

https://www.cnnmoney.ch/shows/big-picture/videos/coronavirus-count-switzerland

The Swiss government is abandoning efforts to keep a close count of coronavirus cases to focus instead on easing the burden on the healthcare system and protecting those most at risk of dying such as the elderly. 
 
“The government has decided that they will only test people who are at risk, who have strong symptoms,” said Michael Hengartner, president of the ETH Board. “Young people, who might have weak symptoms, will simply be asked to stay at home to minimize contagion.”

“Only patients who are hospitalized and health care staff will be tested for coronavirus,” said Claude Kaufmann, a spokesman for Hirslanden Private Hospital Group, which operates 17 hospitals.

****************************************

The side effect of this strategy, of course, that mildly symptomatic people never got tested.  Thinking they were OK, they continued to spread the virus.

 

I should have used mortality rate and not morbidity rate rate.  The Swiss have a higher mortality rate than than the US and and staggeringly higher than Germany.  Mortality rate is not impacted by who you test (unlike ,as you stated, morbidity). Mortality rate is based on death per thousand of population.  
 

Mildly symptomatic people should be no more able to spread the virus in Switzerland compared to Germany given lockdowns that were put in place in both countries.  The lockdowns purpose are to prevent that type of transmission among untested.

The key to difference between Germany and everywhere else is when it comes to mortality rate is that they avoided outbreaks among their senior population.  The focus the Swiss placed  on their senior population should have helped them stop or slow outbreaks among seniors, but it didn’t.

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Our 1st  sweet 16 entrant in the Corona bracket goes to Oxford University......who just completed a Rhesus Macaque monkey (our closest relative) study...all monkeys were disease free 28 days after being given the school's  new vaccine and then exposed to Coronavirus. ...this trial now leads to the 6000 person  study which starts immediately....and will be completed  by the end of May.    This gains them entry into my T3 bracket....Treatment Trial Tourney bracket.

A Final 4 possible by Sept (400,000  to be given the vaccine) ...with maybe a tourney winner ( Effective vaccine for the general public) before  the end of the year

Of course Oxford still has a number of games to play (always a chance for an upset)....

Bottom line...We only need 1 team to win.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/world/europe/coronavirus-vaccine-update-oxford.html

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Question for those advocating continued quarantining until a ramp up in testing.

Has someone released any info into how testing can be done in our country at the scale required, how tracing would be instituted, and how long it will take to manufacture and/or acquire these tests? 

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3 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Our 1st  sweet 16 entrant in the Corona bracket goes to Oxford University......who just completed a Rhesus Macaque monkey (our closest relative) study...all monkeys were disease free 28 days after being given the school's  new vaccine and then exposed to Coronavirus. ...this trial now leads to the 6000 person  study which starts immediately....and will be completed  by the end of May.    This gains them entry into my T3 bracket....Treatment Trial Tourney bracket.

A Final 4 possible by Sept (400,000  to be given the vaccine) ...with maybe a tourney winner ( Effective vaccine for the general public) before  the end of the year

Of course Oxford still has a number of games to play (always a chance for an upset)....

Bottom line...We only need 1 team to win.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/world/europe/coronavirus-vaccine-update-oxford.html

Just a quick note, rhesus macaques are most definitely not our closest relative... this is still a decidedly positive development, however!

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18 minutes ago, Zink said:

Just a quick note, rhesus macaques are most definitely not our closest relative... this is still a decidedly positive development, however!

I think you are right...I took that statement on the Rhesus monkey from Dr. Munster (interesting name)  of the US National Institute of Health ...the researcher who conducted the experiment at the Rocky Mountain Lab in Montana for Oxford U.

I looked it up....and we share 93% DNA with the Rhesus monkey....and 99% with the chimpanzee. So the Rhesus is close but not the closest ...but it is probably close enough to be a good test subject.

In any case , it is a significant breakthrough in that it paves the way for the 6000 person trial in the next 30 days.

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I think you are right...I took that statement on the Rhesus monkey from Dr. Munster (interesting name)  of the US National Institute of Health ...the researcher who conducted the experiment at the Rocky Mountain Lab in Montana for Oxford U.

I looked it up....and we share 93% DNA with the Rhesus monkey....and 99% with the chimpanzee. So the Rhesus is close but not the closest ...but it is probably close enough to be a good test subject.

In any case , it is a significant breakthrough in that it paves the way for the 6000 person trial in the next 30 days.

 

 

 

It is often the closest relative that we test medicine on prior to human trials. They’re relatively easy to breed and keep in captivity, and are the lab rat of primate medical research/testing. 
 

But yeah, the two species within the genus Pan (Chimpanzees and Bonobos) are our closest extant relatives. 

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14 hours ago, thetorch said:

Question for those advocating continued quarantining until a ramp up in testing.

Has someone released any info into how testing can be done in our country at the scale required, how tracing would be instituted, and how long it will take to manufacture and/or acquire these tests? 

