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Quality Is Job 1

Welcome to the Billikens, Tay Weaver!

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There will be plenty of minutes for the guards if we don’t miraculously land an immediately eligible big. We will be playing a lot of small ball.

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Weaver has an unusual slash line.

First of all, he likes to shoot 3s....I mean , he likes to shoot 3s.  He was 74th ITN in 3P FGA... He was 97th  ITN in 3P FGM...His 35.9%  3P%...Meh...coming in at a C among qualifying 3 pt shooters (ie... made 25 or more shots )... 85% of all shots he took were 3s....and most of the rest of the remaining 15% were were either on or just inside the arc.

Here is what his slash looks like.....

NA / S3 / C / S3

NA = Not applicable ...S3 = small sample size.

So there you have it ... a 3 pt shooter.

My concern is ....how will he do with the new arc..

A player like Jimerson  who is an A+ shooter from everywhere should be able to adjust. ...although it will be a bigger adjustment,  distance wise,  than Weaver will have to make.

Should be an interesting year with the NCAA trying to punish 3 Pt shooters  in a season where the Bills have loaded up with with long distance guys.

Will the Bills be able to adjust?  Not just Weaver and Jimerson ... we will have a few others launching bombs from beyond the arc.   If they can make a few (shoot around 37%)...there could be some Dancin'.......tall order from a team that shot F last year.....but it is possible....Stay tuned

 

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9 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Weaver has an unusual slash line.

First of all, he likes to shoot 3s....I mean , he likes to shoot 3s.  He was 74th ITN in 3P FGA... He was 97th  ITN in 3P FGM...His 35.9%  3P%...Meh...coming in at a C among qualifying 3 pt shooters (ie... made 25 or more shots )... 85% of all shots he took were 3s....and most of the rest of the remaining 15% were were either on or just inside the arc.

Here is what his slash looks like.....

NA / S3 / C / S3

NA = Not applicable ...S3 = small sample size.

So there you have it ... a 3 pt shooter.

My concern is ....how will he do with the new arc..

A player like Jimerson  who is an A+ shooter from everywhere should be able to adjust. ...although it will be a bigger adjustment,  distance wise,  than Weaver will have to make.

Should be an interesting year with the NCAA trying to punish 3 Pt shooters  in a season where the Bills have loaded up with with long distance guys.

Will the Bills be able to adjust?  Not just Weaver and Jimerson ... we will have a few others launching bombs from beyond the arc.   If they can make a few (shoot around 37%)...there could be some Dancin'.......tall order from a team that shot F last year.....but it is possible....Stay tuned

 

Good hearing from you Wiz thanks for the numbers.  We look forward to seeing you when the season begins.

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13 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Should be an interesting year with the NCAA trying to punish 3 Pt shooters  in a season where the Bills have loaded up with with long distance guys

Loaded up?  I don't agree that the Billikens have "loaded up" with perimeter shooters.

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6 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

Loaded up?  I don't agree that the Billikens have "loaded up" with perimeter shooters.

Same thing caught my eye and I agree with you. 

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By Billiken standards, getting three guys who score primarily from jump shots -- Perkins, Jimerson and Weaver -- is loading up on perimeter shooters.

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14 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Weaver has an unusual slash line.

First of all, he likes to shoot 3s....I mean , he likes to shoot 3s.  He was 74th ITN in 3P FGA... He was 97th  ITN in 3P FGM...His 35.9%  3P%...Meh...coming in at a C among qualifying 3 pt shooters (ie... made 25 or more shots )... 85% of all shots he took were 3s....and most of the rest of the remaining 15% were were either on or just inside the arc.

Here is what his slash looks like.....

NA / S3 / C / S3

NA = Not applicable ...S3 = small sample size.

So there you have it ... a 3 pt shooter.

My concern is ....how will he do with the new arc..

A player like Jimerson  who is an A+ shooter from everywhere should be able to adjust. ...although it will be a bigger adjustment,  distance wise,  than Weaver will have to make.

Should be an interesting year with the NCAA trying to punish 3 Pt shooters  in a season where the Bills have loaded up with with long distance guys.

