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2020-21 Season


davidnark
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6 minutes ago, Compton said:

Kind of pleasantly surprised. We clearly got some credit for the NC State win - thank God we scheduled and won that game. I thought the punishment for the Gopher loss would be greater than dropping a single spot from 27 to 28. 

@Pistolsaid in another thread that "we don't need to follow the rankings for the foreseeable future" but being at 28 makes us a live dog. Our path to a Top 10 ranking / high seed is certainly hobbled. But it shouldn't take too many A10 wins to crack the Top 25. 

True, but the Bills can't lose any games before February, as far as being ranked is concerned.

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10 minutes ago, Slu let the dogs out? said:

Are we at max allowed number of non-con games with UMKC on Wednesday? If not, any chance we could sneak in another top 50-75 between KC and Duquesne? Is it even worth adding unless it’s top 50? 

We can play another game. I'd be up for anything in the top 75.

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8 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

True, but the Bills can't lose any games before February, as far as being ranked is concerned.

I could see us cracking it before Feb. #21 FSU has a clear path out of the Top 25 by mid-Jan after losing to UCF. #26 SDSU's win over Arizona State is increasingly unimpressive, as is their loss to BYU. They could easily lose to St. Mary's tomorrow. That leaves one more to bump off in the next 2-1/2 weeks. But yes, definitely have to keep winning during that time. 

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7 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

True, but the Bills can't lose any games before February, as far as being ranked is concerned.

I don't think it would take that long.  Another 4 game winning streak ought to do it.  Plenty of teams ranked between 18-30 will lose in that period.   The problem is as soon as we lose, we're right back out again.  San Diego State was #18, lost to a solid BYU team and boom, they're in the no-mans land of #26.

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20 minutes ago, Compton said:

Kind of pleasantly surprised. We clearly got some credit for the NC State win - thank God we scheduled and won that game. I thought the punishment for the Gopher loss would be greater than dropping a single spot from 27 to 28. 

@Pistolsaid in another thread that "we don't need to follow the rankings for the foreseeable future" but being at 28 makes us a live dog. Our path to a Top 10 ranking / high seed is certainly hobbled. But it shouldn't take too many A10 wins to crack the Top 25. 

I agree that I was pleasantly surprised. There is a human nature of this and I wonder if some of the writers filled out their ballot before the game was finished last night. They aren't supposed to do that, but it's not impossible.

Obviously we don't have any great opportunities for needle moving wins in the next month, but with conference play already starting, there are going to be a lot of teams piling up losses. People will all focus on any teams ranked 20-25 as opportunities for us to move up, and that is true, but at the end of the day, if we just win a few games, sitting at 10-1 or 11-1 or 12-1, we are going to look really good compared to some of these other teams with 3-5 losses. We'll get there eventually...

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21 minutes ago, Compton said:

I could see us cracking it before Feb. #21 FSU has a clear path out of the Top 25 by mid-Jan after losing to UCF. #26 SDSU's win over Arizona State is increasingly unimpressive, as is their loss to BYU. They could easily lose to St. Mary's tomorrow. That leaves one more to bump off in the next 2-1/2 weeks. But yes, definitely have to keep winning during that time. 

 

21 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

I don't think it would take that long.  Another 4 game winning streak ought to do it.  Plenty of teams ranked between 18-30 will lose in that period.   The problem is as soon as we lose, we're right back out again.  San Diego State was #18, lost to a solid BYU team and boom, they're in the no-mans land of #26.

I'm not saying that it will take until February for the Bills to earn a spot in the Top 25 if they keep winning.  I'm saying that they can't afford to lose before February if they want to hold their place in the rankings.

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19 hours ago, cgeldmacher said:

I said this in another thread, but I think the fact that we only dropped one or two spots in the AP is due to two things:

(1) We have garnered a good deal of respect among college basketball insiders

(2) The loss to Minnesota on the road is not looked at as being a bad loss

I agree with you, but I worry the only reason we got as many votes as we did, is some may have already had their rankings done before our game/didn't watch our game.  I was worried we'd fall even further.  With only one game this week, and against a weak opponent, next Mondays votes is what I'm waiting for to get a true gauge at how the pundits see us.

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53 minutes ago, philliken said:

I agree with you, but I worry the only reason we got as many votes as we did, is some may have already had their rankings done before our game/didn't watch our game.  I was worried we'd fall even further.  With only one game this week, and against a weak opponent, next Mondays votes is what I'm waiting for to get a true gauge at how the pundits see us.