One piece of the puzzle is having enough supplies for it. In an interview this week, Bill Gates said a swab of the nose has been as effective as the super long thing going nearly to your brain. My take was that those swabs are in less supply than your standard issue q-tip or whatever that is pretty readily available. It is being held up waiting FDA approval though. This would take away some of the fear of being tested, as its been reported to be fairly uncomfortable. 

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3 hours ago, kshoe said:

Not a silver bullet, but another weapon against the virus is showing promise:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/gilead-reports-positive-data-on-remdesivir-coronavirus-drug-trial.html

 


It looks like the FDA will roll Remdesivir as early today as an emergency treatment nationwide.  

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3 hours ago, kshoe said:

Not a silver bullet, but another weapon against the virus is showing promise:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/gilead-reports-positive-data-on-remdesivir-coronavirus-drug-trial.html

 


It looks like the FDA will roll Remdesivir as early today as an emergency treatment nationwide.  

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/live-updates-fda-plans-to-announce-emergency-use-of-coronavirus-drug/ar-BB13nS85?ocid=spartanntp

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34 minutes ago, brianstl said:


It looks like the FDA will roll Remdesivir as early today as an emergency treatment nationwide.  

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/live-updates-fda-plans-to-announce-emergency-use-of-coronavirus-drug/ar-BB13nS85?ocid=spartanntp

That's the drug they are studying at SLU med/hospital.  https://www.slu.edu/news/2020/march/covid19-treatment-trial.php

I was going to comment on outlook based on trials, but since I am not the board expert I will refrain since I don't want to be insulted.

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5 hours ago, laurk said:

That's the drug they are studying at SLU med/hospital.  https://www.slu.edu/news/2020/march/covid19-treatment-trial.php

I was going to comment on outlook based on trials, but since I am not the board expert I will refrain since I don't want to be insulted.

This study is more of a game changer than it seems.  Now we have a treatment.  Further studies will use this a the control group.  We are very fortunate, that this was investigated and had initial trials against ebola.  Scientific research of one disease may not initially pay off, but it eventually does. It sometimes takes us on elaborate pathways.  Studying HIV has led to treatments for HIV,  but  also led to a knowledge base that facilitated Hep B and Hep C research, then ebola and to this drug for this pandemic.

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38 minutes ago, Basketbill said:

This study is more of a game changer than it seems.  Now we have a treatment.  Further studies will use this a the control group.  We are very fortunate, that this was investigated and had initial trials against ebola.  Scientific research of one disease may not initially pay off, but it eventually does. It sometimes takes us on elaborate pathways.  Studying HIV has led to treatments for HIV,  but  also led to a knowledge base that facilitated Hep B and Hep C research, then ebola and to this drug for this pandemic.

There is/was a poster on here that was in administration at the VA and had a really good post about how the VA does a lot of research in ways you just described. I forget why it was even brought up or who it was, just that he put me in my place on it. 

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12 hours ago, kshoe said:

Not a silver bullet, but another weapon against the virus is showing promise:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/gilead-reports-positive-data-on-remdesivir-coronavirus-drug-trial.html

 

I mentioned the original study on page 84 of this thread (Apr 16)...that's when I put Gilead/ remdesivir on my bracket....with the news today , I am going to move them up to the sweet 16...however I will give them a 16th seed...a game changer  but as you point out not a silver bullet.

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The unemployment rate is now above 23%.  That is approaching the worst numbers of the Great Depression and almost two and half times higher than the worst number during the Great Recession.  There was only one year in the Great Depression with a worse unemployment number.  I think there is little doubt next month will be the worst unemployment number ever in this country.

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28 minutes ago, brianstl said:

The unemployment rate is now above 23%.  That is approaching the worst numbers of the Great Depression and almost two and half times higher than the worst number during the Great Recession.  There was only one year in the Great Depression with a worse unemployment number.  I think there is little doubt next month will be the worst unemployment number ever in this country.

That is correct, some businesses are starting to lay off people (Southwest Airlines and Boeing) in large amounts, even as the country starts to open up. Opening up does NOT mean all employees furloughed are recalled, most businesses will re start in a tentative fashion and gradually increase the number of recalls. Some businesses (retailers and restaurant chains) will use this lock down period to close locations that are not productive. So what you have in place is competing layoffs and furloughs vs recalls. Eventually the recalls will get the upper hand, but not immediately. Another factor that is coming our way real soon is the earnings reports for the Jan to March quarter. These are going to be, without a shade of a doubt, negative reports based upon the lock down of the economy last quarter. So we will be hit by a combination of poor earning reports plus increasing net layoffs and furloughs in the short term. By  the way SSM is furloughing 2000 people. The hospitals are full of empty wards. Cars are still not selling, and regular people are having lots of problems paying rent and debt. All of these numbers will turn around but it will take time. Right now the economy is still on the way down.

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