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The Wiz

St. B over the Bills by 2

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And it comes down to 1 game. ...for the double bye....Spread variable is 1-3 pts in favor of SB

St. Bon is a mirror of us....It will be like playing ourselves....Both teams overall are rated at B-...both teams are trending at B....both teams have bad offenses ( though you will see improvement by the Bills in the report card below)...both teams have good defenses.

Lets see what the  report card looks like for this game....

...............................SLU..............................SB................................................SLU.................................SB

..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................D-.................................F.....................................................A..................................A

FG%.........................D-................................D+....................................................B+...............................A-

3P%..........................F..................................F+....................................................A-................................B-

FT%...........................F-..2nd worst ITN.......B.........................................................................................

Reb............................A+...18th ITN..............D+....................................................B...................................B

Changes from our last game.......UP......PPG....FG% ...3P% ...Total Rebs.........DOWN.....Def FG%...Def 3P%

Other grades....SLU...Offensive Reb....A+ (5th ITN).......Also for the last game...#1 ITN and #3 in the last 3 games

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...35th

Rebs....French.......69th 

Blks.....French.........66th

FG%....Osunniyi......84th (56.6%)

Blks....Osunniyi.......7th

Injuries....None for St. B....Welmer still listed as out for the season

While the  offense is still dismal , we have been improving and are finally out of the F range in a couple of categories,  for the 1st time in a long time. Any improvement is a good thing  Plus we were able to win with an F offense ...we can only be better moving into the Ds......as for FTs ...think volume.   Except for FTs  , we match up pretty well on offense.....On defense, again it is pretty much a match ...with a an edge to the BIlls on 3P defense.   St. B still has a good 3P defense , we are just better.

WWN2D2W....Stop  Stockyard and Lofton......hold them to 12 and 11 pts...everyone else to single digits.....know that Osunniyi will be blocking shots and adjust accordingly.... Win the TO battle....again they have similar numbers to us...we need to protect the ball...stay around 12 TOs...Slash...42/31/ 60...it will be a close game...we need to make all parts of the slash....

WCGW...We play careless..TOs run up....We miss the slash....we let Osunniyi block a bunch of shots...

Bottom line...A close game...The reason St. B has the edge is only because of home field advantage....We played a much tougher Seton Hall away and beat them....We can do it again against SB. Part of the home field advantage will slip away because of the importance of the game...both teams will be up for the game.   I am hoping that the drubbing that SB took from Dav will carry over to our game. ..similar to GM after we beat them in their must win game....they were blown out in the next game.  This game will be decided by a TO...a missed layup...a bad call.  We need to make the easy bunnies and layups. We need to make crisp passes and protect the ball.  The game will go to the team that wants it the most. It will all be about focus.....Focus and win.

Go Bills

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I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say this is the biggest game of Ford’s SLU tenure so far. I think we are hitting our stride at the perfect time, like Davidson last year. I like our chances. ROLL BILLS

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38 minutes ago, Box and Won said:

Did somebody say Bonnies???!!!???

 

Ugh gets me every time

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Personnel:  before I go there, let's make note of the specialness of this one ...... the winner likely gets the #4 seed.  It is Senior Day in the Great White North.  Courtney Stockard is from St. Louis and is playing Saint Louis on Senior Day.  Stockard is special ---- injuries have made him a six-year player at the Bunnies.  We don't traditionally do well in Olean.  In other words, lots of pro-Bunnie stuff coming straight off the bus.

Okay, the lineup.  The Bunnies play with the same lineup mostly.  The starters at guard are two freshmen, Kyle Lofton and Dom Welch.  Forwards are Stockard and Griffin.  Center is Ossunniyi.  The bench is mostly weak except for maybe Jalen Poyser, a transfer from UNLV.  Poyser has not live dup to much of the hype this year.  Most thought he was a lock to start with his UNLV pedigree.  He is averaging nearly 10 but sniffing that average has been rare in the eight games back from a concussion.  One game 20 (Fordham); another 12 (VCU blowout).  In his last three, he's averaging 3 ppg.  No need to let him find himself now.  The other guard off the bench is  sophomore Nelson Kaputo.  Very much like Poyser; can go off but please not now.

