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S Hall over the Bills by 21


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9 minutes ago, slu72 said:

For the Wiz, who I've met and think is a genius and a really nice fellow, I can't recall any game where you've predicted us to get slammed by 21 points. Have you?

And this includes the Crews years. 

 

What was the Duke spread? 

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30 minutes ago, slu72 said:

For the Wiz, who I've met and think is a genius and a really nice fellow, I can't recall any game where you've predicted us to get slammed by 21 points. Have you?

And this includes the Crews years. 

 

I bet there has been one over 20. I wonder if there has ever been as big of a disparity between the Wiz spread and Vegas. 

They usually seem to be within a few points but this one is 15.

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Over the years there have been games where we have been underdogs by 20+ pts...fortunately  not too many. The game against Duke comes to mind....my recollection was that it was  around 28pts.  And there have been a number of games where Vegas and I differ by more than a few points. The game the other night ...SH vs Neb....I had Neb  by 14 ...Vegas had them by 7....which brings up a few points....When you are betting you don't have to be close to the actual spread....you just need to be better than Vegas...to me the Neb game was easy because people had underestimated Neb.  There are a number of teams now that are underestimated ( or over estimated ).  Vegas and the bettors  look at the polls....read the preseason stuff (just like we all do ) they don't see  SH in the top 25.... see that SLU is going to win the A-10...decide that the Big East is a better conference and start the spread at 6...that spread will create a lot of action which is what they want.  Is the 21pts a high confidence spread....with 38% of the data in... the answer is no....however it is enough data to show which way the teams are trending...And remember if I am short of data so are all of "them". (Vegas, all the forecasters, bettors, etc)    Whether it is 21 pts or 15 or 10 the only number that matters is 7. If  SH  will win by by 6  knowing there is a pretty good likely hood based on the projections that it could be around 21...then this should be an easy bet....in other words,  is there a chance that SH  wins by more than 7....if that chance is greater than 50% ( which I think it is ) ....then it is an easy decision  ....Personally, I would never bet against the Bills....There are plenty of other teams out there to take advantage of...2 that come to mind  are SF and St. Mary's...good teams that are not yet on the radar that will be under estimated with close spreads on certain games.  But I digress ...getting back to the Bills, this is a case of SH being underestimated and the Bills being overestimated. As for the matter of 21...large spreads are difficult to get right because when the spread widens other factors enter in....Teams let up when they have a big lead...they put in the 2nd or third teams...the losing team gives up...or they put in their subs...less fouls are called etc. The magic number is 18....after 18  the "other factors" start to kick in.... 

Can the Bills win? ...There is a chance....They could have "that night"...every year no matter what kind of team we have ....there is that 1 night...where everything hits....the slash looks like this....50/41/ 80....Would I want to bet on this happening ....looking at the 1st 3 games... probably not.  Maybe SH (not a particularly good shooting team) comes on to the court and becomes frightened of us and shoots 35/20/ 59...again not a bet I would take.

So I leave you with Rene Descartes (1637)....

"It is very certain that,when it is not in our power to determine what is true, we ought to act according to what is most probable."

btw ...he has SH by 24

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Wiz, Descartes has SH by 24!, despite the fact that he has been dead for hundreds of years? Have you read Nassim Taleb with his emphasis on chance events? Pomeroy's tables include a column with a number representing "luck," how he gets this value is totally beyond me but it is there in his ranking tables. You talk about teams that are under estimated and over estimated, what data do you use to determine these factors, particularly early in the season? This is all extremely interesting, to me at least.

