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16 minutes ago, JMM28 said:

Somebody is going to remember this. What was the Majerus number for recruiting shooters? The sum of their FG%/3P%/FT% that he talked about. I can't remember it for the life of me. Was it like 180? 

Yep. 180 shooter. 50%/40%/90%

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On 4/17/2021 at 9:38 PM, BLIKNS said:

Who was it that punched a police horse?  Was if Fortson? 

Can't remember his name, but had the nick name The Helicopter, got so pissed when we beat them on Valentine's Day, thinking Troy Robertson hit free throws late

Maybe Bobby Brannon. I think he had a tramp stamp. The tattoo guy was usually set up outside his trailer park on Tues and Thurs morning

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Foster Loyer is in the portal, leaving Michigan State. Had a SLU offer at one point. Has played three seasons, should have two left. Not sure he fills a need but he's a familiar name.

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1 hour ago, AGB91 said:

Has anyone heard rumors about where Jacob’s may land?

Illinois-Chicago is the only place I’ve heard 

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Names of SLU interest in the portal, updated. Current school in parentheses, followed by next year's class status and expected remaining eligibility, including COVID bonus year.

D.J. Horne (Illinois State) is going to Arizona State and Mason Madsen is staying at Cincinnati. They have been removed from the list.

Had an offer from SLU at some point:
-John Bol Ajak (Syracuse) - Freshman, 4 Years
-Madut Akec (South Florida) - Junior, 3 Years
-Myles Baker (Central Connecticut State) - Junior, 3 Years
-Dudley Blackwell (Iowa State) - Sophomore, 4 Years
-Ben Coupet (Little Rock) - Grad Transfer, 1 Year
-Kevin Easley (TCU) - Junior, 3 Years - Hearing from GW, Clemson, Arizona State, Bowling Green, Western Michigan, Portland, UC-Santa Barbara, UIC.

-Kobe Elvis (DePaul) - Sophomore, 4 Years - Hearing from Clemson, Dayton, Drake, VCU, Georgia, Iowa State, TCU, Colorado, Cal, Boston College, Colorado State, Grand Canyon.
-Cam'Ron Fletcher (Kentucky) - Sophomore, 4 Years - Has heard from SLU, Mizzou, Florida State, Memphis, Georgetown, USC, UCLA, Loyola-Chicago, Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, San Diego State, Washington, Marquette, St. Mary's.
-Baylor Hebb (Loyola-Chicago) - Sophomore, 4 Years
-Aundre Hyatt (LSU) - Junior, 3 Years - Considering Georgia, Texas A&M, Cincinnati, Pitt, Penn State, Boston College, others.
-Jalen Johnson (Mississippi State) - Grad Transfer, 1 Year
-Martice Mitchell (Minnesota) - Sophomore, 4 Years
-Gethro Muscadin (Kansas) - Sophomore, 4 Years - Hearing from Rutgers, Penn State, New Mexico, UNLV, UTSA, Colorado State, Sam Houston State.
-Josh Nickelberry (Louisville) - Junior, 3 Years - Hearing from Indiana, Clemson, Grand Canyon, Boston College, Wichita State, Elon, Georgia State, Texas A&M, UNC-Wilmington. 
-Mickey Pearson (TCU) - Sophomore, 4 Years
-Joseph Reece (Old Dominion) - Senior, 2 Years
-Jared Ridder (Missouri State) - Senior, 2 Years
-Dallas Watson (Saint Peter's) - Senior, 2 Years

Had SLU interest at some point:
-Jeron Artest (UC-Irvine) - Junior, 3 Years
-Ralph Bissainthe (Central Michigan) - Junior, 3 Years - Hearing from Ball State, Eastern Washington, Morehead State, Montana State, FAU, Sam Houston State, Stetson, Samford, Cal State-Fullerton, Elon, Towson, and St. Peter's. Also open to returning to CMU.
-Lenell Henry (Prairie View A&M) - Grad Transfer, 1 Year - Hearing from IUPUI, Incarnate Word.
-Cooper Neese (Indiana State) - Senior, 2 Years
-Rashad Weekly-McDaniels (Central Michigan) - Sophomore, 4 Years - Hearing from JUCOs.

Others that have been contacted by SLU:
-Aaron Cook (Gonzaga) - Grad Transfer, 1 Year

Please let me know if I'm missing anyone.

