billikenfan05 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 9 minutes ago, slu72 said: For the Wiz, who I've met and think is a genius and a really nice fellow, I can't recall any game where you've predicted us to get slammed by 21 points. Have you? And this includes the Crews years. What was the Duke spread? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Put 6 slu players in my DraftKings lineup so banking on an actual offense tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidnark Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 I believe the Wiz has told us in year's past that he needs 8-10 games per team to have an "n" high enough to provide data with statistical significance at a high Confidence Interval. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlarry Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 30 minutes ago, slu72 said: For the Wiz, who I've met and think is a genius and a really nice fellow, I can't recall any game where you've predicted us to get slammed by 21 points. Have you? And this includes the Crews years. I bet there has been one over 20. I wonder if there has ever been as big of a disparity between the Wiz spread and Vegas. They usually seem to be within a few points but this one is 15. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 17, 2018 Author Share Posted November 17, 2018 Over the years there have been games where we have been underdogs by 20+ pts...fortunately not too many. The game against Duke comes to mind....my recollection was that it was around 28pts. And there have been a number of games where Vegas and I differ by more than a few points. The game the other night ...SH vs Neb....I had Neb by 14 ...Vegas had them by 7....which brings up a few points....When you are betting you don't have to be close to the actual spread....you just need to be better than Vegas...to me the Neb game was easy because people had underestimated Neb. There are a number of teams now that are underestimated ( or over estimated ). Vegas and the bettors look at the polls....read the preseason stuff (just like we all do ) they don't see SH in the top 25.... see that SLU is going to win the A-10...decide that the Big East is a better conference and start the spread at 6...that spread will create a lot of action which is what they want. Is the 21pts a high confidence spread....with 38% of the data in... the answer is no....however it is enough data to show which way the teams are trending...And remember if I am short of data so are all of "them". (Vegas, all the forecasters, bettors, etc) Whether it is 21 pts or 15 or 10 the only number that matters is 7. If SH will win by by 6 knowing there is a pretty good likely hood based on the projections that it could be around 21...then this should be an easy bet....in other words, is there a chance that SH wins by more than 7....if that chance is greater than 50% ( which I think it is ) ....then it is an easy decision ....Personally, I would never bet against the Bills....There are plenty of other teams out there to take advantage of...2 that come to mind are SF and St. Mary's...good teams that are not yet on the radar that will be under estimated with close spreads on certain games. But I digress ...getting back to the Bills, this is a case of SH being underestimated and the Bills being overestimated. As for the matter of 21...large spreads are difficult to get right because when the spread widens other factors enter in....Teams let up when they have a big lead...they put in the 2nd or third teams...the losing team gives up...or they put in their subs...less fouls are called etc. The magic number is 18....after 18 the "other factors" start to kick in.... Can the Bills win? ...There is a chance....They could have "that night"...every year no matter what kind of team we have ....there is that 1 night...where everything hits....the slash looks like this....50/41/ 80....Would I want to bet on this happening ....looking at the 1st 3 games... probably not. Maybe SH (not a particularly good shooting team) comes on to the court and becomes frightened of us and shoots 35/20/ 59...again not a bet I would take. So I leave you with Rene Descartes (1637).... "It is very certain that,when it is not in our power to determine what is true, we ought to act according to what is most probable." btw ...he has SH by 24 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Wiz, Descartes has SH by 24!, despite the fact that he has been dead for hundreds of years? Have you read Nassim Taleb with his emphasis on chance events? Pomeroy's tables include a column with a number representing "luck," how he gets this value is totally beyond me but it is there in his ranking tables. You talk about teams that are under estimated and over estimated, what data do you use to determine these factors, particularly early in the season? This is all extremely interesting, to me at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 8 hours ago, The Wiz said: Over the years there have been games where we have been underdogs by 20+ pts...fortunately not too many. The game against Duke comes to mind....my recollection was that it was around 28pts. And there have been a number of games where Vegas and I differ by more than a few points. The game the other night ...SH vs Neb....I had Neb by 14 ...Vegas had them by 7....which brings up a few points....When you are betting you don't have to be close to the actual spread....you just need to be better than Vegas...to me the Neb game was easy because people had underestimated Neb. There are a number of teams now that are underestimated ( or over estimated ). Vegas and the bettors look at the polls....read the preseason stuff (just like we all do ) they don't see SH in the top 25.... see that SLU is going to win the A-10...decide that the Big East is a better conference and start the spread at 6...that spread will create a lot of action which is what they want. Is the 21pts a high confidence spread....with 38% of the data in... the answer is no....however it is enough