JettFlight5 Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Kentucky had an unbelievable season. Similar but different to the Michigan Fab 5. But nearly all of them are gone and I am not sure who will take their places... but multiple players are needed to have real NCAA college success. Same question regarding Duke, they will certainly be good again next year... but Okafor is gone and possibly others as well. Possibly it is way too early to tell who will lead both Duke and Kentucky next year... but Jayson is too smart to assume either or both will make the Final Four again. Good? Yes. Final Four/National Champs again? Not likely. So you're saying this year will be vacated? Probably not the most off-the-wall thing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clock_Tower Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Not sure about that. The elite programs are consistently finding themselves with top seeds in the NCAA tournament regardless of what they lose from prior seasons, constantly reloading it seems like. Duke and Kentucky lose a lot to the NBA draft (Okafor, Jones, and Winslow for Duke and Cauley-Stein, the Harrison twins, Dakari Johnson, Towns, Lyles, and Booker for Kentucky), but they are also bringing in the top 2 recruiting classes (Duke with 4 top 25 players and Kentucky with 2 top 15 players). These elite programs seem to always find themselves in the hunt and Duke and Kentucky will likely both head into the season ranked in the top 10 (not sure I agree given the turnover, but they will both be really talented). At Duke Jayson would be paired with other 5 star recruits and likely make a run for a championship. That is the biggest draw for Duke. Actually, Duke made the Final Four only twice in the last 10 years (and 3 times in the last 12 years for those who might question why I only only go back 10 years). And while Duke has certainly sent plenty of guys to the NBA and several guys to the NBA prior to their Senior year, they have not traditionally been a team of Freshmen superstars like Calipari's Kentucky teams. To assume that Duke will made the Final Four next year and reload/get there with Freshmen is not what their track record suggests. As to Kentucky, they went 11 years without going to the Final Four between Tubby's first year (with Pitino's players) and Calipari's firs appearance. Most recently, of course, they failed to make the NCAA Tourney in 2009 and 2013 but, of course, made the Final Four in 4 of their last 5 years, including back to back national champions, reloading players under Calipari. Maybe they reload again... or maybe they have lost too much this year just like they did in 2012 resulting in a down/bad year for them in 2013. I suggest he latter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doowop Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 When did Kentucky win back to back national championships recently? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenOne Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Actually, Duke made the Final Four only twice in the last 10 years (and 3 times in the last 12 years for those who might question why I only only go back 10 years). And while Duke has certainly sent plenty of guys to the NBA and several guys to the NBA prior to their Senior year, they have not traditionally been a team of Freshmen superstars like Calipari's Kentucky teams. To assume that Duke will made the Final Four next year and reload/get there with Freshmen is not what their track record suggests. As to Kentucky, they went 11 years without going to the Final Four between Tubby's first year (with Pitino's players) and Calipari's firs appearance. Most recently, of course, they failed to make the NCAA Tourney in 2009 and 2013 but, of course, made the Final Four in 4 of their last 5 years, including back to back national champions, reloading players under Calipari. Maybe they reload again... or maybe they have lost too much this year just like they did in 2012 resulting in a down/bad year for them in 2013. I suggest he latter. I posted "the elite programs are consistently finding themselves with top seeds in the NCAA tournament regardless of what they lose from prior seasons" and I don't think you can dispute that. You can never predict what will happen in the NCAA tournament (see Kentucky losing this year when Vegas had them over the field), but you can pretty much assume programs like Duke and Kansas will head into the tournament among the favorites to make it to the Final 4. As far as Kentucky, they lose a lot, so I am not sure how good I see them being next year, but based on talent they will enter the season in the top 10. This is incredible, look at Duke's NCAA tournament seeding going back to 1998: '98 - 1, '99 - 1, '00 - 1, '01 - 1, '02 - 1, '03 - 3, '04 - 1, '05 - 1, '06 - 1, '07 - 6, '08 - 2, '09 - 2, '10 - 1, '11 - 1, '12 - 2, '13 - 2, '14 - 3, '15 - 1 They have been a 1 seed in 11 of the past 18 NCAA Tournaments with an average seeding less than 2, that is impressive. So to answer your question, their track record would suggest that they will be a favorite to make it to the Final 4. You can't question that if Tatum wants to win a National Championship his best chance will be by heading to Duke with his buddy Giles, they would enter the season favored to do just that. The question is whether that beats out the impact and legacy that he could build for himself in his hometown if he went to SLU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 I posted "the elite programs are consistently finding themselves with top seeds in the NCAA