The Bills over RI by 12

[The Wiz]

 

Just a few extra notes on the VCU game...Baldwin had a season stopper game...80/80/80/100 (the extra slash is the 2P category). ...37pts with at least 9 pts in each category.... 9 consecutive FTM...12pts from 3...16 pts from 2.  We will play VCU again... maybe twice more...Baldwin will not have a game like that again,  against us or anyone else.  And yet as extraordinary as it was,  we still had a chance to win...In the first 15 min of the  2nd half , the lead never varied by more than 3 pts off of even..i.e. the Bills neither lead nor trailed by more than 3pts. With 5 min left, VCU moved to 5pts ahead...but again with less than 3 mins to go in the game SLU trailed by 3 again.  I think if you asked our team if they could beat these guys,  the answer would be yes. Well, they will have 1 or 2 more chances.. and the ACE may not be the high card next time.

Game Outlook...On to Rhody...The Bills have dropped to a B team from B+ where we have been most of the season....The question for this game is ....Is RI a bad team?  No...they are a C team.  In the D1 universe they would be considered an average team.  The better question would be ...Is RI a bad offensive team...the answer is a resounding yes....they are an offensive team (not in a good way)  on offense. You can see the details in the report card below.  And as bad as it looks,  it is even worse as they have lost at least 1 maybe 2 key players( see injury report below)....In addition , they don't protect the ball very well...F+.  Now it is time for the warning label... They can and do play defense...not great but above average.  Also while they have horrific shooting...they can make FTs as well as rebound...lots of chances to rebound when you are missing shots. One last caveat which will bring things into perspective...they beat Dayton.

General Outlook....The computer still shows us with an excellent chance to be a top 4 A10 finisher (double bye) And we are only 1 game out of 1st on the lost side.  Look at it like a baseball fan would.  If the Cardinals were 1 game out on the lost side with 8 games to play and no real dominant teams in the Central Division , Cardinal fans would be excited coming down the stretch.  Yes,  it is a disappointment for Bills fans so far , due to high expectations....but that still doesn't change the facts...a top 4 finish in the A10,  very probable plus 1 game out of first on the lost side with 8 games to play.

Report Card....

2 categories up ....on both arcs offense and defense......2 categories down (FTs and Tot rebs).  Another clean Card (no Ds or Fs)...as long as we have a "clean Card " we will be favored in most of the rest of the games.  If Rhody scores more than 70 pts against us then we may lose our "clean" card status as well as the Bills being favored in most  future games...play defense.

Let's look at the report card...

...................SLU......................RI........................SLU.............................RI

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B....................D-..............................C-..................................C

FG%...............B....................F-......15th WITN........A-.................................B-

3P%...............C+..................F.................................B..................................B-

FT%...............B-...................B..................................................................

Reb...............A.....................A-...............................C....................................D

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....3P%....Def.....3P%

Down.........Off.....PPG...FT%....Def....none

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......41st  all time D1 list

Assts/TO ratio...Collins...8th...up

Reb...Okoro...52nd...dn

Blks...Okoro ...68th...dn

Off Reb...Okoro...24th ...dn

Dou Dou...Collins...49th...unch

RI

none

 

 Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills....2/3..Thames....Questionable...undisclosed......unspecified issue makes it uncertain if he will be able to play on Tues

RI...2/2...Carey...ankle...Questionable...uncertain if he will be ready to play on Tues

.......1/5...Bilau...knee surgery...out for season

 

Keys to the game.... No second chances for RI missed shots...we don't need to help them.  Bother them and they will turn the ball over.  Should be a lot of opportunities to score in close...take advantage of them.  Play up tempo..they will want to play slow.  Make some shots. 

WWN2D2W...Make the slash...46/35/75...Hold their  top 2 guys Leggett and Freeman to 25 pts combined.....beat them on TOs by 2...Out rebound them

Bottom line....If the Bills play their game, they will be on the Rhode to victory.

[billikenbill]

Since your predictions seem to be off this year by about 12 points per game, what you’re actually saying is Bills vs. Rhody, even. 