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6 hours ago, JMM28 said:

Somebody is going to remember this. What was the Majerus number for recruiting shooters? The sum of their FG%/3P%/FT% that he talked about. I can't remember it for the life of me. Was it like 180? 

It was 180....RM use to say he would take a 180 player ....sight unseen.

For a comparison ...on my system which rates all D1 players and then grades them on a curve  ...an A+  player (D1) during the RM years while at SLU was 162.8.  ( 47.6 / 39.1 / 76.1 ) which explains why he would take a player sight unseen.   A 180 player would be like a AAA.  Again for comparison ....adjusting for the new 3 pt line ...an A+ player in 2021 would be 163.5  ( 47.8 / 37.7 / 78 ).    Overall in  D1 ... FG% about the same.....3P%  down and FT% up since the RM years.

Btw...The upcoming season will be the 10th anniversary of RM's best and last full season as SLU's head coach.

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9 hours ago, The Wiz said:

It was 180....RM use to say he would take a 180 player ....sight unseen.

For a comparison ...on my system which rates all D1 players and then grades them on a curve  ...an A+  player (D1) during the RM years while at SLU was 162.8.  ( 47.6 / 39.1 / 76.1 ) which explains why he would take a player sight unseen.   A 180 player would be like a AAA.  Again for comparison ....adjusting for the new 3 pt line ...an A+ player in 2021 would be 163.5  ( 47.8 / 37.7 / 78 ).    Overall in  D1 ... FG% about the same.....3P%  down and FT% up since the RM years.

Btw...The upcoming season will be the 10th anniversary of RM's best and last full season as SLU's head coach.

Do the numbers show that moving the 3point line back has made a difference?

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9 hours ago, The Wiz said:

It was 180....RM use to say he would take a 180 player ....sight unseen.

For a comparison ...on my system which rates all D1 players and then grades them on a curve  ...an A+  player (D1) during the RM years while at SLU was 162.8.  ( 47.6 / 39.1 / 76.1 ) which explains why he would take a player sight unseen.   A 180 player would be like a AAA.  Again for comparison ....adjusting for the new 3 pt line ...an A+ player in 2021 would be 163.5  ( 47.8 / 37.7 / 78 ).    Overall in  D1 ... FG% about the same.....3P%  down and FT% up since the RM years.

Btw...The upcoming season will be the 10th anniversary of RM's best and last full season as SLU's head coach.

-Wiz, any chance your well of information has the stat on if a 3pt shooter is fouled and doesn't make the shot, what is the free throw make % versus the overall ft make %? a bar conversation during conference tournament week has me wondering

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47 minutes ago, BilliesBy40 said:

This got me interested in how our players fared last season:

  1. Javonte Perkins: 170.70
  2. Gibson Jimerson: 166
  3. Terrance Hargrove: 162.80
  4. Demarius Jacobs: 161.40
  5. Fred Thatch: 156.20

 

47 minutes ago, BilliesBy40 said:

This got me interested in how our players fared last season:

  1. Javonte Perkins: 170.70
  2. Gibson Jimerson: 166
  3. Terrance Hargrove: 162.80
  4. Demarius Jacobs: 161.40
  5. Fred Thatch: 156.20

Thanks to both you and The Wiz for putting this together.  Very informative.

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2 hours ago, Cowboy said:

-Wiz, any chance your well of information has the stat on if a 3pt shooter is fouled and doesn't make the shot, what is the free throw make % versus the overall ft make %? a bar conversation during conference tournament week has me wondering

The 3 Pt foul shot is relatively rare when compared to all foul shots taken.  I don't have any data that separates it out.   Observationally,   3 P shooters tend to be better foul shooters....since 71.1 is C rated I would say 75% in general would be a good guess.

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1 minute ago, The Wiz said:

The 3 Pt foul shot is relatively rare when compared to all foul shots taken.  I don't have any data that separates it out.   Observationally,   3 P shooters tend to be better foul shooters....since 71.1 is C rated I would say 75% in general would be a good guess.

 

There's an old coaching saying that they only make all 3 FT's 33% of the time. Obviously not very statistically based but if you take Wiz's 71.1% FT shooter you end up with a 36% chance of making all 3.  