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8 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Over the years there have been games where we have been underdogs by 20+ pts...fortunately  not too many. The game against Duke comes to mind....my recollection was that it was  around 28pts.  And there have been a number of games where Vegas and I differ by more than a few points. The game the other night ...SH vs Neb....I had Neb  by 14 ...Vegas had them by 7....which brings up a few points....When you are betting you don't have to be close to the actual spread....you just need to be better than Vegas...to me the Neb game was easy because people had underestimated Neb.  There are a number of teams now that are underestimated ( or over estimated ).  Vegas and the bettors  look at the polls....read the preseason stuff (just like we all do ) they don't see  SH in the top 25.... see that SLU is going to win the A-10...decide that the Big East is a better conference and start the spread at 6...that spread will create a lot of action which is what they want.  Is the 21pts a high confidence spread....with 38% of the data in... the answer is no....however it is enough data to show which way the teams are trending...And remember if I am short of data so are all of "them". (Vegas, all the forecasters, bettors, etc)    Whether it is 21 pts or 15 or 10 the only number that matters is 7. If  SH  will win by by 6  knowing there is a pretty good likely hood based on the projections that it could be around 21...then this should be an easy bet....in other words,  is there a chance that SH  wins by more than 7....if that chance is greater than 50% ( which I think it is ) ....then it is an easy decision  ....Personally, I would never bet against the Bills....There are plenty of other teams out there to take advantage of...2 that come to mind  are SF and St. Mary's...good teams that are not yet on the radar that will be under estimated with close spreads on certain games.  But I digress ...getting back to the Bills, this is a case of SH being underestimated and the Bills being overestimated. As for the matter of 21...large spreads are difficult to get right because when the spread widens other factors enter in....Teams let up when they have a big lead...they put in the 2nd or third teams...the losing team gives up...or they put in their subs...less fouls are called etc. The magic number is 18....after 18  the "other factors" start to kick in.... 

Can the Bills win? ...There is a chance....They could have "that night"...every year no matter what kind of team we have ....there is that 1 night...where everything hits....the slash looks like this....50/41/ 80....Would I want to bet on this happening ....looking at the 1st 3 games... probably not.  Maybe SH (not a particularly good shooting team) comes on to the court and becomes frightened of us and shoots 35/20/ 59...again not a bet I would take.

So I leave you with Rene Descartes (1637)....

"It is very certain that,when it is not in our power to determine what is true, we ought to act according to what is most probable."

btw ...he has SH by 24

Or SLU is not overrated, they are just off to a slow shooting start and haven't been in sync with regards to Isabel and Goodwin yet. You always state that it takes 8 games to get a real feel, however you seem pretty dead set after 3 games that SLU isn't as good as we thought they'd be. 

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While I haven't given up on our talent I am very disappointed with the way we are using that talent.   If our coaching staff doesn't quit this return to the days of norman dale and start using the God given advantages this team has, we are in for a very mediocre season.  

Turn them loose.

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1 hour ago, slufanskip said:

Or SLU is not overrated, they are just off to a slow shooting start and haven't been in sync with regards to Isabel and Goodwin yet. You always state that it takes 8 games to get a real feel, however you seem pretty dead set after 3 games that SLU isn't as good as we thought they'd be. 

We don't even know what our A-game looks like.....

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1 minute ago, billiken_roy said:

While I haven't given up on our talent I am very disappointed with the way we are using that talent.   If our coaching staff doesn't quit this return to the days of norman dale and start using the God given advantages this team has, we are in for a very mediocre season.  

Turn them loose.

I hate to keep bringing up the past.   I realize it's only been three games but hasn't this always been the knock on Ford that he's underachieved with talented teams?  Hopefully this evening will put some of my fears to rest.....

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9 hours ago, Old guy said:

Wiz, Descartes has SH by 24!, despite the fact that he has been dead for hundreds of years? Have you read Nassim Taleb with his emphasis on chance events? Pomeroy's tables include a column with a number representing "luck," how he gets this value is totally beyond me but it is there in his ranking tables. You talk about teams that are under estimated and over estimated, what data do you use to determine these factors, particularly early in the season? This is all extremely interesting, to me at least.

I shouldn't speak for the Wiz but I think this is where he got his "estimations."

10 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Vegas and the bettors  look at the polls....read the preseason stuff (just like we all do ) they don't see  SH in the top 25.... see that SLU is going to win the A-10...decide that the Big East is a better conference and start the spread at 6

 

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I have DirecTV, but they said that they're in a contractual dispute with FS2, so it's unavailable.  I'm in SW Georgia, but curious how others are able to watch it on DirecTV.