Wiz, I’m just giving you a hard time. It’s just hard to be optimistic in the middle of such a disappointing season.

[Billikenbooster]

Wiz

I really enjoy your analyses and predictions. Predictions are based on past performances, tendencies. When individuals/teams vary from those tendencies, predictions will have to be off. Correct?

It seems to me this year’s team seems to have more variability than past years. Your predictions seem to be ‘off’ more than usual.

Is it possible to compare this year’s version of Team Blue with, say, the last 5 year’s performances?  On the one hand this might seem like a formidable task, but for a numbers guy like you, it might be an interesting exercise.  
 

If not possible, I would be interested in your gut feeling.

Thanks

 

Edited February 5, 2023 by Billikenbooster
Spelling error

[BANGheGOTit]

Can’t even get excited about this upcoming game.  The chances of making the field of 68 is zero without a A10 tourney championship, the likelihood of getting a double bye with this roster/coach is now less than ever.  Forget all of the hype about the 7th season, one of the oldest D1 teams, best roster ever, and the weakest (or perhaps most unpredictable A10 ever)—-this group plays like a bunch of freshmen who have only been together for a few months and they don’t know the system.  I wonder if Yuri is second guessing his decision to not to TN?  I wonder more, if Travis is second guessing trying to keep Yuri here—at least he would have gotten the sympathy pass from many fans had Yuri left.  What a horrible ROI for whoever paid the NIL money to keep Yuri here!  What did you get for that??!  A possible NIT bid at best?  Pathetic.  

Edited February 5, 2023 by BANGheGOTit

[billiken_roy]

Plus we'd have ramey who is doing great as the Top 5 ranked Arizona Wildcats point guard.

[BANGheGOTit]

13 hours ago, The Wiz said:

 

Just a few extra notes on the VCU game...Baldwin had a season stopper game...80/80/80/100 (the extra slash is the 2P category). ...37pts with at least 9 pts in each category.... 9 consecutive FTM...12pts from 3...16 pts from 2.  We will play VCU again... maybe twice more...Baldwin will not have a game like that again,  against us or anyone else.  And yet as extraordinary as it was,  we still had a chance to win...In the first 15 min of the  2nd half , the lead never varied by more than 3 pts off of even..i.e. the Bills neither lead nor trailed by more than 3pts. With 5 min left, VCU moved to 5pts ahead...but again with less than 3 mins to go in the game SLU trailed by 3 again.  I think if you asked our team if they could beat these guys,  the answer would be yes. Well, they will have 1 or 2 more chances.. and the ACE may not be the high card next time.

Game Outlook...On to Rhody...The Bills have dropped to a B team from B+ where we have been most of the season....The question for this game is ....Is RI a bad team?  No...they are a C team.  In the D1 universe they would be considered an average team.  The better question would be ...Is RI a bad offensive team...the answer is a resounding yes....they are an offensive team (not in a good way)  on offense. You can see the details in the report card below.  And as bad as it looks,  it is even worse as they have lost at least 1 maybe 2 key players( see injury report below)....In addition , they don't protect the ball very well...F+.  Now it is time for the warning label... They can and do play defense...not great but above average.  Also while they have horrific shooting...they can make FTs as well as rebound...lots of chances to rebound when you are missing shots. One last caveat which will bring things into perspective...they beat Dayton.

General Outlook....The computer still shows us with an excellent chance to be a top 4 A10 finisher (double bye) And we are only 1 game out of 1st on the lost side.  Look at it like a baseball fan would.  If the Cardinals were 1 game out on the lost side with 8 games to play and no real dominant teams in the Central Division , Cardinal fans would be excited coming down the stretch.  Yes,  it is a disappointment for Bills fans so far , due to high expectations....but that still doesn't change the facts...a top 4 finish in the A10,  very probable plus 1 game out of first on the lost side with 8 games to play.

Report Card....

