slu72 Posted January 7 Posted January 7 I think it’s gonna come down to foul trouble. We got to stay out of it and they have to get in it. CenHudDude 1 Quote
gobillsgo Posted January 7 Posted January 7 21 minutes ago, slu72 said: I think it’s gonna come down to foul trouble. We got to stay out of it and they have to get in it. Crowd pressure is a big factor in referee performance. Just see the GCU game. Need people to be loud, gonna be tough with no students. Quote
ACE Posted January 7 Posted January 7 2 hours ago, Old guy said: When The Wiz's program has St Bona favorite to win by 4 pts, and Team Rankings has SLU favorite to win by 3.4 points. The clear message in this spread is that either of the two teams can win this game. It will be an interesting game for sure. Go Bills! One thing that is clear- either team can win and one of them in fact WILL win. HoosierPal and papalorenzini 2 Quote
Cowboy II Posted January 7 Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, ACE said: One thing that will is clear- either team can win and one of them in fact WILL win. -crap, I bet on a tie Quote
Old guy Posted January 8 Posted January 8 1 hour ago, White Pelican said: 3.4? Man, that's really chiseling it down to a gnat's rear end. You can email Team Rankings and discuss angels on the head of a pin or the size of gnat's rear ends, but I think this would be a waste of time. My thinking about Team Rankings' predictions is that their main baseline programs decided on SLU being the likely winner of this game with a low level of confidence. Then the bettors brought the odds down for SLU by placing bets in favor of St. Bona. This is not the kind of betting most people do, it has a good deal of thinking and programming backing it up. If you do not understand that the real message here is that either team can win this game and you are not not a bettor, why should you bring up the size of a gnat's rear end to anyone's attention? Team rankings is a professional betting company that makes money by estimating sports events odds. They are in the business of selling their odds and betting strategies to bettors. Needless to say, they are successful and have been in business for a fair amount of time. The Wiz's program is in the same league as the professional odds companies' are, whether or not he sells his advise to the betting public. What the Wiz's and Team Rankings' baseline programs do is based upon very sophisticated statistical probability analysis taking into account all kinds of different variables. Everyone else in the business of charging money for advise on the odds of a team to win a game, use some variation of basically the same kind of programming, the difference between all of these companies and individual advisors programs being that they may incorporate variables and empirical fudge factors that other systems do not use. Quote
Fraz Posted January 8 Posted January 8 I haven’t been this excited for a game in quite some time. Roll Bills! slu92 1 Quote
HoosierPal Posted January 8 Posted January 8 Nice 'Virtural Preview' by SBUnfurled. Their PG Bowen remains out for the game. He shows this will be a Q2 game for both teams. Quote
slu72 Posted January 8 Posted January 8 15 hours ago, ACE said: One thing that is clear- either team can win and one of them in fact WILL win. Ahh, the old 50-50 concept. BLIKNS 1 Quote
almaman Posted January 8 Posted January 8 15 hours ago, Cowboy II said: -crap, I bet on a tie Ha ha u lose Quote
slu72 Posted January 8 Posted January 8 10 hours ago, HoosierPal said: Nice 'Virtural Preview' by SBUnfurled. Their PG Bowen remains out for the game. He shows this will be a Q2 game for both teams. Their advantage in off boards and TO’s is scary. For every second chance opportunity they get add another 20-25 seconds to their time of possession. TO’s speak for themselves but since possessions are like diamonds against STB’s we can’t be squandering them. Quote
someoneelse Posted January 8 Posted January 8 CBS Sports shows the Bills as a 2.5 point favorite. Quote
HoosierPal Posted January 8 Posted January 8 Their offensive boards and TO's rates compared to ours are impressive. I also look at points in the paint. We have won only one game where we lost the points in the paint stat - St. Joe. All of our other wins we win PIP. With our offense using only two shots, one at the rim and one beyond the arc, we need to win PIP. Quote
