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Preseason 2019-20 record prediction


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1 hour ago, bauman said:

I'm thinking JJU is pulling our leg with his/her running the table post.  OG, I am with you on 25-6, meaning 14-4 in A10 play.  Hopefully we are right which means no more season -ending injuries and getting FT Jr. back soon.  A big signal of how well we will do in the Conf season will be our opener, at DUQ.  As I pointed out in another post a few days back, the first 6 A10 games will be a tough period to get through.

These kids have shown to be a bit better than expected. Still enough depth to compensate with GJ out as well IMO. But the conference schedule is going to be tough, especially the road games. Go Bills!

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1 hour ago, bauman said:

I'm thinking JJU is pulling our leg with his/her running the table post.  OG, I am with you on 25-6, meaning 14-4 in A10 play.  Hopefully we are right which means no more season -ending injuries and getting FT Jr. back soon.  A big signal of how well we will do in the Conf season will be our opener, at DUQ.  As I pointed out in another post a few days back, the first 6 A10 games will be a tough period to get through.

Thank you Bauman. As you mention we have no control over certain factors like the lack of further injuries, and the return of FT. The way it is now, I think the opponents look better than they are, however someone somehow will give us a hard fight, perhaps multiple times, during the season. Be it, if we are as good and improving as fast as I think we are we should win most of the  conference games. Besides, either we are good, resilient, and flexible in the way we play or we will not go to  the dance this year. I think we good enough, resilient enough, and flexible enough to go to  the  dance this year. This is my personal view, and I am not infallible. Go Bills!

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59 minutes ago, mdscott24 said:

These kids have shown to be a bit better than expected. Still enough depth to compensate with GJ out as well IMO. But the conference schedule is going to be tough, especially the road games. Go Bills!

I'm not too concerned about depth either.  Historically Travis Ford has gone with an 8 man rotation.  He could go 9 deep now, but seems to have chosen 8.  When Thatch comes back, he could go 9 or 10 if he so elects. 

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Hey guys, wasn't sure which thread was best to post this in, and a little bit of old news. But I haven't seen anybody post it yet (plz forgive me if it's a duplicate). Just noticed this, on the Athletic, Eamonn Brennan did a "mailbag" question about our Billikens. It asked "if SLU beats K-State (obviously this was written before that game) and finishes top-4 in the A10, will they have done enough to get an at-large?" He explained that he wavered back and forth on the question 6 or 7 times and his final answer was kind of a lot of "what if's" but he basically said that if we finish in the top-4 by simply beating up on the bottom half of the league, the answer is probably "no". However, if we finish in the top-4 with a few wins over Dayton/VCU/Richmond/Dukes/Rhodey, the answer is probably "yes". Just thought I'd share.

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Not sure how we can end up in top 4 of A-10 and NOT beat some of the top 5 teams you list.  If we lose to those 5,  would not our best finish possible be 6th?  
 

is the question really can we make the Dance as an at large if we dont beat UD or VCU?

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20 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

Not sure how we can end up in top 4 of A-10 and NOT beat some of the top 5 teams you list.  If we lose to those 5,  would not our best finish possible be 6th?  
 

is the question really can we make the Dance as an at large if we dont beat UD or VCU?

"It might be possible to end up 4th (or tied for 4th) by beating up on the bottom half of the league, and without notching really marquee wins in the league, and at that point, this resume would be of the 'quantity over quality' subtype, which is never a good place to be in the committee's eyes on selection Sunday." Brennan's exact words in the final paragraph of his answer about SLU. Just posting what he said.

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Yes. I get the general concept but beating the bottom half only ensures we end up in the top half of our 14 team conference.  Top 4 means we would need to do more than beat up on the bottom half.  
i get that you are the messenger for yet another college basketball “expert” but he lists 5 schools who will be in the top half and won’t be in the bottom half. Beating the bottom half is a given. Beating some of his list of 5 teams in the top half would be required to end up Top 4.  What I think he really is saying, but not saying, is that if 4 teams emerge as the Top 4 with wins against each other, then the A10 may deserve and earn 4 spots.  But if 2 or 3 teams emerge as the clear top teams, with losses only to each other, then the A10 will deserve and earn only 2 to 3 teams - not 4.  Which means the A10’s 4th place team needs to beat the A10’s 1st and /or 2nd (or possibly 3rd place team if this 3rd place team beats the 1st and 2nd place teams) at some point -  likely UD and VCU. 

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10 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

Yes. I get the general concept but beating the bottom half only ensures we end up in the top half of our 14 team conference.  Top 4 means we would need to do more than beat up on the bottom half.  
i get that you are the messenger for yet another college basketball “expert” but he lists 5 schools who will be in the top half and won’t be in the bottom half. Beating the bottom half is a given. Beating some of his list of 5 teams in the top half would be required to end up Top 4.  What I think he really is saying, but not saying, is that if 4 teams emerge as the Top 4 with wins against each other, then the A10 may deserve and earn 4 spots.  But if 2 or 3 teams emerge as the clear top teams, with losses only to each other, then the A10 will deserve and earn only 2 to 3 teams - not 4.  Which means the A10’s 4th place team needs to beat the A10’s 1st and /or 2nd (or possibly 3rd place team if this 3rd place team beats the 1st and 2nd place teams) at some point -  likely UD and VCU. 