2 categories up ....on both arcs offense and defense......2 categories down (FTs and Tot rebs).  Another clean Card (no Ds or Fs)...as long as we have a "clean Card " we will be favored in most of the rest of the games.  If Rhody scores more than 70 pts against us then we may lose our "clean" card status as well as the Bills being favored in most  future games...play defense.

Let's look at the report card...

...................SLU......................RI........................SLU.............................RI

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B....................D-..............................C-..................................C

FG%...............B....................F-......15th WITN........A-.................................B-

3P%...............C+..................F.................................B..................................B-

FT%...............B-...................B..................................................................

Reb...............A.....................A-...............................C....................................D

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....3P%....Def.....3P%

Down.........Off.....PPG...FT%....Def....none

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......41st  all time D1 list

Assts/TO ratio...Collins...8th...up

Reb...Okoro...52nd...dn

Blks...Okoro ...68th...dn

Off Reb...Okoro...24th ...dn

Dou Dou...Collins...49th...unch

RI

none

 

 Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills....2/3..Thames....Questionable...undisclosed......unspecified issue makes it uncertain if he will be able to play on Tues

RI...2/2...Carey...ankle...Questionable...uncertain if he will be ready to play on Tues

.......1/5...Bilau...knee surgery...out for season

 

Keys to the game.... No second chances for RI missed shots...we don't need to help them.  Bother them and they will turn the ball over.  Should be a lot of opportunities to score in close...take advantage of them.  Play up tempo..they will want to play slow.  Make some shots. 

WWN2D2W...Make the slash...46/35/75...Hold their  top 2 guys Leggett and Freeman to 25 pts combined.....beat them on TOs by 2...Out rebound them

Bottom line....If the Bills play their game, they will be on the Rhode to victory.

Your computer doesn’t show the lack of intestinal fortitude and helter skelter personality of this current roster and coach (I do believe Travis bleeds blue, and I do believe he desperately wants to win—he just doesn’t have the X’s and O’s Capability he needs with this group).  This stinks from the HC on down.  You can find gold nuggets in the middle of mud and rocks, so there are some positives on the staff and roster, but when the team loses, there’s always a long excuse.  “If only”, “likely wont happen again”, “shot lights out”, blah blah—-it’s always the same.  This team finds that one or two ways to lose.  After this many failed opportunities it’s time to just admit this team and program are on the bubble—and not the one any of us want.

Edited February 5, 2023 by BANGheGOTit

[The Wiz]

3 hours ago, Billikenbooster said:

Wiz

I really enjoy your analyses and predictions. Predictions are based on past performances, tendencies. When individuals/teams vary from those tendencies, predictions will have to be off. Correct?

It seems to me this year’s team seems to have more variability than past years. Your predictions seem to be ‘off’ more than usual.

Is it possible to compare this year’s version of Team Blue with, say, the last 5 year’s performances?  On the one hand this might seem like a formidable task, but for a numbers guy like you, it might be an interesting exercise.  
 

If not possible, I would be interested in your gut feeling.

Thanks

 

 There are a few parts to your question...Let's take them piece by piece.

Predictions are based on past performances, tendencies. When individuals/teams vary from those tendencies, predictions will have to be off. Correct?   Well, kind of.   At the beginning of the season before any games are played , I use a Bayesian predictive model without any real data...As you know , I try to be accountable for what I write and always go over the numbers after the fact.  I am always surprised how close this part of the model is at the end of the season. As the season goes on, I blend in real data from real games. After the 8th game of the season, the model is fairly dependent on the real data with some Bayesian left in for predictive purposes for the rest of the season.

