Murray St over the Bills by 3

[The Wiz]

Well the elephant in the room is....Do we have enough players to win games as we are currently configured? The answer is yes but more likely no. Critical mass for this team is 8 scholarship players ...ie 8 players who start and finish games.  If we have 8 who finish the game then we can make the spreads....and win some games .  Losing players at the start or during games will not lead to wins. This is known as The Alamo Syndrome....no matter how good your fighters/players are ...if you are overwhelmed you will eventually lose. And what's worse, the longer it goes on .....days weeks or months...the worse it becomes.  This game will complete my initial data collection for the season.....using real data vs forecasting models. Unfortunately, I will have  to add a data line....probability of completing game with 8 players.  A side note here...I hate adding these unnecessary "loser" stats. It still grates on me that a few years ago, I had to create sub categories for the F grade ( F+ and F-  ) during the Crews years. Thought the Bills would be done with that category by now  but......

Onto the game at hand. On paper it looks like we have no chance to win....We have slipped back to C and Murray St comes in at B- . On the report card below, it looks even worse ....they can shoot...they can score ...they can defend...So why is the point spread so close...They have done it against lesser competition....still...an impressive report card....let's take a look at it......

..................................SLU..........................OFF.....................MSU.....................................................SLU.....................Def............................MSU

PPG............................F- ..15rh worst in nation.....................A-.........................................................B.............................................................A-

FG%............................F...........................................................A+..14th in nation................................C.............................................................B+

3P%............................F-  ....10th worst in nation..................B- ..........................................................D- ...........................................................A

FT%.............................D+ .......................................................A-.............................................................................................................................

Reb...............................D- ........................................................C+

 

Top performers in the nation......

Goodwin.....Stls......27th

French,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Blks....33rd

 

Morant..........Assts....24th 

Buchanan.......FG%.......88th...61%

Bottom line....Can we win this game ?  I will keep it simple....Yes ...here is what we need....46/33/72 ....11 TOs  AND 8 players who finish the game.  Motto  for the game .....8 could be great....What happens if we lose??  Then the motto will be ....Remember the Alamo

 

[Cowboy]

-this is so disappointing we needed it three times? yikes, we can shoot, we don't make enough

-the rebounding edge we had at the start of the season has disappeared and it is too early for me to think it is due to a lack of bodies, but perhaps it is

[Quality Is Job 1]

3 hours ago, Cowboy said:

-this is so disappointing we needed it three times? yikes, we can shoot, we don't make enough

-the rebounding edge we had at the start of the season has disappeared and it is too early for me to think it is due to a lack of bodies, but perhaps it is

I deleted the extra posts.  It appeared the website was down for a while this afternoon; maybe something pertaining to that glitch caused Wiz to make multiple posts.

[LindellWest]

9 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

I deleted the extra posts.  It appeared the website was down for a while this afternoon; maybe something pertaining to that glitch caused Wiz to make multiple posts.

I had hoped the site was down because of traffic due to some new and positive news about sit 2.....

[Billiken Rich]

18 minutes ago, LindellWest said:

I had hoped the site was down because of traffic due to some new and positive news about sit 2.....

Jesus.......me too

[White Pelican]

I was hoping the site was down while trolls were being removed.

[BillsBeliever!!!]

We won by 14! Woohoo!

[johnbj14]

Wiz, I'm kind of curious how tonight worked out the way it did. Obviously no complaints, but played below the critical mass number of 8 and still found a way to win. Perhaps a statistical anomaly? 

[BillsBeliever!!!]

New motto for the game- Fantastic Five

[The Wiz]

5 hours ago, johnbj14 said:

Wiz, I'm kind of curious how tonight worked out the way it did. Obviously no complaints, but played below the critical mass number of 8 and still found a way to win. Perhaps a statistical anomaly? 

I don't think  this game was an anomaly....but the numbers are very interesting. On the surface this looks like a close game....Not just the pregame spread but the post game stats. Let's look at those stats....

Let's start with the Bills slash line........35.5/ 29.2/ 60 ...not great numbers ...these are typical Bills numbers...usually a losing line.  So what did MSU "s numbers look like? Pretty much the same................................ ....34.5/ 27.8 /63.2   So fortunately for the Bills these 2 lines cancel each other out. But maybe it wasn't good fortune...maybe it was great Bills D...I will go with this.  In any case the 2 lines are a wash. What about rebounds?  43-39...slight edge to the Bills. Maybe in a win by 2 points this is a difference maker but again this is essentially a wash.  So what happened? Let's look at some different slash lines.....First excess shots...7/ 8 /11...these are the extra shots the Bills had...and how about this....extra points as a result of those extra shots...2/ 6/ 6  equals 2+ 6 + 6=14pts the margin of victory.   And last but not least... TOs...an excellent 9 for the game vs 15 for MSU....worth 12 extra pts for the Bills.  This was the second single digit TO game in the last three...the other being the SIU game ...another game turned into a win by low TO numbers. Single digit TO games are special...similar to a team shooting in the 42% range from 3.  When you keep those numbers down it makes up for a lot of bad things in a game. Championship teams average below 10 TOs in a game. Not saying this is a championship team at this point but the TOs have trended down this year. If you think back over the last 3 years, we lost so many games on TOs.  So many games with 20+ TOs. When you have 20 + TOs  in a game ...you lose ...no matter what else you do. The point is that this is a good trend...one to build on...and when help arrives this team could be something special. 

