Drake over The Bills by 10

[The Wiz]

 

 

 

 

General Outlook......We have reached S3...Significant Sample Size...8 games. From here on out the computer is mainly using real data.   Things should be more "real" from this point forward....not just on my computer but on most forecasting tools.  We reach this mile marker  at C+ ...slightly above average.   Unfortunately,  in the big order of things that won't be good enough.    B+ gives you a chance to Dance (about 25%) ....B usually means NIT.  The Bills can still make some head way  but they would have to get up to a B-  in the next 4 games to show some promise ...no easy task.   As for the A-10, if the the Bills are able to get to  B-  by the end of OOC play they have a chance to finish top 4...again no easy task.

So what have we learned so far.  That most mid majors need that "one guy" on the team to compete...that player that puts you over the top...that player who if he gets hurt ...your season is over...SIU is a good example with X.... He was Mr. Saluki as I mentioned in the pregame forecast.  But if you look at our 4 losses you will see "that one guy" that puts the team over the top in each of those games.  Do we have that ? Some think it was Parker.  The computer says it doesn't know if he was the guy because he didn't play 8 games...but he was the leading scorer at the time he went down...so maybe.  He  will need another 4 games as the "old" Parker or he may need  to start over and crank out another 8 games  to get up to speed when he comes back.  

So is there hope going forward....I ran The Bills vs SIU game again (after the computer had a chance to "see the kids play") and of course it was not a 40 pt loss.  Assuming we played a normal game and SIU played its regular game...SIU by 9...not great but much better than 39.  So we have some work to do. The computer looks at it this way....At this point in time , our toughest game of the season  so far and possibly for the year was USU.   We will not play a better team than them AND we were close in that game. ...which means that there is nobody coming up who we can't beat as long as we play decent.  To paraphrase Jim Carrey...."so you're telling me there's a chance".....Yes

 

 Game Preview....Drake comes into the game as a B+ team.   The have 2 players we need to control to win... Devries their scorer and Brodie  their shooter... 70%. ...The Drake weakness is their defense...Their attitude is go ahead and shoot we will outscore you.  If we can get our D going again,  we do have the ability to out score them.  Won't be easy ...but I am "telling you  there's a chance".

 

Report Card.... 

..Report card  after the last game is negative...2 up ...5 down

Let's see what things look like....

...................SLU......................DRK........................SLU.............................DRK

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............C.......................B+.............................D.................................C+

FG%...............D+........................A-............................D-................................D-

3P%...............B+.........................C-...........................C-................................D+

FT%...............B-...........................A-..................................................................

Reb...............D-..........................D-.............................F+.................................B

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....3P%..........Def.....Reb

Down.........Off......PPG...FT%.......Def....PPG...FG%...3P%

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

FT%...Jimerson...90th...90.9%

DRKE

PPG...Devries..39th

FT%.....Wright.........90th...90.9%

FG%.....Brodie...11th...70.2%

Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills....

Parker ....Nov 17....Foot...fractured  foot...out indefinitely

Drake....none

Keys to the Game......Stop Devries and Brodie

WWN2D2W...Target slash...49/51/40/72....Hold DRK's top 2 to 27pts......Hold Brodie to under 50% on FG%...Match them on TOs and steals.  Rebounding should be close this game.....In order to win we need to hold them to 73 pts.

Bottom line....Use our defense to keep the Bulldogs on a leash and there will be no treat for Drake.

[Pistol]

Aa much as I want to make a joke that you're missing a zero, Drake isn't really the kind of team that beats teams by >30. More likely, they're going to get out to an early lead and keep SLU out of arm's distance the entire game. I would expect it to go similarly to the Wichita State game.

[slufan13]

I expect to come out with a little fire after getting embarrassed over the weekend. But Drake is too good. Maybe we can hang in there a while. If we come out flat again after giving up 100 to SIU, I will start to buy the idea that we lose every game the rest of the way

[slufan13]

If this is a C+ team then a team of 05, Roy, MB73, Steve, and myself could beat a F team. 

