SLU & NCAA Corona Virus Discussion

[A10Ref]

1 hour ago, Clock_Tower said:

Same way people act in small towns every day with little to do:   sex and alcohol

Well, the alcohol is stocked...

[Cowboy]

1 hour ago, cgeldmacher said:

China has 1,386,000,000 people.  81,000 got coronavirus.  That is .0009% of their population.  3,169 died.  That's .00002286% of their population.

The US has 327,000,000 people.  If we get the same percentages as China that means that 294,300 will get it and 7,475 will die. 

For what it's worth, the Chinese Basketball Association is getting ready to start up games again.  So, there may be hope for things going back to normal sooner rather than later.  Let's hope all the elderly folks we save can pay their rent and buy groceries after their retirement accounts get cut in half.

 

-it is not done yet

[cgeldmacher]

I know they’re a rival, but this whole thing really, really sucks for Dayton and their fans.  Their best team in a long time and now all down the drain.

[almaman]

3 hours ago, Old guy said:

I believe you may be about to enter a process or rediscovery. Hiking, bike riding the Katy trail, the wineries, reading something nice. Lots of things to do, but you need to find them first. Never fear, the closure of sports will provide ample time.

Standing in line for apples

[Old guy]

54 minutes ago, 73Billiken said:

China has 1,386,000,000 people.  81,000 got coronavirus.  That is .0009% of their population.  3,169 died.  That's .00002286% of their population.

 

HOWEVER>>> The US has 327,000,000 people.  That is 25% of China's population.   If we get the same infection & death rate percentages as China that means that 294,300  19,110 will get it and 7,475 748 will die.

 

The United States has roughly 25% of the population of China, so if 81,000 Chinese got the virus and the same % holds, the math does not bring you to 294,300 infected in the US much less approx 7500 deaths.

 

You are getting the gist of the mortality estimation process, 73Billiken, good for you. Now, you need to acomodate for differences between China and the US. Population ages, states of health, and health care system. We are not equal in many of these areas. For example China has a younger population than the US, since ours is older and this thing kills older people preferentially we will have more deaths per infection, simply because a larger number of old folks will get it. Think of something else, the bulk of deaths in the US so far have happened at a single nursing home in Seattle. This indicates that a lot of old debilitated folks living together may experience a lot higher mortality than if they were being taken care by their children. In old times China revered the elder and took care of them, I really do not know how it is done nowadays. Just think about it use your own fudge factors and come with something out of it. I will be very interested to see what you do with these guidelines. You have a good beginning to the process, now you need to refine it.

[dennis_w]

7 minutes ago, Old guy said:

You are getting the gist of the mortality estimation process, 73Billiken, good for you. Now, you need to acomodate for differences between China and the US. Population ages, states of health, and health care system. We are not equal in many of these areas. For example China has a younger population than the US, since ours is older and this thing kills older people preferentially we will have more deaths per infection, simply because a larger number of old folks will get it. Think of something else, the bulk of deaths in the US so far have happened at a single nursing home in Seattle. This indicates that a lot of old debilitated folks living together may experience a lot higher mortality than if they were being taken care by their children. In old times China revered the elder and took care of them, I really do not know how it is done nowadays. Just think about it use your own fudge factors and come with something out of it. I will be very interested to see what you do with these guidelines. You have a good beginning to the process, now you need to refine it.

I have family in china, they still revere and take  care of the elderly. The reports i get from them is that travel was restricted and it seems they are starting to get back to normal. This is anecdotal of course, but encouraging

[BillsBeliever!!!]

I hope they release the bracket and NIT bracket joust to see where we were heading into the A10 tourney

[Old guy]

48 minutes ago, A10Ref said:

Well, the alcohol is stocked...

Population boom coming soon! Go buy some pamperers and huggies  before it is too late.

[brianstl]

43 minutes ago, Old guy said:

You are getting the gist of the mortality estimation process, 73Billiken, good for you. Now, you need to acomodate for differences between China and the US. Population ages, states of health, and health care system. We are not equal in many of these areas. For example China has a younger population than the US, since ours is older and this thing kills older people preferentially we will have more deaths per infection, simply because a larger number of old folks will get it. Think of something else, the bulk of deaths in the US so far have happened at a single nursing home in Seattle. This indicates that a lot of old debilitated folks living together may experience a lot higher mortality than if they were being taken care by their children. In old times China revered the elder and took care of them, I really do not know how it is done nowadays. Just think about it use your own fudge factors and come with something out of it. I will be very interested to see what you do with these guidelines. You have a good beginning to the process, now you need to refine it.

The average age in China and US are almost exactly the same.  30 years of the one child policy did a number on their demographics.

The big problem is believing any numbers put out by the Chinese government.  Italy is the more relevant country to follow right now.

[jimbofive]

6 hours ago, Crewsorlose said:

I read all 19 pages this afternoon. It's been fascinating to chart the whole thing and see the reactions. Sports is a distraction and refuge for all of us. It sucks to see this dream of season possibly ended.

I'm thankful for the people who've provided good information. I hope those who are in power make wise decisions to minimize the impact. As somebody who came to St. Louis largely because of Hurricane Katrina, I can say this: airborne diseases and hurricanes have no political agenda. I can say that the decisions of politicians and of media and its influencers will have a tremendous impact on the level of disruption and death that results. 

I myself work at SLU and was thinking it would be great to take my kids and my wife to see my mom in the coming weeks.... cheap flights, all that. But just in the process of thinking this through, I realized what a risk I'd be taking. Not to my kids or myself, but to my mom, who's nearing 80 and has had bronchial issues. To go from a plane + rental car directly to her house, or even two days later, runs the risk of exposing somebody to a disease that would have a 10% chance of killing her. 