I don't think human error/laziness played a big factor. If you look at the teams behind us in AP voting, it's not like there's a strong case that we aren't deserving of our spot. 

  • Arkansas - 7-0 no wins against anyone of consequence. 
  • Indiana - 5-2 wins against Providence, Stanford, Butler
  • Clemson - 6-1 wins against Miss. St., Purdue, Maryland, Alabama (only loss to a good Va. Tech team)
  • Florida - 3-1 win against Boston College
  • Georgia - 6-0 win against Cincinnati 
  • Colorado - 6-1 wins against K State and Washington (both of whom are garbage)
  • Purdue - 6-2 wins against Ohio State and Notre Dame 
  • BYU - 8-2 wins against St. John's, Utah, and SDSU (but a loss to USC and Boise State)
  • Louisville - 4-1 wins against Seton Hall and WKU
  • Northwestern - 4-1 win against Michigan State (an interesting one, they have played two games of consequence, the other being a loss to Pitt who is looking solid after stumbling out of the gate)
  • UCF - 2-1 wins against Auburn and Florida State (with only loss to Michigan)

Some teams may be penalized for not having played very many games (Louisville, Northwestern, UCF) and some may be penalized for having 2 losses even if they are to solid teams (Indiana and Purdue), but that's just how it works. I'd put our 6-1 record and LSU and NC State wins up against any of those except perhaps Clemson, who has built an admittedly solid resume. 

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I personally believe we're deserving of our #28 spot in the rankings.  However, if someone needs a reason why we didn't drop further, I don't think that it has to do with voters voting before our game ended.  I think many national pundits have pressure to name the next big mid major team each year before the season begins.  They get asked the question all the time as if it is part of the script before the season.  Many, if not most, of them said that the Billikens were going to be one of the dark horse teams this year.  They don't want to be wrong about something that they said several times in print and on video before the season.  I think this works in our favor when the AP voting occurs.  Doesn't really help us in the coach's poll.

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Dropped to 7th in 'also receiving votes' in the AP Poll.  Essentially #32.  Minnesota did get in at 21.  So the one loss, is a good one.  I just don't think the conference is strong enough for us to garner the key wins to grab attention.  We might get there in a few weeks, but only if we do not lose; and if enough teams ahead of us fall.  I think we just need to win games, get a solid record (2-3 losses max?), and hope for a favorable seed in March.  Would love to see the # next to our team on ESPN, but it's not likely for a while.

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I am bullish that if we win both of our games this week, we will probably be back in. If we win all our next four games, we will 100% be in in two weeks. Even though we are technically #32, we are only a couple of points away from being #28. There are 8 big ten teams ranked #10-#25. Those teams will inevitably beat up on each other and some will separate from the pack.

As always, just win baby.

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33 minutes ago, philliken said:

Dropped to 7th in 'also receiving votes' in the AP Poll.  Essentially #32.  Minnesota did get in at 21.  So the one loss, is a good one.  I just don't think the conference is strong enough for us to garner the key wins to grab attention.  We might get there in a few weeks, but only if we do not lose; and if enough teams ahead of us fall.  I think we just need to win games, get a solid record (2-3 losses max?), and hope for a favorable seed in March.  Would love to see the # next to our team on ESPN, but it's not likely for a while.

It was said below, but the Bills just have to keep winning. I guess it would be a good time to stop looking at the polls for awhile. 

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Big game for a former SLU opponent tonight as Minnesota hosts #17 Michigan State.  A win for the Gophers continues to make that loss not look bad for SLU and perhaps drops Michigan St below SLU in the AP pecking order.  Izzo's only really good W is at Duke.  Minnesota then goes to #6 Wisconsin on NYE before hosting #25 Ohio State on Sunday.  Minn winning all 3 this week would be huge for SLU, but realistically I'd be happy with them knocking of MSU & Ohio State.

Elsewhere Indiana State is looking to split their 2 game set vs Drake after dropping game 1 yesterday.  It will be interesting to see how those 2 game sets in the Valley pan out.  You would think it is tougher to beat a team 2 days in a row than if you have some time off in between.

 

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I'm much more concerned with LSU continuing to win than Minnesota.  Right now LSU is hanging on as a Q1 win, with an approximate NET of 28.  Q1 Home wins extend to 30.  A hiccup by LSU and we lose our only Q1 win.  Minnesota is comfortably in a Q1 Away Loss for the Bills (approx NET of 42), so there is a lot of room for that game to stay Q1.   

What will remain unknown is how much emphasis the NCAA committee will put in NET this year. 

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