Finally, if there was an anomaly it was winning the game with 7 players...French had 4 fouls...we were 1 foul away from disaster. This was just a great effort...no one can accuse this team of not having a lot of heart ...going all out....But critical mass is still important....any time SLU drops below 8 players ...before or during a game...the chances of a loss start to increase greatly. We have little or no room for error at this point.

Great game...but no time to let up....OSU will be just as difficult  as MSU.

[3star_recruit]

In games where we can out-physical the other teams, we have a chance to win.  In games where we don't have a physical advantage, we get blown out.  It's either feast or famine.

 

[David King]

8 hours ago, johnbj14 said:

Wiz, I'm kind of curious how tonight worked out the way it did. Obviously no complaints, but played below the critical mass number of 8 and still found a way to win. Perhaps a statistical anomaly? 

When making game predictions, Jimmy the Greek always gave one team a check mark for "intangibles". Maybe the Wiz should add this factor into his game predictions?

[slu72 fan]

In games that Has doesn't get in foul trouble, we are very competitive. As soon as he sits, we become extremely beatable!

Occam's Razor

[kshoe]

2 minutes ago, slu72 fan said:

In games that Has doesn't get in foul trouble, we are very competitive. As soon as he sits, we become extremely beatable!

Occam's Razor

This. He is the team MVP in that he's the one guy that can't be on the bench.

Honestly, I'm not sure that changes much even if S2 gets resolved soon as we still have very little interior depth. Getting Whelmer back would help some.

[HoosierPal]

10 minutes ago, kshoe said:

This. He is the team MVP in that he's the one guy that can't be on the bench.

Honestly, I'm not sure that changes much even if S2 gets resolved soon as we still have very little interior depth. Getting Whelmer back would help some.

I agree that French is the one player that we need on the floor as much as possible. We don't have an adequate defensive replacement for him in either Foreman or Anthony. Foreman can score some and rebound some, but doesn't defend the post like French. 

Welmer doesn't bring the same skill set as French.  Welmer is the perfect Pick and Pop man.  French has shown ability on the Pick and Roll.  Welmer does defend the rim better than Foreman or Anthony, but like the other two, doesn't stop a strong pivot man in the paint.  I see Welmer more suited as backing up Johnson than French, but he undoubtedly will be in the pivot at times when he comes back.

[NH]

11 minutes ago, kshoe said:

This. He is the team MVP in that he's the one guy that can't be on the bench.

Honestly, I'm not sure that changes much even if S2 gets resolved soon as we still have very little interior depth. Getting Whelmer back would help some.

I agree though I would also say one of the reasons he’s so vital to our offense is that we have zero shooting so it’s important that we run our offense through him in the post. Were we to get some shooting back that could alleviate that burden a little.

[billiken_roy]

it was key last night that we were the bigger and stronger team last night enabling us to win the lane.   

however if there is a better example of this teams lack of depth (look at the minutes last night) i dont know what it could be.   i said it months ago, there will be a huge drop off in quality minutes from the starters to the subs (and that was when i was assuming that foreman and anthony were quality bigs.  they appear to be less than what was expected as we need french to play 35 minutes a game for now until gordon arrives)   even if we get our other players back that division in quality will be there imo.   we really need next years recruits to all be homeruns and then likely another year or two of big recruiting to completely give us the depth we need to compete against top team and be a true ncaa team that can go to the second or third round of the tourney. 

i am still hopeful this is a 500 team this year.   getting welmer and henriquez back will go a long way.    

[moytoy12]

7 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

it was key last night that we were the bigger and stronger team last night enabling us to win the lane.   

however if there is a better example of this teams lack of depth (look at the minutes last night) i dont know what it could be.   i said it months ago, there will be a huge drop off in quality minutes from the starters to the subs (and that was when i was assuming that foreman and anthony were quality bigs.  they appear to be less than what was expected as we need french to play 35 minutes a game for now until gordon arrives)   even if we get our other players back that division in quality will be there imo.   we really need next years recruits to all be homeruns and then likely another year or two of big recruiting to completely give us the depth we need to compete against top team and be a true ncaa team that can go to the second or third round of the tourney. 

i am still hopeful this is a 500 team this year.   getting welmer and henriquez back will go a long way.    

Re: next year's team, assuming we'll have the 3 players back, we're going to have a deep and talented team:

Santos, Foreman

French, Gordon, Welmer

JJ, Bess, Pearson

AD, Thatch

Goodwin, Bishop, Graves

The above team is a 2nd/3rd round tourney team. We won't need another year or two of recruiting to get there. 