The starters are decent as freshmen.  Lofton, who some were pushing for newcomer of the year, was the starting point guard on last year's mythical prep school national champions.  Second leading scorer, leading assist man, I watched him destroy Mason with 32 back in mid-February.  As Lofton goes, so goes the Bunnies.  Dom Welch was supposed to be redshirted after he broke a foot back in November but they had to activate him because of a depleted roster when the foot healed at the turn of the new year.  He was a big shot scorer in high school; might have been western NY's all-tiem leader when he ended.  He;s steady enough but his high for the eyar was against Davidson last night going for 14.

Osun Osunniyi is purely defense and garbage shots.  If I believe Obi Toppin is a one-trick-pony dunker, then Ossunniyi is a one-trick-pony-shot blocker.  But there is no denying his 7'2" or whatever wing span.  Foreman and French will have to go strong and bring the dunks.  Isabell goes into the middle without a plan and it could get ugly.  Osunniyi will be planted in the lane.  The only other big on the roster doing mush is sophomore Amadi Ipkeze.  Between them., they average about a combined 10 ppg. 

To me, the Bunnies real strength lies in their experience forwards of Stockard and Griffin.  Stockard is the leading scorer and the more polished of the two but Griffin missed ten of the first 11 games with injury.  I'd say he's all back right now.  The matchups seem easy ..... Isabell on Lofton, Goodwin on Welch, Bess on Stockard, French on Griffin and Foreman on Ossunniyi.  And I actually like our bench over theirs.  What does that say?  Ossunniyi has fouled out of a few games.  Deleting him from the middle would be huge. 

Can't wait.  A win will be tough.

 

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I don't believe in "we are due" factors, but as earlier stated we are 0-8 in our last eight, and 2-8 in last ten against St. Bonaventure.  We have lost our last three up at Olean.  Our last W at Olean was 1/26/13.  Evans lead the 67-57 victory with 18, including 1 of his 5 three pointers that season.

The Bonnies are a good team, but we all know that.  They were on a run winning 6 in a row before the major hiccup last night.  They go 10 deep with a good bench, which will present us a problem.  They had early season injuries which forced them to play their freshmen.  That is paying off now.  

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Question for Wiz.  My gut tells me that home teams do better on senior night than other home games.  Do you know if that is true?

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4 minutes ago, Aquinas said:

Question for Wiz.  My gut tells me that home teams do better on senior night than other home games.  Do you know if that is true?

I'm sure Wiz will have a better response. and this is a little anecdotal, but look at Mason / VCU. It can go both ways. 

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3 hours ago, Aquinas said:

Question for Wiz.  My gut tells me that home teams do better on senior night than other home games.  Do you know if that is true?

Unfortunately , I have not found any studies that single out Senior night as opposed to regular home games. 

In order to make the assumption that Senior night is more valuable to the home team than other home games you have to assume that the crowd and all the hoopla that goes with Senior night affects the game. While we all like to believe we make a difference at home games the studies show that crowd noise and and size do not affect the outcome of games. It is usually physical factors...such as altitude , travel times and time zones that create home field advantages...also things like sight lines or arena size  can also make a difference.  The number one home advantage goes to  Denver University....with a 7.03 advantage...call it a mile high advantage. The loudest and most intense basketball game I have ever been to was at New Mex St during NCAA finals.....It was like sitting on an airport runway...literally.  Their 118 decibel level (same as a chainsaw) is the number one nosiest arena in the country. Perhaps , that physical intensity is loud enough to affect the game.  But again , the experts say it is the mile high atmosphere of NMSU and the long travel distances  that affect games.