It seems to me this year’s team seems to have more variability than past years.  I think the key word here is variability and how we use it.  Variability has 2 factors which are tied to gather. The first is the strength of the team...how good are they compared to the rest of the A10?...or the rest of all D1?  The second is how does that overall ranking affect the variability of the outcomes. The 2 are inversely related. When there is lots of variability on the ranking the variability on the outcome drops and when the variability on the ranking of the teams drop the variability of the outcome goes up. I measure the ranking ( how good is the team overall  compared to all other D1 teams) using the grading system.   Let's look at an example...Let's assume that all 15 teams were the same ranking / grade. Every time teams played ...the predicted outcome would always be the same...50-50. The variability in the ranking is low (All the same) ...the out come (who wins or loses) is high (50% every game).  Now let's now increase the variability of the teams...a few A's,  a few F's and the rest of the teams scattered throughout B-D with no duplicates. This is not that different from the A10 during the Majerus years...lots of variability on ranking.  As a result , less variability on outcome.  When SLU played Fordham , you knew who was going to win. More variability in ranking = more accurate outcome.

Your predictions seem to be ‘off’ more than usual.   What I do is based on probability. A quote from one of my favorite philosophers ...Rene Descartes..."When it is not in our power to follow what is true, we ought to follow what is most probable."...1637.  When the computer predicts it is predicting what is most probable.

   My contention is that the A10 is closer to parity now than in past years... much like the first example in the variability paragraph above.  There are no A teams or F teams in the A10 now. Highest ranked teams are B+...Lowest D+...most jammed into the C's.  If we played VCU 10 times this year ...we would win 4-6 of those games.  My thoughts are that the portal and NIL are driving the parity train.  Those that know how to maneuver in this world will do better but not too much better because those 2 forces will continue to push teams back to parity.  

So what is the problem right now?.. why is everyone so disappointed?  High expectations...probably too high.  In the preseason outlook,  I showed us as a B+ team ...with a range of B- to A.  The preconference forecast with a lot more data...still showed us at B+ with a range of B to A-...we are at B right now. If you asked the computer... is it way off? , it would answer no...read the forecasts.  As far as taking  out the wrath on the computer , it is a matter of when bad news shows up ... kill the  messenger. (HAL will tell you that is not a good idea) Tying the message and probability together...imagine if you and I went to the Casino and we took the Board along to watch. You ask the computer which number has the best chance to win...it says 7... a 6 to 1 shot.  You ask which number is the worst ...the answer is 12 or2...36 to 1 shot for either number. You put your money on 7 ...then you roll the dice and 12 comes up....Immediately , all MBMs at the table take out their phone ( no phone bans at the OZ Casino) and write the message ..."the computer is way off".  On the next roll , you roll 12 again...all MBMs post on the Board again,  get over here quick , ignore the computer , we have a sure thing ...bring lots of money.    An example of realty only being as good as your last roll...To see this in action,  go to the GDT when the game is live.

Is it possible to compare this year’s version of Team Blue with, say, the last 5 year’s performances?  Looking back,  the raw numbers have declined...we are not as good as the teams back then BUT I grade on the curve.  So based on grades, we are about the same as we always have been (relatively speaking) using the curve. The A10,  the same...Their raw numbers are not as good either but again grading on the curve the A10 is about the same...they are usually 9-12 in conf rankings ...they are currently at 12 ...lower end but still within the norm.  Now @Bay Area Billiken will like this next statement.   With teams and conferences moving more toward the middle(parity) that leaves more at large bids up at the top of the curve(P5).

Hope this long winded response answered your questions...Now let's beat the Rams...3rd time is a charm (as in 3rd Ram team in a row)

[BANGheGOTit]

4 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

 There are a few parts to your question...Let's take them piece by piece.

Predictions are based on past performances, tendencies. When individuals/teams vary from those tendencies, predictions will have to be off. Correct?   Well, kind of.   At the beginning of the season before any games are played , I use a Bayesian predictive model without any real data...As you know , I try to be accountable for what I write and always go over the numbers after the fact.  I am always surprised how close this part of the model is at the end of the season. As the season goes on, I blend in real data from real games. After the 8th game of the season, the model is fairly dependent on the real data with some Bayesian left in for predictive purposes for the rest of the season.