Totally agree. I also think it will depend on how good teams not named Dayton and VCU play against significantly better competition in conference play. For instance, if we win this week @ Duquesne and they turn out to be a top team in A10 play, I would consider that a "marquee win." However, if Duquesne fades and their current record is more reflective of their extremely weak OOC schedule, it may not be considered a "marquee win" at the end of the season. But for the most part, I agree with you. If we finish top-4, we will have collected some signature wins along the way. That's kinda why I posted it. Optimistic way to look at it is: if we take care of business and finish top-4 in the league, there's a good chance we're in.

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Clock, the reality of conference play is that we may beat some or most of the top teams, and still lose a game or two to bottom feeders. We will have to see what happens as it happens. As it stands, I think we can beat everyone with the exception of Dayton and VCU. Dayton and VCU will be, in my opinion, tough opponents, however we can still beat them given the proper attitude.

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  • 2 months later...
On 12/28/2019 at 5:31 PM, Reinert310 said:

Hey guys, wasn't sure which thread was best to post this in, and a little bit of old news. But I haven't seen anybody post it yet (plz forgive me if it's a duplicate). Just noticed this, on the Athletic, Eamonn Brennan did a "mailbag" question about our Billikens. It asked "if SLU beats K-State (obviously this was written before that game) and finishes top-4 in the A10, will they have done enough to get an at-large?" He explained that he wavered back and forth on the question 6 or 7 times and his final answer was kind of a lot of "what if's" but he basically said that if we finish in the top-4 by simply beating up on the bottom half of the league, the answer is probably "no". However, if we finish in the top-4 with a few wins over Dayton/VCU/Richmond/Dukes/Rhodey, the answer is probably "yes". Just thought I'd share.

Prophetic question there. The answer turned out to be no without a win over Dayton. So close.

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3 hours ago, Box and Won said:

Freezing cold take alert.

I could not be happier to be wrong about this!

As a punishment I feel you need to contribute to the next briefcase, not just deliver w/ me. 

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2 hours ago, RiseAndGrind said:

I didn’t think we would ever see THIS Perkins

I didn't either, especially after his start. My early Perkins take is almost as wrong as my early Dwayne Polk take was and that one was really bad. 

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Go back and re read this thread from the beginning and this was when we thought we'd have Thatch and a healthy Jimerson all year. It can't help but make you appreciate what Travis and the team has accomplished so far. 

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1 hour ago, slufanskip said:

I didn't either, especially after his start. My early Perkins take is almost as wrong as my early Dwayne Polk take was and that one was really bad. 

We all, including (and especially) Brad Soderberg, had bad early takes on Polk.

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There were quite a few takes on the board that predicted that Perkins would struggle early and come on strong later.  Nobody knew he would be this proficient but those of us who had seen him knew that he would pose a match up problem in the A-10.

Polk, OTOH, developed Steve Sax disease.  This was a kid who routinely lit it up from three his senior year, including 8 threes in the state championship game.  In college, you would cringe when he took a three, no matter how open he was.  There are some outcomes that no one can predict, because they're based in human psychology, which can vary widely from person to person, not in skillsets.

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Summary of pre-season predictions (adjusted to 31 games for a few who predicted 30, 32 or 33 games):

25-6     Old Guy

23-8    ACTUAL

22-9    2

21-10   2

20-11   3

19-12   5

18-13  4

17-14   5

Clearly, the team over-achieved the Board's initial sentiments, especially since none of us could have predicted the losses of Fred and G. Jimerson (one M please).  Now on to the A- 10 tournament and then to the NCAA.  These guys seem to be peaking at the right time and can beat any other league teams.

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I was one of the most sanguine of the forecasts, as I knew Perkins would not come close to equaling Bess’ offensive production, and would be a sieve on defense.

Bell would be a marginal 5-10 mpg replacement for Foreman, and Collins would be a 3ppg replacement for Isabell.

I was afraid Ford would ride Goodwin at pg for the majority of all games, and that Jimerson would be the second coming of Drew Deiner.

Instead, we got a master’s class in teaching the guards and wings how to force dribble penetration into aggressive help defense, off defenders jumping into passing lanes, and absolutely vicious rebounding. We saw Perkins channel Harry Rogers from 49 years ago, looking like he had more important things to do as he calmly set the nets afire.

We saw Jimerson turn in a 42% sharpshooter performance from three land, French and Goodwin add over 5 rpg to their stat sheet, four frosh over 4 ppg, ditto for a soph. Going against French every single practice rapidly turned Bell into a willing pounder, and accelerated his development.

Other than the Injuries to Thatch and Jimerson, we could not possibly ask for a better season outcome. Every single metric that should have declined by playing four frosh, a soph, and two transfers went to the good. There are very, very few success stories like this one.

The coaching and buy in have again been outstanding.

 

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