Will the Bills be able to adjust?  Not just Weaver and Jimerson ... we will have a few others launching bombs from beyond the arc.   If they can make a few (shoot around 37%)...there could be some Dancin'.......tall order from a team that shot F last year.....but it is possible....Stay tuned

 

Just from watching the highlights (I know), it seemed like most of his 3PAs came from a few feet behind the line.

 

Now, the question is, did he have to do that to get extra separation from defenders because of his short stature? And then, how do defenses compensate for the deeper line?

 

If defenses stay more or less the same, or even help off of shooters more, his %age from deep might not drop that much.

 

I'm happy we're adding Weaver at this stage, as he seems like a guy you are happy to have around regardless of how much he moves the needle. I think he's a solid backup guard, but if anyone is hoping for the second coming of Isabell you'll probably be disappointed. That said, I'd love to be wrong!

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Just like drinking. we are lightweight in 3PT shooters so having 2 is "loaded" comparatively like 2 drinks for a 15 year old likely to be loaded. 2 drinks for Otis barely registers.

 Happy holiday fellow morons.

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8 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

By Billiken standards, getting three guys who score primarily from jump shots -- Perkins, Jimerson and Weaver -- is loading up on perimeter shooters.

True, we are "loaded up" meaning we have a lot more than we did before.

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16 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

By Billiken standards, getting three guys who score primarily from jump shots -- Perkins, Jimerson and Weaver -- is loading up on perimeter shooters.

 By anyone’s standards. Yes, 3  outside shooters in 1 year is loading up. 

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49 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

 By anyone’s standards. Yes, 3  outside shooters in 1 year is loading up. 

In addition, I would count Goodwin and Wiley as 3 pt shooters . By my standards in order to qualify as a 3 Pt shooter you need to have at least 25   three pt shots made/season.  The Bills have another potential in Thatch ...if he gets a few more shots and shoots better than last year...2018-19 season...18 shots made and 26.9%.

So 5 or 6 perimeter shooters qualifies as "loaded up" especially by Bills standards.

The real question is can we improve on the dismal 30.4%  three pt shooting(17th worst ITN) and by  how much?  I think the answer to the 1st part is yes we can improve even with the new arc distance because we will have better and more experienced shooters.  The second part ...by how much... is a little more cloudy. Had the 3pt line  remained the same ...my answer would have been...improved by  a lot....but the extra distance may cool things a bit.  We will adjust (that is what good shooters do). As I mentioned above , if we can improve 6 or 7 % then good things will be happening for the Bills.  But even if it's less than that,  the extra 3 pt shooting along with the greater distance should open things up more for the Bills underneath which in turn should make us a better team.

Should be an interesting year.

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On 7/3/2019 at 11:47 AM, slu72 said:

He won't beat out Yuri unless Yuri can't play a lick of D. But he'll be a good off the bench for spot minutes. And we're overlooking Jacobs too. I just hope he stays healthy, so we have depth that we didn't have last year. 

72

Not my prediction in that I have seen very little of Yuri but according to 2 of our more respected posters, BRoy and 3 Star who HAVE seen Yuri play (and play a lot), Yuri's outside shot is not yet there, Yuri will have an adjustment to the high level D1 game, in general like most guys, and in particular, due to his size and speed.  Neither had been predicting Yuri to be our starting PG.  In fact, 3 Star mentioned that it may not be until his JR year when Goodwin is gone that Yuri may be our starting PG.   

Seems to me, having a veteran, fellow 5'10" guard will only help Yuri long-term.  And also help break the VCU press and UD's up tempo 

Also seems to me having a proven 3 point shooter (albeit a shorter guy who also will need to adjust to the size of the A10 guards/wings) will only help and make the adjustment of Jamison and Perkins that much easier who, just mentally alone, will not feel the weight of our need for perimeter shooting.

A10.  Go ahead and guard Jamison on the perimeter and allow open looks by Tay.   Or cover both and allow Goodwin and French space to work. Cover inside and outside leave Perkins, Thatch and Hargrove wide open and let's see what they can do.

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30 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

In addition, I would count Goodwin and Wiley as 3 pt shooters . By my standards in order to qualify as a 3 Pt shooter you need to have at least 25   three pt shots made/season.  The Bills have another potential in Thatch ...if he gets a few more shots and shoots better than last year...2018-19 season...18 shots made and 26.9%.