It seems to me this year’s team seems to have more variability than past years.  I think the key word here is variability and how we use it.  Variability has 2 factors which are tied to gather. The first is the strength of the team...how good are they compared to the rest of the A10?...or the rest of all D1?  The second is how does that overall ranking affect the variability of the outcomes. The 2 are inversely related. When there is lots of variability on the ranking the variability on the outcome drops and when the variability on the ranking of the teams drop the variability of the outcome goes up. I measure the ranking ( how good is the team overall  compared to all other D1 teams) using the grading system.   Let's look at an example...Let's assume that all 15 teams were the same ranking / grade. Every time teams played ...the predicted outcome would always be the same...50-50. The variability in the ranking is low (All the same) ...the out come (who wins or loses) is high (50% every game).  Now let's now increase the variability of the teams...a few A's,  a few F's and the rest of the teams scattered throughout B-D with no duplicates. This is not that different from the A10 during the Majerus years...lots of variability on ranking.  As a result , less variability on outcome.  When SLU played Fordham , you knew who was going to win. More variability in ranking = more accurate outcome.

Your predictions seem to be ‘off’ more than usual.   What I do is based on probability. A quote from one of my favorite philosophers ...Rene Descartes..."When it is not in our power to follow what is true, we ought to follow what is most probable."...1637.  When the computer predicts it is predicting what is most probable.

   My contention is that the A10 is closer to parity now than in past years... much like the first example in the variability paragraph above.  There are no A teams or F teams in the A10 now. Highest ranked teams are B+...Lowest D+...most jammed into the C's.  If we played VCU 10 times this year ...we would win 4-6 of those games.  My thoughts are that the portal and NIL are driving the parity train.  Those that know how to maneuver in this world will do better but not too much better because those 2 forces will continue to push teams back to parity.  

So what is the problem right now?.. why is everyone so disappointed?  High expectations...probably too high.  In the preseason outlook,  I showed us as a B+ team ...with a range of B- to A.  The preconference forecast with a lot more data...still showed us at B+ with a range of B to A-...we are at B right now. If you asked the computer... is it way off? , it would answer no...read the forecasts.  As far as taking  out the wrath on the computer , it is a matter of when bad news shows up ... kill the  messenger. (HAL will tell you that is not a good idea) Tying the message and probability together...imagine if you and I went to the Casino and we took the Board along to watch. You ask the computer which number has the best chance to win...it says 7... a 6 to 1 shot.  You ask which number is the worst ...the answer is 12 or2...36 to 1 shot for either number. You put your money on 7 ...then you roll the dice and 12 comes up....Immediately , all MBMs at the table take out their phone ( no phone bans at the OZ Casino) and write the message ..."the computer is way off".  On the next roll , you roll 12 again...all MBMs post on the Board again,  get over here quick , ignore the computer , we have a sure thing ...bring lots of money.    An example of realty only being as good as your last roll...To see this in action,  go to the GDT when the game is live.

Is it possible to compare this year’s version of Team Blue with, say, the last 5 year’s performances?  Looking back,  the raw numbers have declined...we are not as good as the teams back then BUT I grade on the curve.  So based on grades, we are about the same as we always have been (relatively speaking) using the curve. The A10,  the same...Their raw numbers are not as good either but again grading on the curve the A10 is about the same...they are usually 9-12 in conf rankings ...they are currently at 12 ...lower end but still within the norm.  Now @Bay Area Billiken will like this next statement.   With teams and conferences moving more toward the middle(parity) that leaves more at large bids up at the top of the curve(P5).

Hope this long winded response answered your questions...Now let's beat the Rams...3rd time is a charm (as in 3rd Ram team in a row)

“High expectations…probably too high”? What is a fan base supposed to feel when it is hyped as perhaps the best team in Ford’s tenure?  Not trying to be critical of your statement, but when this program—under this coach, made a tournament, had 2 other legit chances (1 wiped by the stupid Covid bs), and this was billed as the deepest, most talented, and complete teams in recent memory (maybe not the exact terms used, but you get the drift)—if the fan base can’t get excited and have high expectations about THIS squad according to many people, preseason rankings, etc…then as a fan base we may as well not EVER hope to dream the “lofty goal” of say a SIUE, SEMO, or SIU and actually have a legit shot of making the dance.  Check the standing in their respective conferences and tell me I’m wrong.  Apples to oranges as for as conferences?  Ok, dare we ever dream of reaching the status of a VCU or Dayton?  Sounds like that’s out of the question…

