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When you see everything as Trump vs. the world, you assume that anything that is bad for Trump is good for those who didn't vote for him and don't support him. Big Bill Fan clearly thinks this way and

Well courtside, I just hope and pray you get it, progress all the way into ventilation, and gracefully become one more death statistic among the 80+% who don't make it out of ventilation. This will al

I made an exception to read your post above after placing you in the ignore list. You finally admit that you are not capable of producing anything close to a medically valid argument. You admit t

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Just now, Old guy said:

Where is the link, please?

It automatically embedded instead of linking. Original post has been fixed. 

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17 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Lordy! you are full of yourself are you. Tell me please, not yet MD, what branch of medicine are you going into? Of course with the graduation coming soon, you are already  accepted to  some kind of residency program, correct? What is your choice of medical branches or specialties if you prefer?

It must come with the profession. 😇😇

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I think this thread should move beyond the debate of whether we are in a mess, and focus on the outcome. I was wondering if anyone has thoughts on what is the best path after the coming peak?

My personal theory would be to attack this virus head-on. For example, since we know the rate of hospitalization and ICU stays are lower for people at younger ages, then we could plan around attempting to inoculate younger populations. For example, the POTUS could declare this a war, and through conscription call up everyone from ages 18-40, and through a staged roll-out from 6/1/20 until 10/31/20, people could get war-time pay to stay at a military base for 5 weeks while they recover. Assuming we could limit the active participants to the estimated number of ventilators and have make-shift hospital wards, this might be a path which provides for the least loss of life as we shoot towards herd immunity. There are lot of other details to consider, but this is a basic explanation. I have not heard of this being considered by the government, and was wondering if this is something that is just impossible to achieve and why?

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27 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Now, rgbilliken you are a chemist and a pharmaceutical researcher. Are you also an interpreter of the FDA thinking and intention rationales, or do you have a statement from the FDA saying what you just said?

Geez, don’t understand all the snark towards @rgbilliken

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9 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said:

I think this thread should move beyond the debate of whether we are in a mess, and focus on the outcome. I was wondering if anyone has thoughts on what is the best path after the coming peak?

My personal theory would be to attack this virus head-on. For example, since we know the rate of hospitalization and ICU stays are lower for people at younger ages, then we could plan around attempting to inoculate younger populations. For example, the POTUS could declare this a war, and through conscription call up everyone from ages 18-40, and through a staged roll-out from 6/1/20 until 10/31/20, people could get war-time pay to stay at a military base for 5 weeks while they recover. Assuming we could limit the active participants to the estimated number of ventilators and have make-shift hospital wards, this might be a path which provides for the least loss of life as we shoot towards herd immunity. There are lot of other details to consider, but this is a basic explanation. I have not heard of this being considered by the government, and was wondering if this is something that is just impossible to achieve and why?

unconstitutional, congress has power to declare war not potus. there would be major pushback from the populace and likely draft riots.just my opinion

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42 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Now, rgbilliken you are a chemist and a pharmaceutical researcher. Are you also an interpreter of the FDA thinking and intention rationales, or do you have a statement from the FDA saying what you just said?

 

45 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Lordy! you are full of yourself are you. Tell me please, not yet MD, what branch of medicine are you going into? Of course with the graduation coming soon, you are already  accepted to  some kind of residency program, correct? What is your choice of medical branches or specialties if you prefer?

Do you get off on being a jerk to everyone? 

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Looks like we soon will lose both aircraft carriers in the Pacific fleet. The Roosevelt is in Guam at the pier, and the Reagan is about to follow suit. The Roosevelt has 40 confirmed positive, and 400 unconfirmed positive.

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2020/03/31/theodore-roosevelt-captain-makes-urgent-plea-for-individual-quarantine-sites-as-covid-19-cases-multiply/

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23 hours ago, brianstl said:

According to this, Missouri's health system should avoid being overwhelmed.  At the virus's peak in MO it predicts we will have an ICU bed surplus of 250 beds.  The bad news is we are still 41 days away from hitting the peak in Missouri.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Missouri's peak day as now been moved back to May 18.  47 days away.

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39 minutes ago, dennis_w said:

unconstitutional, congress has power to declare war not potus. there would be major pushback from the populace and likely draft riots.just my opinion

It is actually unclear whether POTUS can call a draft without congressional approval. Sounds like something right up Trumps alley. He definitely has the ability to react in times of war. I have a feeling that if he can show that a draft is necessary to fight the infection, then the decision to hold a draft would be supported by the court system. Also, just think about how he can spin this if it gets denied in Congress, he would finally have an excuse that it was the democrats who were at fault for the virus continuing for another year.