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2 hours ago, BilliesBy40 said:

This got me interested in how our players fared last season:

  1. Javonte Perkins: 170.70
  2. Gibson Jimerson: 166
  3. Terrance Hargrove: 162.80
  4. Demarius Jacobs: 161.40
  5. Fred Thatch: 156.20

Good stuff.... I would make 1 footnote. When looking at individual player stats, sample size is important.  You would not want to rate a player who has only taken and made 1 FG , one 3P  and  1 FT and comes up with a score of 300.Here is what is generally considered a qualifying sample size in D1.

100 FGM

25  3PM

50 FTM

So based on those sample sizes the only player  qualifying is Perkins ....well above the 163.5 for an  A+.   Also, a number of Bills players qualify on individual parts of the slash  without qualifying for the whole line.  For instance , Jimerson's 39.4% from the arc  gives him an A+ .

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2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

The 3 Pt foul shot is relatively rare when compared to all foul shots taken.  I don't have any data that separates it out.   Observationally,   3 P shooters tend to be better foul shooters....since 71.1 is C rated I would say 75% in general would be a good guess.

-thank you

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5 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

Do the numbers show that moving the 3point line back has made a difference?

The simple answer is yes.

Here is the long answer.....

In the chart below, we will look at how 2 and 3Pt shots have been affected by moving the arc back. I particularly want to focus on 3 P shot value.  3P shots are more valuable shots than 2P shots.  Exactly 50% more.  The questions are... when is it worth taking the 3P shot ....who is taking it ...how has the extra distance affected the 3....and most importantly for this thread,  who should we be looking for as a transfer.

Let's look at the numbers....These will be team stats from all D1 schools....note that these numbers are pretty close to individual player numbers.

First let's look at the elite teams....A+....3 seasons will be shown for all charts....The 2018-2019 season is the last season with the shorter 3P line.

A+  teams

.................2P%...........3P%......3P value ( 3P% x 1.5).......Difference (3P value-2P%)

2019.........55.7%..........39.1%............58.65............................+2.95%

2020........54.7%...........37.5..............56.25..............................+1.55

2021.........55.2..............37.7...............56.55..............................+1.35%

C teams (average)

2019..........50.3.............34.2...............51.30..............................+1.0%

2020..........49.4..............33.3..............49.95...........................+0.55

2021..........49.7................33.5..............50.25...........................+0.55

The Bills

2019............46.6.............30.4................45.6.............................-1.0%

2020............49.7..............34.2................51.3.............................+1.6%

2021............51.3...............34.8................52.2............................+0.9

A few take aways....Again the answer to your question is ...yes , moving back the line did affect shooting. These charts show how much.  Overall it cut the value of 3P shots by about half....exactly what the NCAA was trying to do. And the affect was pretty much across the board.  You will note that the elite shooters value % were about 3x the values of average shooters...before and after the change. 

EXCEPT in the bizzarro world of the Billikens....When the NCAA moved the line back our numbers got better. Because our shooting was so bad in 2019 even though the line was closer for 3s, we should have only been shooting 2s because of the negative value.  Another strange twist is our 3P% went up this year  but our 3P  value dropped because of better 2P shooting.  That all means that last year it was more valuable to take a 3 than this year despite higher 3P stats this year.

Finally, with these numbers in hand ....who should we be looking for in the transfer portal. The easy answer is take a 37.7%+   3P shooter. The correct answer though would be to take at least a 35.2% guy who has made a minimum  25  shots this past season. That would give us true A+ value based on The Bills numbers.

Bottom line.... It is still a good idea to shoot 3s as long as you are not terrible at it.  For The Bills, the minimum shooter would have to be  34.3% and ideally at least 35.2%.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Good stuff.... I would make 1 footnote. When looking at individual player stats, sample size is important.  You would not want to rate a player who has only taken and made 1 FG , one 3P  and  1 FT and comes up with a score of 300.Here is what is generally considered a qualifying sample size in D1.

100 FGM

25  3PM

50 FTM

So based on those sample sizes the only player  qualifying is Perkins ....well above the 163.5 for an  A+.   Also, a number of Bills players qualify on individual parts of the slash  without qualifying for the whole line.  For instance , Jimerson's 39.4% from the arc  gives him an A+ .

Thanks for the clarification.

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36 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

EXCEPT in the bizzarro world of the Billikens....When the NCAA moved the line back our numbers got better. Because our shooting was so bad in 2019 even though the line was closer for 3s, we should have only been shooting 2s because of the negative value.  Another strange twist is our 3P% went up this year  but our 3P  value dropped because of better 2P shooting.  That all means that last year it was more valuable to take a 3 than this year despite higher 3P stats this year.
 