From my own experience charting Bills games (S3)....I haven't noticed any significant difference.  Last night was a good example. ...I had us to win by 7...the variable spread was as high as 8 pts.  We won by 10....Was Senior night worth 2 pts....Probably not... I would vote for the extra 24 FT shots we took

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4 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Unfortunately , I have not found any studies that single out Senior night as opposed to regular home games. 

In order to make the assumption that Senior night is more valuable to the home team than other home games you have to assume that the crowd and all the hoopla that goes with Senior night affects the game. While we all like to believe we make a difference at home games the studies show that crowd noise and and size do not affect the outcome of games. It is usually physical factors...such as altitude , travel times and time zones that create home field advantages...also things like sight lines or arena size  can also make a difference.  The number one home advantage goes to  Denver University....with a 7.03 advantage...call it a mile high advantage. The loudest and most intense basketball game I have ever been to was at New Mex St during NCAA finals.....It was like sitting on an airport runway...literally.  Their 118 decibel level (same as a chainsaw) is the number one nosiest arena in the country. Perhaps , that physical intensity is loud enough to affect the game.  But again , the experts say it is the mile high atmosphere of NMSU and the long travel distances  that affect games.

From my own experience charting Bills games (S3)....I haven't noticed any significant difference.  Last night was a good example. ...I had us to win by 7...the variable spread was as high as 8 pts.  We won by 10....Was Senior night worth 2 pts....Probably not... I would vote for the extra 24 FT shots we took

Well Wiz it begs the question. Did we shoot 24 more free throws because we were the home team. I know everyone on this board  including me believes every ref in the world hates us and we are screwed every game. Has there ever been a study as to whether a home team shoots more free throws? 

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9 minutes ago, willie said:

Well Wiz it begs the question. Did we shoot 24 more free throws because we were the home team. I know everyone on this board  including me believes every ref in the world hates us and we are screwed every game. Has there ever been a study as to whether a home team shoots more free throws? 

Since it has been shown that home teams usually get the nod on FTs it would stand to reason we would have gotten these numbers senior night or not - just being the home team is the key.

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5 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

Since it has been shown that home teams usually get the nod on FTs it would stand to reason we would have gotten these numbers senior night or not - just being the home team is the key.

That’s my point . If home teams shoot more free throws how are crowds and noise not a factor?

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And here is a study that says the crowd does make a difference......

 

CONCLUSION 
By examining the determinants of technical efficiency of college basketball teams, The researcher has explained the home-court advantage phenomenon as an efficiency phenomenon and identified the Home Court Atmosphere (measured by home crowd density), among all home-related factors, as the leading source of the home court advantage. The researcher showed that home teams, when supported by the home team’s crowd, play better with enhanced game efficiency. It is not simply playing aggressively at home or the familiarity of the home court that gives the home teams advantage over visiting teams as previous studies suggested, but rather the home court atmosphere – providing positive intrinsic recognition- that enhances the home teams to play up to their potential. Indeed, the result of this paper supports the idea that having a supportive and encouraging audience motivates the athletes to perform better.

APPLICATIONS IN SPORT
The results of this paper suggests that sports program directors and coaches have an incentive to develop ways to get the crowd into the game. Even with a small home crowd, as long as the home team crowd is fired up, that energy can be fed into the players and enhance their game efficiency. A small but rowdy crowd may be more beneficial than a large but silent crowd.

 

My bolding.....

Study was done at Xavier and studied the old A-10 which does include the Bills

Here is the whole study for those that have insomnia.

http://thesportjournal.org/article/the-home-court-advantage-evidence-from-mens-college-basketball/

 

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32 minutes ago, willie said:

Well Wiz it begs the question. Did we shoot 24 more free throws because we were the home team. I know everyone on this board  including me believes every ref in the world hates us and we are screwed every game. Has there ever been a study as to whether a home team shoots more free throws? 

Here is an answer to your question buried in this article.   I have bolded the key line...Seems like yesterday we got 10 games worth of advantage.....2.35 x 10 games = 23.5  extra shots...we had 24 extra last night.  Seems like the refs made up for past sins last night.