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4 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said:

It is actually unclear whether POTUS can call a draft without congressional approval. Sounds like something right up Trumps alley. He definitely has the ability to react in times of war. I have a feeling that if he can show that a draft is necessary to fight the infection, then the decision to hold a draft would be supported by the court system. Also, just think about how he can spin this if it gets denied in Congress, he would finally have an excuse that it was the democrats who were at fault for the virus continuing for another year.

https://www.sss.gov/about/return-to-draft/#s1

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37 minutes ago, Old guy said:

You are a lawyer Moytoy, you will understand the problem she has placed herself into.

I would sincerely love to hear what this is. 
I have not claimed to be an expert in anything I am not an expert in, have not been rude, have not resorted to personal attacks, have not said anything political, and have not questioned your or anyone else’s credentials. The most I have said is summed up by “interesting but incomplete results; hope there is more to it.” A couple of weeks ago I shared my experience having been admitted to a hospital in these uncertain times and you jumped down my throat at that time, too, and told me not to complain because I made it out alive. (I was not complaining, just relaying a story exactly as it happened—if you read anything further into it, well, I guess that’s on me for not communicating my point effectively) Your reactions to my posts certainly seem disproportionate and I’m curious to know why that is. 

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1 hour ago, Spoon-Balls said:

Earning my M.D. in 1.5 months. I obviously don't claim to be any sort of expert at this point as I have a long road still ahead of me. I can only synthesize what I have read and learned about the coronavirus and the potential treatments that may be available in the near or longterm future. 

Yes, I do "realize" all of the things you posit, as they're all common sense principles. That being said, I'm not the only one skeptical of Dr. Raoult, his methods, or him as a researcher in general. There's a reason this guy is getting propped up by conspiracy theorists all over the web.  Everything in the study made sense to me, especially with regards as to why it is a terrible study.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/29/more-on-cloroquine-azithromycin-and-on-dr-raoult

 

You mean we might want to be skeptical of a guy who looks like a character from Tiger King?  And yea, after reading that post, there are PLENTY of reasons to question the study. 

 

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50 minutes ago, Old guy said:

You are a lawyer Moytoy, you will understand the problem she has placed herself into.

No, I don't understand. 

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6 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

You mean we might want to be skeptical of a guy who looks like a character from Tiger King?  And yea, after reading that post, there are PLENTY of reasons to question the study. 

 

000_1q98g1_5e83660c7c211_0.jpg

Bears a striking resemblance to another doctor that was in Trump's orbit...

 

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1 hour ago, rgbilliken said:

It automatically embedded instead of linking. Original post has been fixed. 

Just blocking him at this point. 

1 hour ago, RiseAndGrind said:

It must come with the profession. 😇😇

The projecting truly is astounding. 

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2 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

well then we are in agreement since president trump is the greatest president since Lincoln.

MAGA 2020

Lol.  

1.) Kyle Cassity has NBA potential

1A.) Trump is the greatest president since Lincoln

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On 3/28/2020 at 3:33 PM, Old guy said:

@Basketbill. Maybe I was not specific enough, but a series of assumptions as those made in the model for the paper referred to above are rarely if ever met in reality. Minor variations  between assumed parameters and what is found in reality can cascade and cause major cumulative errors overall. Their use of an IFR of 0.9%, particularly when found to result in a wide underestimation of the number of deaths calculated on the basis of unsuccessful therapy and requiring use of "undocumented deaths" is a major problem with this article.

I  understand that the assumptions are a guess, and it is reasonable to understand that in this type of rapidly changing environment the assumptions are commonly inaccurate.  However, it seems to be a good  a estimation of “what the hell do we need to prepare for” in a worst case scenario.  I am not sure what you mean by “undocumented deaths”.   Relying on the Chinese data, is problematic as there data does not appear believable, unless their ability for strict stay at home orders (which apparently was policed with electronic monitoring) is much better than our stay at home orders with loopholes for many...

 

The updated study is just as grim.  ICU availability unfortunately is not the best and timeliest trigger toggling on an off social restrictions.   Below is the second Paper from NF., and their estimation data for every country with mitigation strategies.   Thanks god for computers.

 

Imperial-College-COVID19-Global-Impact-26-03-2020.pdf Imperial-College-COVID19-Global-unmitigated-mitigated-suppression-scenarios.numbers

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57 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

You mean we might want to be skeptical of a guy who looks like a character from Tiger King?  And yea, after reading that post, there are PLENTY of reasons to question the study. 

 

000_1q98g1_5e83660c7c211_0.jpg

You are seriously judging someone’s credibility and intelligence by his physical appearance??? Pretty disgusting practice I would say... is this another example of a tolerant, caring liberal?

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The White House has mainly been using the death model from the University of Washington in meetings and when giving briefings.

It can and does change daily to adapt to circumstances. But as of yesterday they project approx. 82,000 U S. deaths by August if and only if all 50 states shut down by next week and stay at home policies extend until June 1st. 

The hopeful assumption is that worst cases have access to treatment and supplies (which has been and is projected to be a concern) That is why it is a death model and not a case model. .....How different would the models look if readiness and response was better the first two months.

 

 

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