[dlarry]

8 hours ago, BANGheGOTit said:

Can’t even get excited about this upcoming game.  The chances of making the field of 68 is zero without a A10 tourney championship, the likelihood of getting a double bye with this roster/coach is now less than ever.  Forget all of the hype about the 7th season, one of the oldest D1 teams, best roster ever, and the weakest (or perhaps most unpredictable A10 ever)—-this group plays like a bunch of freshmen who have only been together for a few months and they don’t know the system.  I wonder if Yuri is second guessing his decision to not to TN?  I wonder more, if Travis is second guessing trying to keep Yuri here—at least he would have gotten the sympathy pass from many fans had Yuri left.  What a horrible ROI for whoever paid the NIL money to keep Yuri here!  What did you get for that??!  A possible NIT bid at best?  Pathetic.  

I don’t watch much Tennessee  basketball but I have a hard time believing Yuri would be getting many minutes on the number 2 team in the country.

So the question is would he rather be riding the pine on a winner or having the reigns and the freedom to do whatever he wants on a helter skelter mess of a team. 
 

Seeing him play this year makes me believe he would rather pad his stats on a loser than be a backup on a winner.

[BigMouthBilliken]

If Bills favored by 12 that means they may win by a squeaker. Losing by 4 more likely

[Schasz]

37 minutes ago, dlarry said:

I don’t watch much Tennessee  basketball but I have a hard time believing Yuri would be getting many minutes on the number 2 team in the country.

So the question is would he rather be riding the pine on a winner or having the reigns and the freedom to do whatever he wants on a helter skelter mess of a team. 
 

Seeing him play this year makes me believe he would rather pad his stats on a loser than be a backup on a winner.

I do watch all of UT's games as my wife of 44 years is a VFL (Vol for Life). Frankly, from a chemistry standpoint Yuri not heading to Knoxville may have been the best thing for the Vols chemistry. Couple years ago Rick Barnes found a 5' 9" guard in New York Zakai Ziegler. He's taken over the PG and frankly while Yuri would have gotten minutes I like the chemistry on the Vols team much more than I do on the Bills. Rick Barnes emphasis is on defense and Zakai plays solid defense while running the offense. I'm not sure what Ford's emphasis is and haven't been able to figure it our for 7 years.

[BANGheGOTit]

34 minutes ago, Schasz said:

I do watch all of UT's games as my wife of 44 years is a VFL (Vol for Life). Frankly, from a chemistry standpoint Yuri not heading to Knoxville may have been the best thing for the Vols chemistry. Couple years ago Rick Barnes found a 5' 9" guard in New York Zakai Ziegler. He's taken over the PG and frankly while Yuri would have gotten minutes I like the chemistry on the Vols team much more than I do on the Bills. Rick Barnes emphasis is on defense and Zakai plays solid defense while running the offense. I'm not sure what Ford's emphasis is and haven't been able to figure it our for 7 years.

Travis puts emphasis on recruiting.  He gets his favorite 6-7 guys and they get most of the minutes. His game plan is to out-recruit his competition.  Any game day or in-game moves are clearly by accident, or he overthinks it and once the team has success—he quickly changes it in a genius move to be ahead of his competition before they can adjust and stop the excellent 4 minute span where the Bills go on a run.

[HoosierPal]

Archie Miller runs a packline defense.  The purpose of this defense is to limit dribble penetration into the paint.  All the “help defenders” stay near an imaginary line, roughly at the fouline . This line mirrors the arc of the three-point line. In creating this perimeter that extends from the free-throw line to the baseline, this compact defense forces jump shots instead of open layups.  You front the post player making it harder for a direct pass.

The two ways to beat this defense are first jump shots.  If our snipers are on, the defense will be forced to expand the pack.  Second is to lob a pass over the post defender to the pivot.  