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4 hours ago, aj_arete said:

I have DirecTV, but they said that they're in a contractual dispute with FS2, so it's unavailable.  I'm in SW Georgia, but curious how others are able to watch it on DirecTV.

That doesn’t make sense. Directv now worked tonight 

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On 11/15/2018 at 11:17 AM, The Wiz said:

Well the good news is ...on paper...our grades are pretty close to SH (see chart below).....So why is it looking like a blowout.  Well for one reason SOS (no, not a call for help....strength of schedule) SH grades out at A- ..... Meanwhile we come in at D- on SOS.....Overall SH is an A+.....yes even after a 23 point loss to A+ Neb........The computer didn't beat up SH because it considers Neb to have the best defense in the nation.....we come in at C+....So we come in at the 2 letter differential......as long as you are within 2 letters ....there's a chance ...cue Jim Carrey

Let's take a look at the chart

.........................................Off.............................................................................Def

.......................SLU..................................SH.........................................SLU...........................SH

PPG...................D-....................................D...........................................A-..............................B

FG%...................C-....................................D+.........................................B-..............................B+

3P%....................F-....................................D............................................B-.............................B

FT%....................F-.....................................B-..................................................................................

Reb.....................C-.....................................B-...........................................C+ ..........................D

Nationally ranked

PPG ....Powell.....27ppg.....7th in nation

FG%......Nzei..........83%......21st in the nation

What we need to do to win.....Stop these 2 guys....Hold Nzei to under 50% and Powell under 20pts.. 

 ................................................ Since our report card grades are somewhat similar.....if we could play  and hold them to the same numbers as we did for the first 3 teams we would have a .................................................chance....This means holding SH to 60pts....keeping them at under 40%  FG and under 30% from 3...Hold them to 31 Reb....TO differential 7 in our favor.

.................................................We need to get at least 48% /33% /70%.....out rebound them by 5....and have 11 TOs or less...a side note...SH does have a tendency to TO the ball....we need 3 steals and ..................................................3 blks.....In other words we have to bring our A game.  This also needs to be a low scoring game.....under 130 total pts.

Bottom line..............So who will show up tonight....The  The SH team that will be down after losing a big  game and thinks they have a weak opponent....or the SH team that looked bad in a big game and is hopping mad. And which SLU team will show up....The one that has struggled against weak teams or the one that has all the potential and wants to make a statement against a top rated team and get the season rolling in the right direction.

Put it together...It's gel time.....Go Bills

 

 

 

 

 

 

What a great win....this is comparable to the Va Tech win....Maybe better as the spread was even larger this time.....Looks like we are a team that plays to the level of our competition.

We won because we did what we were supposed to do.  The key was to fix the shooting....in the above post...I said we needed to finish with a slash of 48/33/70 ....We came in at 48/63/70....2 out of 3 isn't bad and the 3rd was great.....another key was to stop Powell and Nzei...We did....hold Powell  a 27 pt shooter to less than 20...he scored 16....and hold Nzei an 83% shooter to 40%...he shot 0%....We needed a low scoring game of 130....bingo 130....We needed 3 blks and 3 stls...we got 7 blks and 8 stls....out rebound them by 5 ...we out rebounded them by 12.

and the defense was strong too... I said we needed to hold them under 40% FG% and 30% 3P%......SH slash 38/24/71...bingo again

This was almost a perfect game ...the only thing that was a miss was the TOs...had we controlled that we might have won this game  by 21. But other than TOs everything else fell into place. It was as if the Bills had read the post and used it for a game plan.

So what does this mean...it means we won this game...if we can follow this up by exceeding the next 2 spreads ( by 3-5 pts) then we would have a trend going....and if we can follow with another 2 good games  (total 8 games)we will have a season going.

The real significance of this win is that we beat a very good team..a team better than any team in the A-10 and as good a team as we will play this year....Fla St is probably similar in difficulty but I would give the edge to SH as the best quality win because we beat them at home vs Fl St which will be a neutral court. The fact that SH is better than any A-10 team lends credence to the idea of being able to capture the A-10 championship.....But first we have to show this wan't a fluke...by doing well  at least the next 2 games and hopefully the next 4.

 

 

 

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