The Wiz Posted January 8 Author Posted January 8 1 hour ago, slu72 said: Their advantage in off boards and TO’s is scary. For every second chance opportunity they get add another 20-25 seconds to their time of possession. TO’s speak for themselves but since possessions are like diamonds against STB’s we can’t be squandering them. I ran the numbers again this morning ...no change but in honor of @Old guy today's spread is showing St. B by 4.0287( the computer likes 4 decimal places). The computer's concern is similar to yours especially on offensive rebs. Their big guy Brown (6'11" center) plants himself under the basket and looks for 2 ft putbacks or kicks it out for another 20 sec. You will note in the report card in the original post above that Brown is 43rd ITN in FG%(putbacks). The computer thinks if we can hold him to 8 pts we can win. Btw , he is a good FT shooter, so fouling him won't help either. TOs are always a concern, but the computer is not as worried there. We have shown we can protect the ball...they lead us by about 1 TO/ gm...If we don't play carelessly we should be able to match them on TOs. Player to watch ...Council...17th ITN in steals(2.5/gm) ...who ever he is guarding will have to play heads up ball. St. B is not an offensive team thus the reason for their slow down. If we have a good shooting night(49/36/73) we have a good chance to win. Go Bills Quote
Bay Area Billiken Posted January 8 Posted January 8 ESPN and CBS Sports both have SLU -3.5, Total 140.5. Quote
Old guy Posted January 8 Posted January 8 @The Wiz I also have my spreadsheets and programs set to 4 decimal points. I do want to clarify one simple point, I do not pay for the information I get from Team Rankings, I only use what they make available for free. When you are retired you try to eliminate all non necessary expenses. Quote
The Wiz Posted January 8 Author Posted January 8 I spoke to my friend at the Vegas sports book and asked him what's up. He said their original model (before betting) showed SLU winning by 4.5. When betting opened up the line moved down to 2.5 and now has moved back to 3.5 He said their model is sensitive to trending. He thinks that SLU had been hurt (pardon the pun) by injuries and that now things are more normal it is showing a more realistic trend...ie this is the real SLU.... So I tried my trend model which shows the last 10 games only... giving more weight to recent games and less as you go back in time...and it still shows SB winning by 2. I notice KenPom also has SB by 1. I will leave you with a quote my Vegas friend always uses when we differ..."We know things you don't." slu92 1 Quote
thunderdan Posted January 8 Posted January 8 15 hours ago, HoosierPal said: Nice 'Virtural Preview' by SBUnfurled. Their PG Bowen remains out for the game. He shows this will be a Q2 game for both teams. I think we're underselling the big breaking news. LH2 is back! HoosierPal 1 Quote
Bay Area Billiken Posted January 8 Posted January 8 (edited) 36 minutes ago, The Wiz said: I spoke to my friend at the Vegas sports book and asked him what's up. He said their original model (before betting) showed SLU winning by 4.5. When betting opened up the line moved down to 2.5 and now has moved back to 3.5 He said their model is sensitive to trending. He thinks that SLU had been hurt (pardon the pun) by injuries and that now things are more normal it is showing a more realistic trend...ie this is the real SLU.... So I tried my trend model which shows the last 10 games only... giving more weight to recent games and less as you go back in time...and it still shows SB winning by 2. I notice KenPom also has SB by 1. I will leave you with a quote my Vegas friend always uses when we differ..."We know things you don't." Yes, but we all know that the Billikens are playing at home. It should be quite a game. Edited January 8 by Bay Area Billiken BLIKNS 1 Quote
Bay Area Billiken Posted January 8 Posted January 8 Torvik has St. Bona -4.9, predicted score: St. Bona 71 SLU 66. Other metrics to compare: NET: SLU 126, Bona 52; Pomeroy: SLU 118, Bona 65; ESPN BPI: SLU 122, Bona 94; RPI: SLU 140, Bona 41; Torvik: SLU 123, Bona 46; Massey: SLU 128, Bona 51. Average of the above 6 metrics: SLU 126.2, Bona 58.2. Even if SLU is favored on The Strip, we can still spin this one as the underdog. Quote
VeniceMenace Posted January 8 Posted January 8 1 hour ago, thunderdan said: I think we're underselling the big breaking news. LH2 is back! Thunderdan toking product from "ganjapreneur" Larry Legend Hughes? Quote
SLU_Nick Posted January 8 Posted January 8 I’ve followed the Wiz closely for many years. I’ve never seen a Wiz and tipoff Vegas line ever 7.5 points apart. I just pounded the Bonnie’s at +3.5 and hope I lose cash! go bills! Quote
The Wiz Posted January 9 Author Posted January 9 52 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said: I’ve followed the Wiz closely for many years. I’ve never seen a Wiz and tipoff Vegas line ever 7.5 points apart. I just pounded the Bonnie’s at +3.5 and hope I lose cash! go bills! This is a big difference...How about if The Bills win and St. B covers ...then you can be happy twice. SLU_Nick 1 Quote
Old guy Posted January 9 Posted January 9 What a game! I could not get the links to work so I listened to it. We won by 5 pts I think. It was close at the end but we won! Looking good. Now onto the next game. Go Bills! Quote
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