The Wiz Posted January 6 Posted January 6 Great win against St. J. To see how we did it check out the post game analysis under the SJ spread thread. We are still at B- ...We are on our way to B...A win over St. B will get us there. I have mentioned a number of times that B is the magic grade level. We have been gelling the last 2 weeks. When we get to B that will be the signal that we have arrived. At that point we will be in a position to compete for a top 4 spot in the A10. This game could put us over the top. Game preview... This won't be easy...St. B comes in with a lot of momentum as they come off whupping Fordham for their 8th straight win. They come in at an A level and a great Chance to Dance in March. So how does it look? Well the good news is we also have momentum with 2 decisive wins in the last 2 games. In addition we are gelling at the right time. When looking at the stats, we clearly have the better offense. The problem is not only do they have a better defense but one of the best defenses in the country. The good news is that while the computer has St. B favored, it thinks we can beat them if we play our game. That means we play an up tempo , fast and aggressive game. St. B will try to play a slow, sluggish game. They will want this game to be a defensive struggle. If we play our game...we win...if we play their game we lose. There is one other item we need to discuss before we look at the report card. Everyone know this team, as most past Schertz teams, are all about shooting...especially 3 pt shooting...with a smattering of up close 2s. I have heard it said... as our 3 P shooting goes, so goes the game. This isn't quite true. The last game was a below average 3P game yet we won handily. We don't talk much about 2s but in the report card below you will note our FG% has gone up and has been on the rise over the last couple of weeks. The FG% which is composed of 2s and 3s did not go up because we did great from the arc. It went up because we hit 2s. Here is the hidden stat no one talks about because it is missing from the slash line. WE ARE 7th ITN IN 2P%. We are shooting about 60% from close in. To beat that at the arc, we would have to shoot 40% or better ....which we do sometimes but overall average about 36%. Fit this factoid under the category of "why we win". Now let's look at the Card and see what's up.... Report Card.... Report Card change....5 up...0 dn...4 unchanged = +5....for the 2nd game in a row ...no down categories...keep it going UP.....OFF....FG%.....Reb...DEF....FG%...PPG...3P% Dn....OFF...none....DEF...none ................SLU..................St.B.....................SLU......................St. B ...........................OFF...................................................DEF.......... PPG...........B-..................D+.........................C+......................A+..11th ITN FG%..........A-..................B..........................B-........................A- 3P%...........B...................D+........................C.........................B- FT%..........F.....................B-.............................................................. Reb............C+...................C-.......................D..........................B+ OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU... PPG...Jimerson ....65th...dn ..........Swope.........57th....up ..........Avila............67th...up 3PM......Jimerson...25th...up ..............Swope........51st...dn Reb....Anya...........16th...up FG%...Anya.....96th...dn St. B FG%...Brown...43rd Stls...Council...17th Injuries Player Status/Updated Notes AJ Casey F Ques Fri - Undisclosed - 1/4/25 Casey is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will dress against St Bonaventure on Wednesday. Josiah Dotzler G out of season - Knee - 11/26/24 Dotzler has been sidelined with a knee injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season. Player Status/Updated Notes Dasonte Bowen G Ques Wed - Foot - 1/4/25 Bowen sat out the previous four games due to a foot injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Saint Louis on Wednesday. Jaxon Edwards G Out indefinitely - Undisclosed - 12/31/24 Edwards will miss an extended period due to a groin injury, and it is unknown how long he will be debilitated. Keys to the game....Play fast and aggressive from the opening buzzer all game. They will try to let the 30 sec clock run down. Keep TOs down ...no unforced errors...Make pts not TOs. WWN2D2W.....Target slash 49 / 36 / 73....win Rebs by 2... TOs even...Hold them to less than 70pts...Hold Moore, Council and Brown to a combined total of 34 pts. Bottom line.. Play like you are going to win...If we can make them play our game and we make some shots ...we win. My Bonnie lies over the ocean My Bonnie would like to see A Billiken win at the Chaifetz Please bring home a winner for me. Go Bills billikenbill, Adman, SLUMedBilliken15 and 1 other 4 Quote
slu72 Posted January 6 Posted January 6 Game of 5 on 5. St B plays with a short bench too. Stay out of foul trouble could be a key. Quote
CenHudDude Posted January 6 Posted January 6 1 hour ago, Billikenbooster said: I think GW beat Dayton, not StB True, and it wasn’t a whupping. Quote