Archie ran this defense successfully when he was at Dayton.  It didn't work as well at Indiana, as the opponents outmatched the defense.  If we are shooting a decent percentage from the arc, and if Okoro/Forrester can handle lobs, we will be fine.  His Rams have had moderate success with this defense to date.  Their problem is they can't score.

[VeniceMenace]

3 hours ago, BigMouthBilliken said:

If Bills favored by 12 that means they may win by a squeaker. Losing by 4 more likely

If Rhode Island plays anything like they did vs Dayton, guarantee SLU loses. They are well coached.

[Box and Won]

9 hours ago, VeniceMenace said:

If Rhode Island plays anything like they did vs Dayton, guarantee SLU loses. They are well coached.

Back when Dayton had Brian Gregory, they always seemed beatable, regardless of the talent disparity between their roster and ours.  I fear other programs in the A10 probably look at us that way now.

[Cowboy II]

1 hour ago, Box and Won said:

Back when Dayton had Brian Gregory, they always seemed beatable, regardless of the talent disparity between their roster and ours.  I fear other programs in the A10 probably look at us that way now.

-wow, great take

[wgstl]

11 hours ago, VeniceMenace said:

If Rhode Island plays anything like they did vs Dayton, guarantee SLU loses. They are well coached.

Eh.  No, they are not good. but doesn't mean they cant "upset" a team especially when at home like they were with UD.  

They have a record of 0-7 on the road this year. 

[BANGheGOTit]

26 minutes ago, wgstl said:

Eh.  No, they are not good. but doesn't mean they cant "upset" a team especially when at home like they were with UD.  

They have a record of 0-7 on the road this year. 

Yet this Billiken squad seems to always find the one or two ways to lose games they should win.  

[HoosierPal]

2 hours ago, Box and Won said:

Back when Dayton had Brian Gregory, they always seemed beatable, regardless of the talent disparity between their roster and ours.  I fear other programs in the A10 probably look at us that way now.

Just looked up Gregory at Dayton.  He was 172-94 overall and got the Flyers into the NCAA twice in 8 years. I looked up our record against his Flyers and we were 6-8.

[Bay Area Billiken]

Line per cbssports.com: SLU -11.5, o142.5. 
 

[Taj79]

The Rhodey eye test:

Rhode Island is 8 and 14 (4 and 6 in conference) for a reason:  lack of depth.  Their frontlien bigs are freshmen and sophomores and hail from France, Canada and France.  Two, Bilau and Foumena don't even play.  Bilau has played in 8 games and is out for the season with knee surgery.  Foumena isn't listed as having played a game yet; must be redshirting.

That leaves sophomore Alex Tchikou as the only big on the roster.  He started last game and is average about 4 ppg.  The front is weak.

Ish Leggett remains their leading scorer.  The 6'3" sophomore is at just over 16 ppg.  He is their leading volume 3 point shooter and hits at a 1 in 3 clip.  Brayon Freeman, the 6'2" sophomore transfer from Geedubya, is their second leading scorer at about 14 ppg.  In a previous thread, I noted he drives, drive and then drives some more.  Jalen Carry was their thiord leading scorer at about 10 ppg but is listed as questionable for tonight's game.  Replacing his 10 ppg will be a tall task for the Rams.  Sebastien Thomas is a fourth decent guard but he is much liek Yuri --- pass first.  Brandon Weston is a nice looking 6'5" freshman guard who is coming on.  That is a big enough stable to throw at Collins and harass him all over the place.

The only big of any repute on the roster is 6'6" super senior Malik Martin, who leads the team in rebounding.  The former Charlotte transfer is undersized at 6'6" but does battle on the boards.  The only guy left is 6'8" freshman Abdou Samb.  

I haven't seen a lot of Rhodey basketball; even I can only take so much bad basketball.  But they did put a hurt on Dayton in Kingston to the tune of 75 to 70.  They were downright amazing down the stretch as Dayton mounted a furious comeback.  But they made the shots, some of the miracle variety.  Dayton gets this as the premier A10 team especially when they go on the road.  They also beat Fordham in Kingston so miracles can happen.  But usually at home.  They are currently 0 and 5 in conference play on the road but with a win here or there, might avoid the PIG.  Unlikely.