This is a great comparo of reality vs reason. In a world where the only change is the arc distance to the arc, the 3 pt performance should be worse and so you demonstrated it. The Bills on the other hand had major improvements in their shooting and scoring capacity so their results were better than what logic and reason (applied to every team the same way) required. Life, sports, the market, neither are logical or reasonable, the individual details count and alter the results.

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2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

The simple answer is yes.

Here is the long answer.....

In the chart below, we will look at how 2 and 3Pt shots have been affected by moving the arc back. I particularly want to focus on 3 P shot value.  3P shots are more valuable shots than 2P shots.  Exactly 50% more.  The questions are... when is it worth taking the 3P shot ....who is taking it ...how has the extra distance affected the 3....and most importantly for this thread,  who should we be looking for as a transfer.

Let's look at the numbers....These will be team stats from all D1 schools....note that these numbers are pretty close to individual player numbers.

First let's look at the elite teams....A+....3 seasons will be shown for all charts....The 2018-2019 season is the last season with the shorter 3P line.

A+  teams

.................2P%...........3P%......3P value ( 3P% x 1.5).......Difference (3P value-2P%)

2019.........55.7%..........39.1%............58.65............................+2.95%

2020........54.7%...........37.5..............56.25..............................+1.55

2021.........55.2..............37.7...............56.55..............................+1.35%

C teams (average)

2019..........50.3.............34.2...............51.30..............................+1.0%

2020..........49.4..............33.3..............49.95...........................+0.55

2021..........49.7................33.5..............50.25...........................+0.55

The Bills

2019............46.6.............30.4................45.6.............................-1.0%

2020............49.7..............34.2................51.3.............................+1.6%

2021............51.3...............34.8................52.2............................+0.9

A few take aways....Again the answer to your question is ...yes , moving back the line did affect shooting. These charts show how much.  Overall it cut the value of 3P shots by about half....exactly what the NCAA was trying to do. And the affect was pretty much across the board.  You will note that the elite shooters value % were about 3x the values of average shooters...before and after the change. 

EXCEPT in the bizzarro world of the Billikens....When the NCAA moved the line back our numbers got better. Because our shooting was so bad in 2019 even though the line was closer for 3s, we should have only been shooting 2s because of the negative value.  Another strange twist is our 3P% went up this year  but our 3P  value dropped because of better 2P shooting.  That all means that last year it was more valuable to take a 3 than this year despite higher 3P stats this year.

Finally, with these numbers in hand ....who should we be looking for in the transfer portal. The easy answer is take a 37.7%+   3P shooter. The correct answer though would be to take at least a 35.2% guy who has made a minimum  25  shots this past season. That would give us true A+ value based on The Bills numbers.

Bottom line.... It is still a good idea to shoot 3s as long as you are not terrible at it.  For The Bills, the minimum shooter would have to be  34.3% and ideally at least 35.2%.

 

 

 

Thanks for the analysis.  The difference is fairly significant when you spread that out over all NCAA games.

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Dylan Disu entered the transfer portal. Led the SEC in rebounding, averaged 15 & 9 before injury, was expected to have a big season for Vandy. He's from suburban Austin, TX so some eyes are on Texas and Chris Beard.

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4 hours ago, bauman said:

Didn't we have a 180+ player sitting on our bench most minutes last year?  Hopefully he gets some time this year to show what he can do.  He is pretty much the forgotten Billiken in most discussions of 21-22.

can u remember his name?

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4 hours ago, bauman said:

Didn't we have a 180+ player sitting on our bench most minutes last year?  Hopefully he gets some time this year to show what he can do.  He is pretty much the forgotten Billiken in most discussions of 21-22.

For good reason.  Perkins, Okoro and Linssen will get the vast majority of the minutes in the frontcourt. Lorentsson will have to beat out either Hargrove or Bell just to break into the rotation. 

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5 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

For good reason.  Perkins, Okoro and Linssen will get the vast majority of the minutes in the frontcourt. Lorentsson will have to beat out either Hargrove or Bell just to break into the rotation. 

I don't think we will see much of Hargrove playing post at 6,4 215.  He is best at guard. He has the ability to rebound and block shots, but not bodying up against bigger players. You can sometimes get by with an undersized 4, if he is really good with positioning himself and anticipates his opponents moves. That's not Hargrove.

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