CenHudDude Posted January 6 Posted January 6 6 hours ago, The Wiz said: Great win against St. J. To see how we did it check out the post game analysis under the SJ spread thread. We are still at B- ...We are on our way to B...A win over St. B will get us there. I have mentioned a number of times that B is the magic grade level. We have been gelling the last 2 weeks. When we get to B that will be the signal that we have arrived. At that point we will be in a position to compete for a top 4 spot in the A10. This game could put us over the top. Game preview... This won't be easy...St. B comes in with a lot of momentum as they come off whupping Dayton in an upset. They come in at an A level and a great Chance to Dance in March. So how does it look? Well the good news is we also have momentum with 2 decisive wins in the last 2 games. In addition we are gelling at the right time. When looking at the stats, we clearly have the better offense. The problem is not only do they have a better defense but one of the best defenses in the country. The good news is that while the computer has St. B favored, it thinks we can beat them if we play our game. That means we play an up tempo , fast and aggressive game. St. B will try to play a slow, sluggish game. They will want this game to be a defensive struggle. If we play our game...we win...if we play their game we lose. There is one other item we need to discuss before we look at the report card. Everyone know this team, as most past Schertz teams, are all about shooting...especially 3 pt shooting...with a smattering of up close 2s. I have heard it said... as our 3 P shooting goes, so goes the game. This isn't quite true. The last game was a below average 3P game yet we won handily. We don't talk much about 2s but in the report card below you will note our FG% has gone up and has been on the rise over the last couple of weeks. The FG% which is composed of 2s and 3s did not go up because we did great from the arc. It went up because we hit 2s. Here is the hidden stat no one talks about because it is missing from the slash line. WE ARE 7th ITN IN 2P%. We are shooting about 60% from close in. To beat that at the arc, we would have to shoot 40% or better ....which we do sometimes but overall average about 36%. Fit this factoid under the category of "why we win". Now let's look at the Card and see what's up.... Report Card.... Report Card change....5 up...0 dn...4 unchanged = +5....for the 2nd game in a row ...no down categories...keep it going UP.....OFF....FG%.....Reb...DEF....FG%...PPG...3P% Dn....OFF...none....DEF...none ................SLU..................St.B.....................SLU......................St. B ...........................OFF...................................................DEF.......... PPG...........B-..................D+.........................C+......................A+..11th ITN FG%..........A-..................B..........................B-........................A- 3P%...........B...................D+........................C.........................B- FT%..........F.....................B-.............................................................. Reb............C+...................C-.......................D..........................B+ OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU... PPG...Jimerson ....65th...dn ..........Swope.........57th....up ..........Avila............67th...up 3PM......Jimerson...25th...up ..............Swope........51st...dn Reb....Anya...........16th...up FG%...Anya.....96th...dn St. B FG%...Brown...43rd Stls...Council...17th Injuries Player Status/Updated Notes AJ Casey F Ques Fri - Undisclosed - 1/4/25 Casey is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will dress against St Bonaventure on Wednesday. Josiah Dotzler G out of season - Knee - 11/26/24 Dotzler has been sidelined with a knee injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season. Player Status/Updated Notes Dasonte Bowen G Ques Wed - Foot - 1/4/25 Bowen sat out the previous four games due to a foot injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Saint Louis on Wednesday. Jaxon Edwards G Out indefinitely - Undisclosed - 12/31/24 Edwards will miss an extended period due to a groin injury, and it is unknown how long he will be debilitated. Keys to the game....Play fast and aggressive from the opening buzzer all game. They will try to let the 30 sec clock run down. Keep TOs down ...no unforced errors...Make pts not TOs. WWN2D2W.....Target slash 49 / 36 / 73....win Rebs by 2... TOs even...Hold them to less than 70pts...Hold Moore, Council and Brown to a combined total of 34 pts. Bottom line.. Play like you are going to win...If we can make them play our game and we make some shots ...we win. My Bonnie lies over the ocean My Bonnie would like to see A Billiken win at the Chaifetz Please bring home a winner for me. Go Bills Looking at the defensive grades it appears that the Bonnies defend the two better than the three. Your point is well taken that twos are important for the Bills, but in this matchup maybe we better have a lot of made 3s. Quote
slu72 Posted January 6 Posted January 6 53 minutes ago, CenHudDude said: True, and it wasn’t a whupping. 20 points is at the least an arse kicking. Quote
The Wiz Posted January 6 Author Posted January 6 2 hours ago, Billikenbooster said: I think GW beat Dayton, not StB Fixed it ...Thanks Quote
HoosierPal Posted January 6 Posted January 6 Here is a fun fact. Guess which two teams are NCAA D1 last and next to last in Bench Points? Stats listed are games, points and average. https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/1284/p8 354 Saint Louis 15 151 10.07 355 St. Bonaventure 15 149 9.93 Dr. Holly Hills and Lord Elrond 1 1 Quote
Lord Elrond Posted January 6 Posted January 6 17 minutes ago, HoosierPal said: Here is a fun fact. Guess which two teams are NCAA D1 last and next to last in Bench Points? Stats listed are games, points and average. https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/1284/p8 354 Saint Louis 15 151 10.07 355 St. Bonaventure 15 149 9.93 We beat them on bench points!!!! Quote