So 5 or 6 perimeter shooters qualifies as "loaded up" especially by Bills standards.

The real question is can we improve on the dismal 30.4%  three pt shooting(17th worst ITN) and by  how much?  I think the answer to the 1st part is yes we can improve even with the new arc distance because we will have better and more experienced shooters.  The second part ...by how much... is a little more cloudy. Had the 3pt line  remained the same ...my answer would have been...improved by  a lot....but the extra distance may cool things a bit.  We will adjust (that is what good shooters do). As I mentioned above , if we can improve 6 or 7 % then good things will be happening for the Bills.  But even if it's less than that,  the extra 3 pt shooting along with the greater distance should open things up more for the Bills underneath which in turn should make us a better team.

Should be an interesting year.

Hello Wiz, I know this cannot be done with any precision from a mathematical or statistical point of view but the increased distance will affect all D1 teams, some will be affected more some less. This is, as of the beginning of the season when no one is really adapted to the increased distance.

The real question therefore is not how our numbers will look compared to our own last season's numbers, the real question is how our numbers will be compared to other D1 teams. Can we improve our 3pt shooting results vs all other D1 teams? I think it is possible that we will go up in relationship to how other teams do (again at the beginning of the season) and may maintain the early difference compared to other D1 teams as the season progresses and the players adjust. Again, I think it is possible, not certain.

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34 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

72

Not my prediction in that I have seen very little of Yuri but according to 2 of our more respected posters, BRoy and 3 Star who HAVE seen Yuri play (and play a lot), Yuri's outside shot is not yet there, Yuri will have an adjustment to the high level D1 game, in general like most guys, and in particular, due to his size and speed.  Neither had been predicting Yuri to be our starting PG.  In fact, 3 Star mentioned that it may not be until his JR year when Goodwin is gone that Yuri may be our starting PG.   

Seems to me, having a veteran, fellow 5'10" guard will only help Yuri long-term.  And also help break the VCU press and UD's up tempo 

Also seems to me having a proven 3 point shooter (albeit a shorter guy who also will need to adjust to the size of the A10 guards/wings) will only help and make the adjustment of Jamison and Perkins that much easier who, just mentally alone, will not feel the weight of our need for perimeter shooting.

A10.  Go ahead and guard Jamison on the perimeter and allow open looks by Tay.   Or cover both and allow Goodwin and French space to work. Cover inside and outside leave Perkins, Thatch and Hargrove wide open and let's see what they can do.

Who is this Jamison, you write about?  Is he a new grad transfer?

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Shooters will adapt to the new distance:

"When the line was moved before the 2008-09 season, the distance went from 19 feet, 9 inches to 20 feet, 9 inches. The percentage of 3-point shots made during that season compared with the previous season declined from 35.2% to 34.4%. The percentage of made 3-point field goals steadily increased back to 35.2% in Division I by the 2017-18 season." http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/news/men-s-basketball-3-point-line-extended-international-distance

When distance changes by small amounts, the decisive factor is not the exact distance but the fact that 3 pt shots should be taken only when likelihood of making it is at least 2/3 of likelihood of making a 2 pt shot. 3 pt shooters must make at least 34% of 3 pt shots to achieve the equivalent of 51% shooting from 2 pt range. While no one is consciously calculating this during game, this is the subconscious logic driving decision whether to take the shot.

If team makes less than 34% of its 3 pt attempts, the opponent does not need to guard 3 pt shooters as closely, so teams shooting low 3 pt percentage are probably even worse shooters than the percentages indicate, as they likely have more open shots, and they still miss them.

Teams that shoot 34% or higher from 3pt range force opponents to extend defense, resulting in better shots from 2 pt range as well. In 2018-19, the 211 Div I teams that averaged 34% or higher 3 pt shooting shot 51.36% from 2 pt range. The 142 teams that averaged less than 34% from 3 pt range shot only 49.35% from 2 pt range.

Bottom line, as others have commented, the main result of improving 3 pt shooting for Billikens will be to open up the floor for French, Goodwin and others closer to the basket. Billikens made the NCAA tournament last season despite ranking 286th in points per possession - the lowest rating among teams in the tournament.  If Billikens can improve even to average 3pt shooting, they can contend for A10 title this year.