 

[Pistol]

French took a little while to get going. He started by missing a few layups, but it seemed like the switch flipped after he missed those first two free throws. He went into werewolf mode after that. We had a super moon last week, which may have had something to do with it as well. Hope those effects linger.

@TheChosenOne called it "bully ball" in a text last night, and that's perfect. We have to grind games out and be physical. It isn't pretty, but we have to play to our strengths until and unless we get those other guys back. The zone was effective and I hope to see more of that going forward. With so few available guys, and these particular players, it just makes sense. Saves energy, favors our physicality, frees up French for blocks and boards.

[kappy96]

58 minutes ago, kshoe said:

This. He is the team MVP in that he's the one guy that can't be on the bench.

Honestly, I'm not sure that changes much even if S2 gets resolved soon as we still have very little interior depth. Getting Whelmer back would help some.

As this team is currently constructed I agree with you and I think French will and should continue to a focal point but getting back our S2 players and Welmer will allow Ford to play the way he intended...a little more pressing, pushing the tempo and giving us more dimensions on the offensive end.  It will make us more difficult to game plan for.  I don't expect a switch to be turned on if/when our guys return but I like the idea of building towards that during A10 play.

[brianstl]

1 hour ago, kshoe said:

This. He is the team MVP in that he's the one guy that can't be on the bench.

Honestly, I'm not sure that changes much even if S2 gets resolved soon as we still have very little interior depth. Getting Whelmer back would help some.

I think if we ever add AD, Graves and Bishop to the line-up it will actually help some with the interior depth.  Adding three guys that can play on the wings means both Bess and Johnson can give you more minutes at the four in what would be a much better equipped small ball line-up.

[teamarete]

1 hour ago, moytoy12 said:

Re: next year's team, assuming we'll have the 3 players back, we're going to have a deep and talented team:

Santos, Foreman

French, Gordon, Welmer

JJ, Bess, Pearson

AD, Thatch

Goodwin, Bishop, Graves

The above team is a 2nd/3rd round tourney team. We won't need another year or two of recruiting to get there. 

 

IMO, Gordon and French start next year.

[billiken_roy]

27 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

Re: next year's team, assuming we'll have the 3 players back, we're going to have a deep and talented team:

Santos, Foreman

French, Gordon, Welmer

JJ, Bess, Pearson

AD, Thatch

Goodwin, Bishop, Graves

The above team is a 2nd/3rd round tourney team. We won't need another year or two of recruiting to get there. 

 

just my opinon of the above roster as we havent seen a lot of them yet. 

santos is an unknown.  after the disappointment of foreman and anthony this year, i have tempered my santos expectations even though he looks fabulous sitting at the end of the bench in sweats.

foreman.   while he has had moments, he hasnt been the inside big we expected he is better than the bigs that we have had the last few seasons, but at this point do you want foreman as our center for 30+ minutes a game?   do you expect him to carry the quality of play at the same level french will provide if he is french's primary sub?

french is a stud.   will become our next anthony bonner if not more.

gordon we all pray he is french 2.0 next year

jamal johnson. when he physically matches up like he did last night, he is very good.   he is without a doubt the best outside shooter on this team right now until henriquez, welmer and bishop show up to challenge that.   i would love to see him have a conklin summer in the weight room to be able to compete more under the basket as well.  

welmer, is johnson's sub and honestly assuming he comes back 100% will be a good match to johnson.  

bess is the best player on our team right now.   he is a 35 mpg guy

pearson we all hope and pray he is what we expected henriquez to be this year.   a total sniper.  the fact he plays a small school schedule now in high school lends the thought his current accomplishments might be overstated to reality, however we have all seen the highlights.  what's he doing when the highlight camera is off?  

henriquez we are all still anxiously waiting.....

thatch.   the most encouraging thing with fred thatch is we are hearing he has developed aspects of his game that were questionable before.  i eagerly await his arrival.   is he the next justin love?  wouldnt that be nice.

goodwin if jordan starts making shots (his shot looks right, he just isnt making shots) he becomes a historical billiken.   he fills the stat line like no freshman has at slu since larry hughes.  last night while the shooting again sucked, he played about as complete a game as we have seen in a long time.   ford remarked on the post game show that in ford's opinion last night was goodwin's best game of the year and that goodwin controlled the game.   goodwin is fast becoming the difference maker where if he has a good game the billikens have a good game.

bishop and graves incomplete.   no doubt bishop sitting in the corner waiting for a kick out pass from goodwin or bess for a wide open three would be great to see.   and we are all waiting to see this fantastic athleticism and speed reputed by graves.  

does give us hope.  

 

[TFord and TRavs]

1 minute ago, teamarete said:

IMO, Gordon and French start next year.

Easily. French just because and Gordon to get ready for conference. 

Also yesterday showed we are one of the most athletic and fit teams in ncaa. 5 players played almost the entire game. 

That shows me the two Factors we lack rn are shooting percentage and morale. Once the players are back it should be solved 

[brianstl]

I am starting to wonder in Goodwin getting contacts right before the season is the problem with his shot.  I wonder if he hasn't been able to adjust to seeing the basket differently.