Bay Area Billiken Posted January 6 Posted January 6 https://x.com/theandykatz/status/1876285909173522743?s=46&t=jikm5nKg-NlIUjy2c9C9zw Mark Schmidt coach speaks with Andy Katz. Gremio14 1 Quote
HoosierPal Posted January 6 Posted January 6 33 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said: We beat them on bench points!!!! There won't be much action at the scorer's table! If either team has foul trouble with one of their Iron Five, that could flip the game. Click on the link and see who is first. Quote
slu72 Posted January 6 Posted January 6 Over the past 3 years Schmidt has gone with besaically 5 starters for at least 35 mpg. It’s why they play slow ball. They use the clock to limit their opponents possessions. It works as his Brown Indians have winning records. I expect the score to be in the 60’s. Hopefully we can build a lead that will force them to pickup their pace. Quote
shempie Posted January 6 Posted January 6 This is the type of game we haven't won since RM's teams. At home with a chance to make a statement and stay atop the A10. Wiz, as always, thanks for your analysis. While I realize it is never a single factor, what is the magic number on TO differential for this game? I feel like this will be a mid 60's to low 70's game and TO's will be critical. Quote
The Wiz Posted January 6 Author Posted January 6 6 minutes ago, shempie said: This is the type of game we haven't won since RM's teams. At home with a chance to make a statement and stay atop the A10. Wiz, as always, thanks for your analysis. While I realize it is never a single factor, what is the magic number on TO differential for this game? I feel like this will be a mid 60's to low 70's game and TO's will be critical. I agree with you ...TOs will be critical...We have a respectable 11.8 TO rate (C+)...St. B has a good rate of 10.7 (B+) ..That is why in the WWN2D2W section in the original post , I wanted us to be even on TOs. Their goal is to slow play us and keep it close until the final 5 min and then put on a burst and try to take the game from us. If we play like we did the last 2 games...fast , up tempo and aggressive (without making mistakes-TOs), their strategy won't work. Instead they will tire in the final minutes and we can open it up and take the game. The team that controls the game, wins the game. The unstoppable force (Bills offense) vs the immovable object (Bonnie defense). Quote
Bay Area Billiken Posted January 6 Posted January 6 As Mark Schmidt noted to Andy Katz, Bonnies have the best NET in the A10: 51. Quote
Cowboy II Posted January 6 Posted January 6 -Shempie and The Wiz nailed it -I remember scoffing at Schmidt's Iron 5, now we have it Quote
ACE Posted January 6 Posted January 6 3 hours ago, Cowboy II said: -Shempie and The Wiz nailed it -I remember scoffing at Schmidt's Iron 5, now we have it It didn't work for his 2020-21 team. Preseason Top 25, but underachieved and had his season ended by Travis - who did a better job that season than board fave Schmidt. Quote
VeniceMenace Posted January 6 Posted January 6 Beat the Bonnies and SLU has a legit chance to accomplish something never achieved during the Ford years--finish above 4th place in the A10. Quote
willie Posted January 7 Posted January 7 1 hour ago, VeniceMenace said: Beat the Bonnies and SLU has a legit chance to accomplish something never achieved during the Ford years--finish above 4th place in the A10. I agree Wednesday is big for our team but it’s very premature to project a top 3 finish after 3 games. I know you said chance but let’s not get too carried away . VeniceMenace 1 Quote
CenHudDude Posted January 7 Posted January 7 11 hours ago, slu72 said: 20 points is at the least an arse kicking. You’re right of course. I was thinking about the Bonnies W over the Rams of Richmond when I posted that. Quote
TheA_Bomb Posted January 7 Posted January 7 KemPom has this as 46% chance to win SBU 71 SLU 70 I say SLU 76 SBU 72, it's in the friendly confines of Chaifetz Arena. True road games for SBU include, FGCU, Bucknell, Siena and Fordham. Look for SLU to push the tempo to try and unsettle SBU. Now that they're gelling, they are trying to run more. 3-0 start to Conference play is quite the turn around from the end of non-conference play. Quote
Fraz Posted January 7 Posted January 7 Maybe just as important as the TOs are the FTs. Let’s hope we can get a respectable % in what should be a close game billikenbill 1 Quote
The Wiz Posted January 7 Author Posted January 7 14 minutes ago, Fraz said: Maybe just as important as the TOs are the FTs. Let’s hope we can get a respectable % in what should be a close game I agree. Interestingly, in the last 2 games, we have shot a respectable 71.4%(10-14 in both games) vs 64.4%. Not a big difference but the difference between an F and a C and maybe a game changer in a close game. CenHudDude and Fraz 2 Quote
Old guy Posted January 7 Posted January 7 When The Wiz's program has St Bona favorite to win by 4 pts, and Team Rankings has SLU favorite to win by 3.4 points. The clear message in this spread is that either of the two teams can win this game. It will be an interesting game for sure. Go Bills! Quote
White Pelican Posted January 7 Posted January 7 25 minutes ago, Old guy said: When The Wiz's program has St Bona favorite to win by 4 pts, and Team Rankings has SLU favorite to win by 3.4 points. The clear message in this spread is that either of the two teams can win this game. It will be an interesting game for sure. Go Bills! 3.4? Man, that's really chiseling it down to a gnat's rear end. slu72 1 Quote
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