Those who compare this to the flu aren't totally off, with the exception of the extreme vulnerability of the elderly to this disease. Stay safe, Billiken nation. 

OORGP

[jimbofive]

6 hours ago, moytoy12 said:

Normalcy is in quotes because things aren’t actually cool in China but it’s in their interest (and historical behavior) to hide facts to make things look ok. I don’t want the US to do that because a lot of people will die or get really sick. It stinks that you’re ok with such a system. 

OORGP

[JohnnyJumpUp]

5 hours ago, A10Ref said:

Well, the alcohol is stocked...

[Spoon-Balls]

Just heard that some of the Diamond Princess being quarantined and studied at University of Nebraska Med Center are still testing positive, meaning they've been harboring the virus for nearly 4 weeks now. 

[rgbilliken]

9 minutes ago, Spoon-Balls said:

Just heard that some of the Diamond Princess being quarantined and studied at University of Nebraska Med Center are still testing positive, meaning they've been harboring the virus for nearly 4 weeks now. 

Pun intended??

[Clock_Tower]

29 minutes ago, Spoon-Balls said:

Just heard that some of the Diamond Princess being quarantined and studied at University of Nebraska Med Center are still testing positive, meaning they've been harboring the virus for nearly 4 weeks now. 

Not right to keep people on an infected ship.  Don’t release to general public and good luck - but keeping on board not right either. 

[BJK]

I own a catering company. All of our corporate lunch catering this week and next cancelled. None of the large businesses in this town are having meetings... our spring wedding clients are calling to cancel... my business literally depends on feeding large groups of people. If this goes on for more than a month or two I’m sunk. I imagine many other small and medium size businesses will be in the same situation. This has potential to be devastating on many levels. Separately I’m pissed about losing out on the chance to take down Dayton tomorrow!! 
 

[Old guy]

1 hour ago, Spoon-Balls said:

Just heard that some of the Diamond Princess being quarantined and studied at University of Nebraska Med Center are still testing positive, meaning they've been harboring the virus for nearly 4 weeks now. 

That may or may not be correct. Many disease test kits detect the presence of an immune reaction to the bug in question. If this is the method used in to  check for Covid-19, then the immune reaction may be present long after the bug is eliminated from the person. I do not know what the test kits are designed to detect for this epidemic.

[BilliesBy40]

8 hours ago, BJK said:

I own a catering company. All of our corporate lunch catering this week and next cancelled. None of the large businesses in this town are having meetings... our spring wedding clients are calling to cancel... my business literally depends on feeding large groups of people. If this goes on for more than a month or two I’m sunk. I imagine many other small and medium size businesses will be in the same situation. This has potential to be devastating on many levels. Separately I’m pissed about losing out on the chance to take down Dayton tomorrow!! 
 

I wondered about weddings. Best of luck to you and your family. Let's hope this passing quickly. 

[DoctorB]

9 hours ago, Spoon-Balls said:

Just heard that some of the Diamond Princess being quarantined and studied at University of Nebraska Med Center are still testing positive, meaning they've been harboring the virus for nearly 4 weeks now. 

One expert said last night it can take 24 days or more for an infected person to show symptoms.  Quarantining on a cruise shipi salso terrible because it basically insures that everyone will be infected, due to the recirculation of the air.  Some other nuggets from last night: study shows that cases and deaths have begun doubling roughly every 4-6 days, so we will not be peaking anytime soon.  the other things was about China, which had been on severe lockdown and recently opened up more -- they are now expecting a resurgence.

another fun day in Coronaland...

[brianstl]

29 minutes ago, DoctorB said:

One expert said last night it can take 24 days or more for an infected person to show symptoms.  Quarantining on a cruise shipi salso terrible because it basically insures that everyone will be infected, due to the recirculation of the air.  Some other nuggets from last night: study shows that cases and deaths have begun doubling roughly every 4-6 days, so we will not be peaking anytime soon.  the other things was about China, which had been on severe lockdown and recently opened up more -- they are now expecting a resurgence.

another fun day in Coronaland...

You got to quarantine them on the ship until you have a facility ready where you can quarantine them on land.

[DoctorB]

then of course there's random stuff like this:

 

http://newsparliament.com/2020/03/12/hundreds-of-ravenous-wild-monkeys-terrorise-thai-city-in-search-of-food-after-coronavirus-drives-tourists-away/?fbclid=IwAR0S4dYEzKqZ3_XcFr337TLWfE1XHvybOaGj6HnpZoinspDguZzh6v6anlM

[RiseAndGrind]

10 hours ago, BJK said:

I own a catering company. All of our corporate lunch catering this week and next cancelled. None of the large businesses in this town are having meetings... our spring wedding clients are calling to cancel... my business literally depends on feeding large groups of people. If this goes on for more than a month or two I’m sunk. I imagine many other small and medium size businesses will be in the same situation. This has potential to be devastating on many levels. Separately I’m pissed about losing out on the chance to take down Dayton tomorrow!! 
 

Good luck to you. Let us know if we can help. 

[brianstl]

10 hours ago, BJK said:

I own a catering company. All of our corporate lunch catering this week and next cancelled. None of the large businesses in this town are having meetings... our spring wedding clients are calling to cancel... my business literally depends on feeding large groups of people. If this goes on for more than a month or two I’m sunk. I imagine many other small and medium size businesses will be in the same situation. This has potential to be devastating on many levels. Separately I’m pissed about losing out on the chance to take down Dayton tomorrow!! 
 

Man that sucks.  

[Billiken Rich]

44 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Man that sucks.  

I just hope all this is worth it........

[wgstl]

 

 

Rumor is that a few school reps have asked the NCAA to look into allowing seniors to come back for one year whom played on a team who had not lost