[Soderball]

12 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

 

 

 

 

General Outlook......We have reached S3...Significant Sample Size...8 games. From here on out the computer is mainly using real data.   Things should be more "real" from this point forward....not just on my computer but on most forecasting tools.  We reach this mile marker  at C+ ...slightly above average.   Unfortunately,  in the big order of things that won't be good enough.    B+ gives you a chance to Dance (about 25%) ....B usually means NIT.  The Bills can still make some head way  but they would have to get up to a B-  in the next 4 games to show some promise ...no easy task.   As for the A-10, if the the Bills are able to get to  B-  by the end of OOC play they have a chance to finish top 4...again no easy task.

So what have we learned so far.  That most mid majors need that "one guy" on the team to compete...that player that puts you over the top...that player who if he gets hurt ...your season is over...SIU is a good example with X.... He was Mr. Saluki as I mentioned in the pregame forecast.  But if you look at our 4 losses you will see "that one guy" that puts the team over the top in each of those games.  Do we have that ? Some think it was Parker.  The computer says it doesn't know if he was the guy because he didn't play 8 games...but he was the leading scorer at the time he went down...so maybe.  He  will need another 4 games as the "old" Parker or he may need  to start over and crank out another 8 games  to get up to speed when he comes back.  

So is there hope going forward....I ran The Bills vs SIU game again (after the computer had a chance to "see the kids play") and of course it was not a 40 pt loss.  Assuming we played a normal game and SIU played its regular game...SIU by 9...not great but much better than 39.  So we have some work to do. The computer looks at it this way....At this point in time , our toughest game of the season  so far and possibly for the year was USU.   We will not play a better team than them AND we were close in that game. ...which means that there is nobody coming up who we can't beat as long as we play decent.  To paraphrase Jim Carrey...."so you're telling me there's a chance".....Yes

 

 Game Preview....Drake comes into the game as a B+ team.   The have 2 players we need to control to win... Devries their scorer and Brodie  their shooter... 70%. ...The Drake weakness is their defense...Their attitude is go ahead and shoot we will outscore you.  If we can get our D going again,  we do have the ability to out score them.  Won't be easy ...but I am "telling you  there's a chance".

 

Report Card.... 

..Report card  after the last game is negative...2 up ...5 down

Let's see what things look like....

...................SLU......................DRK........................SLU.............................DRK

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............C.......................B+.............................D.................................C+

FG%...............D+........................A-............................D-................................D-

3P%...............B+.........................C-...........................C-................................D+

FT%...............B-...........................A-..................................................................

Reb...............D-..........................D-.............................F+.................................B

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....3P%..........Def.....Reb

Down.........Off......PPG...FT%.......Def....PPG...FG%...3P%

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

FT%...Jimerson...90th...90.9%

DRKE

PPG...Devries..39th

FT%.....Wright.........90th...90.9%

FG%.....Brodie...11th...70.2%

Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills....

Parker ....Nov 17....Foot...fractured  foot...out indefinitely

Drake....none

Keys to the Game......Stop Devries and Brodie

WWN2D2W...Target slash...49/51/40/72....Hold DRK's top 2 to 27pts......Hold Brodie to under 50% on FG%...Match them on TOs and steals.  Rebounding should be close this game.....In order to win we need to hold them to 73 pts.

Bottom line....Use our defense to keep the Bulldogs on a leash and there will be no treat for Drake.

Hey I said SIU by 9 as the first post. hmmm.

 

This is the first analysis i've seen from you that i like. This is a fair assessment and i agree with your take of Drake by 10, we are helped by playing on home field. While SLU is bad at defense; if by some miracle we actually play it, "there is a chance" .. games have to be played after all.

 

Still don't like this, don't really like us vs anyone at this point.

[The Wiz]

2 minutes ago, Soderball said:

Hey I said SIU by 9 as the first post. hmmm.

 

This is the first analysis i've seen from you that i like. This is a fair assessment and i agree with your take of Drake by 10, we are helped by playing on home field. While SLU is bad at defense; if by some miracle we actually play it, "there is a chance" .. games have to be played after all.

 

Still don't like this, don't really like us vs anyone at this point.

That is why you have to wait for the first 8 games

[Soderball]

1 minute ago, The Wiz said:

That is why you have to wait for the first 8 games

What were the ratings we had under under Crews all four years?

 

and what were our ratings CTFs first four years if you have them. It seems about right, that we can beat Dartmouth, SIUE, etc. but will struggle with talent. NET shows us 3-0 vs Q4 and 0-3 vs Q2(and 1-1 vs Q3.. go figure.)