This from an article on Yahoo Sports posted today.

"To assess whether the perception that Kansas receives preferential treatment from Big 12 refs is reality or merely sour grapes, Yahoo Sports examined the free throw disparity in Jayhawks’ games throughout their league title streak. What that revealed is that Kansas draws fouls better than most teams everywhere it plays but the Jayhawks do have a modest advantage at home.

Kansas has attempted 532 more free throws than its opponents in Big 12 games at Allen Fieldhouse since the start of the 2004-05 season, the equivalent of 4.55 extra foul shots per game during that span. College basketball statistics guru Ken Pomeroy told Yahoo Sports that home teams across the sport have shot an average of 2.35 more free throws per game than road teams in conference play since he began compiling the statistic in 2002.

Of course, Kansas is also well above the national average at drawing fouls in conference road games. Pomeroy said the Jayhawks have shot only 0.28 less free throws per game than their opponents since 2002 while on the road in Big 12 play.

“They are good at drawing fouls everywhere, but they do have an advantage at home,” Pomeroy said. “I have a model that measures a team’s home court advantage and it says that KU has had the 38th best home foul advantage in recent seasons. So they do get a favorable whistle, but not necessarily the best in the country.”

I'm thinking that maybe the disparity grows with the importance of the game and Kansas' need of more free throws in a particular game. Cynical, I know.

Link to the article https://sports.yahoo.com/myth-reality-kansas-gets-favorable-whistle-allen-fieldhouse-171947534.html

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23 minutes ago, willie said:

That’s my point . If home teams shoot more free throws how are crowds and noise not a factor?

I was talking about the senior night phenomenon.

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7 hours ago, gobillsgo said:

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say this is the biggest game of Ford’s SLU tenure so far. I think we are hitting our stride at the perfect time, like Davidson last year. I like our chances. ROLL BILLS

Yep! About as healthy as we could get. If Bess can get back to form we could very well steal a bid like Davidson!

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-if we win tomorrow I would not be shocked if we won the A10 tourney

-with spring break next week I wonder if the team is staying east?

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Spring break in upstate NY? It is hard to imagine bikinis and snow in the same picture.

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5 hours ago, Old guy said:

Spring break in upstate NY? It is hard to imagine bikinis and snow in the same picture.

Oh Old guy, you just ain't trying hard enough. Bikinis in the snow is definitely a thing.

snow-girls.jpg

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My hat is off to you White Pelican, I hope they do not get frostbite in their privates on the way down the hill. You have to be hot to do what they are doing. Are they the cheerleaders at St. Bona?

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I'll be interested in tomorrow's match ups.  St. B normally goes 8+ deep in conference play so there will be somewhat of a revolving door, but not like what VCU showed.  You would think Bess would be assigned 6'5" Stockard, but Bess guarded Williams for maybe 4 minutes on Wed, so we don't know.  Osunniyi is a defensive beast inside at 6'10", so you would expect French first and Foreman as these two rotate.  Then you have their excellent fr 6'3" PG Lofton (Isabell on him?) and 6'6" forward Griffin (has to be Foreman, right?) and 6'4" Poyser (Goodwin?)  There appears to be plenty of time for Thatch to pick up whomever is hot.  His only mismatch would be against Osunniyi. 

Billiken Roy will be happy to see that the St. Bonaventure Senior Day celebration will be before the game.  I'm hoping Stockard, Griffin and Kaputo are emotionally exhausted by tip off.

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Watching some of the Duq - Bunnies game on replay. I'll just say that we've got our hands full tomorrow. How is that team 15-15?

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On 3/7/2019 at 12:46 PM, Aquinas said:

Question for Wiz.  My gut tells me that home teams do better on senior night than other home games.  Do you know if that is true?

We had a good run at Dayton on their senior night at the beginning of the decade. We haven’t been scheduled for senior night since.

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