BillsBeliever!!! Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 6 hours ago, courtside said: Outisde of the 68 team field: Lunardi has SLU 81 Bracketville has SLU 80 Doesn’t sounds great being the 12th team out until you realize just how close the bubble teams are to each other. Getting a road Q1 win would bump us right back to almost first 4 out range A10Ref likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lando Griffin Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 This sorta doesn’t apply here but my God I’m suffering through the Mizzou game and this team is so bad. Makes me so happy to be a Billikens fan. cgeldmacher and A10Ref like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compton Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 On 2/18/2022 at 2:27 PM, cgeldmacher said: I get your sentiment and do not disagree with it, but what you described is only avoided by going undefeated. If you don't go undefeated, you are going to have losses that break up your win streaks. It's not about going undefeated as much as staying in the NCAA Bid mix. Each time we're on the bubble, there's a harsh dose of reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgeldmacher Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 22 hours ago, Compton said: It's not about going undefeated as much as staying in the NCAA Bid mix. Each time we're on the bubble, there's a harsh dose of reality. True, but my point is, any you may agree, that those losses are just indicative of who this team is. slufanskip likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 SLU enters tonight's St. Joe's game with NET 59, which would be the 10th team into the NIT, an NIT 3 Seed. Other SLU ratings: ESPN BPI 48, Pomeroy 59, Sagarin 53, Haslametrics 62, Team Rankings 59, RPI 60, Massey (through Sunday 2/20/22) 59. The average of the 8 ratings is 57.375. Team Rankings gives SLU a 15.8% chance of receiving an NCAA Bid, still predicts SLU's final regular season record at 21-10 rounded off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 14 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said: SLU enters tonight's St. Joe's game with NET 59, which would be the 10th team into the NIT, an NIT 3 Seed. Other SLU ratings: ESPN BPI 48, Pomeroy 59, Sagarin 53, Haslametrics 62, Team Rankings 59, RPI 60, Massey (through Sunday 2/20/22) 59. The average of the 8 ratings is 57.375. Team Rankings gives SLU a 15.8% chance of receiving an NCAA Bid, still predicts SLU's final regular season record at 21-10 rounded off. SLU exited tonight's win with a NET of 59. No movement. St. Bonnie exited their win at Rhody with a NET of 84, having dropped from 83 with the win. The A10 is screwed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Bona beat URI at home near Olean. Non-Power 5’s don’t get much NET bump for winning home games they’re supposed to win. The one small move of possible significance was Davidson moving from 49 to 48 without playing. That would give the A10 2 NCAA teams if Davidson does not win the A10 Tourney. The one change in the at large field was 50 Oklahoma (now 14-14) exiting the NCAA in favor of 49 UAB, which would give C-USA a second NCAA team. All of this is subject to daily change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Updated SLU ratings: NET 59, ESPN BPI 48, Pomeroy 59, Sagarin 54, Haslametrics 65, Team Rankings 60 (15.3% chance for NCAA bid), RPI 60, Massey 66. Average of the 8 is rounded off to 59. Average of those on the Team Sheet (NET, BPI, Pomeroy, Sagarin): 55. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I hate to admit it, but I’m in a depression with this team. I’m there every game cheering them on. But with multiple double digit losses against the best in the A10 and the three unbelievable non-conference losses — at home — after being up double digits in the 2nd half, I’ve lost faith they’ll get anything done the rest of the regular season or in the conf tourney. Rather than going 4-0, I think they’re more likely to go 1-3 or 2-2. They get hot briefly against middling competition then get smacked down. There’s something about the makeup of this team that’s off. They rarely step up in the big games under bright lights. They look intimidated, on their heels, usually right out of the gate. They lack killer, refuse-to-lose mentality. Like Taj says, I do not understand not being up for big games. And there’s not a single guy who is good enough to carry the team on his back in the tough sledding. C Ford usually has the Bills peaking at this point. This year it’s not feeling that way. Love for them to prove me wrong. brianstl, MusicCityBilliken, Box and Won and 1 other like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUBillsFan Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, Adman said: I hate to admit it, but I’m in a depression with this team. I’m there every game cheering them on. But with multiple double digit losses against the best in the A10 and the three unbelievable non-conference losses — at home — after being up double digits in the 2nd half, I’ve lost faith they’ll get anything done the rest of the regular season or in the conf tourney. Rather than going 4-0, I think they’re more likely to go 1-3 or 2-2. They get hot briefly against middling competition then get smacked down. There’s something about the makeup of this team that’s off. They rarely step up in the big games under bright lights. They look intimidated, on their heels, usually right out of the gate. They lack killer, refuse-to-lose mentality. Like Taj says, I do not understand not being up for big games. And there’s not a single guy who is good enough to carry the team on his back in the tough sledding. C Ford usually has the Bills peaking at this point. This year it’s not feeling that way. Love for them to prove me wrong. Dare I say that Travis Ford has spoiled us? This team is pretty clearly better than any of the 5 Billikens team from 2014-15 to 2018-19 (yes even though that team got hot during the A10 tournament). It is arguably just as good as 2019-20 or 2020-21. Depending upon how they finish out the season, you could make a case that this is the best Billiken team in 8 years, but you are "in a depression" with them. I understand the frustration of losing & in some ways I'm right there with you. There have been some incredibly frustrating losses this year, but it helps to have some perspective as well. I mean perspective compared to prior years, but also in terms of our total resume this season. We actually won what was arguably the toughest game on our schedule this year (at Boise State). Good teams lose games, good teams sometimes get blown out. That's what this team is good / not great. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 SLU needs to return to its past role of being the aggressor vs. the good A10 teams, play with higher energy than the opponent. I see this as lacking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I saw that energy, that aggressive killer instinct early in the Bona home game. SLU took a 19-10 lead on TJ’s monster slam, then Schmidt called timeout. SLU hit 2 3’s to take the 25-14 lead, then Schmidt went East Coast zone on us, a matchup, odd 1-1-3. The Billiken Offense stalled, with a seemingly interminable first half drought. But that beginning of the Home Bona game and some of the 2nd Half of the Bona Away game, and also some of the second half of the earlier Dayton Away game, along with most of the Dayton Home Victory, showed this team does have that mojo in it. A10Ref likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Short of Thatch, our "mojo players" are relatively weak. Collins is of slight build, Jimerson is a third-year freshman playing a new position in scorer, Nesbitt is a wild freshman, Okoro is relearning the game and Hargrove is wildly inconsistent. Linssen and Jones are both limited role players. Yes, the mojo is there at times, but we have a lineup of players where a term like "mojo" is also limited. Given these inconsistencies, that is why I think we are best playing up tempo and running more than not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Really surprised to see this thread so active Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 This is an interesting look from the SBUnfurled site. Yeah, when you compare SLU's NET resume with StB's NET resume you kind of wonder whey we are so much higher than they are. Must be those two extra Q3 wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 The quadrants do not impact the NET calculation. For purposes of calculating the NET you can ignore whether a game is Q3 or Q2 or Q1. Once all of the net rankings are calculated, then you can derive the quadrants (not the other way around). We are higher than SBU in the NET for the same reason that we’re higher in KenPom, T-Rank, EvanMiya, HaslamMetrics, Sagarin, BPI, etc.: we are more efficient than St Bonaventure (we outscore opponents more than they do). Bay Area Billiken, rgbilliken and Littlebill like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billikenbooster Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 The difference between this season and previous is the absence of JG. His will to win, infectious energy rubbed off on everyone on the team. mhg billiken_roy likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Bona got annihilated by Virginia Tech on a neutral floor in Charlotte 86-49, lost at home to NET 103 Northern Iowa 90-80, got waxed at Dayton 68-50, lost at NET 108 George Mason 75-66. The Unfurled few but proud would like to skip over those losses, but the NET computer factors them in, especially those pesky adjusted efficiency components that kicked in when the Bonnies lost by 37 to an otherwise relatively nondescript NET 41 Virginia Tech. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUBillsFan Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, HoosierPal said: This is an interesting look from the SBUnfurled site. Yeah, when you compare SLU's NET resume with StB's NET resume you kind of wonder whey we are so much higher than they are. Must be those two extra Q3 wins. There very likely isn't much separation between #59 and #84 or isn't as much as a 25 spot difference would make you believe The head to head games matter, but no more so than any other games on the schedule. SLU has largely throttled inferior opponents (35 pt W over Central Ark, 42 pt W over EIU, 17 pt W over Mercer, 22 pt W @ Duq, 18 pt W @ LaSalle, etc.) & the Bonnies have mostly allowed bad teams to stick around more than they should (9 pt home W over Canisius, 12 pt home W over Coppin State, 13 pt home W over Loyola MD, 4 pt OT W @ LaSalle, 8 pt win @ Duq). Both of their "best" wins are over Boise State, but SLU did it on the road while Bona did it on a neutral court. Bonnies played ZERO non-conference road games Bonnies were absolutely demolished on a neutral court by VA Tech by 37 (way worse than SLU on the road @ Davidson by 21). rgbilliken likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Don't the Bonnies understand "efficiency" up in the Woods? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 24 minutes ago, NH said: The quadrants do not impact the NET calculation. For purposes of calculating the NET you can ignore whether a game is Q3 or Q2 or Q1. Once all of the net rankings are calculated, then you can derive the quadrants (not the other way around). We are higher than SBU in the NET for the same reason that we’re higher in KenPom, T-Rank, EvanMiya, HaslamMetrics, Sagarin, BPI, etc.: we are more efficient than St Bonaventure (we outscore opponents more than they do). I agree...You can put my model in there too which also includes a NET Efficiency rating and puts us ahead of the Bonnies as well as the rest of the A10. Currently , my model show us at 47 ranking because it is playing games forward and trying to put in selection committee criteria. But the bottom line is NET efficiency is driving mine and the rest of the models. I don't like it but it doesn't matter...it is what the NCAA uses and so everyone has to fall in line or you will be left behind. I tried an experiment last night....I took The Bills schedule and added 10 pts to all the Bills wins and ran the model again ...same games ...same opponents same losses...just added 10 pts to all wins...The Bills came in with a rank of 37 and a Chance 2 Dance of 70%....You may not agree with my numbers but the same thing would happen with all these models ...a significant jump in rankings if the 10 pts were added in. I call this the Colgate effect because Colgate was one of the first schools to figure out how to game the system. They play a weak OOC schedule followed by weak conference games where they not only win but run the score up as much as possible. A couple of years ago Colgate finished 9th in the rankings. In no universe is Colgate in the same rarified air as Duke , Gonz or Kansas except in the NET universe. That is why last night's game was annoying...not because it messed up my perfect spread but it cut into our margin of victory which will affect our ranking no matter what system you use. Motto going forward is win first , then win big. NH, A10Ref and Bay Area Billiken like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
courtside Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Bracketville had three A-10 teams in its next four out category prior to last night’s games: St. Bonaventure, Dayton, VCU. (Kansas State, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Belmont, St. John’s, Virginia Tech the other teams they had ahead of SLU in order) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Call me bitter but at this point, I just don't want UD to make it at large. A10Ref and BilliesBy40 like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compton Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 With tonight's win are we basically guaranteed an NIT at-large invite? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, Compton said: With tonight's win are we basically guaranteed an NIT at-large invite? Yes. We in all likelihood were in the NIT irrespective. But’s let go for the gusto and win the A10 Tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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