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By this point we probably all know that our Billikens are in the middle or back on the bubble. Since January and the first half of conference play is nearing its end I thought I’d make a post showing

This weekend's bubbles games rooting guide.  I'm going to focus on the 21 teams on the bubble per Lunardi's last Bracket Math twitter post from yesterday (3/4) plus UCLA: IN (# is Lunardi's seed

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Seems really bizarre that in NBC Sports' bubble watch review of the A10 this evening, they include Rhode Island with a NET of 57, but don't mention SLU with a NET of 49.  So if Rhody can't get an at-large without a victory over Dayton, apparently the Billikens don't even have that hope. These guys are asleep.

https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2020/03/08/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch-northern-iowa/

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8 minutes ago, Adman said:

Seems really bizarre that in NBC Sports' bubble watch review of the A10 this evening, they include Rhode Island with a NET of 57, but don't mention SLU with a NET of 49.  So if Rhody can't get an at-large without a victory over Dayton, apparently the Billikens don't even have that hope. These guys are asleep.

https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2020/03/08/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch-northern-iowa/

The same Rhode Island team that SLU pantsed at their place. Splendid work there.

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7 minutes ago, JettFlight5 said:

The same Rhode Island team that SLU pantsed at their place. Splendid work there.

The bracket gurus are getting lazy this is the same nonsense he posted yesterday. We have to beat SVU in order to be considered. But one game at a time first. I don't think any of these Bozo gurus have noticed anything we've done over the past 5 games. Could be time to shock the world again and win the whole damn thing!

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30 minutes ago, slu72 said:

The bracket gurus are getting lazy this is the same nonsense he posted yesterday. We have to beat SVU in order to be considered. But one game at a time first. I don't think any of these Bozo gurus have noticed anything we've done over the past 5 games. Could be time to shock the world again and win the whole damn thing!

That would take all the angst out of next Sunday.

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1 hour ago, slu72 said:

The bracket gurus are getting lazy this is the same nonsense he posted yesterday. We have to beat SVU in order to be considered. But one game at a time first. I don't think any of these Bozo gurus have noticed anything we've done over the past 5 games. Could be time to shock the world again and win the whole damn thing!

I guess it’s a different guy that does their bracketology. The article I linked above has us as next four out

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Indiana fans are reminding me a lot of my time living in Big Blue Nation in Lexington. They are ripping anyone and everyone.

This should shut them up:

Hey Indiana, you are in a play-in game for your CONFERENCE tournament. Archie Miller left the A-10 to avoid playing teams like Fordham; miraculously, he has turned Indiana into Fordham. 

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Did some digging and last year which was the first year NET was used, 41 of the NET top 45 made the tourney. 
 

Teams that were top 45 but still out:

33. NC State- 352nd OOC SOS, few quality wins

35. Clemson - 19-13(9-9) but 1-10 Q1 and no good wins

38. Texas - went 16-16

41. Furman - one Q1 win, 16 Q4 games

 

6 At Large teams we’re above 45-

47. Belmont, 55. Ohio State, 56. Temple, 63. Arizona St, 73. St John’s


If we beat Dayton and get a low 40s NET we should be in a good position

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3 hours ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

Did some digging and last year which was the first year NET was used, 41 of the NET top 45 made the tourney. 
 

Teams that were top 45 but still out:

33. NC State- 352nd OOC SOS, few quality wins

35. Clemson - 19-13(9-9) but 1-10 Q1 and no good wins

38. Texas - went 16-16

41. Furman - one Q1 win, 16 Q4 games

 

6 At Large teams we’re above 45-

47. Belmont, 55. Ohio State, 56. Temple, 63. Arizona St, 73. St John’s


If we beat Dayton and get a low 40s NET we should be in a good position

I agree. If the Bills beat Dayton they're in. It's that simple.

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I agree that a win over Dayton is likely to get us in. However, if we win over Dayton, we are also likely to win the next game and the A10 conference. So, we may not really know what it was that got us in, the win over Dayton, winning the A10 conference, or winning our last 8 games in a row. It may be that it is the combination of all of these factors that gets us in the Dance. We have known for a fair amount of time that it is not the NET number alone that gets teams into the Dance. We know the NCAA will choose, and apparently may already have chosen, teams for the Dance that do not have the correct low NET number. They announced they would set the selection essentially the way they thought best. So, it appears to me that what we really need to do to guarantee we go to the Dance is to win the A10 tournament. I really do not think a magical NET number set at a given level will do the trick, it may do so but we will not know until selection time, particularly if we do not beat Dayton. 

Do not misunderstand that last sentence. For sure we can beat Dayton or anyone else in A10, but what happens if Dayton is defeated in their first round and we never get the chance of going at it for a 3rd time? There are no guarantees in this game.

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1 minute ago, slufan13 said:

I think we are getting a little to obsessed with NET on this board. It's a sorting tool for the committee but it is one of many many factors in terms of who gets selected

It's the only thing we know. The rest of it is just a committee crapshoot. Plus, it will give us something to complain about in the off-season should we lose to Dayton in the semis and not get an at-large. The P5+1 has rigged the scheduling and selection to keep the cash in their conferences so the system they've set up deserves all the criticism it gets.

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If SLU wins the A10 tournament what would their seeding be in the big dance?

Beating Dayton and making it is one thing but a better seed puts SLU in a position to play an opponent that is even with them instead of having to upset one of the blue bloods.

It is nice to be in a position that winning a conference tournament is a real possibility instead of a long shot.

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2 minutes ago, CBFan said:

If SLU wins the A10 tournament what would their seeding be in the big dance?

Beating Dayton and making it is one thing but a better seed puts SLU in a position to play an opponent that is even with them instead of having to upset one of the blue bloods.

It is nice to be in a position that winning a conference tournament is a real possibility instead of a long shot.

Probably a 10 or 11 seed....assuming wins over Bonnies Dayton and Richmond/URI

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14 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

Probably a 10 or 11 seed....assuming wins over Bonnies Dayton and Richmond/URI

You think? That would be what 25 wins with a net prob better that 35 

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44 minutes ago, wgstl said:

You think? That would be what 25 wins with a net prob better that 35 

That would be my guess. By many accounts we’re about 8 or 9 teams off the bubble. I could easily see us with a NET of 35 and being a 10/11 seed. Which i would much rather be than a 8/9.

 

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34 minutes ago, CBFan said:

If SLU wins the A10 tournament what would their seeding be in the big dance?

Beating Dayton and making it is one thing but a better seed puts SLU in a position to play an opponent that is even with them instead of having to upset one of the blue bloods.

It is nice to be in a position that winning a conference tournament is a real possibility instead of a long shot.

We can do a back of the envelope calculation based on some rough NET assumptions.

The Best Possible Outcome:

Win over the Bonnies - NET 46

Win over the Flyers - NET 35

Win over RI/URI - NET 31

Record in last 10  games - 9-1

Probable seed: 9

 

An alternate path to the NCAA

Win over the Bonnies - NET 46

Win over the Flyers - NET 35

Loss to RI/URI - NET 39

Record in last 10  games -8-2

Probable seed: 11

 

 

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5 minutes ago, SLURadioBoy said:

SLU is now listed as the last team on the "next four out" on The Athletic's bubble watch.

So we hope we win our first game and our competitors lose their first round games. Then hope you can beat Dayton to get you over the hump. It’s possible. 

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