data to show which way the teams are trending...And remember if I am short of data so are all of "them". (Vegas, all the forecasters, bettors, etc) Whether it is 21 pts or 15 or 10 the only number that matters is 7. If SH will win by by 6 knowing there is a pretty good likely hood based on the projections that it could be around 21...then this should be an easy bet....in other words, is there a chance that SH wins by more than 7....if that chance is greater than 50% ( which I think it is ) ....then it is an easy decision ....Personally, I would never bet against the Bills....There are plenty of other teams out there to take advantage of...2 that come to mind are SF and St. Mary's...good teams that are not yet on the radar that will be under estimated with close spreads on certain games. But I digress ...getting back to the Bills, this is a case of SH being underestimated and the Bills being overestimated. As for the matter of 21...large spreads are difficult to get right because when the spread widens other factors enter in....Teams let up when they have a big lead...they put in the 2nd or third teams...the losing team gives up...or they put in their subs...less fouls are called etc. The magic number is 18....after 18 the "other factors" start to kick in.... Can the Bills win? ...There is a chance....They could have "that night"...every year no matter what kind of team we have ....there is that 1 night...where everything hits....the slash looks like this....50/41/ 80....Would I want to bet on this happening ....looking at the 1st 3 games... probably not. Maybe SH (not a particularly good shooting team) comes on to the court and becomes frightened of us and shoots 35/20/ 59...again not a bet I would take. So I leave you with Rene Descartes (1637).... "It is very certain that,when it is not in our power to determine what is true, we ought to act according to what is most probable." btw ...he has SH by 24 Or SLU is not overrated, they are just off to a slow shooting start and haven't been in sync with regards to Isabel and Goodwin yet. You always state that it takes 8 games to get a real feel, however you seem pretty dead set after 3 games that SLU isn't as good as we thought they'd be. HenryB likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 While I haven't given up on our talent I am very disappointed with the way we are using that talent. If our coaching staff doesn't quit this return to the days of norman dale and start using the God given advantages this team has, we are in for a very mediocre season. Turn them loose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 1 hour ago, slufanskip said: Or SLU is not overrated, they are just off to a slow shooting start and haven't been in sync with regards to Isabel and Goodwin yet. You always state that it takes 8 games to get a real feel, however you seem pretty dead set after 3 games that SLU isn't as good as we thought they'd be. We don't even know what our A-game looks like..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 1 minute ago, billiken_roy said: While I haven't given up on our talent I am very disappointed with the way we are using that talent. If our coaching staff doesn't quit this return to the days of norman dale and start using the God given advantages this team has, we are in for a very mediocre season. Turn them loose. I hate to keep bringing up the past. I realize it's only been three games but hasn't this always been the knock on Ford that he's underachieved with talented teams? Hopefully this evening will put some of my fears to rest..... billiken_roy likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 9 hours ago, Old guy said: Wiz, Descartes has SH by 24!, despite the fact that he has been dead for hundreds of years? Have you read Nassim Taleb with his emphasis on chance events? Pomeroy's tables include a column with a number representing "luck," how he gets this value is totally beyond me but it is there in his ranking tables. You talk about teams that are under estimated and over estimated, what data do you use to determine these factors, particularly early in the season? This is all extremely interesting, to me at least. I shouldn't speak for the Wiz but I think this is where he got his "estimations." 10 hours ago, The Wiz said: Vegas and the bettors look at the polls....read the preseason stuff (just like we all do ) they don't see SH in the top 25.... see that SLU is going to win the A-10...decide that the Big East is a better conference and start the spread at 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 You may be right White Pelican, but it will be interesting in finding out how data can be used to estimate over rating, under rating, and, in the case of Pomeroy, "luck." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Sorry guys the streaming site I found is not good, whenever I turn it on I get big signs of malaware by my anti virus and the program is cancelled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 mn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aj_arete Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 I have DirecTV, but they said that they're in a contractual dispute with FS2, so it's unavailable. I'm in SW Georgia, but curious how others are able to watch it on DirecTV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsBeliever!!! Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 SLU by 3. 24 point difference! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsBeliever!!! Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Wiz said we need 48/33/70 we got 47.6 / 62.5 / 70 gobillsgo and Zink like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 The fact that we only took 8 threes is big. We can't shoot so glad we didnt put up 20 almaman likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 This game should help the math going forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Oh, yes it will. The data for the first 8 games will not be as bad as we feared before this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westy03 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Thanks wiz Box and Won and QUAILMAN like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyMo213 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 On 11/15/2018 at 4:09 PM, MattyMo213 said: Good things happen when we wear the black jerseys Told ya Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 4 hours ago, aj_arete said: I have DirecTV, but they said that they're in a contractual dispute with FS2, so it's unavailable. I'm in SW Georgia, but curious how others are able to watch it on DirecTV. That doesn’t make sense. Directv now worked tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 On 11/15/2018 at 11:17 AM, The Wiz said: Well the good news is ...on paper...our grades are pretty close to SH (see chart below).....So why is it looking like a blowout. Well for one reason SOS (no, not a call for help....strength of schedule) SH grades out at A- ..... Meanwhile we come in at D- on SOS.....Overall SH is an A+.....yes even after a 23 point loss to A+ Neb........The computer didn't beat up SH because it considers Neb to have the best defense in the nation.....we come in at C+....So we come in at the 2 letter differential......as long as you are within 2 letters ....there's a chance ...cue Jim Carrey Let's take a look at the chart .........................................Off.............................................................................Def .......................SLU..................................SH.........................................SLU...........................SH PPG...................D-....................................D...........................................A-..............................B FG%...................C-....................................D+.........................................B-..............................B+ 3P%....................F-....................................D............................................B-.............................B FT%....................F-.....................................B-.................................................................................. Reb.....................C-.....................................B-...........................................C+ ..........................D Nationally ranked PPG ....Powell.....27ppg.....7th in nation FG%......Nzei..........83%......21st in the nation What we need to do to win.....Stop these 2 guys....Hold Nzei to under 50% and Powell under 20pts.. ................................................ Since our report card grades are somewhat similar.....if we could play and hold them to the same numbers as we did for the first 3 teams we would have a .................................................chance....This means holding SH to 60pts....keeping them at under 40% FG and under 30% from 3...Hold them to 31 Reb....TO differential 7 in our favor. .................................................We need to get at least 48% /33% /70%.....out rebound them by 5....and have 11 TOs or less...a side note...SH does have a tendency to TO the ball....we need 3 steals and ..................................................3 blks.....In other words we have to bring our A game. This also needs to be a low scoring game.....under 130 total pts. Bottom line..............So who will show up tonight....The The SH team that will be down after losing a big game and thinks they have a weak opponent....or the SH team that looked bad in a big game and is hopping mad. And which SLU team will show up....The one that has struggled against weak teams or the one that has all the potential and wants to make a statement against a top rated team and get the season rolling in the right direction. Put it together...It's gel time.....Go Bills What a great win....this is comparable to the Va Tech win....Maybe better as the spread was even larger this time.....Looks like we are a team that plays to the level of our competition. We won because we did what we were supposed to do. The key was to fix the shooting....in the above post...I said we needed to finish with a slash of 48/33/70 ....We came in at 48/63/70....2 out of 3 isn't bad and the 3rd was great.....another key was to stop Powell and Nzei...We did....hold Powell a 27 pt shooter to less than 20...he scored 16....and hold Nzei an 83% shooter to 40%...he shot 0%....We needed a low scoring game of 130....bingo 130....We needed 3 blks and 3 stls...we got 7 blks and 8 stls....out rebound them by 5 ...we out rebounded them by 12. and the defense was strong too... I said we needed to hold them under 40% FG% and 30% 3P%......SH slash 38/24/71...bingo again This was almost a perfect game ...the only thing that was a miss was the TOs...had we controlled that we might have won this game by 21. But other than TOs everything else fell into place. It was as if the Bills had read the post and used it for a game plan. So what does this mean...it means we won this game...if we can follow this up by exceeding the next 2 spreads ( by 3-5 pts) then we would have a trend going....and if we can follow with another 2 good games (total 8 games)we will have a season going. The real significance of this win is that we beat a very good team..a team better than any team in the A-10 and as good a team as we will play this year....Fla St is probably similar in difficulty but I would give the edge to SH as the best quality win because we beat them at home vs Fl St which will be a neutral court. The fact that SH is better than any A-10 team lends credence to the idea of being able to capture the A-10 championship.....But first we have to show this wan't a fluke...by doing well at least the next 2 games and hopefully the next 4. Zink and rgbilliken like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigMouthBilliken Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Good unexpected win against and average team on the road. 4-0 I’ll take it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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