[The Wiz]

First of all ...what a great and gutsy shot by Jimerson at the end for the game winner....especially with his earlier struggles from the arc....for the night 55% from 3...good time to heat up....Also nice shooting by Hargrove and Okoro ...both hitting a FG% of 63% ...Hargrove misses a dou dou by 1 reb...and finally ...Yuri breaks the A10 record for career assists....Nice game all around ...sloppy but nice

We finally beat a team called the Rams. We won because we pretty much did what we were supposed to do....Let's call this a nice average game as you will see by the numbers

Let's take a quick look at the numbers...bolded from the original post.

Make the slash.........................46/35/75...almost....  44/40/67...missed one 2 and 2 FTs=4pts more....

.................................btw take a look at the RI slash......44/42/63...another reason the game was close was  they shot 3s way over their average...Stewart who only had four 3s in 17 games and shooting 19% from the arc and 1.4pts /gm goes 3-3 from the arc and scores 11pts...another guy who has a career night against us.

beat them on TOs by 2....Lost by 2 but close enough to win the game but not make the spread

Out rebound them...Bingo again...we did by 1...you will note,  there was no number on the rebs ...we were supposed to beat them by 1

70 pts against us...71 close enough

No second chances for RI missed shots...only 6 pts ...this was good...we had 11pts.... a game difference maker

Bother them and they will turn the ball over...we did and they did...16 times

Hold their  top 2 guys Leggett and Freeman to 25 pts combined...this was a miss but not because we didn't guard them...they just took lots of shots...they only had a FG% of 38%...but they exceeded the pt target because they took 26 shots....not to mention Leggett had 14 FTAs

So nice win ...but why did we miss the spread if most of the numbers came in right?  Too many TOs.  I mentioned above we made the TO differential of 2 ..which is what we needed to do to win....but we still turned the ball over too many times...Pts off TOs by RI 24 pts...again too many....we had 16 TOs...had we had  4 less the spread would have widened by 9 pts ...we win by 14 and we make the spread . You may ask , what difference does this make...we won.  True, but this stat is mainly for the NET watchers. Want to move up the NET...beat the spread.

On to Dayton.....

 

 

[Bay Area Billiken]

For all 3 “Rams” games, the Billikens had issues standing prosperity, had difficulties shaking the various Rams, were one big possession and made shot from taking control of all 3 games, especially Fordham and URI. But last night vs. URI, SLU overcame the opponent at the pinnacle of crunch time, when it mattered the most. SLU’s 69-61 lead had become a 71-71 tie, fueled in part by a lucky URI banked 3 (That guy didn’t call bank). Ah, but this time Yuri found Jimerson. Jimerson gave a good shot fake and nailed the Huge 3, when the Billikens, when all believing, True Blue SLU fans, needed it most. Here’s hoping that huge shot is the turning point this team needs. 

[billikenbill]

Correction, they beat us on turnovers by 2. We had 16, Rhody 14.

[BANGheGOTit]

3 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

For all 3 “Rams” games, the Billikens had issues standing prosperity, had difficulties shaking the various Rams, were one big possession and made shot from taking control of all 3 games, especially Fordham and URI. But last night vs. URI, SLU overcame the opponent at the pinnacle of crunch time, when it mattered the most. SLU’s 69-61 lead had become a 71-71 tie, fueled in part by a lucky URI banked 3 (That guy didn’t call bank). Ah, but this time Yuri found Jimerson. Jimerson gave a good shot fake and nailed the Huge 3, when the Billikens, when all believing, True Blue SLU fans, needed it most. Here’s hoping that huge shot is the turning point this team needs. 

If Jimmerson misses that shot are we talking about Jimmerson missing or are talking about the 3 or 4 straight hero ball possessions by Yuri to close out the game?