tournament regardless of what they lose from prior seasons" and I don't think you can dispute that. You can never predict what will happen in the NCAA tournament (see Kentucky losing this year when Vegas had them over the field), but you can pretty much assume programs like Duke and Kansas will head into the tournament among the favorites to make it to the Final 4. As far as Kentucky, they lose a lot, so I am not sure how good I see them being next year, but based on talent they will enter the season in the top 10. This is incredible, look at Duke's NCAA tournament seeding going back to 1998: '98 - 1, '99 - 1, '00 - 1, '01 - 1, '02 - 1, '03 - 3, '04 - 1, '05 - 1, '06 - 1, '07 - 6, '08 - 2, '09 - 2, '10 - 1, '11 - 1, '12 - 2, '13 - 2, '14 - 3, '15 - 1 They have been a 1 seed in 11 of the past 18 NCAA Tournaments with an average seeding less than 2, that is impressive. So to answer your question, their track record would suggest that they will be a favorite to make it to the Final 4. You can't question that if Tatum wants to win a National Championship his best chance will be by heading to Duke with his buddy Giles, they would enter the season favored to do just that. The question is whether that beats out the impact and legacy that he could build for himself in his hometown if he went to SLU. They may be favored, but the actual statistical odds before the season (and not even counting the fact this is goign to be two seasons) of them reaching the Final 4 is probably 15%? Total shot from the hip there. Using last years numbers, Kentucky had a once in a generation type of season. At the start of the tournament they had about a 70% chance of making the Final 4. Duke had one of their better seasons and had a #1 seed. Their odds were about 30% to make the Final 4. Only 6% to win the national championship. The 6% is obviously skewed by the UK season. (Using Nate Silver model on this) Point being - just because someone is a favorite doesn't mean that the numbers are that much better from #1 to #10. Maybe a 10% difference on a normal year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 This thread of 2,600 and counting definitely has a rhythm to it. 1) Some news comes out, people get all excited and a bunch of posts are made in short order 2) Most posters won't let themselves get too excited at SLU's chances and play the "we don't have a real chance" card 3) Da Love posts and gets people back on track and excited again 4) After a few days of no news people go back to arguing about the merits of choosing SLU over Duke/UK/any blue blood, making the same points time and time again. 5) Thread slows down until 1) above occurs. Repeat cycle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenOne Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Haha, so true kshoe. At least the teams in the picture has narrowed down to two, so that should limit the arguments going forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlebill Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Dook sux slu is da best Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NextYearBill Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Haha, so true kshoe. At least the teams in the picture has narrowed down to two, so that should limit the arguments going forward. i was thinking..... we still don't even know if SLU is in the final two Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Corey Tate made a similar comment in that SI article, something about shocking the world (an incredibly overused term). It seems like everyone who would be in the know has talked up SLU, so maybe they know something we don't. The more I think about it the more I have come around to believing that staying home for those 11 months would be the best thing for him (outside of competing for a championship, but that is a complete crap shoot for any program, see Kentucky). The only other thing that makes me question it is our poor coaching staff led by Jim Crews, but who really cares where you go when NBA $ and celebrity is just a year away, might as well be comfortable and spend that time with your family and friends building a legacy while training with your guys before kicking out of town. Something tells me Jayson, Justin and others with a pretty good handle on our coaching staff don't agree with your assessment of them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Dook sux slu is da best That's actually the marketing slogan for 2015-16. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 That's actually the marketing slogan for 2015-16. It is part of the rebranding of the school. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 My prediction: Tatum goes to Duke. We win 13 games this season. Neufeld is a bust. Welmer is "Jolly lite". Bishop can't even get on the court. Our promising players (Roby, Yarbrough, Bartley) decide they're tired of losing and jump ship. We're left with a starting 5 of Reynolds, Crawford, a 2 star frosh, Reggie, and Gill. We win 9 games in 2016-17. Crews gets one more year to "prove hiimself". We watch Duke win it all. Reynolds, a one star frosh, the 2 star soph, Jolly, and Gill are our starters. We win 5 games in 2017-18. Crews is fired. We replace him with Platt. 2022-2023 we go 1-29 and lose a scrimmage to Belleville West. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Our promising players (Roby, Yarbrough, Bartley) decide they're tired of losing and jump ship. We're left with a starting 5 of Reynolds, Crawford, a 2 star frosh, Reggie, and Gill. We win 9 games in 2016-17. Crews gets one more year to "prove hiimself". We watch Duke win it all. As long as we have Reggie, things are looking bright. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwayne's_World Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 My prediction: Tatum goes to Duke. We win 13 games this season. Neufeld is a bust. Welmer is "Jolly lite". Bishop can't even get on the court. Our promising players (Roby, Yarbrough, Bartley) decide they're tired of losing and jump ship. We're left with a starting 5 of Reynolds, Crawford, a 2 star frosh, Reggie, and Gill. We win 9 games in 2016-17. Crews gets one more year to "prove hiimself". We watch Duke win it all. Reynolds, a one star frosh, the 2 star soph, Jolly, and Gill are our starters. We win 5 games in 2017-18. Crews is fired. We replace him with Platt. 2022-2023 we go 1-29 and lose a scrimmage to Belleville West. Gotdamn that's the absolute worst case scenario, but the scary thing is that it's actually plausible.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MusicCityBilliken Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 My prediction: Tatum goes to Duke. We win 13 games this season. Neufeld is a bust. Welmer is "Jolly lite". Bishop can't even get on the court. Our promising players (Roby, Yarbrough, Bartley) decide they're tired of losing and jump ship. We're left with a starting 5 of Reynolds, Crawford, a 2 star frosh, Reggie, and Gill. We win 9 games in 2016-17. Crews gets one more year to "prove hiimself". We watch Duke win it all. Reynolds, a one star frosh, the 2 star soph, Jolly, and Gill are our starters. We win 5 games in 2017-18. Crews is fired. We replace him with Platt. 2022-2023 we go 1-29 and lose a scrimmage to Belleville West. What a nightmare. We been through a lost decade before, 1974-84. The difference now is we have a top-notch on-campus facility that needs to be payed for and I believe an administration that will make a sincere effort this would not happen. We are no longer the dead-end of coaches careers and should be able to attract someone good and if he pans out, keep him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 I'd be surprised if Crews lasted after the 16-17 campaign if Tatum weren't coming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken class of 15 Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 My prediction: Tatum goes to Duke. We win 13 games this season. Neufeld is a bust. Welmer is "Jolly lite". Bishop can't even get on the court. Our promising players (Roby, Yarbrough, Bartley) decide they're tired of losing and jump ship. We're left with a starting 5 of Reynolds, Crawford, a 2 star frosh, Reggie, and Gill. We win 9 games in 2016-17. Crews gets one more year to "prove hiimself". We watch Duke win it all. Reynolds, a one star frosh, the 2 star soph, Jolly, and Gill are our starters. We win 5 games in 2017-18. Crews is fired. We replace him with Platt. 2022-2023 we go 1-29 and lose a scrimmage to Belleville West. You're assuming Belleville West would want to play us. What would they have to gain by scheduling a game against us at that point? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo027 Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 That prediction is way too optimistic. I predict Tatum goes to Duke, we go 0-30 this season, all the players transfer, all the coaches are fired, the arena is torn down, and the program is disbanded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Metzinger Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Yea I agree with this. I have talked to Illinois fans and Mizzou fans and no matter what Jayson has said or could say, they would never be convinced he is/was seriously considering us and it's only a favor to SLU. Finishing in 2nd would not help. I would be disappointed if he picks Duke but no way could I boo a teenage kid because I dislike and disagree with the decision he made on the 1 year of college. First problem is talking to illini and tiger fans. Their opinion literally means . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Dook sux slu is da best Littlebill I did not know you could talk the NJ dialect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlebill Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Littlebill I did not know you could talk the NJ dialect. I'm bilingual Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Metzinger Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 I'm bilingual +1 Too bad the A-10 Tourney isn't in Atlantic City anymore...best thing ever is to be on the Boardwalk and yell "Hey, Tony!" and see how many people turn to look lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doowop Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 My prediction: Tatum goes to Duke. We win 13 games this season. Neufeld is a bust. Welmer is "Jolly lite". Bishop can't even get on the court. Our promising players (Roby, Yarbrough, Bartley) decide they're tired of losing and jump ship. We're left with a starting 5 of Reynolds, Crawford, a 2 star frosh, Reggie, and Gill. We win 9 games in 2016-17. Crews gets one more year to "prove hiimself". We watch Duke win it all. Reynolds, a one star frosh, the 2 star soph, Jolly, and Gill are our starters. We win 5 games in 2017-18. Crews is fired. We replace him with Platt. 2022-2023 we go 1-29 and lose a scrimmage to Belleville West. Who the heck is Gill? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVBilliken Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 And we don't know if Duke is in the final 2.....so we wait. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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