I'd have to assume we get the ability to challenge Q3 teams again with Parker, who we needed to beat Wyoming.

[The Wiz]

10 minutes ago, slufan13 said:

If this is a C+ team then a team of 05, Roy, MB73, Steve, and myself could beat a F team. 

Hmm...you probably need an F- team to have a chance...someone like MS Valley St  Delta Devils....I show the Bills would win that by 22.

[The Wiz]

2 minutes ago, Soderball said:

What were the ratings we had under under Crews all four years?

 

and what were our ratings CTFs first four years if you have them. It seems about right, that we can beat Dartmouth, SIUE, etc. but will struggle with talent. NET shows us 3-0 vs Q4 and 0-3 vs Q2(and 1-1 vs Q3.. go figure.)

I'd have to assume we get the ability to challenge Q3 teams again with Parker, who we needed to beat Wyoming.

The ratings during the 1st 4 years of Ford are still on the board buried in the message board ...they were ok...Under Crews not good. It was during the Crews years  that I added the grades of F+  and F-  to the system.

[billikenbill]

Where’s Mike Crawford when you need him?

10 seems optimisic. Seems likely Meadows won’t be able to contribute. The way he left the court and then needing to be checked out at the hospital says he may miss a game or two, or at best see limited time.

Hargrove needs to rediscover his 3 point shot, and Dalger needs to not shoot threes but make layups and FTs. Things look pretty dark, dank, and abysmal at the moment.

[BrettJollyComedyHour]

4 minutes ago, billikenbill said:

Where’s Mike Crawford when you need him?

Happily married to Erin Nelson from the women's team, lol.

[JMM28]

Drake has underachieved this season so far compared to expectations. But they are still a much better team than SIUC. Tucker DeVries might be the best individual player SLU sees all year. 

Darian DeVries is a realistic candidate for next season here too. He has turned down a few offers from other schools already though. 

[Soderball]

16 minutes ago, billikenbill said:

Where’s Mike Crawford when you need him?

10 seems optimisic. Seems likely Meadows won’t be able to contribute. The way he left the court and then needing to be checked out at the hospital says he may miss a game or two, or at best see limited time.

Hargrove needs to rediscover his 3 point shot, and Dalger needs to not shoot threes but make layups and FTs. Things look pretty dark, dank, and abysmal at the moment.

Hargrove needs to stop launching those. I'm OK with him firing it once or twice a game to keep an opposing team honest; but he is left open for a reason.

 

Dalger firing those is just absurd. He gets benched for a reason.

[SLUMedBilliken15]

1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

General Outlook......We have reached S3...

My immediate thought... Situation 3... Glad there isn't another scandal on top of all the other mess...

[CenHudDude]

2 hours ago, slufan13 said:

If this is a C+ team then a team of 05, Roy, MB73, Steve, and myself could beat a F team. 

That looks like an interesting roster.  Who are the inside players on that team and how do they stack up against Zhang and Van Bussel?

[billikenfan05]

1 hour ago, CenHudDude said:

That looks like an interesting roster.  Who are the inside players on that team and how do they stack up against Zhang and Van Bussel?

I'm a 3 and D guy. 

[slufan13]

42 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said:

I'm a D guy. 

We know

[Billikenbooster]

Roy says they run run run!

[slu72]

I’m hoping for the best, an L by less than 15, but expecting the worst, an L by +15. We’re hurt, inexperienced, short ….. yada yada yada. 

[Soderball]

19 hours ago, Billikenbooster said:

Roy says they run run run!

Broy would utilize lightning quickness off the rebound and go for fast breaks. The Delta Devils won't know what hit them.

[billiken_roy]

1 hour ago, Soderball said:

Broy would utilize lightning quickness off the rebound and go for fast breaks. The Delta Devils won't know what hit them.

Finally something we agree on 

[HoosierPal]

 

[Lord Elrond]

24 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

 

This will not improve the computer’s opinion of the upcoming game

[CenHudDude]

34 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

 

WOW!  Can it get any worse?  B’Roy might have to suit up for this one.  Doesn’t sound like we will have too many players ready to go

[Dr Bird]

18 minutes ago, CenHudDude said:

WOW!  Can it get any worse?  B’Roy might have to suit up for this one.  Doesn’t sound like we will have too many players ready to go

Next MBM'er up!