 

 

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one thing good about the change imo we won't have to worry about players jacking it up from NBA distance for selfish reasons to impress scouts.

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3 hours ago, bauman said:

Who is this Jamison, you write about?  Is he a new grad transfer?

It’s Antawn Jamison, NCAA just ruled he has another year of eligibility. 35% career from 3, now we’re loaded for long distance.

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23 hours ago, Old guy said:

Hello Wiz, I know this cannot be done with any precision from a mathematical or statistical point of view but the increased distance will affect all D1 teams, some will be affected more some less. This is, as of the beginning of the season when no one is really adapted to the increased distance.

The real question therefore is not how our numbers will look compared to our own last season's numbers, the real question is how our numbers will be compared to other D1 teams. Can we improve our 3pt shooting results vs all other D1 teams? I think it is possible that we will go up in relationship to how other teams do (again at the beginning of the season) and may maintain the early difference compared to other D1 teams as the season progresses and the players adjust. Again, I think it is possible, not certain.

I always grade on the curve. So if everyone's numbers are bad...  grades will stay the same.  I am actually expecting our grade to go up....after you are rated F-....the only way to go is up. 

The question , I was alluding to in the above posts about the affect it would have on the Bills was the issue of the NCAA tamping down the 3pt shot...ie to make it a lesser part of the game by moving the distance out. This will have an an effect in the short run . In the last distance lengthening, team 3 pt shooting went down....then gradually  came back.  As of last few years there was no difference between the before and after distance change....hence the need to crackdown again by the NCAA.

The point  I was making above ..."Loading up"...was that I thought the Bills would take more 3 pt shots than last year.. Now with the change, it will be interesting to see if that happens.  If we can't adjust...ie remain in the F category... then we may change strategies.  

As for the adjustment period....last year in the post season NIT experiment....teams started weak in 3 pt shooting ...numbers were noticeably down....but by the end of the tournament things had improved considerably. There were many hypothesizes about why....and even though the 3 pt stats were down for the whole tourney,  the end result is things were much more normal near the end.  

Bottom line....we have better and more experienced shooters...I think our grade and our percentage will go up and our 3 pt shooting will be a positive for this year.   

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As long as many of you are weighing in on how we will do from 3 pt. range this year vs. last year, here is my completely unscientific analysis which leads me to feel like we will do much better.  I am not going back to %s last year but rather going with my gut reaction when one of our players put it up from outside the arc, grouping players in 4 categories;

Confident when they shot:     None

OK when they shot:     Bess, Isabell, Wiley

I'd rather they not:   Thatch

Please no:   Goodwin

Incompletes:   Hankton; Jacobs  

All the rest

 

This upcoming year I'm hoping we can upgrade as follows:

Confident when they shoot:   Jimerson, Perkins, Weaver  in that order

OK when they shoot:   Thatch, Hankton, Yuri.  Fred just needs to work on consistency.  Some games he was +, others not so good.

I'd rather they not:   Jacobs -a big ???;  Goodwin;  Hargrove

Please no and Incomplete;    All the rest

 

How much better will we be?  I think about 2-3% based on how many Jimerson., especially, takes  and hoping that Perkins and Weaver best Bess, Isabell and Wiley by a couple of percentage points.

I realize that this analysis is pretty technical, but I am sure that Old Guy will understand and comment that the above, might happen OR maybe not.

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Goodwin is and will be a better 3 pt shooter than yuri.

Yuri like goidwin has values as a player FAR beyond outside shooting.

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9 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

Goodwin is and will be a better 3 pt shooter than yuri.

Yuri like goidwin has values as a player FAR beyond outside shooting.

Roy,

Basically, I would be fine if neither of them exceed one attempt per game.  We have better 3 pt options. 

Goodwin brings so much to the table, rebounding, hustle, leadership, doubles/doubles and defense that I want him doing all those things but NOT taking 3 pointers.  As with JG, Yuri has plenty to offer and learn this year so, again, I think we have much better options from 3 pt.  I am hoping that Yuri is able to develop a better than average 3 pt game as he progresses at SLU the next few years, but I am not expecting it this upcoming year.

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